The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Jlaw]

Economics sanctions is a form of warfare waged by one country against another. The technical term is "economic warfare."

Russia wants Turkey's inexpensive food imports. Turkey controls access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Turkey is a country of 80 million consumers. Russia has only suspended (but not canceled) talks on the South Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey to Europe.

It is puzzling to me that there seems to be strong support among some Chinese for Russia.

I am neither pro- or anti-Russia. Similarly, I am neither pro- or anti-Turkey. I am simply objective.

An impassioned analysis shows that there had been no bridge connecting China to Russia for 25 years (since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989). I think a railway bridge between China and Russia is being built or recently inaugurated. Nevertheless, there is still no bridge for cars or trucks.

Furthermore, there is no oil or gas pipeline from Russia to China. However, there is plenty of Russia oil and gas pipelines to Europe and Turkey. For 25 years, the Russians decided they would only sell their oil and gas to Europe and Turks. China has to pay more for oil transported by rail cars.

Additionally, Russia was willing to give the Turks an 8% discount on gas sent to Turkey. In contrast, Iran played hardball with China and refused a 1.5% requested discount over a 30 year high-volume purchase. It is reasonable to assume that China requested an identical 1.5% discount from Russia. This was also refused by the Russians.

For the last 25 years, the Russians have given preferential trade privileges to Europeans and Turks. The Russians have played hardball with China.

China's economic allies are Turkmenistan, which currently supplies China with 30 bcm (ie. billion cubic meters) of gas via pipeline that is set to increase to 60 bcm in the next 3 years. Also, Kazakhstan is a reliable supplier of oil via pipeline. China has long-term contracts with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

In my view, China should use its political power on behest of Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan. The Russians are only being nice to China temporarily, because the Russians currently have disputes with all of its preferential trade partners. The Russians had been putting the economic screws to China for 25 years. They are hardly China's ally. Once the disputes are settled, the Russians will go back to favoring European and Turkish business partners.

For example, the steel gas pipelines for South Stream have already been built. The contractors were Germans and Japanese. None were Chinese. The Russians have excluded Chinese contractors from large Russian projects.

The Russian geopolitical strategy is pretty clear. Do everything possible to keep China weak. The Russians need China temporarily. However, the Russians have no intention of being China's dual partner. It is unwise for China to throw its weight forcefully behind Russia.

The better plan is to continue the long-term Chinese foreign policy. China remains neutral.

Yes. Agreed. I do not think China-Russia are natural allies in the long term. China have more overall interests with the west than with Russia.

 

[flist3773]

I categorically agree with Martian. I also don't understand blind faith and support for Russia from some Chinese members. Frankly, in my opinion, Russia is punching above its weight in geopolitical arena from a nation of mere $1 trillion USD GDP whose citizens are enjoying -10% in their real wages. Good thing is our diplomats are not emotional and always focus our interest first. I read many credible analysis on China - Russia gas contract that the terms are in favor of China (the contract itself is secret so no one knows for sure, but analysts with good track records all seem to agree that the terms of contract are in favor of China.

I think it is in China's national interest to develop far stronger tie with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan as well as other stans nations. Let Russia think Eurasian ECONOMIC Union can help her maintain grip on Central Asia. Let Russia spend $700 billions on modernizing her nuclear arsenals at the expense of ordinary citizens' living standards.

Also, some people say Russia will survive this sanction from EU and the USA. Well, sure.. unless Russia is annihilated by the US's nuclear first strike, it will survive. But at what cost?

@Martian2 Martian2, when are you going to post your analysis on Chinese semiconductor industry? So many things have occurred and I would like to know where China stands right now.

 

[TheTruth]

There is a third option. China can annex plenty of neighboring hostile countries if the West gets too aggressive. This will create buffer zones.

In any case, I see friendly Sino-Western relations for decades into the future.

The Russians are big enough and can protect themselves.

It seems illogical to me to lend Chinese power to another country when China's national interest (ie. red line) is not at stake.

Agree, but Turkey needs to pay a proportional price for their terrorism. It should be separate but China should recognize that Turkey has a lot of enemies, and make them suffer if they continue to sponsor Uyghur terrorists. Sanctions or direct military action would be premature, but rather proportional overtures to Turkeys many enemies with whom there are common interests should be made.

 

[Beidou2020]

China is surrounded by enemies from US, Japan, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia.

China's only friend is Russia. Countries like North Korea and Pakistan are liabilities, not assets for China.

The only saving grace for China is that there is a rift in Russian-Western relations. If Russia turned against China, China would be cornered from the north, east, south and west.

Without Russia, China is completely isolated. Western countries, Japan, India will never be China's true friends.

