Time for BD to buy J-10CE?

[Old School]

BD should only buy 'battle tested' high parformance flying machines aka aircrafts. Giving opportunities, they should lot for F-16/F-18 . If BD was a special ally , they should have gone for F-15 as it's export is highly regulated by the US Congress.

 

[Avicenna]

The aircraft BD chooses will demonstrate her foriegn policy for next 15 years at the minimum.

Given BAF is a decent sized airforce in the region... its capabilities will also demonstrate which direction this country is going...

For now the FACT remains... the current BD gov is keeping its appeasement policy going... which would mean no upgradge for BD armed forces in any meaningful manner... that might challenge Gangu hegemony in there.

Going the Chinese route would mean a firewall against GanguFacism....

Going with western would mean actual acceptance of GanguHegemony and indirect joining of ContainChina camp...

By buying from both.. BD can hope to assure some sort of neutrality...which is impossible in the region.

For now the current BD regime shall continue the policy of minimum defence spending.. as it has agreed with GanguFacistRegime... and will never act in ANY hostile manner to Gangu interests in the region!

Or... BD will directly go for F35 ? @Avicenna

Excellent assessment.

I agree completely.

This is the million dollar question and perhaps why this is taking so long.

I think BD wants to navigate between the two camps.

And it is increasingly more difficult for nations to do so.

So all we can do is wait.

Your guess as to which direction is as good as mine.

 

[UKBengali]

The aircraft BD chooses will demonstrate her foriegn policy for next 15 years at the minimum.

Given BAF is a decent sized airforce in the region... its capabilities will also demonstrate which direction this country is going...

For now the FACT remains... the current BD gov is keeping its appeasement policy going... which would mean no upgradge for BD armed forces in any meaningful manner... that might challenge Gangu hegemony in there.

Going the Chinese route would mean a firewall against GanguFacism....

Going with western would mean actual acceptance of GanguHegemony and indirect joining of ContainChina camp...

By buying from both.. BD can hope to assure some sort of neutrality...which is impossible in the region.

For now the current BD regime shall continue the policy of minimum defence spending.. as it has agreed with GanguFacistRegime... and will never act in ANY hostile manner to Gangu interests in the region!

Or... BD will directly go for F35 ? @Avicenna

How do you explain the 18 120km range Turkish T-300B MLRS systems that have just been brought?
Those are offensive weapons that could destroy the bulk of Indian military assets based around BD in war.
I think it is more a case of lack of funds and BAF incompetence as to why BAF has not yet ordered 4+ generation fighters than anything else.
The 2 Ming-35G subs are actually as good as the Kilos that India has and the Indians went mad(for real) but could do nothing to stop BD getting them.

 

[LKJ86]

How do you explain the 18 120km range Turkish T-300B MLRS systems that have just been brought?

Why should India take it seriously?

 

[UKBengali]

Why should India take it seriously?

Offensive system that could destroy a lot of Indian military targets near BD.

 

[LKJ86]

Offensive system that could destroy a lot of Indian military targets near BD.

Does it change the balance?

 

[LKJ86]

BD will buy again f-7BGIII the most modern f-7 on earth

No no no, FTC-2000G is the best version of J-7.

 

[mb444]

The aircraft BD chooses will demonstrate her foriegn policy for next 15 years at the minimum.

Given BAF is a decent sized airforce in the region... its capabilities will also demonstrate which direction this country is going...

For now the FACT remains... the current BD gov is keeping its appeasement policy going... which would mean no upgradge for BD armed forces in any meaningful manner... that might challenge Gangu hegemony in there.

Going the Chinese route would mean a firewall against GanguFacism....

Going with western would mean actual acceptance of GanguHegemony and indirect joining of ContainChina camp...

By buying from both.. BD can hope to assure some sort of neutrality...which is impossible in the region.

For now the current BD regime shall continue the policy of minimum defence spending.. as it has agreed with GanguFacistRegime... and will never act in ANY hostile manner to Gangu interests in the region!

Or... BD will directly go for F35 ? @Avicenna

Your assessment is far too simplistic.

BD no 1 priority is that economic growth is maintained. The main players are as follows.

Our biggest market for RMG is US, EU, canada and scandanavia. We are not going to jeopardise that.

Our manpower export primarily goes to saudi, uae, qatar and malaysia. All allied to the west.

Remitence comes in now mainly from gulf and malaysia with UK, US, Canada, EU from established BD diaspora.

Our cheif import of oil comes from UAE, Saudi and Qatar. Our import of machinery and raw material to support RMG comes from the west, ex soviet states and cotton from India.

The primary investors in BD is Japan and Korea, again west ally.

Sources of loan beyond international lending organisation comes primarily from China.

Major infastructure development partners are China, Japan and Russia.

