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Turkey pushes alternative to G20’s India-Middle East trade corridor plan


Turkey pushes alternative to G20’s India-Middle East trade corridor plan​

Ankara seeks to emphasise its traditional role as a route for goods moving from Asia to Europe

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Turkey is in “intensive negotiations” over its alternative to the India-Middle East trade corridor plan that was agreed at this month’s G20 summit, as the country seeks to bolster its historic role as a transport route for goods moving from Asia to Europe.Ankara has pushed back against the proposed India-Middle East route that would transport goods from the subcontinent through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel to European markets. The mooted corridor, backed by the US and EU as they attempt to repel China’s growing influence, would completely bypass Turkey.Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey, said after the G20 that “there can be no corridor without Turkey”, adding “the most appropriate route for trade from east to west must pass through Turkey”.His foreign minister Hakan Fidan has since doubled down on the scepticism, insisting this week that “experts had doubts that the primary goal [of the India-Middle East corridor] was rationality and efficiency” and suggesting “more geostrategic concerns” were at play.“

A trade route does not only mean meeting trade alone. It’s also a reflection of geostrategic competition,” Fidan said in response to a question from the Financial Times.Turkey is keen to emphasise its traditional role as a bridge between east and west, a history that dates back centuries to the silk roads.Ankara has instead touted an alternative called the Iraq Development Road initiative, with Fidan insisting “intensive negotiations” were under way with Iraq, Qatar and the UAE about a project that would be forged “within the next few months”.Map showing the planned Middle East transport corridorsThe proposed $17bn route would take goods from the Grand Faw port in oil-rich southern Iraq through 10 Iraqi provinces and into Turkey, according to diagrams released by the Baghdad government.The plan would rely on 1,200km of high-speed rail and a parallel road network. The scheme has three phases, with the first aiming for completion in 2028 and the last in 2050.

Analysts, however, say there are concerns over the feasibility of the Development Road project on financial and security grounds.“Turkey lacks the financing to realise the full scope of the project, and seems to be counting on UAE and Qatari support to build the proposed infrastructure,” said Emre Peker, Europe director at the Eurasia Group think-tank. “For that to happen, the Gulf states would need to be convinced of good returns on investment — something that is not imminently evident with the [Development Road] project.”Peker added there are also “issues around security and stability that threaten both construction and the long-term feasibility of the project”.Iraq is blighted by rampant corruption, decaying infrastructure, weak government and regular bouts of political instability. It is also not clear how Iraq will finance the project.

Analysts and western diplomats have also noted the proposed G20 corridor could also be decades in the making, if it materialised at all.Turkey has sought to straddle the strategic line between west and east by attempting to maintain strong relations with the US and EU, and also Russia and China. The approach has at times stoked tensions with the west. This week, for example, two Turkish companies were hit with US sanctions for allegedly aiding Russia’s war against Ukraine.Ankara has generally been supportive of China’s Belt & Road initiative, Peker added, but he said its role in the scheme has been limited. Beijing has made about $4bn in investments in Turkey through Belt & Road, accounting for just 1.3 per cent of the total, according to a recent study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Murat Yeşiltaş, director of foreign policy studies at Seta, a think-tank with links to Erdoğan’s government, said that despite the alternative proposal, Ankara could yet push to join the India-Middle East initiative.

Erdoğan may get an opportunity to make his case as soon as next week, if he meets with US counterpart Joe Biden on the sidelines of next week’s UN General Assembly.Yeşiltaş said in addition to making a case about Turkey’s convenient geographical location for trade, the country can also flex its influence in the region, particularly after its recent warming of relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.“Turkey wields considerable political influence in the region [and is] capable of facilitating trade negotiations and resolving disputes among the countries participating in the corridor,” Yeşiltaş said.Additional reporting by Funja Güler in Ankara
 
Shipping by rail costs somewhere around three times as much as by ship, but it’s faster, which makes it viable for shipping food in the US. Shipping by truck is ten times more expensive, but can overcome more natural barriers (mountains) and get to a specific town faster on the final leg of a journey, which maybe what part of the Indian back route may require coming out of the Greek port.

