Turkey's President Erdogan gives green light to Sweden's NATO bid

[Yawm al-qiyāma]

The point is moot. Cyprus will never allow Turkey in EU unless Turkey withdraws troops from Northern Cyprus.

Cyprus, Greece, France and many more members will never allow it.

 

[MeFishToo]

Experts react: Erdogan just agreed to support Sweden’s NATO bid. What does that mean for Turkey, Sweden, and the Alliance?​

By Atlantic Council experts


Now that’s an opening act. On the eve of the NATO Summit in Vilnius, and after more than a year of twists and turns, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Monday that he would push forward Sweden’s accession into NATO. The announcement came after a meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, with NATO agreeing to enhance its counterterrorism work to address Turkey’s security concerns and Sweden agreeing to back Turkey’s European Union (EU) membership bid. Erdoğan, for his part, agreed to push for ratification of Sweden’s accession in its legislature. With Hungary expected to follow suit, the path to Sweden’s entrance into the Alliance could soon be clear.


Below, Atlantic Council experts weigh in on what’s behind this dramatic and consequential turnabout from Erdoğan and what to expect next.


Click to jump to an expert analysis:


Rich Outzen: Inside Erdoğan’s calculus


Anna Wieslander: Sweden gets out of limbo as the Alliance shows a united front


Christopher Skaluba: Don’t spike the football just yet


Rachel Rizzo: Both sides gain in this geopolitical tit-for-tat


Daniel Fried: Did Erdoğan sense Putin’s weakness?


Ian Brzezinski: Sweden makes the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake—and seals the Vilnius summit’s place in history

---

Inside Erdoğan’s calculus​

I am mildly surprised that this comes before and not during the Summit, which convenes Tuesday, but overall it makes sense. It is a typical Erdogan move to take a maximalist position in a high-stakes negotiation, show readiness to walk, then compromise for progress on key demands.


It’s the wrong question to ask, “What pushed Erdogan to do this?” Because it underestimates the degree of strategy he and his advisors have applied—and misreads their original intent. Erdogan and the Turks have long said publicly and privately that they favor NATO enlargement. They have supported Ukraine and Georgia in the past, approved Finland this past year, and would like to see Sweden in—if the notoriously lax Swedish counterterror laws, now amended, are fully implemented. Turkey wants a big NATO because by NATO structure and bylaws Erdogan gets a veto on the world’s most powerful security organization—as do all members. The bigger the better. Yet the nature of the enlargement matters greatly for a country with a serious terrorism threat. So the better question is: Did Erdogan get what he thinks he needs on his own security needs, regarding the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and a potential F-16 fighter jet deal with the United States, to advance Sweden’s candidacy? What was the quid pro quo?


It’s important to remember that Erdogan’s announcement was not approval of the bid; it was a statement of intent to pass the question of approval to the Turkish parliament, which Erdogan’s party controls. Thus he retains the ability to kill or delay accession if Sweden backs off on counterterror implementation, or if the United States reneges on the F-16 deal. So all in all, he has lost no real leverage, but gained a tremendous optic of Turkey supporting the Atlantic Alliance.


This removes the question of Swedish accession from the summit’s main agenda, and places it in the category of “business successfully managed.” Thus the summit can focus on two more pressing issues: how to support Ukraine and how to implement NATO’s revised security concept. I would expect that on the first topic (Ukraine) we will see a roadmap or statement of principles that lays out robust military support for Ukraine’s defense, amounting to a security guarantee, but carefully calibrated not to constitute a near-term prospect of accession, an escalation, or an engagement of NATO as an organization in the current defensive war against Russia. On the second topic (security concept), there will be technical progress on how to divide responsibilities and resources more equitably, but this will likely be of less interest to general audiences.


I think this has less to do with the mutiny of Yevgeniy Prigozhin and perceptions of Vladimir Putin’s standing than with the leverage game vis-a-vis NATO allies and how to ensure that if European NATO problems become Turkish problems, Turkish problems become European NATO problems. Ankara will continue to conduct a balancing act by which it maintains trade, diplomatic relations, and occasional strategic cooperation with Russia—while ensuring that together with other NATO powers Turkey disabuses Russia of its dreams of imperial revanche. Putin, Prigozhin, Wagner—in Turkish eyes these are all just layers of the Russian Matryoshka or Maskirovka, deceptive games that obscure a fairly direct power play. The Turks need a functional relationship with Russia but see more common cause with the West; the approach to Sweden should be seen in those terms, as how to prove bona fides to the Western Alliance while extracting necessary concessions to their own security.


