The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[yavar]

Iran Ayatollah Khamenei:EU piracy Masks Shipment, Defensive tour for Government members, U.S credibility & wolrd status today, further condition on JCPOA

 

[TheImmortal]

Arak was an important step, yes but it seems that giving up on the small amount of Plutonium

That small amount (10kg) if separated would be enough for 1-2 nuclear bombs a year. That’s not something to sneeze at.

Compare that to how many IR-1 or IR-2M centrifuges have to spin and how much raw uranium has to be injected in order to get the equivalent 90+% enriched weapons grade uranium for a comparable amount of nuclear weapons.

Selling Arak for reactor technology was the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Eventually once the nuclear stand off was resolved Iran could task Russia or another country to assist with developing a reactor.

Instead, it gave up a valuable dual path approach to atomic bomb.

 

[PeeD]

That small amount (10kg) if separated would be enough for 1-2 nuclear bombs a year. That’s not something to sneeze at.

Compare that to how many IR-1 or IR-2M centrifuges have to spin and how much raw uranium has to be injected in order to get the equivalent 90+% enriched weapons grade uranium for a comparable amount of nuclear weapons.

Selling Arak for reactor technology was the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Eventually once the nuclear stand off was resolved Iran could task Russia or another country to assist with developing a reactor.

Instead, it gave up a valuable dual path approach to atomic bomb.

Iran is not in a hurry. Once a machine like IR-9 becomes operational, dozens of bombs can be produced annually.
But whats important: Enrichment can't be detected or tracked if done in the right way.

Arak was primarily a leverage which Iran gave up on to get an ok on enrichment from the world.

 

[TheImmortal]

Once a machine like IR-9 becomes operational, dozens of bombs can be produced annually.
But whats important: Enrichment can't be detected or tracked if done in the right way.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are going after enrichment as well. it would have been highly unlikely in 2015 for Iran to agree to dismantling its enrichment capability.

Arak was a foolish gamble. The dual pathway was given up way too easy. If Anything Iran should have agreed to remove the reactor core and put it in safe storage for at least 10 years before destroying it.

Pouring concrete day 1? Amateur move. Made it easier for US to rip up the deal down the road.

 

[PeeD]

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are going after enrichment as well. it would have been highly unlikely in 2015 for Iran to agree to dismantling its enrichment capability.

Arak was a foolish gamble. The dual pathway was given up way too easy. If Anything Iran should have agreed to remove the reactor core and put it in safe storage for at least 10 years before destroying it.

Pouring concrete day 1? Amateur move. Made it easier for US to rip up the deal down the road.

Thats what they did, the reactor vessel is still intact, concrete was only poured into the surrounding piping, which is reversible with some time.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia must fist learn much about centrifuges and then manage to import the necessary materials to build them. Difficult job.

 

[WudangMaster]

Thats what they did, the reactor vessel is still intact, concrete was only poured into the surrounding piping, which is reversible with some time.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia must fist learn much about centrifuges and then manage to import the necessary materials to build them. Difficult job.

So was concrete poured into the calandria vessel or the pit and surrounding pipe network as seen in that picture with everyone standing around pit full of concrete?
When they run the cold water test this year, will that mean that the damage has been reversed?

 

[TheImmortal]

So was concrete poured into the calandria vessel or the pit and surrounding pipe network as seen in that picture with everyone standing around pit full of concrete?
When they run the cold water test this year, will that mean that the damage has been reversed?

Salehi claims he “fooled” the west and they didn’t actually pour concrete into the reactor.

Nuclear Chief Says Iran Hid Information About Heavy Water Reactor

Iran nuclear chief said in an interview he had lied about destroying heavy water reactor during nuclear agreement.

www.google.com

It’s a lie. Reactor is useless now. @PeeD is wrong

Avertissement de redirection

I believe The cold test is with the “new” reactor that doesn’t produce plutonium. Could be wrong.