China is building a rail route through the Balkans, specially in Serbia. The balkans are not going to give up their trans-shipment market share, and be bypassed as well, so they will through their lot in with the Turks
The economic powerhouses of Europe are Germany, France and Italy. The cheapest route would have been one that terminated on a German port, but that is not practical. Instead, the final port(s) will be in Italy/southern France.

Another basic problem in involving Turkey is that you cannot build a route to Europe through Turkey if Europe doesn't want it. Without Erdogan, Turkey might already have been part of the EU, but that ship has failed. Erdogan has damaged relations with the West too much for the EU and the US to provide him further leverage over them.
 
The economic powerhouses of Europe are Germany, France and Italy. The cheapest route would have been one that terminated on a German port, but that is not practical. Instead, the final port(s) will be in Italy/southern France.

Another basic problem in involving Turkey is that you cannot build a route to Europe through Turkey if Europe doesn't want it. Without Erdogan, Turkey might already have been part of the EU, but that ship has failed. Erdogan has damaged relations with the West too much for the EU and the US to provide him further leverage over them.
The EU doesn’t want Europe’s borders to be with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Europe also doesn’t want a Muslim majority country with 80+ million people having voting powers in “European” affairs. That’s why Turkey was not allowed into the EU, not because of Erdogan. Turkey is like Mexico is for the US, a good business partner but still beyond the pale on key matters, regardless of leadership.

The European freight railways are already in place, so it’s not about the ports but the final destination. A ship landing in marseille will still have to offload its cargo and that cargo will have to go by rail or truck up to Germany.

As I stated in an earlier post, Iraq expects its railway connection to Turkey and its initial portion of its Persian gulf port to be ready in early 2024, so we will see soon enough if any cargo will actually be shipped via this route.

The key are what routes the shipping companies, suppliers and customers want to use, until the forces of economics dictate which routes are economical. This whole debate is about east west trade that wants to get around the Suez Canal. Currently, Why would anything other than trade to and from India be effected? Until ASEAN is linked, this is an Indian specific route. The sooner China creates a rail links with ASEAN and with Pakistan, and puts pressure to block a rail link between Myanmar and India, the sooner this route can be shown to be unviable.
 
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The EU doesn’t want Europe’s borders to be with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Europe also doesn’t want a Muslim majority country with 80+ million people having voting powers in “European” affairs. That’s why Turkey was not allowed into the EU, not because of Erdogan.
This is an imaginative conjecture, but contrary to the facts. EU signed a customs union with Turkey 30 years ago and officially became a candidate for EU membership about 25 years ago. At that time, there was strong, though not unanimous support for Turkey's accession. Croatia applied for membership after Turkey became a candidate and is already a member and other states which applied for membership much later are also in advanced negotiations. Turkey's application is frozen and the deteriorating relations due to the policies of the current government are the major reason.
The European freight railways are already in place, so it’s not about the ports but the final destination. A ship landing in marseille will still have to offload its cargo and that cargo will have to go by rail or truck up to Germany.
You yourself said ships are much cheaper than road transport. What is the advantage of going to Paris via Turkey and the Balkans instead of through Marseille and Lyon ? Aside from the cost, the more countries you add to the route, whether in Asia or Europe, the higher the political risk. Forget the Middle East. The Balkans are not exactly known for geopolitical stability either. And some country on the route has to put up the capital. None of them has a particular surplus of capital.
As I stated in an earlier post, Iraq expects its railway connection to Turkey and its initial portion of its Persian gulf port to be ready in early 2024, so we will see soon enough if any cargo will actually be shipped via this route.

The key are what routes the shipping companies, suppliers and customers want to use, until the forces of economics dictate which routes are economical. This whole debate is about east west trade that wants to get around the Suez Canal. Currently, Why would anything other than trade to and from India be effected?