Without Russia, China would be way behind in military weapons and space program. Pretty much all the major weapons in China right now are Russian. West has banned weapons and space cooperation with China for a long time.

The West has already started its containment of China. Japan and India has joined their alliance.

Lose Russia as an ally, China would have a nightmare on its hands.

 

[TaiShang]

The reality is that Putin and his fellow Russian citizens are in a deep recession with no end in sight. Part of the blame is due to Russia's difficult foreign policy problems.

You cannot just look at the positive aspects of Russian foreign policy. You must also look at the cost. The cost is that Putin and all Russians face a difficult and uncertain economic future.

China has virtually unlimited amounts of money. In sharp contrast, Russia is about to go broke. Tell me again which country has the better foreign policy.

It just happened that Russia has been aggressively surrounded by the West and their allies. I do not see this as a weakness of Russian diplomacy. It just happens that Russia is at the center of Eurasian geopolitics militarily, and the West must subdue or at least cripple it.

China is strong and untouchable. But the perception is that its geopolitical strength lies in economy and a number of connectivity schemes. Hence the West appears to be bent on dealing with the military colossus that they see as a threat rather than the economic one.

It is just how history developed beyond anyone's power.

This almost ensures that Russia's and China's position toward the Western aggression would be different at the stage in appearance, although, in essence, I see both of them as revolutionary and emancipatory. Therefore it would be perhaps injustice to name Russia's economic woes without naming the geopolitical challenges it faces. It happens that, unlike China, Russia simply cannot put off the NATO threat at its doorsteps.

If something similar happens and West challenges China the way it challenges Russia now, I am sure, China's response would not be different because, both China and Russia are fiercely sovereign nations, as @Beidou2020 says.

Right now, I agree that, China's position is balanced, as you very analytically pointed out, and suits national interests. But, peace times are the best to get ready for war. That's the reason why China's military development, including island build-up, goes at full speed. Unfortunately, Russia does not have the same economic hinterland China enjoys, and this justifies the assistance China offers to Russia. Because, at the end of the day, China and Russia nurture a very very similar conceptualization of global governance. The fate of the two nations are sealed together. Hence the strategic partnership at the highest level.

I am confident in the high spirit and dignity of the Russian nation. This is make or break moment to ensure that the world is saved from US-led Western hegemony. There is no likelihood of a Russian defeat, for sure, it is the MAD option eventually, hence, Russia will go through this and, hopefully, the events will further prove the vibrancy and logic of China-Russia partnership.

By the way those lunatics were always supported and nurtured by the West with Operation Gladio in the last 40 years. Where were your country? Why didn't you support left in Turkey? We are walking in a very thin line here, they are supported by Gulf countries, by the West, by everybody. On contrary who supported leftists or seculars in Turkey? No one. You've sit there in Shanghai watched all the action while leftists were being hunted down in Istanbul. Now you are angry with Turkey because Turkey became very conservative and ultra nationalistic. What would you expect? I guess leftists and seculars were stubborn enough to get 35% of the votes(CHP+Other leftist movements).

Please all Chinese members here reply this. What would you expect without any support to democratic, progressive and leftist people in Turkey!?

Anytime Turkey is mentioned within the context of Uighur/radical Islamist terrorism, this point must be stressed over and over again -- that the country, by its founding principles, is actually peace-oriented, secular, and, proponent of social-democratic values. It still is home to a sizable progressive/secular population who are in fact paying a torturing, bloody price for their political stance.

I have studied 20th century revolutionaries, hence, within this context, Ataturk and his war of independence. This is the basis of my knowledge of Turkey. I can confidently say that, Ataturk ideas of public life, foreign policy, religion and progress is our contemporary.

The problem is that politics, and heck, the entire state has been hijacked by a very cunning radical Islamist clique who are hell-bent to destroy whatever remained of the values of the secular republic. It seem like a theater, literally, to the perennial struggle between reactionary and progressive forces. Turkey joined NATO under a government very similar to today's. They fought China in Korea under a government that politicized religion and sided with reactionary Western/regional forces.

For some reason, as Lure points out, Turkey's left/secular/progressives have not been given much international support. The West always sided with the reactionaries because they are more inclined to act as sold-outs for some distant ideology or material benefits.

We really need to keep things in greater perspective otherwise risk becoming a prey to the Western narratives. Uighur ethno-religious terrorism is real and the links to some Turkish radicals (including government officials) can be established, but still, there are millions that want a radical departure from such ethno-sectarian foreign policy but are simply over-powered. While taking every logical steps to harshly deal with threats to national security, China can still keep friendly relations with the progressives of Turkey. Even President Putin makes this distinction, which shows a high level of political consciousness.

