As Turkey sees its largest protests in more than a decade, the world gazes on. The demonstrations came after the jailing of Istanbul’s mayor, a prominent opposition figure and a possible opponent of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2028 elections, Ekrem Imamoglu. Many are now wondering if these protests will threaten Erdogan’s rule or drive Turkey deeper into authoritarianism.
Turkey’s political dynamics impact its own future as well as the course of global affairs. The country is also critical to several global challenges, from the war in Ukraine and relations with the West to Middle Eastern politics, Central Asian influence and Balkan energy markets.
Turkey has long pursued a delicate balance in its relations with Russia even though it is a NATO member. The Turkish leader has even forged a working relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, given their shared authoritarian governing style. Yet Turkey has still provided military support for Ukraine. The Turkish defense company Bayraktar has provided drones that were integral to Ukraine’s early defense efforts, and another drone factory is under construction in Ukraine.
Turkey’s foreign policy is driven largely by economic interest, experts note. Ihor Semyvolos, director of the Center for Middle East Studies in Kyiv, says Turkey’s take on Russia, Ukraine and the region is determined by business potential. A factor in Turkish foreign policy in the future may well depend on who leads the country, Erdogan or Imamoglu.
Simultaneously, Turkey’s relationships with the United States have become complex. Erdogan has tried to lower tensions with Washington, especially over U.S. sanctions imposed in 2020 over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. Recent meetings between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio focused on economic and security cooperation in various spheres.
Western leaders are torn: Should they denounce Erdogan’s domestic policies or emphasize security and economic cooperation with Turkey? The future of U.S.-Turkey relations, as well as relations between Turkey and the EU, will be greatly determined by the internal political developments within the country.
And yet despite such disputes, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, recently insisted that Turkey’s internal political situation is “an internal matter,” suggesting that Tehran does not want to wade directly into the fray. Analysts say Erdogan’s plant more authoritarian style is in keeping with Iran’s regional vision, while the opposition would likely pursue a more Western-friendly, democratic agenda.
Turkey geographically possesses great strategic value. It has sovereignty over the Bosphorus Strait, an important maritime maneuver. In the first weeks of the Ukraine war, Turkey shut the Bosphorus to Russian warships, hampering Moscow’s military operations in Syria.
And Turkey has been heavily involved in Syria’s civil war, backing opposition forces and seizing land in northern Syria. It gives Turkey leverage to define the region’s future and gives it a card to play in international diplomacy over its involvement in Syria.
Turkey hopes to present itself as an alternative to Russian dominance in the area. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, there have been fears that Russia might extend its military focus to Central Asia, especially in regions with large Russian-speaking populations. In response, Turkey has ramped up military and economic relations with these countries, including joint army exercises and greater arms trade in non-Russian markets.
Turkey has also been a major player in redirecting trade routes away from Russia, according to Assel Tutumlu, a regional specialist at the Near East University in Cyprus. Much of Central Asia’s trade with Europe went through Russia before the war. But Western sanctions have hastened moves to establish alternative routes through Azerbaijan and Turkey. A trade route connecting China to Europe and bypassing Russia, the Central Corridor has become a major priority for regional leaders.
Along with energy, Turkey has been boosting its economic investments in the Balkans. It is a leading investor in Serbia, where it has thrown out ambitious infrastructure plans like the Belgrade-Sarajevo highway. Turkey has secured drone deals with Bosnia and Albania, enhancing its presence in the region as well.
Turkey’s political dynamics impact its own future as well as the course of global affairs. The country is also critical to several global challenges, from the war in Ukraine and relations with the West to Middle Eastern politics, Central Asian influence and Balkan energy markets.
The War in Ukraine
Turkey has been a key player in diplomacy since Russia’s war against Ukraine began. It successfully brokered a grain deal between Russia and Ukraine that enabled vital grain exports to flow to nations in Africa and the Middle East that rely heavily on them. This deal lasted a year before Russia pulled out, yet the West still clamors for a revival of it.Turkey has long pursued a delicate balance in its relations with Russia even though it is a NATO member. The Turkish leader has even forged a working relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, given their shared authoritarian governing style. Yet Turkey has still provided military support for Ukraine. The Turkish defense company Bayraktar has provided drones that were integral to Ukraine’s early defense efforts, and another drone factory is under construction in Ukraine.