As to quid pro quo, for Turkey, it can be only two things—counter-PKK commitments by Sweden, and agreement on F-16s (and perhaps broader strategic engagement) by Washington. Anything else is peripheral, and if these are not obtained, the deal is a bad one for Ankara. Of course there is an escape hatch—Erdogan passed the ball to the Turkish parliament and approved nothing directly—but the pieces are in place now for a good transactional deal that helps NATO, Sweden, and Turkey in a stroke.


—Rich Outzen is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council IN TURKEY.

Sweden gets out of limbo as the Alliance shows a united front​

Finally Sweden got its green light from Turkey to join NATO. Late in the evening in Vilnius, Stoltenberg called July 10, 2023, “a historic day.” The agreement between Sweden, Turkey, and NATO that was signed on Monday evening means that Sweden will join the Alliance as its thirty-second member “as soon as possible,” given that the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments need to ratify the accession protocol.


It is unclear how long it will take, but the agreement undoubtedly removes the risk of Sweden falling into a limbo situation—that is, being close to, but not fully in, the Alliance. Sweden´s military and political adjustments toward NATO membership can proceed with full speed, which is beneficial not only for Sweden, but for the defense of Northern Europe, in which Sweden could play a crucial role.


The green light also facilitates Finland’s integration as a new member, since the security and defense of the two Nordics is heavily interlinked. As Finnish President Sauli Niinistö stated: “Finland’s NATO membership is not complete without Sweden.”


For NATO, the deal means that the Vilnius Summit is off to a good start. As twenty-nine allies already have ratified Sweden’s accession, NATO otherwise faced the risk of appearing fragmented and weak. Lack of progress could put the credibility of NATO’s “open door” policy at risk, since the Alliance also has to make some tough decisions on Ukrainian membership.


Turkey managed to push Sweden and NATO to take a step forward on counterterrorism measures, and in the end, Erdoğan also put the EU into the mix. Sweden’s decision to support Turkish ambitions to get the European Commission to restart the accession process appeared to seal their NATO agreement. Whether Turkey will also get to purchase the long-sought F-16 fighter jets from the United States remains to be seen. But then, the summit has not even started and US President Joe Biden has yet to arrive.


—Anna Wieslander is the director for Northern Europe and head of the Atlantic Council’s Northern Europe office in Stockholm.

Don’t spike the football just yet​

While my instinct tells me that it would be difficult for Erdoğan to backtrack on an agreement he has seemingly made in good faith, recent history provides a cautionary tale. Just over a year ago on the margins of the Madrid Summit, glasses were clinking on what most observers assumed would be a straightforward process for admission once Turkey joined consensus in inviting Finland and Sweden to become members. Yet Erdoğan knew he had a second bite at the apple. He took the accolades in Madrid, only to run Sweden through the paces for another year before another dramatic set of negotiations in Vilnius, where he once again demanded the spotlight before conceding. If he moves with alacrity to push the ratification through the Turkish parliament, skeptics can be reassured. But there is non-zero chance that some intervening circumstance (like another public Quran burning) could serve as pretext for derailing the process again. I want to be optimistic, but worry that I have seen this movie before. NATO should not spike the football until it is over the goal line.


—Christopher Skaluba is the director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

Both sides gain in this geopolitical tit-for-tat​

For months, NATO leaders have been working behind the scenes to broker this agreement between Turkey and Sweden. It’s important to tip our hats to Stoltenberg, Biden, and other leaders who exerted diplomatic pressure to see this through. This is a classic example of a geopolitical tit-for-tat: Erdoğan using his strategic position—as a member of NATO but also straddling the East and West—to extract concessions from Sweden that both bolster his power at home and demonstrate to the broader NATO Alliance that they need him. It also gives both sides something they want: Erdoğan gets to look like a statesman, and Sweden appears on track to finally get its NATO membership. It will be interesting in the coming days to follow reports of what took place behind closed doors over the last few weeks, days, and even hours, and what was actually on offer for Erdoğan to create this shift. He wouldn’t have changed his tune if he didn’t see this move as in his interests. Next up: Be sure to watch the US-Turkey F-16 space closely.