 

[Lure]

While taking every logical steps to harshly deal with threats to national security, China can still keep friendly relations with the progressives of Turkey. Even President Putin makes this distinction, which shows a high level of political consciousness.

Thanks a lot. That was what I'm trying to explain for some time. The more foreigners say Turkey is a convervative/radical/fundementalist country the more they are getting stronger. Not the ones who can oppose them. Altough we are overpowered, as you say, we do still exist. And we are not that few. There are millions of people.

Let me give you an example what happened to Maoists in Turkey. After Sino-Soviet split Turkish left was also divided into two main camps. One of them was the Marxist-Lenist camp, and the second one was the Maoist camp. TİP (Turkish Worker's Party) was the political party of Maoist movement in 70's. 7 TİP supporter university students was executed cold blodedly by the same lunatics that are burning Chinese flag today.

Bahçelievler massacre - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Let me beriefly mention what happened back in 70's when Turkish left was much stronger. CHP was taking around 40% votes back then. I'm copying from Wikipedia,

Bülent Ecevit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Bülent Ecevit (leader of CHP back in 70's) recalled that he learned for the first time of the existence of Operation Gladio, a secret "stay-behind" NATO army, in 1974. He has also said he suspected "Counter-Guerrilla", the Turkish branch of Gladio, of responsibility for the 1 May 1977 Taksim Square massacre in Istanbul, during which snipers fired on a protest rally of 500,000 citizens, killing 38 and injuring hundreds. CHP defeated AP in the 1977 general elections by gathering 41% of the votes (the election came just after the events of 1 May). But with 213 seats out of 450 Ecevit could not receive a vote of confidence (see 40th government of Turkey). In 1978 Ecevit formed his third government (42nd government of Turkey). However, after a defeat in by-elections in 1979, he resigned.

Taksim Square massacre - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Ever since the Taksim Square Massacre, the fact that none of the perpetrators were caught and brought to justice has fueled allegations that the Turkish branch of Operation Gladio, the Counter-Guerrilla, was involved. One of the first persons to raise such allegations was the then leader of the opposition Bülent Ecevit. At a meeting in Izmir, he said on 7 May: "Some organizations and forces within the State, but outside the control of the democratic State of law, have to be taken under control without losing time. The counter-guerrilla is running an offensive and has a finger in the 1 May incident." Later he declined to comment on the incident, just like the then Prime Minister Süleyman Demirel. But in a confidential letter Demirel sent to Ecevit, he warned his rival that he might become the victim of the same circles, if he would speak at Taksim Square on 3 June 1977. The letter that was disclosed by Ecevit warned that shots might be fired from Sheraton (now the InterContinental) Hotel. The forces to conduct such an attack in order to spoil the stability of Turkey Demirel were suspected to be "illegal communist or terrorist organizations" or "foreign enterprises or international terrorist organizations" that had been encouraged by the incidents on Taksim Square on 1 May 1977.

Maoists were hunted down and assassinated, Worker's were shot with automatic rifles in Labour Day, leader of CHP -which is also the founding party of Turkish Republic and a 40% vote taking party back then- is threatened to be assassinated if he ever mentions Gladio. And whoever were to protect leftist/secularist and progressive people? I wish we had some type of agressive help instead of agressive insults from our eastern friends like Russians and Chinese back then.

I'm very thankful that just like Putin does, CPC also gives a sane response and doesn't alienate all of us.

By the way, let me finish with a funny story. Ultra nationalist groups in Turkey were protesting for Uyghur cause. In the mean time a Korean tourist group passes by them. Those idiots didn't even think for one second that from which nationality actually they could be and attacked Koreans thinking that they were attacking Chinese tourists. LOL.

Source : VIDEO: Turkish nationalists protesting China attack Korean tourists in Istanbul - POLITICS

Here is the leader of far right MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli's remarks about the issue :

Source : Koreans and Chinese 'both have slanted eyes,’ Turkey’s nationalist leader says over attacks on tourists - POLITICS

Yeap he didn't say attacking tourists is not a way protest or a shameful act and should be avoided. Instead he said "both Koreans and Chinese has slanted eyes, it's impossible to distinguish them". Which is of course pretty racist but he doesn't even know that he's being racist and very offending, I guess.

And the funniest one. Those crazies attacked a Chinese restaurant while protesting at another event. They've beaten the chef heavily. And they were right this time, chef was a Chinese citizen however he was an Uyghur Turk. LOL. Look at the irony here, they've beaten an Uyghur for supporting Uyghur cause.

Source : Istanbul Chinese restaurant attacked in protest at Uighur suppression - LOCAL

Those are the guys you(and we) are dealing with.

 

[Martian2]

China is surrounded by enemies from US, Japan, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia.

