The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Beidou2020]

Putin's Russia is also very weak.

The Russian foreign exchange reserves have fallen from about $550 billion to $350 billion. Russia is burning through its emergency cash pile.

Russia is in a sanctions war with Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine. You can now add Turkey to the list. This means the Russian economy will be stunted for many years to come. The standards of living in Russia have plummeted.

The Russian Ruble has lost half its value in two years (from 30 to 60 Rubles per US Dollar).

Russian budget cuts are devastating the Russian economy.

Putin is paying a very high price for his political agenda. While Putin's political gains are laudable (e.g. annexing part of Georgia and Crimea) from a Russian perspective, it is unclear whether Russia can hold on to those gains.

Thus, it is not a good idea to advocate that China emulate Russia. Putin's Russia may have won in the short term, but it could lose everything in the long term. Without China extending about $72 billion of credit (or more) to Russia, the Russian economy would probably have imploded by now.

The bottom line is that China's policy is: "Steady as she goes." China is earning an incredible $600 billion in annual trade surpluses. Why rock the boat?

If you want a muscular Chinese foreign policy, why not wait 15 years? China's Navy would be completely built out. Also, China would be mass producing its second generation of stealth fighters. Give China time to mature economically, technologically, and militarily. That would be the optimal time to flex Chinese military muscles.

It is not Putin's political agenda. It is the Western agenda of total world domination and they see Russia as the only obstacle to West's ultimate dream of total world domination. Controlling Eurasia is one of the objectives of the Western elite.

Russia is not going to bow down and meekly accept that. They will fight to the very death whatever cost it may have. This is why I admire Russia and Putin. Russians are a warrior race. You punch them, they punch back. You knock them down, they get back up. Russians are tough, never met one who wasn't. It is not easy to crush Russia, they have the ability to survive even under enormous suffering. Many have tried to eliminate Russia over the centuries from Napoleon to Hitler to America but they have all failed. Even without the Soviet Union, Russia is still the 2nd strongest country in the world. Russia won't ever go away. Putin is a patriot, not a Western puppet like so many others countries have. Xi Jinping, a Chinese patriot sees that in Putin and admires Putin.

Russia is doing a huge favour for China by keeping the West distracted. If Russia couldn't defend itself and easily surrendered to Western pressure (like a Yeltsin might have), then the West will concentrate all its efforts from weakening the only other threat to the West's world domination.....China.

Once the West puts all the pressure on China, China can do 2 things:
1) meekly surrender.
2) stand up and fight for its rights.

CPC is like Putin, they are patriots. They will choose to stand up and resist. Then the Western pressure will cause massive damage to the Chinese economy and all the damage happening to Russia will be even a greater scale due to China not being energy independent. Cut off the energy, eliminate the country. There is only so long a country can survive without energy. This is why its so difficult to eliminate Russia, they have the most important thing to survive....energy. You can make Russia suffer economically but you cannot totally eliminate them. This infuriates the Western elites like Zbigniew Brzezinski and other geo-strategists.

It is in China's interest to keep strong relations with Russia because Russia is the only friend that China has that can stand on its feet against the West. Without Russia on China's side, China has to deal with US, Japan, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia, NATO.

With Russia by China's side, China's greatest weakness which is energy dependence on the Western controlled seas is diminished. Russia can supply China with oil, gas, coal, industrial metals.

When the West decides to give China the same treatment given to Russia for not doing what the West tells you to do, Chinese money will dry up very quickly. China will find out only Russia is there for help.

There is a reason Xi Jinping chose Russia as his first foreign visit.

 

[Martian2]

There is a third option. China can annex plenty of neighboring hostile countries if the West gets too aggressive. This will create buffer zones.

In any case, I see friendly Sino-Western relations for decades into the future.

The Russians are big enough and can protect themselves.

It seems illogical to me to lend Chinese power to another country when China's national interest (ie. red line) is not at stake.

 

[Beidou2020]

There is a third option. China can annex plenty of neighboring hostile countries if the West gets too aggressive. This will create buffer zones.

In any case, I see friendly Sino-Western relations for decades into the future.

The Russians are big enough and can protect themselves.

It seems illogical to me to lend Chinese power to another country when China's national interest (ie. red line) is not at stake.

The SCS will be a big determination of this. If either China or the US don't back down from the SCS issue, I see a major problem. For the US, its entire reputation as the number 1 power in Asia hangs in the balance. For China, SCS is a core interest now.

China has taken a hardline position on the SCS, this means relations with the US and therefore the West will deteriorate in the future. Security interests always trump economic interests.

Western think tanks are already talking about full containment of China. Where does China turn to if the US decides to play hardball with China?