—Rachel Rizzo is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.

Did Erdoğan sense Putin’s weakness?​

While it’s only speculation, the Prigozhin mutiny and the Kremlin’s uncertain response (Prigozhin at liberty in Russia, not in exile in Belarus; Prigozhin’s meeting with Putin) suggest regime weakness. Erdoğan’s reaction to the failed 2016 coup in Turkey showed no such mixed messages. Erdoğan might have concluded that betting on Putin after the mutiny seemed less wise.


We won’t know what the United States might do with respect to F-16 or other military sales to Turkey. If there were an understanding, the details will become clear in coming weeks. Whether a possible deal is a good deal depends on the details. But the practice of international relations is not an art for the purist. Erdoğan’s decision to support Sweden’s (and Ukraine’s) NATO accession is a big deal and worth advancing. If the Biden team made some understanding, I would look favorably on it.


Sweden will bring to the Alliance military capacity (though it will need to build more), political savvy, and good geography. Sweden will help with the defense of NATO’s eastern flank countries and the Baltic Sea. Having worked with Swedish diplomats for many years, I believe they will also be excellent partners in forging NATO consensus and a sustainable, strong policy toward Russia.


—Daniel Fried is the Weiser Family distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former US ambassador to Poland.

Sweden makes the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake—and seals the Vilnius summit’s place in history​

Assuming Erdoğan’s announcement is followed by expeditious approvals from the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments, it will be one of the key substantive and geopolitically significant deliverables of NATO’s Vilnius summit. Sweden’s accession will bring to the Alliance real military capability, reinforce its transatlantic outlook, and above all, bring into the Alliance’s ranks a new member determined to fulfill its military responsibilities. Sweden’s membership will complete the transformation of the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake, thereby strengthening the security and military stability of North Central Europe.


—Ian Brzezinski is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy.

Experts react: Erdogan just agreed to support Sweden’s NATO bid. What does that mean for Turkey, Sweden, and the Alliance?

Atlantic Council experts weigh in on what’s behind this dramatic and consequential turnabout from Erdoğan and what to expect next.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Here you go @jhungary

Turkey will support Sweden's bid for NATO, if Sweden supports Turkey's bid for EU.

So I was right afterall. Seriously!

It is also on Al Jazeera as well.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If EU embraces Turkey, Ankara to back Sweden’s NATO bid: Erdogan​

Turkish president says EU should open the way for his country to join the bloc before Ankara approves Sweden’s NATO membership.

Erdogan wants Sweden to crack down on groups that Ankara considers national security threats before Turkey agrees to its NATO membership[File: Umit Bektas/Reuters]
Published On 10 Jul 202310 Jul 2023

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he would back Sweden’s NATO candidacy if the European Union resumes long-stalled membership talks with Ankara.
“First, open the way for Turkey’s membership in the European Union, and then we will open it for Sweden, just as we had opened it for Finland,” Erdogan said in a televised media appearance on Monday before departing for the NATO summit in Lithuania.

Keep reading​

list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3

Biden ‘anxiously looking forward’ to Sweden joining NATO​

list 2 of 3

Turkey’s Erdogan defies pressure over Sweden’s NATO application​

list 3 of 3

Erdogan tells NATO chief Sweden must stop Kurdish protests​

end of list
The Turkish leader said he told the same thing to US President Joe Biden when the pair spoke by phone on Sunday.
Erdogan also said Sweden’s accession hinges on the implementation of a deal reached in June last year during the alliance’s summit in Madrid.
Turkey wants Sweden to crack down on groups that it considers national security threats, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units, or YPG, which Ankara considers the Syrian branch of the PKK.
Ankara also wants Stockholm to extradite suspects whom it calls “terrorists” and lift an arms ban it has imposed on Turkey. Erdogan said no one should expect compromises from his government.

Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership last year, abandoning their policies of military non-alignment due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. New members require approval from all NATO countries, and Finland was given the green light in April.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that while he supports Ankara’s EU membership, as far as he was concerned, Sweden had already met the conditions required to join NATO.
“It is still possible to have a positive decision on Sweden in Vilnius,” Stoltenberg told a news conference.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also said Turkey’s stance is a positive development.