Turkey’s foreign policy is driven largely by economic interest, experts note. Ihor Semyvolos, director of the Center for Middle East Studies in Kyiv, says Turkey’s take on Russia, Ukraine and the region is determined by business potential. A factor in Turkish foreign policy in the future may well depend on who leads the country, Erdogan or Imamoglu.
Relationship with the EU and United States
Economically, the EU is Turkey's largest trading partner and represents nearly a third of Turkey's total trade. But Turkey’s EU accession process was frozen in 2018 amid worries about democratic backsliding. Would Imamoglu come to power, he would likely work to revive talk of EU membership. Even with Erdogan in power, Turkey could still move closer to Brussels, especially as the EU pursues military independence from the US. With Turkey's powerful military, it could play a role in European security.Simultaneously, Turkey’s relationships with the United States have become complex. Erdogan has tried to lower tensions with Washington, especially over U.S. sanctions imposed in 2020 over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. Recent meetings between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio focused on economic and security cooperation in various spheres.
Western leaders are torn: Should they denounce Erdogan’s domestic policies or emphasize security and economic cooperation with Turkey? The future of U.S.-Turkey relations, as well as relations between Turkey and the EU, will be greatly determined by the internal political developments within the country.
Influence in the Middle East
Turkey has a complicated relationship with the Middle East, especially with regard to Iran. The two nations often spar over regional matters, especially Syria. Whereas Iran is an ally of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey is a supporter of the opposition fighting against him. Turkey is also Azerbaijan’s ally in its war with Armenia, which has angered Tehran.And yet despite such disputes, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, recently insisted that Turkey’s internal political situation is “an internal matter,” suggesting that Tehran does not want to wade directly into the fray. Analysts say Erdogan’s plant more authoritarian style is in keeping with Iran’s regional vision, while the opposition would likely pursue a more Western-friendly, democratic agenda.
Turkey geographically possesses great strategic value. It has sovereignty over the Bosphorus Strait, an important maritime maneuver. In the first weeks of the Ukraine war, Turkey shut the Bosphorus to Russian warships, hampering Moscow’s military operations in Syria.
And Turkey has been heavily involved in Syria’s civil war, backing opposition forces and seizing land in northern Syria. It gives Turkey leverage to define the region’s future and gives it a card to play in international diplomacy over its involvement in Syria.
An Expanding Reach in Central Asia
Farther afield, Turkey has spent years extending its reach into Central Asia. Four of the region’s countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — speak Turkic languages, and all except Turkmenistan are members of the Organization of Turkic States, which also includes Azerbaijan.Turkey hopes to present itself as an alternative to Russian dominance in the area. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, there have been fears that Russia might extend its military focus to Central Asia, especially in regions with large Russian-speaking populations. In response, Turkey has ramped up military and economic relations with these countries, including joint army exercises and greater arms trade in non-Russian markets.
Turkey has also been a major player in redirecting trade routes away from Russia, according to Assel Tutumlu, a regional specialist at the Near East University in Cyprus. Much of Central Asia’s trade with Europe went through Russia before the war. But Western sanctions have hastened moves to establish alternative routes through Azerbaijan and Turkey. A trade route connecting China to Europe and bypassing Russia, the Central Corridor has become a major priority for regional leaders.
Balkan Energy & Economic Power
Turkey is also a key player in southeastern Europe, especially in energy. Gas flows through Turkey to countries like Hungary, Romania and Serbia. The TurkStream pipeline, which connects Russia, Turkey and the Balkan region, has now become the only pipeline delivering Russian gas to Europe.Along with energy, Turkey has been boosting its economic investments in the Balkans. It is a leading investor in Serbia, where it has thrown out ambitious infrastructure plans like the Belgrade-Sarajevo highway. Turkey has secured drone deals with Bosnia and Albania, enhancing its presence in the region as well.