US unwise to play alliance card against China[1]- Chinadaily.com.cn

 

[Martian2]

The SCS will be a big determination of this. If either China or the US don't back down from the SCS issue, I see a major problem. For the US, its entire reputation as the number 1 power in Asia hangs in the balance. For China, SCS is a core interest now.

China has taken a hardline position on the SCS, this means relations with the US and therefore the West will deteriorate in the future. Security interests always trump economic interests.

Western think tanks are already talking about full containment of China. Where does China turn to if the US decides to play hardball with China?

US unwise to play alliance card against China[1]- Chinadaily.com.cn

The SCS is not really an issue.

1. The US destroyer traveled close to a Chinese island under the following three conditions. Firstly, the radar had to be turned off. Secondly, no helicopter could be aloft. Thirdly, the ship could not stop.

Thus, the US destroyer transit was an "innocent passage" and not a Freedom of Navigation (FON).

2. If the SCS issue escalates, China would probably win due to its enormous logistical advantages.

In any case, the United States has its hands full with the Paris attack and Russian-Turkey/NATO tensions. Why not enjoy the timeout? The SCS won't be an issue until next year. Let's see how things develop then.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The SCS is not really an issue.

1. The US destroyer traveled close to a Chinese island under the following three conditions. Firstly, the radar had to be turned off. Secondly, no helicopter could be aloft. Thirdly, the ship could not stop.

Thus, the US destroyer transit was an "innocent passage" and not a Freedom of Navigation (FON).

2. If the SCS issue escalates, China would probably win due to its enormous logistical advantages.

In any case, the United States has its hands full with the Paris attack and Russian-Turkey/NATO tensions. Why not enjoy the timeout? The SCS won't be an issue until next year. Let's see how things develop then.

pretty sure that the existing routes already go through Russia, just not new routes.

If we do not stand up against terrorism and fascism abroad today, the terrorists and fascists will come to us tomorrow. The twin evils of terrorism and fascism are both extreme threats to humanity.

 

[Martian2]

pretty sure that the existing routes already go through Russia, just not new routes.

If we do not stand up against terrorism and fascism abroad today, the terrorists and fascists will come to us tomorrow. The twin evils of terrorism and fascism are both extreme threats to humanity.

I think those are proposed routes. Most haven't been built yet.

Regarding terrorism, let the United States and Russia bomb ISIS into oblivion. China's doesn't have to lift a finger.

If you are referring to Turkish support of Uighur terrorists then China would have to go to war against Turkey. This is a bad idea for three reasons.

1. Turkish support for Uighur terrorists is pretty minor. It amounts to fake passports. The solution is to stop accepting Turkish passports in China without a biometric-verified passport. This eliminates the problem of fake-identity passports.

2. Turkey is part of NATO. Declaring war on NATO should not be done on a whim.

3. Turkey is Islamic. Most of the world's oil is in the Middle East. Antagonizing the Islamic-bloc oil rich countries should require a Chinese Red Line, which does not presently exist.
----------

Here is the logic on economic sanctions.

Do you agree that the Russia-Turkey sanctions are lose-lose?

If yes, why would you want China to enter a lose-lose sanctions war against Turkey?

Thus, China should not impose sanctions on Turkey.

The logic is straight-forward. China's goal is win-win relationships, not lose-lose.

China's Red Lines are: Taiwan independence, Diaoyu Islands, and South China Sea.

I don't see Turkey on the list. Do you?

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

Unnecessary, just behind Russia.


When Uighurs carrying Turkey passports, through Turkey into Syria, and some XinJiang separatism H.Q in Turkey city ... everything just proved Turkey playing dirty to China ... the solution is China will play it too, u hurt China and China will hurt u badly. Kurds will be the only winner after ISIS rising, it seems all Top5 support that. Chinese is not the blind & not fool, my friend ! China won't let the fire in our home like XinJiang, just lead the fire into their garden, it's flexible diplomacy.
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I respect your opinion, sir. Chinese have patience. You people can wait for years, hundred of years to turn things in your favor. Your people are not hot headed.

In my humble opinion, China shouldn't become aggressive in world politics. People definitely want to see at least one Power among UNSC members playing wisely and responsibly than others. West has already done too much harm to regions. West has lost its credibility in the world. Every rising power is blessing to World from God.

 

[Bilal.]

China should not stop being Chinese and emulate the moronic neo-cons. What appears tempting will give nothing but short term and limited gain versus much more cost in the long run. Martin and Cnleio have articulated it very well in my opinion.

 

[Adıvar]

How exactly? We hardly buy anything from Turkey but sell a lot of stuff to them.Sanction is only going to hurt China more than it does to Turkey.

