Trade deficit increased 100.6 percent YoY, thanks to brilliant policies of finance minister Shaukat Tareen

[Flight of falcon]

Only way forward is renewable energy to generate electricity, electric vehicles, cell phones and small machinery manufacturing, ban import of cars and manufacture at home ……

 

[Patriot forever]

Let's see. The current IMF program wanted short-term loan stocks to be replaced with longer-term ones to improve debt sustainability and relieve the burden on budgetary spending under the head of debt servicing. BTW, any source of the figure you shared? Wasn't primary account being in surplus a good thing?

Yes SBP is working on it for some time.

Primary account surplus is a good thing. It's basically government revenue minus expenditure ( when we add debt payment to it than its called fiscal deficit/surplus). It shows government fiscal discipline. Last year number was good and this FY its in surplus as well means government revenue is more than its expenditure ( July 2021 71.7b).

 

[Big_bud]

I am curious why nearly ever one mentions TEA and CHEESE and now DOG FOOD

Pakistan imports ~$45 m of TEA.
You could with considerable effort cut it by half saving $20 million

You cannot possibly be eating imported CHEESE of more $3 million
Making cheese is easy and you have one of the largest dairy industry

DOG FOOD may constitute $1 million as dogs probably eat a lot of scraps and lots of waste from abattoir's.

So you are looking at saving maybe $25 million out of a yearly deficit of $30.8 BILLION

That represents 0.0008% of your deficit

If you double and treble these quantities than they would barely make 0.01%

You are taking everything too literally, it was assumed people would get the gist. We need to make a list of substitutable imported items and tax them higher so that they loose their value. Same thing what India did with its auto industry. You guys drove tatas and bajajs for years so that local industry could grow. For Pakistan to maintain balance of payment we need to stop leakage of dollars on stupid things. Combined impact of small things is huge, also consider the combined impact of these things plus interest.

 

[Turingsage]

Same thing what India did with its auto industry. You guys drove tatas and bajajs for years so that local industry could grow.

Meh . I am not entirely certain but India would let only one company Hindustan motors to make 1 car called the Ambassador. It ACTIVELY hindered any one else from making auto's.
So for 40 years or more India rode in Ambassadors which was a copy I believe of a car produced in the medieval age by British Leyland.

All these new car factories with a large range of choices is thanks to Manmohan Singh's ( One of our finest PM ever ) liberalisation then avidly pursued by the BJP

 

[Norwegian]

All these new car factories with a large range of choices is thanks to Manmohan Singh's ( One of our finest PM ever ) liberalisation then avidly pursued by the BJP

You were extremely luck to have a macro economist at the proper moment. Pakistan never got that opportunity.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/reliving-the-landmark-1991-economic-reforms/article35547510.ece

Economic liberalisation in India - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Yes SBP is working on it for some time.

Primary account surplus is a good thing. It's basically government revenue minus expenditure ( when we add debt payment to it than its called fiscal deficit/surplus). It shows government fiscal discipline. Last year number was good and this FY its in surplus as well means government revenue is more than its expenditure ( July 2021 71.7b).

View attachment 782266

As I understand, primary deficit/surplus accounts for the funds a government is left within its coffers, barring debt repayment. So, once we factor in the debt servicing, our budget goes into a deficit.

Yes SBP is working on it for some time.

Primary account surplus is a good thing. It's basically government revenue minus expenditure ( when we add debt payment to it than its called fiscal deficit/surplus). It shows government fiscal discipline. Last year number was good and this FY its in surplus as well means government revenue is more than its expenditure ( July 2021 71.7b).

View attachment 782266

Does it mention the debt as a percentage of GDP being reduced to approximately 83%? The WB report explicitly stated that it increased in 2020 compared to 2019.

 

[MisterSyed]

Why are people acting like its governments fault.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

@Norwegian ?

 

[Big_bud]

Meh . I am not entirely certain but India would let only one company Hindustan motors to make 1 car called the Ambassador. It ACTIVELY hindered any one else from making auto's.
So for 40 years or more India rode in Ambassadors which was a copy I believe of a car produced in the medieval age by British Leyland.

All these new car factories with a large range of choices is thanks to Manmohan Singh's ( One of our finest PM ever ) liberalisation then avidly pursued by the BJP

You can always have people misusing laws. And unintended results of bad laws.

 

[Patriot forever]

As I understand, primary deficit/surplus accounts for the funds a government is left within its coffers, barring debt repayment. So, once we factor in the debt servicing, our budget goes into a deficit.

Does it mention the debt as a percentage of GDP being reduced to approximately 83%? The WB report explicitly stated that it increased in 2020 compared to 2019.

Yes that is true.

Public debt on declining trend, inflation to remain at around 8%, says Tarin

Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Shaukat Tarin said Tuesday that the country’s net public debt was on declining trend and reduced to 81.8 percent of debt-to-GDP ratio during the fiscal year 2020-21, expecting that it would come further down during the current fiscal year.

www.app.com.pk

Public debt is in around close to 40t. Our GDP is 47.7t as of June 2021.
This entails government domestic+foreign debt.

 

[AZ1]

We need to put taxes on imported useless shit! Pakistan can do without gazillions of imported goods! We even have 3 dozen kind of imported dog & cat foods when our balance of payment and debts are going haywire! Why? Just why?

cat/dog foods how much import bill that would be?

 

[Big_bud]

cat/dog foods how much import bill that would be?

Answered above already

 

[AsifIjaz]

I am curious why nearly ever one mentions TEA and CHEESE and now DOG FOOD

Pakistan imports ~$45 m of TEA.
You could with considerable effort cut it by half saving $20 million

You cannot possibly be eating imported CHEESE of more $3 million
Making cheese is easy and you have one of the largest dairy industry

DOG FOOD may constitute $1 million as dogs probably eat a lot of scraps and lots of waste from abattoir's.

So you are looking at saving maybe $25 million out of a yearly deficit of $30.8 BILLION

That represents 0.0008% of your deficit

If you double and treble these quantities than they would barely make 0.01%

Finally someone talking numbers. Gr8 post brother. However, I am afraid people will ignore the sound basis and will always look at the figures from under pmln or pti glasses.
Things tht make the deficit are unavoidable. We can only decrease or control it over more or less a decade while hopefully, our exports will also pick up by then.
E.g.
1. We can not rather have historically failed to produce/ extract oil... but we can refine crude oil and save a bit of money.
2. The chances of finding a sui gas size field are minute... but long term LNG contracts.. private terminals and storage is possible.
3. Olive plantation at the current rate means that olive oil production by 2025/6 wud be one of the highest in the world.
4. We need to ensure that some of the newly irrigated areas are declared for essential crops cotton..wheat..barely and soybean. Otherwise in a decade we will see them turning into housing colonies as well. Olive oil mixed with canola or sunflower will decrease cost.. improve health and decrease health budget as well.
5. Baby steps like tunnel farming for tomatoes.... Tea production from shinkiari.. exploring beat root for sugar production (less water required) and improving yield will reign in the inflation.

Miss any of the above... then u either need to be a oil producing country or a country with deep pockets. Otherwise we will be having a similar discussion probably every year no matter which party is in the center.

 

[Bilal9]

Don't want to poke my nose into Pakistani affairs, but Shaukat Tareen Sb. is among those named in the Pandora papers.

Not trying to be "Captain Obvious" here, but maybe some do not know...

Account Suspended

 

[Wikki019]

We have to wait and see, these are very uncertain times. Prices of all things related to energy have skyrocketed across the globe. It will take time to settle this dust.