Until ASEAN is linked, this is an Indian specific route.
It connects three large economic zones of India, western Europe and GCC + Israel and has the US as a strategic sponsor. It is viable on its own and even if it were not, the participating countries plus the US don't lack the funds to build it only for strategic reasons.
The sooner China creates a rail links with ASEAN and with Pakistan, and puts pressure to block a rail link between Myanmar and India, the sooner this route can be shown to be unviable.
Myanmar will not want to put all its eggs in the Chinese basket. Like every other country, it will want to maximize its leverage. And India has been incredibly accommodative of the military junta despite pressure from the West.

The Chinese route from ASEAN to Pakistan is pure fantasy at this point. The Pakistani economy is not large enough to justify it on a standalone basis and there is no guarantee it can be extended westward. Is there even any rail connectivity between China and Pakistan, the two iron brothers, at this time ? What will be the route ? Who will pay for it ?
 
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The project is not economic and is merely to integrate Israel and the Gulf as a system subordinate to America and the Israeli leaders of the Gulf states.
America and Israel will also work to implement it, but these lines are easily destroyed by groups affiliated with Iran and Palestinian and Syrian groups. Will railway lines be passed in a hostile environment for the benefit of a state that has implanted peoples who reject them for the sake of the continuation of non-democratic regimes in the Emirates and Saudi Arabia? And this is the corridor. Objections against it have appeared in Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and also China. The interests of these countries will converge against this Israeli-Emirati project.

The project is without any feasibility studies. The cost of transportation is several times higher than sea transportation
The time period for transporting goods is also longer due to unloading in the UAE ports, then loading on the railway, then moving by railway for a distance of 2,500 km, then loading in the Israeli ports.
The Gulf countries and Israel have 55 million people, which is a trivial number as future markets. Egypt, for example, has 113 million people.
The project will stimulate counter-projects, for example, linking southern Egypt and western Egypt with a railway network and a pipeline network.

Egypt has the Greater Levant Project to link Iran to Egypt via Iraq and Jordan, and also to establish Egyptian logistics cities in Jordan for export to Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon at a lower cost.

Iranian and Turkish commercial agreements and industrial cities will be established in Egypt, just as India is investing in Egypt in Egyptian economic cities in the Suez Canal, which will turn into a very large free zone that will make India’s ideas about this corridor useless to it.
Countries like Egypt will expand in attracting investments from Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia in Egyptian industrial cities as a better way than these failed corridors.

Egypt is already working on a network of electric railways from South Sinai to North Sinai as shorter corridors for the new industrial zones in Sinai and to connect with Jordan and Iraq in the Mediterranean.

Railway connectivity with Sudan, Chad and Libya will be accelerated

There will be reactions from the major countries in the Middle East, Egypt, Iran, and Turkey. Competitive alliances will be created to crush the new Israeli-Gulf alliance.

The Gulf and Israel want to create a new corridor, while others are close to completing their projects at a lower cost, faster, and without political problems.

Saudi Arabia will pay $415 billion to connect to railways and a network of oil, gas and hydrogen pipelines, and to transfer data via a land cable. The return will be uneconomical, but it will benefit American companies that will get their cake from it. The Saudis will eventually discover that they spent money without return. This reminds us of Qatar, which spent 300 billion to host the Media Cup. Then I gained revenues of 3 billion and lost 297 in countries that are not suitable for tourism because they do not have any advantages or anything that attracts tourism except an extreme climate that is not suitable for living in for most people.
That is, simply a politically rejected project from China, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Palestine, Syria
Zero economic feasibility
Political risks, risks of bombing and continuous destruction, on the contrary, will be a means of pressure
Energy transfer: Hydrogen production projects in countries like Egypt are faster and more mature than Gulf dreams. Egypt is already investing $120 billion in producing green hydrogen and producing electricity from wind turbines and solar energy, while Saudi Arabia and the Emirates’ projects will require a longer time.
With oil change, the climate has become catastrophic, and therefore the income of the Gulf countries will shrink economically due to the world’s rejection of fossil fuels during the next ten years due to the great environmental risk.