Sign up for Al Jazeera​

Week in the Middle East​

Catch up on our coverage of the region, all in one place.

Please check your email to confirm your subscription
By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy
“I hope that soon Sweden will be able to become a NATO member,” Scholz said in Berlin.

“This is what I’m taking as the positive message from the Turkish president’s comments.”
Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from Istanbul, said Sweden argues that Turkey’s requests cannot be decided by the government’s executive branch but by the judiciary.
“However, Erdogan says that this is a security matter and, despite positive steps, PKK supporters still hold demonstrations [in Sweden] and this is not acceptable,” he said.

EU talks frozen​

Turkey first applied to become a member of the European Economic Community, a predecessor to the EU, in 1987.
It became an EU candidate country in 1999 and formally launched membership negotiations with the bloc in 2005.

The talks stalled in 2016 over European concerns about human rights violations in Turkey.

“I would like to underline one reality,” Erdogan said. “Turkey has been waiting at the EU’s front door for 50 years.”
“Almost all the NATO members are EU members. I now am addressing these countries, which are making Turkey wait for more than 50 years, and I will address them again in Vilnius.”
Patrick Ruby, a defence analyst, said there is increasing pressure on Turkey from numerous parties in the military alliance led by Biden.
“It looks like so far Turkey has not shifted yet” towards backing Sweden’s membership, he told Al Jazeera.
“Of course, the longer they hold it, the more they can extract.”
The White House, which has also supported Turkey’s EU aspirations, said those discussions are a matter between Turkey and the bloc’s 27 members.

“Our focus is on Sweden, which is ready to join the NATO alliance,” a White House National Security Council spokesperson said.
A European Commission spokesperson said NATO and EU memberships were “separate processes” that “cannot be linked”.
Ankara’s delays on Sweden’s accession have exasperated other NATO allies, including the US.
On Sunday, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said Biden and Erdogan had spoken about Sweden’s NATO membership and had agreed to meet in Vilnius for further talks.
He added that the White House is confident Sweden will join the alliance.

“If it happens after Vilnius – we’re confident it will happen,” he said.
“We don’t regard this as something that is fundamentally in doubt. This is a matter of timing. The sooner the better.”
Source: Al Jazeera and news agencies

‘Turkey waiting at EU’s front door for 50 years,’ Erdogan says

Turkish president says EU should open way for his country to join bloc before Ankara approves Sweden’s NATO membership.

www.aljazeera.com

@MeFishToo , you said Erdogan is lying. Al Jazeera confirms the deal that I quoted from Erdogan.

You moron. lol.

​

Let me remind you what you initially said:

Now EU should let Turkey in it, I guess.

Good for Turkey's development.

Exactly what do you expect Sweden should do to “let Turkey in”?
All your quotes are speculation. EU decides wether the accession talks should restart or not.
This is what the press statement says:
Sweden will actively support efforts to reinvigorate Türkiye’s EU accession process, including modernisation of the EU-Türkiye Customs Union and visa liberalisation.

And trust me, Turkey is never going to be part of EU. Some say because of Greece and Cyprus, but I am pretty sure Turkey cant find a single EU country who actually support the idea of Turkey being part of EU.
Notice how they disrupt NATO? Do you think the EU plans to be taken hostage by Turkey too?

 

[Yawm al-qiyāma]

Just letting you know that Erdogan is lying, or that he didnt say exactly that.


Courts are not ruled by politicians, so what do you want the swedish prime minister to do about it?

Courts go by the laws and the laws can be updated or reformed. Laws are not the gospel they can be changed.

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Cyprus, Greece, France and many more members will never allow it.

If Turkey gets into EU, it could be good for Turkey, it will develop Turkey.

BUT: Many EU countries see EU as a Christian club. Thats the problem. lol.

Let me remind you what you initially said:

Exactly what do you expect Sweden should do to “let Turkey in”?
All your quotes are speculation. EU decides wether the accession talks should restart or not.
This is what the press statement says:
Sweden will actively support efforts to reinvigorate Türkiye’s EU accession process, including modernisation of the EU-Türkiye Customs Union and visa liberalisation.

Did you read my two articles (the one of Al Jazeera), you joker?

It says Erdogan will support Sweden's entry in NATO IF Sweden supports Turkey's entry in EU.

Like seriously, do you know how to read?