If you really want Turkey suffer, just buy weapons using the money we made from trading with turkey, and then send the weapon to the Kurds... Now that's waht I call badass.

Kurds are already sent weapons by the west. Problem is they do not know how to use them. They need first education, training which is not an easy job.

They also need a cultural transformation. from a culture that allows incest, honor killings, drug traffic, female genital circumcision, social violation to a modern mindset.

 

[cnleio]

I respect your opinion, sir. Chinese have patience. You people can wait for years, hundred of years to turn things in your favor. Your people are not hot headed.

In my humble opinion, China shouldn't become aggressive in world politics. People definitely want to see at least one Power among UNSC members playing wisely and responsibly than others. West has already done too much harm to regions. West has lost its credibility in the world. Every rising power is blessing to World from God.

Anyways i just point out China knew who is behind our enemy, who is hurting us ... the flexible diplomacy base on one rule "Enemy's enemy is our friend and Enemy's friend isn't the friend " and Mao already taught China: "人不犯我我不犯人,人若犯我我必犯人" it means Chinese will push back, we know that China no mercy to terrorism & separatism.

I think those are proposed routes. Most haven't been built yet.

Regarding terrorism, let the United States and Russia bomb ISIS into oblivion. China's doesn't have to lift a finger.

If you are referring to Turkish support of Uighur terrorists then China would have to go to war against Turkey. This is a bad idea for three reasons.

1. Turkish support for Uighur terrorists is pretty minor. It amounts to fake passports. The solution is to stop accepting Turkish passports in China without a biometric-verified passport. This eliminates the problem of fake-identity passports.

2. Turkey is part of NATO. Declaring war on NATO should not be done on a whim.

3. Turkey is Islamic. Most of the world's oil is in the Middle East. Antagonizing the Islamic-bloc oil rich countries should require a Chinese Red Line, which does not presently exist.
----------

Here is the logic on economic sanctions.

Do you agree that the Russia-Turkey sanctions are lose-lose?

If yes, why would you want China to enter a lose-lose sanctions war against Turkey?

Thus, China should not impose sanctions on Turkey.

The logic is straight-forward. China's goal is win-win relationships, not lose-lose.

China's Red Lines are: Taiwan independence, Diaoyu Islands, and South China Sea.

I don't see Turkey on the list. Do you?

Russia is the only way to Europe, not Turkey ... coz Middle-East is in hell, Turkey might become next. 'The Silk Road' won't go through war-zone.

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

Kurds are already sent weapons by the west. Problem is they do not know how to use them. They need first education, training which is not an easy job.

They also need a cultural transformation. from a culture that allows incest, honor killings, drug traffic, female genital circumcision, social violation to a modern mindset.

Bro, One question over here. West is ally of Turkey then why it will send weapons to Kurds knowing that Kurds are against Turkey? What is your opinion about this?

We both are new members over here.

 

[Adıvar]

Bro, One question over here. West is ally of Turkey then why it will send weapons to Kurds knowing that Kurds are against Turkey? What is your opinion about this?

We both are new members over here.

Kurds are not against Turkey. The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq has very good relations with the present Turkish government. West send weapons to kurdish peshmergea in Iraq .

However, kurdish PKK, which is also recognized as a terrorist organisation by the west, is a threat to civilians for Turkey that must be exterminated.

 

[Lure]

Anyways i just point out China knew who is behind our enemy, who is hurting us ... the flexible diplomacy base on one rule "Enemy's enemy is our friend and Enemy's friend isn't the friend " and Mao already taught China: "人不犯我我不犯人,人若犯我我必犯人" it means Chinese will push back, we know that.
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Russia is the only way to Europe, not Turkey ... coz Middle-East is in hell, Turkey might become next. 'The Silk Road' won't go through war-zone.

One does always see what he wants to see. Let me show you another Turkey. Shall we?

From Labour Day.

From Gezi Protests

Opening of Chinese Museum in Turkey

A Child's painting from National Sovereignty and Children's Day in Turkey

You can hate whatever you wanna hate. You can also hate my country. However don't make a few lunatics as an excuse for your hate. It just makes it worse, because those idiots thinks they are very strong and very important.

By the way those lunatics were always supported and nurtured by the West with Operation Gladio in the last 40 years. Where were your country? Why didn't you support left in Turkey? We are walking in a very thin line here, they are supported by Gulf countries, by the West, by everybody. On contrary who supported leftists or seculars in Turkey? No one. You've sit there in Shanghai watched all the action while leftists were being hunted down in Istanbul. Now you are angry with Turkey because Turkey became very conservative and ultra nationalistic. What would you expect? I guess leftists and seculars were stubborn enough to get 35% of the votes(CHP+Other leftist movements).