Even if the project is approved by America and India for the trade and economic wars against China, everyone forgets that China is victorious over America and plans better than it. It is natural for America to propose a project and China easily fails it.
 


Turkey pushes alternative to G20’s India-Middle East trade corridor plan​

Ankara seeks to emphasise its traditional role as a route for goods moving from Asia to Europe

View attachment 954191

Turkey is in “intensive negotiations” over its alternative to the India-Middle East trade corridor plan that was agreed at this month’s G20 summit, as the country seeks to bolster its historic role as a transport route for goods moving from Asia to Europe.Ankara has pushed back against the proposed India-Middle East route that would transport goods from the subcontinent through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel to European markets. The mooted corridor, backed by the US and EU as they attempt to repel China’s growing influence, would completely bypass Turkey.Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey, said after the G20 that “there can be no corridor without Turkey”, adding “the most appropriate route for trade from east to west must pass through Turkey”.His foreign minister Hakan Fidan has since doubled down on the scepticism, insisting this week that “experts had doubts that the primary goal [of the India-Middle East corridor] was rationality and efficiency” and suggesting “more geostrategic concerns” were at play.“

A trade route does not only mean meeting trade alone. It’s also a reflection of geostrategic competition,” Fidan said in response to a question from the Financial Times.Turkey is keen to emphasise its traditional role as a bridge between east and west, a history that dates back centuries to the silk roads.Ankara has instead touted an alternative called the Iraq Development Road initiative, with Fidan insisting “intensive negotiations” were under way with Iraq, Qatar and the UAE about a project that would be forged “within the next few months”.Map showing the planned Middle East transport corridorsThe proposed $17bn route would take goods from the Grand Faw port in oil-rich southern Iraq through 10 Iraqi provinces and into Turkey, according to diagrams released by the Baghdad government.The plan would rely on 1,200km of high-speed rail and a parallel road network. The scheme has three phases, with the first aiming for completion in 2028 and the last in 2050.

Analysts, however, say there are concerns over the feasibility of the Development Road project on financial and security grounds.“Turkey lacks the financing to realise the full scope of the project, and seems to be counting on UAE and Qatari support to build the proposed infrastructure,” said Emre Peker, Europe director at the Eurasia Group think-tank. “For that to happen, the Gulf states would need to be convinced of good returns on investment — something that is not imminently evident with the [Development Road] project.”Peker added there are also “issues around security and stability that threaten both construction and the long-term feasibility of the project”.Iraq is blighted by rampant corruption, decaying infrastructure, weak government and regular bouts of political instability. It is also not clear how Iraq will finance the project.

Analysts and western diplomats have also noted the proposed G20 corridor could also be decades in the making, if it materialised at all.Turkey has sought to straddle the strategic line between west and east by attempting to maintain strong relations with the US and EU, and also Russia and China. The approach has at times stoked tensions with the west. This week, for example, two Turkish companies were hit with US sanctions for allegedly aiding Russia’s war against Ukraine.Ankara has generally been supportive of China’s Belt & Road initiative, Peker added, but he said its role in the scheme has been limited. Beijing has made about $4bn in investments in Turkey through Belt & Road, accounting for just 1.3 per cent of the total, according to a recent study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Murat Yeşiltaş, director of foreign policy studies at Seta, a think-tank with links to Erdoğan’s government, said that despite the alternative proposal, Ankara could yet push to join the India-Middle East initiative.