All this makes BD west centric, any alignment with india is a byproduct of that. However China is critical as a development partner.

BD military doctrine is not an acceptance of indian hedgemon. If it was why bother, the resources could be diverted for economic development. BD military posture is an acceptance of our economic reality.

The future position will be status quo and maintaining balance whilst upgrading capacity in an economically viable fashion.

For BAF we are all hoping for a Western and Chinese mix.

I think and it is personal opinion based on personal judgement alone that the likely composition of fighter by 2025 in BAF will be as follows...

1 sqd of Mig up from current half a sqd...

1 sqd of EFT

2 sqd of J10 of whatever variant is available

So 4 sqd of effective frontline fighters is all we are likely to have backed up by F7s and at a more limited capacity the inexplicably large number of Yaks in our arsenal.

So BAF is not going to make any revolutionary moves and neither is BD as a whole. We will remain west centric and will balance all others.

 

[UKBengali]

Does it change the balance?

No less than if BD brought 36 J-10Cs in my opinion.
At least J-10C is defensive whereas T-300B can rain projectile after projectile deep into India from BD

You see people were saying a little while ago that India would "not allow" BD to have an offensive system like this and BD just goes and buys it.

The idea that BD needs "permission" from India to buy military equipment is fiction. It buys according to need and budget.

Not sure whether you missed my tag, but how much would you say for 36 J-10CEs, 3 KJ-500s and the associated infrastructure, maintenance, weapons and training?

 

[LKJ86]

The idea that BD needs "permission" from India to buy military equipment is fiction.

If BD wants to maintain good relations with India, you do have to consider something.

 

[UKBengali]

If BD wants to maintain good relations with India, you do have to consider something.

No, no, no.

BD can buy anything it wants from anyone willing to sell.

India needs BD like BD needs India. As long as BD does not work to breakup India then it is none of India's business.

 

[mb444]

If BD wants to maintain good relations with India, you do have to consider something.

If good relationship means subervience then off course that would not be acceptable in the long run.

BD is progressively expanding capacity.

In terms of your question did it change the balance of power. Karisga purchase at a stroke neutralised most of threat eminating from indian airbases near us. BAF had no capacity to counter the threat effectively. Now BA is able to render all these bases inefective.

This will mean IAF will have to operate from bases further away giving BAF more breathing room. We have purchased long range radars which along with yet to puchase long range missile system will reflect a credible defense.

BD up to now had minimal capacities. Its military doctrine was to fall back on guerilla tactics if overrun by indian forces. It is no longer that. We are aquiring capacity to ensure any indian misadventure is met with unacceptable costs. At the end of day when it really comes down to it ...can india defeat bangladesh now....yes with significant damage incurred to india itself......can having defeated BD militarily india maintain control over a nation of 165m. No it cant. Defeating BD militarily is one thing....maintaining the occupation will simply usher in an existential crisis for india. Indian threat to BD sovereignty is overblown, if india could have annexed us it would have in 1971 as it has done to sikkim, goa or recently kashmir.

 

[UKBengali]

If good relationship means subervience then off course that would not be acceptable in the long run.

BD is progressively expanding capacity.

In terms of your question did it change the balance of power. Karisga purchase at a stroke neutralised most of threat eminating from indian airbases near us. BAF had no capacity to counter the threat effectively. Now BA is able to render all these bases inefective.

This will mean IAF will have to operate from bases further away giving BAF more breathing room. We have purchased long range radars which along with yet to puchase long range missile system will reflect a credible defense.

BD up to now had minimal capacities. Its military doctrine was to fall back on guerilla tactics if overrun by indian forces. It is no longer that. We are aquiring capacity to ensure any indian misadventure is met with unacceptable costs. At the end of day when it really comes down to it ...can india defeat bangladesh now....yes with significant damage incurred to india itself......can having defeated BD militarily india maintain control over a nation of 165m. No it cant. Defeating BD militarily is one thing....maintaining the occupation will simply usher in an existential crisis for india. Indian threat to BD sovereignty is overblown, if india could have annexed us it would have in 1971 as it has done to sikkim, goa or recently kashmir.

Excellent analysis.

 

[LKJ86]

If good relationship means subervience then off course that would not be acceptable in the long run.

India takes some countries as its back yard.

It is not easy for BD to say no in reality.

 

[UKBengali]

https://www.china-arms.com/2019/11/j10ce-cheap-but-difficult-to-export/

Ok found something, this is the best we shall probably get without an actual sale.
So seems like it is around 40 million US dollars for the J-10CE plane, around half that of F-16V and 45% that of the Rafale.
Chinese weapons are also likely to cost around 1/2 that of Western ones.

So BD can probably get the full package I propose for 4 billion US dollars.
Totally affordable for BD but is the political will there?

@Avicenna
@mb444
@Bilal9