Please all Chinese members here reply this. What would you expect without any support to democratic, progressive and leftist people in Turkey!?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I think those are proposed routes. Most haven't been built yet.

Regarding terrorism, let the United States and Russia bomb ISIS into oblivion. China's doesn't have to lift a finger.

If you are referring to Turkish support of Uighur terrorists then China would have to go to war against Turkey. This is a bad idea for three reasons.

1. Turkish support for Uighur terrorists is pretty minor. It amounts to fake passports. The solution is to stop accepting Turkish passports in China without a biometric-verified passport. This eliminates the problem of fake-identity passports.

2. Turkey is part of NATO. Declaring war on NATO should not be done on a whim.

3. Turkey is Islamic. Most of the world's oil is in the Middle East. Antagonizing the Islamic-bloc oil rich countries should require a Chinese Red Line, which does not presently exist.
----------

Here is the logic on economic sanctions.

Do you agree that the Russia-Turkey sanctions are lose-lose?

If yes, why would you want China to enter a lose-lose sanctions war against Turkey?

Thus, China should not impose sanctions on Turkey.

The logic is straight-forward. China's goal is win-win relationships, not lose-lose.

China's Red Lines are: Taiwan independence, Diaoyu Islands, and South China Sea.

I don't see Turkey on the list. Do you?

Economic sanctions is not war. I also don't agree that sanctions against Turkey are lose-lose for Russia. It's only their loss. Turkey has nothing Russia wants.

 

[Martian2]

Economic sanctions is not war. I also don't agree that sanctions against Turkey are lose-lose for Russia. It's only their loss. Turkey has nothing Russia wants.

Economics sanctions is a form of war waged by one country against another. The technical term is "economic warfare."

Russia wants Turkey's inexpensive food imports. Turkey controls access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Turkey is a country of 80 million consumers. Russia has only suspended (but not canceled) talks on the South Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey to Europe.

It is puzzling to me that there seems to be strong support among some Chinese for Russia.

I am neither pro- or anti-Russia. Similarly, I am neither pro- or anti-Turkey. I am simply objective.

An impassioned analysis shows that there had been no bridge connecting China to Russia for 25 years (since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989). I think a railway bridge between China and Russia is being built or recently inaugurated. Nevertheless, there is still no bridge for cars or trucks.

Furthermore, there is no oil or gas pipeline from Russia to China. However, there is plenty of Russia oil and gas pipelines to Europe and Turkey. For 25 years, the Russians decided they would only sell their oil and gas to Europeans and Turks. China has to pay more for oil transported by rail cars.

Additionally, Russia was willing to give the Turks an 8% discount on gas sent to Turkey. In contrast, Iran played hardball with China and refused a 1.5% requested discount over a 30 year high-volume purchase. It is reasonable to assume that China requested an identical 1.5% discount from Russia. This was also refused by the Russians.

For the last 25 years, the Russians have given preferential trade privileges to Europeans and Turks. The Russians have played hardball with China.

China's economic allies are Turkmenistan, which currently supplies China with 30 bcm (ie. billion cubic meters) of gas via pipeline that is set to increase to 60 bcm in the next 3 years. Also, Kazakhstan is a reliable supplier of oil via pipeline. China has long-term contracts with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

In my view, China should use its political power on behalf of Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan. The Russians are only being nice to China temporarily, because the Russians currently have disputes with all of its preferential trade partners. The Russians had been putting the economic screws to China for 25 years. They are hardly China's ally. Once the disputes are settled, the Russians will go back to favoring European and Turkish business partners.

For example, the steel gas pipelines for South Stream have already been built. The contractors were Germans and Japanese. None were Chinese. The Russians have excluded Chinese contractors from large Russian projects.

Prior to the latest Russia-West crisis, not a single Chinese oil contractor had been invited to participate in Arctic oil drilling. All were western companies. Once again, Chinese companies were excluded by the Russians.

The Russians were very insistent on building pipelines to the Pacific Ocean. Russian oil and gas were to be sold on the world market. It is only the recent glut of oil supply and the rift with the West and Japan (because Japan joined Western sanctions against Russia) that Russia agreed to an oil and gas pipeline to China. The original Russian plan was to bypass China.

The Russian geopolitical strategy is pretty clear. Do everything possible to keep China weak. The Russians need China temporarily. However, the Russians have no intention of being China's long-term partner. It is unwise for China to throw its weight forcefully behind Russia.

The better plan is to continue the long-term Chinese foreign policy. China remains neutral.