Erdoğan may get an opportunity to make his case as soon as next week, if he meets with US counterpart Joe Biden on the sidelines of next week’s UN General Assembly.Yeşiltaş said in addition to making a case about Turkey’s convenient geographical location for trade, the country can also flex its influence in the region, particularly after its recent warming of relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.“Turkey wields considerable political influence in the region [and is] capable of facilitating trade negotiations and resolving disputes among the countries participating in the corridor,” Yeşiltaş said.Additional reporting by Funja Güler in Ankara
Arabs and their love for Israel...cousins. lanat of Allah upon them both
 
This is an imaginative conjecture, but contrary to the facts. EU signed a customs union with Turkey 30 years ago and officially became a candidate for EU membership about 25 years ago. At that time, there was strong, though not unanimous support for Turkey's accession. Croatia applied for membership after Turkey became a candidate and is already a member and other states which applied for membership much later are also in advanced negotiations. Turkey's application is frozen and the deteriorating relations due to the policies of the current government are the major reason.

You yourself said ships are much cheaper than road transport. What is the advantage of going to Paris via Turkey and the Balkans instead of through Marseille and Lyon ? Aside from the cost, the more countries you add to the route, whether in Asia or Europe, the higher the political risk. Forget the Middle East. The Balkans are not exactly known for geopolitical stability either. And some country on the route has to put up the capital. None of them has a particular surplus of capital.



It connects three large economic zones of India, western Europe and GCC + Israel and has the US as a strategic sponsor. It is viable on its own and even if it were not, the participating countries plus the US don't lack the funds to build it only for strategic reasons.

Myanmar will not want to put all its eggs in the Chinese basket. Like every other country, it will want to maximize its leverage. And India has been incredibly accommodative of the military junta despite pressure from the West.

The Chinese route from ASEAN to Pakistan is pure fantasy at this point. The Pakistani economy is not large enough to justify it on a standalone basis and there is no guarantee it can be extended westward. Is there even any rail connectivity between China and Pakistan, the two iron brothers, at this time ? What will be the route ? Who will pay for it ?

Erdogan is mortal, so he won’t be in office forever, yet the chancellor of Austria said there were no prospects of Turkey ever joking the EU.

Certain goods, usually carried as air cargo, are only viable if they are delivered in a timely manner, such as by refrigerated rail car. For example, Non-GMO foods spoil fast enough that sea transport may not be viable.

Most of the rail infrastructure in Europe is already built or is under construction; Belgrade-Budapest railway was just recently built.

At present, just like the start of the G20 rail route starts in India, and cargo from Pakistan would be from Central Asia when the trans-afghan rail route is built, which will connect to China and ASEAN. It is the long way around, but if it becomes viable, the Tibetan railway can be extended and the China-Pakistan railway can then be build with sustainability in mind. China does more business in Myanmar than anyone else, so we will have to wait to see how develops.
 
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Erdogan is mortal, so he won’t be in office forever, yet the chancellor of Austria said there were no prospects of Turkey ever joking the EU.
Yes, the relationship has deteriorated a lot but 25 years ago there was enough support to grant Turkey candidate status. All other countries granted candidate status have either been accepted into the EU or are in various stages of negotiations. Turkey is the only case where negotiations have been frozen. The hope had been that the carrot of membership would have incentivized Turkey to come closer to the EU positions, but the opposite has happened.

Erdogan may not live forever but he is a popularly elected leader and his views reflect the majority opinion of Turks. It is unreasonable to assume there would be a radical change in Turkish public opinion under his successor.
Certain goods, usually carried as air cargo, are only viable if they are delivered in a timely manner, such as by refrigerated rail car. For example, Non-GMO foods spoil fast enough that sea transport may not be viable.

Most of the rail infrastructure in Europe is already built or is under construction; Belgrade-Budapest railway was just recently built.
I am not sure how refrigerated food is relevant here. Are you suggesting Thailand would export food to France through refrigerated rail going through China, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and the Balkans ? And this would justify building the rail link you are suggesting ?
 
Israel is the closest ally of US, EU and India in the region.
Israel is small, vulnerable, unstable. Future wars against Israel are possible. Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Palestinians, Armenia and more.. all have been terrorized by these colonists and the bill could be shown to Israelis at any moment. It's not the old Israel anymore...world is changing, balance of power is shifting, there is no more one way direction hit and run.
 