 

[PeeD]

So was concrete poured into the calandria vessel or the pit and surrounding pipe network as seen in that picture with everyone standing around pit full of concrete?
When they run the cold water test this year, will that mean that the damage has been reversed?

You mean this photo? Its photoshop and such a silly one that makes me wonder how people think the new reactor vessel would fit in if it was fully poured with concrete.

As for the cold water test: That is for the new reactor which is not a true heavy water reactor anymore.

Salehi claims he “fooled” the west and they didn’t actually pour concrete into the reactor.

Nuclear Chief Says Iran Hid Information About Heavy Water Reactor

Iran nuclear chief said in an interview he had lied about destroying heavy water reactor during nuclear agreement.

www.google.com

It’s a lie. Reactor is useless now. @PeeD is wrong

Well it could be a lie, sure. But all we can do is using official sources.
Also he didn't say he fooled the west, just that they agreed on something that is reversible but requires some time to.
The west wanted that time and Iran wanted it to be reversible. Anyway from Irans point of view it is a old reactor design.

I have to say that I think Salehi is not someone who usually lies.

 

[Surenas]

With Netanyahu vulnerable, Israel again ignored by Washington on Iran

The intimate dialogue Israel expected with the new Biden administration, giving it an opportunity to explain its position on Iran, to show the Americans highly classified intelligence and provide a comprehensive briefing on the 2015 deal with Iran and its many lacunas, never materialized. Officially, contacts are said to be underway between the National Security Council in Washington and Israel’s National Security Council. In fact, these come down to a few Zoom conversations during which national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat tried to convey pointed messages, but his ability to make an impression, and on Zoom, at that, is limited to non-existent.

“The Americans are not really taking us into consideration at this point,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “The issue is not high on their agenda; they are busy dealing with the coronavirus and then with Russia and China. The Middle East is in fourth place, and there is no certainty that the Iranian nuclear agreement is even the most dominant issue in the region,” he added.

The situation on the ground is even worse. According to information reaching Jerusalem, official and quasi-official Biden administration emissaries are courting Iran intensively, conducting contacts, sending envoys, writing letters and documents. The contacts are both official and unofficial, some through mediators, usually European ones.

The Iranians are taking a simple, tough line. They are simply unwilling to hear from the Americans or to engage in any sort of negotiations as long as the United States refuses to return unilaterally to the original deal with Tehran and lift its sanctions on the regime. “It’s embarrassing,” an Israeli source familiar with these developments told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “The Americans are investing much more effort in the Iranian side than in trying to understand our side, but the Iranians are not blinking, for now,” according to the source.

The country facilitating Iran’s current tough stance is China. The agreement on strategic cooperation and investment signed on March 27 between Beijing and Tehran is of great concern to Israel. “The Iranians succeeded, big time, in withstanding the harsh sanctions imposed on them, using various means, including oil smuggling and secret cooperation with various countries,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Publication of an agreement of this magnitude between Iran and China greatly boosts Iran’s self-confidence and weakens the American bargaining power. This is a negative development of strategic proportions,” he added.

The Israeli side sounds considerably desperate. Netanyahu still has some “big guns” at his disposal, namely Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen who has been nurturing a close working relationship with US officials whom he met during the Obama administration and are now key players in the Biden administration. Al-Monitor has learned that Cohen, whose term ends in June, will soon depart for Washington to discuss the Iran issue. He will try to affect change in the US position, but he realizes that this time his mission will be particularly difficult.

“The Americans are simply in a totally different place,” a senior Israeli diplomatic source sums up, speaking on condition of anonymity. “As far as they are concerned, the whole Iran issue can be checked off by returning to the international agreement that defines the Iranian nuclear project and blocks it for as long as possible, and that’s that. They probably want to charge ahead with the agreement and have pretty much given up on making significant amendments to it.”