 

[Yawm al-qiyāma]

If Turkey gets into EU, it could be good for Turkey, it will develop Turkey.

BUT: Many EU countries see EU as a Christian club. Thats the problem. lol.

Honestly i think if ever Turkey joins EU which is impossible but if it ever happens that will be the end of both EU and Turkey as there will almost remain no Turk in Turkey. Turks will mass immigrate to Europe and population of Turkey will drop to 10 million thats means Turkey is finished but also EU will be finished with 70 million new citizens.

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Honestly i think if ever Turkey joins EU which is impossible but if it ever happens that will be the end of both EU and Turkey as there will almost remain no Turk in Turkey. Turks will mass immigrate to Europe and population of Turkey will drop to 10 million thats means Turkey is finished but also EU will be finished with 70 million new citizens.

Then why is Erdogan pushing for EU membership. Is all this just a joke. lol.

 

[Yawm al-qiyāma]

Then why is Erdogan pushing for EU membership. Is all this just a joke. lol.

Erdogan aims high (EU membership) but this is out of the question and he knows it. Meanwhile his real goal is to fix visa free travel and costums union. Especially the costums union is important it will tremendously improve the overall Turkish economy due to increase of its exports to EU.

 

[MeFishToo]

If Turkey gets into EU, it could be good for Turkey, it will develop Turkey.

BUT: Many EU countries see EU as a Christian club. Thats the problem. lol.


Did you read my two articles (the one of Al Jazeera), you joker?

It says Erdogan will support Sweden's entry in NATO IF Sweden supports Turkey's entry in EU.

Like seriously, do you know how to read?

actively support efforts to reinvigorate Türkiye’s EU accession process
Do you know what this means? Its a process that would lead to Turkey reforming. What Sweden agreed to do was to support this process to restart.
Erdogan might aswell ask Sweden to support a Turkey without him as leader.

 

[nahtanbob]

If Turkey gets into EU, it could be good for Turkey, it will develop Turkey.

BUT: Many EU countries see EU as a Christian club. Thats the problem. lol.


Did you read my two articles (the one of Al Jazeera), you joker?

It says Erdogan will support Sweden's entry in NATO IF Sweden supports Turkey's entry in EU.

Like seriously, do you know how to read?

You keep telling Erdogan says this Erdogan says that. Who is the hell is he ?

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Erdogan aims high (EU membership) but this is out of the question and he knows it. Meanwhile his real goal is to fix visa free travel and costums union. Especially the costums union is important it will tremendously improve the overall Turkish economy due to increase of its exports to EU.

You could be right. But I will go by what is reported by the news agencies.

You keep telling Erdogan says this Erdogan says that. Who is the hell is he ?

He is the leader of Turkey, you idiot. Erdogan is not just any ordinary person, he is the leader of his country, you moron!

 

[Yawm al-qiyāma]

You could be right. But I will go by what is reported by the news agencies.


He is the leader of Turkey, you idiot. Erdogan is not just any ordinary person, he is the leader of his country, you moron!

So you believe Turkey will enter EU?

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

So you believe Turkey will enter EU?

Its possible, But EU is really a Christian club. lol.

 

[313ghazi]

Ahead of the NATO summit, the Turkish president had said his country would support Sweden's bid to join NATO if the European Union opened membership talks for Turkey.

Brussels quickly reiterated that joining NATO and joining the EU are two very different procedures. But EU Council president, Charles Michel, later tweeted that the Union's relations with Turkey have been “re-energised".

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Ahead of the NATO summit, the Turkish president had said his country would support Sweden's bid to join NATO if the European Union opened membership talks for Turkey.

Brussels quickly reiterated that joining NATO and joining the EU are two very different procedures. But EU Council president, Charles Michel, later tweeted that the Union's relations with Turkey have been “re-energised".

If Turkey doesn't get EU membership after this, I think Turkey should join SCO instead.

Turkey has been asking for EU membership for a very long time. Sometimes I wish Turkey would ditch EU.

But I think that Turkish member is right, Turkey is trying to get Free Visa and Customs Unions atleast. It would be good for Turkey's development.

 

[nahtanbob]

You could be right. But I will go by what is reported by the news agencies.


He is the leader of Turkey, you idiot. Erdogan is not just any ordinary person, he is the leader of his country, you moron!

so what ?? You make it sound like Turkey is a superpower