Yes, the relationship has deteriorated a lot but 25 years ago there was enough support to grant Turkey candidate status. All other countries granted candidate status have either been accepted into the EU or are in various stages of negotiations. Turkey is the only case where negotiations have been frozen. The hope had been that the carrot of membership would have incentivized Turkey to come closer to the EU positions, but the opposite has happened.

Erdogan may not live forever but he is a popularly elected leader and his views reflect the majority opinion of Turks. It is unreasonable to assume there would be a radical change in Turkish public opinion under his successor.

I am not sure how refrigerated food is relevant here. Are you suggesting Thailand would export food to France through refrigerated rail going through China, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and the Balkans ? And this would justify building the rail link you are suggesting ?

Thailand exports egg and poultry to Europe. Mostly to neighboring countries, but they do some business in that category with Europe.

Air cargo is expensive, but exports of flowers for example could be done quick enough with a train, and considering it’s not meant to be edible, some spoilage wouldn’t be as much an issue.

If rail freight is fast enough, transporting meat and seafood can be a large market from ASEAN countries.

But let’s start with simple things, and like you said linking two large markets. Let’s link china with the GCC. China already has a high speed line to Urumqi that is underutilized. Now if that line is extended down to Gwadar through Pakistan it can take over some of the air cargo between the two counties. Another products that may not be safe to transport by ship but can be by rail (because the rail car can be detached) is the transport of EV vehicles or lithium-ion batteries in large quantities. As demand goes up, chances of fires go up as well.

For Pakistan this would be the real CPEC. Pakistan may not be a large economy like Egypt with Suez or Panama with its canal, but its share of trans-shipment makes it valuable.

P.S. Physical integration of Chinese supply chains and manufacturing will help Chinese companies weather some of the demographic issues they are facing. When in 2050, there will be nearly 400 million Pakistanis, the labor pool and consumer market will help the Chinese consumers correct itself.
 
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Geo-strategic influence. The new Iraqis elite also want to enjoy the finer things in life, which is why Alstom will be building their $17 billion rail route as well as a metro system in Baghdad. Giving the contract to a French company and long term management contracts can help pave the way for the French not making a stink about cargo coming to Europe, passing through Iraq and Turkey.

Furthermore, all petro-states are diversifying away from oil, Iraq with its mountainous north can use its new influence to build up other industries, and keep the Kurds satisfied with the central government.

Finally, and very crucial for Iraq, influence with Turkey will press Turkey to release Iraqi water. See the YouTube videos of Turkey dancing up the rivers that flow into Iraq. This will be crucial for whole country but especially the Sunni tribal areas in central and western Iraq that may not be fully responsive to the central government in Baghdad.

Folks with hydrocarbon reserves do no worry about these things. They already have.
It is the ones without them that spend countless cycles trying to be relevant

The EU doesn’t want Europe’s borders to be with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Europe also doesn’t want a Muslim majority country with 80+ million people having voting powers in “European” affairs. That’s why Turkey was not allowed into the EU, not because of Erdogan. Turkey is like Mexico is for the US, a good business partner but still beyond the pale on key matters, regardless of leadership.

The European freight railways are already in place, so it’s not about the ports but the final destination. A ship landing in marseille will still have to offload its cargo and that cargo will have to go by rail or truck up to Germany.

As I stated in an earlier post, Iraq expects its railway connection to Turkey and its initial portion of its Persian gulf port to be ready in early 2024, so we will see soon enough if any cargo will actually be shipped via this route.

The key are what routes the shipping companies, suppliers and customers want to use, until the forces of economics dictate which routes are economical. This whole debate is about east west trade that wants to get around the Suez Canal. Currently, Why would anything other than trade to and from India be effected? Until ASEAN is linked, this is an Indian specific route. The sooner China creates a rail links with ASEAN and with Pakistan, and puts pressure to block a rail link between Myanmar and India, the sooner this route can be shown to be unviable.

This route is not India specific. It allows Saudis to export crude via Jordan and Israel to Europe. Jordan and Israel was much easier to deal with than Turkey.
 
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