This development is generating grave concern, not only in Israel. “All of our strategic partners in the region are no less concerned, and perhaps even more than we are,” the senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor. “The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, even Qatar — all these states know the significance of these developments, and many in the region’s capitals are losing sleep over them.” The problem is that in the most important capital of all, Washington, no one is really worried. They have other problems.

With Netanyahu vulnerable, Israel again ignored by Washington on Iran

Knowing he is politically vulnerable, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is silent on Washington’s intention to return to the nuclear deal with Tehran.

www.al-monitor.com

 

[raptor22]

Salehi claims he “fooled” the west and they didn’t actually pour concrete into the reactor.

Nuclear Chief Says Iran Hid Information About Heavy Water Reactor

Iran nuclear chief said in an interview he had lied about destroying heavy water reactor during nuclear agreement.

www.google.com

It’s a lie. Reactor is useless now. @PeeD is wrong

Avertissement de redirection

I believe The cold test is with the “new” reactor that doesn’t produce plutonium. Could be wrong.

Salehi said Iran had extra pressure tubes ,that would be installed in calandria fuel channel, & were concealed by Iran back then ...they actually poured concrete not into the reactor but in pressure tubes ... and base on his claims calandria was kept and now stored extra pressure tubes have been installed in it...
The reactor has been modified to run on low-enriched fuel rather than natural uranium therefore now it would produce traces of plutonium in comparison to generating enough plutonium in its spent fuel to produce one or two bombs per year previously ..
So you are right that reactor is useless if it was meant to make a bomb .. now just good for isotopes ..

 

[Surenas]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377607243433041929

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377608198492856323

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377607243433041929

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377608198492856323

We had much more pre-JCPOA.

almost 10 years later. Where is IR-6? IR-8?

At best Iran is at 4-5 SWU with IR-2M and IR-4.

It needs to be at 10+ SWU per centrifuge (and more like 20-25 SWU) to reach its goal of 250,000 SWU and 1M in the long run.

 

[Shawnee]

We had much more pre-JCPOA.

almost 10 years later. Where is IR-6? IR-8?

At best Iran is at 4-5 SWU with IR-2M and IR-4.

It needs to be at 10+ SWU per centrifuge (and more like 20-25 SWU) to reach its goal of 250,000 SWU and 1M in the long run.

You are the one who suggested to negotiate with Trump. The only one in this forum who suggested that.
Result would be no nuclear activity, no regional power, no missiles beyond 300 km.

 

[Death Professor]

I keep coming back to this thread and even after years the thread title still remains relevant.

The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

 

[TheImmortal]

You are the one who suggested to negotiate with Trump. The only one in this forum who suggested that.
Result would be no nuclear activity, no regional power, no missiles beyond 300 km.

I did not suggest that Iran negotiate with Trump, I said that Iran will eventually negotiate with Trump or Biden because it couldn’t stay under draconian sanctions forever, if it planned to the actions would have been much more dramatic. Which by the way many here said Iran wouldn’t negotiate and nuclear deal was dead.

Now people here are cheering these stupid “breaches” when they are nothing but theatrics to get back to the deal. Just more irani bazi. As someone who negotiate in Iran it makes me roll my eyes at the tactics, like a shopkeeper in a bazaar at how obvious they are. Rest assured it’s not fooling the Americans either.

And Trump would have given Iran a more favorable deal than Biden. Because Trump is from conservative camp and they securing a major deal would be willing to accept certain things. Biden on the other hand will be from the liberal (Rouhani camp) and will be accused of handing Iran a silver platter and being a traitor. Thus he will take a much stricter line to appease the conservatives

Notice how Iran is going to be negotiating when it’s new president is likely going to be a conservative....very telling. Iran Already negotiated with a liberal (Obama) and hardly anyone would call JCPOA very favorable to Iran as Iran got to sell its oil again while gutting most of its nuclear breakout capability....hardly a fair deal.

So it’s a fallacy to think Biden is a “fair deal” and Trump would have been a “bad deal”.