China's only friend is Russia. Countries like North Korea and Pakistan are liabilities, not assets for China.

The only saving grace for China is that there is a rift in Russian-Western relations. If Russia turned against China, China would be cornered from the north, east, south and west.

Without Russia, China is completely isolated. Western countries, Japan, India will never be China's true friends.

Without Russia, China would be way behind in military weapons and space program. Pretty much all the major weapons in China right now are Russian. West has banned weapons and space cooperation with China for a long time.

The West has already started its containment of China. Japan and India has joined their alliance.

Lose Russia as an ally, China would have a nightmare on its hands.

I think China has more options than you think.

1. Annex Mongolia (four Californias)
2. Annex Myanmar (Texas size)
3. Annex Vietnam (1,800 mile coastline)
4. Annex India (1/3rd the size of China and all tropical zone, which means four growing seasons per year)

At this point, China is almost twice its old size. It can hold out against the US for perpetuity.

 

[bsruzm]

Oh my god...

 

[Beidou2020]

A Child's painting from National Sovereignty and Children's Day in Turkey

View attachment 276893

Beautiful drawing

Shows the innocence of children.
It's very sad innocent children have to suffer due to the foolishness of adults.

 

[TheTruth]

Thanks a lot. That was what I'm trying to explain for some time. The more foreigners say Turkey is a convervative/radical/fundementalist country the more they are getting stronger. Not the ones who can oppose them. Altough we are overpowered, as you say, we do still exist. And we are not that few. There are millions of people.

Those are the guys you(and we) are dealing with.

I'll have to agree with you. It was always the enemies of Ataturk who have been our enemies also. Thanks for being sensible as usual. When dealing with the likes of atoiletwolf or bruszm you need massive, brutal force though, so my goal at least was to just get them as angry as possible in the hopes that they mess up their terrorist plotting and kill themselves. It is also unquestionable that the Uyghur are not natives to Xinjiang and any other interpretation of history is fanciful. So that lie must also be rejected strongly.

Regardless China ought to engage closer with most Muslims who simply want to live in peace. It should be the best weapon against shit-eating animals such as those Grey Wolves.

 

[Bilal.]

China is surrounded by enemies from US, Japan, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia.

China's only friend is Russia. Countries like North Korea and Pakistan are liabilities, not assets for China.

So Pakistan is a liability to China. Is China feeding us? Has China fought our wars? Does China need to step in to stop aggression against Pakistan? No. We are very much capable of all that and have been doing so... On the other hand Pakistan has resisted and failed encirclement of China in the early days, it helped bring US close to you when USSR turned against you and now is again helping you circumvent hostile countries with CPEC. Liability my foot.

I pray for China's sake that neocon wanna be like you are not representative of Chinese thinking in general.

 

[Beidou2020]

So Pakistan is a liability to China. Is China feeding us? Has China fought our wars? Does China need to step in to stop aggression against Pakistan? No. We are very much capable of all that and have been doing so... On the other hand Pakistan has resisted and failed encirclement of China in the early days, it helped bring US close to you when USSR turned against you and now is again helping you circumvent hostile countries with CPEC. Liability my foot.

I pray for China's sake that neocon wanna be like you are not representative of Chinese thinking in general.

Chillax bud.

Liability was the wrong word. What I was trying to point out is that Pakistan and North Korea are not as big an asset as Russia is for China. Of course Pakistan is a very important country to China.

Even if China had Britain, France, Germany and Japan as allies, I don't think those countries combined would be as big an asset as Russia would be for China.

You need one big and powerful ally instead of many medium powerful allies. China needs an ally with energy reserves, industrial metal reserves, very powerful military with a large nuclear arsenal, UNSC with veto power, independent foreign policy so it won't be coerced by foreign powers and also an ally that's next to China to transport those energy and metals without going through the seas.

 

[Brainsucker]

I think China has more options than you think.

1. Annex Mongolia (four Californias)
2. Annex Myanmar (Texas size)
3. Annex Vietnam (1,800 mile coastline)
4. Annex India (1/3rd the size of China and all tropical zone, which means four growing seasons per year)

At this point, China is almost twice its old size. It can hold out against the US for perpetuity.

Today is no longer the era of annexation. Plus, annexing a country is very-very expensive, and troublesome.

 

[meis]

Today is no longer the era of annexation. Plus, annexing a country is very-very expensive, and troublesome.

Having client state, puppet state, buffer state are still a cool thing to do tho.

I quite don't understand why some Chinese flag bearer are angry at Turkey , specially since Turkey and China are no where near each other

Turk trained and funded the Uyghur separatists.

 

[I S I]

Perfect example of "Begaani shaadi main abdullah deewana".