Jlaw
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Economics sanctions is a form of warfare waged by one country against another. The technical term is "economic warfare."
Russia wants Turkey's inexpensive food imports. Turkey controls access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Turkey is a country of 80 million consumers. Russia has only suspended (but not canceled) talks on the South Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey to Europe.
It is puzzling to me that there seems to be strong support among some Chinese for Russia.
I am neither pro- or anti-Russia. Similarly, I am neither pro- or anti-Turkey. I am simply objective.
An impassioned analysis shows that there had been no bridge connecting China to Russia for 25 years (since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989). I think a railway bridge between China and Russia is being built or recently inaugurated. Nevertheless, there is still no bridge for cars or trucks.
Furthermore, there is no oil or gas pipeline from Russia to China. However, there is plenty of Russia oil and gas pipelines to Europe and Turkey. For 25 years, the Russians decided they would only sell their oil and gas to Europe and Turks. China has to pay more for oil transported by rail cars.
Additionally, Russia was willing to give the Turks an 8% discount on gas sent to Turkey. In contrast, Iran played hardball with China and refused a 1.5% requested discount over a 30 year high-volume purchase. It is reasonable to assume that China requested an identical 1.5% discount from Russia. This was also refused by the Russians.
For the last 25 years, the Russians have given preferential trade privileges to Europeans and Turks. The Russians have played hardball with China.
China's economic allies are Turkmenistan, which currently supplies China with 30 bcm (ie. billion cubic meters) of gas via pipeline that is set to increase to 60 bcm in the next 3 years. Also, Kazakhstan is a reliable supplier of oil via pipeline. China has long-term contracts with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
In my view, China should use its political power on behest of Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan. The Russians are only being nice to China temporarily, because the Russians currently have disputes with all of its preferential trade partners. The Russians had been putting the economic screws to China for 25 years. They are hardly China's ally. Once the disputes are settled, the Russians will go back to favoring European and Turkish business partners.
For example, the steel gas pipelines for South Stream have already been built. The contractors were Germans and Japanese. None were Chinese. The Russians have excluded Chinese contractors from large Russian projects.
The Russian geopolitical strategy is pretty clear. Do everything possible to keep China weak. The Russians need China temporarily. However, the Russians have no intention of being China's dual partner. It is unwise for China to throw its weight forcefully behind Russia.
The better plan is to continue the long-term Chinese foreign policy. China remains neutral.
Yes. Agreed. I do not think China-Russia are natural allies in the long term. China have more overall interests with the west than with Russia.