Tough love: Modi’s raising Balochistan does not mean he has abandoned hopes of a historic peace with Pakistan
August 16, 2016, 2:00 am IST
Sreeram Sundar Chaulia in
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s open acknowledgement during the marquee occasion of Independence Day that he is receiving communications and wishes from the people of Balochistan, Gilgit and Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (Azad Kashmir) is a combative policy shift based on the logic that public counterattack is the best defence.
It reflects
a core nationalistic position in India that the latest prolonged spell of disturbances in the Indian-administered Kashmir Valley is linked to deliberate instigation by the Pakistani state. By mentioning three regions inside Pakistan that have active grievances and separatist movements,
Modi is effectively turning the tables and sending a warning to Islamabad that New Delhi can unleash tit-for-tat manoeuvres.
The more Pakistan campaigns internationally for the ‘freedom struggle’ in Kashmir Valley and acts as a self-appointed guardian of the rights of Kashmiris under so-called ‘Indian imperialism’, the greater the Indian Prime Minister’s resolve to put the ball back in the Pakistani court.
A definite new regional policy is on the anvil. This is revealed by Modi’s declaration on August 12 that “Part of kashmir under Pak is ours.” He added that his government would “take initiatives to develop contact with citizens of Azad Kashmir settled abroad” and also bring human rights violations in Balochistan to global attention. His remark that Pakistan was “killing its own people by fighter jets” and that it had no business preaching independence for Kashmir signifies that India will now purposefully escalate the costs of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and unrest in Kashmir Valley.
What the Indian Prime Minister did in a primetime national address on Independence Day is to drop hints of a pushback policy that may have numerous levers ranging from overt to covert. For years, Pakistan has been accusing India of fomenting insurgents in Balochistan via Afghanistan and Iran. India has plausibly denied involvement in the affairs of this restive western province of Pakistan, where a secular and resilient guerrilla rebellion has been raging on grounds of unfair exploitation of gas wealth and ethnic discrimination against minority tribes.
The scorched-earth counter-insurgency by the Pakistani army in Balochistan has killed tens of thousands of people in a “secret dirty war” with hardly any neutral witnesses or media presence permitted in the arid mountainous region. The degree of suppression of Baloch voices has drawn comparisons to the genocidal war waged by the Pakistani military against Bengali-speaking people of erstwhile East Pakistan in 1971.
While the level of the popular anger and secessionism in Gilgit and Azad Kashmir is not as intense as in Balochistan, these territories which used to be part of undivided Jammu & Kashmir before 1947 do seethe against their absence of autonomy and the second-class treatment they receive from Pakistan’s Punjabi elites who have repeatedly failed to win the trust of minorities.
To observe closely and to factor into strategy the alienation and resentment that the people of Balochistan, Gilgit and Azad Kashmir nurse toward Islamabad is natural for Modi, who aims to integrate Kashmir Valley fully into the national mainstream by elbowing out Pakistani interference. It is a geopolitical imperative to hold a card against a neighbouring country which is not altering its hostile behaviour.
Modi is not a militaristic hawk who revels in triggering a vicious cycle of insurgencies that could dismember Pakistan.
His basic instinct is still liberal and he hopes that Pakistan will eventually join him in his mission to integrate South Asia for economic cooperation and shared prosperity. In the first two years of his reign, he staked a lot of his personal capital and tried to talk economic interdependence and initiate dialogue with his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif.
But sadly, as the captured Pakistani terrorist Bahadur Ali recently confessed, the deep state of the Pakistani military-intelligence complex has reactivated its proxies to “take advantage of” the tensions in Kashmir Valley and restart the full-scale ‘freedom movement’ of the 1990s. Sensing this danger, Modi’s statecraft is shifting gear to squeeze Pakistan into a corner until it realises its folly.
Modi’s fervent desire to “turn the course of history” with Pakistan remains a noble one, but the path to that optimistic turn may be paved by the dark passage of tough love.
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My opinion:
Brace up Pakistan! If you can do it, we can do it too. You bring up Kashmir and we will add fuel to Balochistan issue- this is exactly what Modi meant, may be in more brusque words.
His reaction should not be a surprise to many, as this was in the offing. Pakistan's response to the attacks on our base, its reaction to the small scale violence in the valley, snubbing our HM during the SAARC meeting- it was asking for this kinda reaction.
Pakistan is at the verge of getting a new COAS, and going by Pakistan's history army has always maintained a control over the democratically elected government. Whoever the new COAS be, war is unlikely since Pakistan is in the process of weeding out "bad" terrorists.
So it has 2 options, one is to stop "showing" support to the rogue elements within India and accept the offer of peace. Two,get ready to face the music at all the international level conferences. Let me add, terror attacks around the world have only added to Pakistan's woes. Before it buckles under the international pressure, Pakistan should take up the first option and
cooperate.
Peace!
