The Coming Collapse of China: 2016 Edition

[terranMarine]

请你不要这么说话。。好丢脸(●—●)
说话淡定些吧。。

@Beidou2020 你也是。

妹妹仔, sometimes you need to teach certain types some wisdom. The big boss must display strength otherwise they will think China is weak and incapable.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

妹妹仔, sometimes you need to teach certain types some wisdom. The big boss must display strength otherwise they will think China is weak and incapable.

我是说语气和礼貌的问题……
拜托啦。

 

[Aepsilons]

I read some guys said - America is a jealous god. So if you don't want to suffer their jealousy, remain weak & humble. But do not think China is a nation that will remain of such lowly stature?

Its funny , before it was the threat of Japan, now the threat of China. I suppose the theme of adapting to competition is a universal trait.

China is cool, no problem guy. But too arrogant talk not gonna get Japanese to side with you. Like I said learn from 血滴子.

My brother, learn to speak with more softer tone. Let us try to build positive rapport with our Chinese friends here. Let's evade in any hostilities , okay?

That's right learn to respect China, in the future we will be your new overlord replacing the Americans. You should be thankful you won't have to listen to the Americans . That's a f*cking humiliation for the East Asian race.

Pen pal, Yoshi is of the right wing cadre and perhaps it's better to tone down the superior rhetoric. It does not build confidence or cultivable the cooperation among equals we Japanese strive for among our East Asian kin. Thank you .

 

[Beast]

Fatal blow? China's economy is 3-4 times the size of countries like France, UK, Japan and nearly 11 times the size of Russia and you still haven't gained technological or power projection overmatch against them. An you think you can deal a 'fatal blow' to the United States? The ultimate symbol of power is the ability to project it. Since the end of world war 2 the United States has developed an economic, military, and alliance system to project power anywhere on the planet. We've already achieved this capability. China having a large economy will not deal a 'fatal blow' to the United States. China will not collapse, but China's economy will be in steady decline over the mid to long term. We've already seen this decline over the last five years. An as China's current economic model is exhausted and major demographic issues settle in over the next couple decades that decline will become even more pronounced. China is facing significant economic stressors in its future, so to think China will become an overlord and deal a 'fatal blow' to the U.S. Is laughable. China doesn't have the overmatch capability to deny our power projection in the world. We're actually increasing our presence on your periphery right now due to your own recklessness. You and the Chinese PDF platoon can keep deluding yourselves all you want, it won't change those facts.

We have already gain technology edge over these small Russia, France, GB and Germany.

The ultimate symbol of power is to project finance power around the globe. Even your might US military is build on the base of finance might. Without the US dollar, US war machine is useless. Just ask the Soviet Union. Soviet Union is destroyed not by US invading forces nor US nuke but becos they do not have a strong financial structure to support such huge expenditure of military.

A typical fanboy you are to see victory based on brute military that has no wisdom. We Chinese invented the art of war loves this phase. “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

Weaker US financial bases will weaken the US military w/o even a fight and US can't do anything to China as any outright invasion of will result in WWIII of nuke.

US has too many fanboy like you who think building more military toys and overspending on gadget is to fix the decline of US against China. I just love fanboy like you. Keep building and spend more on weapon when your economy is decline. We Chinese love it.

 

[F-22Raptor]

We have already gain technology edge over these small Russia, France, GB and Germany.

The ultimate symbol of power is to project finance power around the globe. Even your might US military is build on the base of finance might. Without the US dollar, US war machine is useless. Just ask the Soviet Union. Soviet Union is destroyed not by US invading forces nor US nuke but becos they do not have a strong financial structure to support such huge expenditure of military.

A typical fanboy you are to see victory based on brute military that has no wisdom. We Chinese invented the art of war loves this phase. “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

Weaker US financial bases will weaken the US military w/o even a fight and US can't do anything to China as any outright invasion of will result in WWIII of nuke.

US has too many fanboy like you who think building more military toys and overspending on gadget is to fix the decline of US against China. I just love fanboy like you. Keep building and spend more on weapon when your economy is decline. We Chinese love it.

First off, no, you haven't gained technological or qualitative overmatch against Japan, UK, France, or Russia. It's really that simple.

The Soviets were spending near 20% of their GDP on the military, while the US is spending around 3.5% currently. The US economy is not even close to resembling that of the Soviets. Your correct that having a strong economic foundation is key to building a powerful military, but the problem for you is that we've already achieved that. The US economy is sound with strong fundamentals, deep liquid financial markets, a high GDP per capita, and world class businesses and universities. The US also has arguably the most innovative economy on earth.

The Fed also rose interest rates in December in a sign of confidence in the US economy with further hikes expected this year.

You see, the US has already achieved enormous economic heft, and has the ability to finance a world class military. As I've stated previously, the US developed an economic, military, and alliance system to achieve the success it has.

Have fun daydreaming kid....

 

[Beast]

First off, no, you haven't gained technological or qualitative overmatch against Japan, UK, France, or Russia. It's really that simple.

The Soviets were spending near 20% of their GDP on the military, while the US is spending around 3.5% currently. The US economy is not even close to resembling that of the Soviets. Your correct that having a strong economic foundation is key to building a powerful military, but the problem for you is that we've already achieved that. The US economy is sound with strong fundamentals, deep liquid financial markets, a high GDP per capita, and world class businesses and universities. The US also has arguably the most innovative economy on earth.

The Fed also rose interest rates in December in a sign of confidence in the US economy with further hikes expected this year.

You see, the US has already achieved enormous economic heft, and has the ability to finance a world class military. As I've stated previously, the US developed an economic, military, and alliance system to achieve the success it has.

Have fun daydreaming kid....

Your country economy growth is like snail crawl. With inflation factor in, most of your military stuff needs to either shrink down or increase budget. Which result in erosion of other areas. US has reached its peak in economy growth. While China despite the economy slow down, still achieve an impressive 6.9% growth, going by this rate, China can overtake US in 2022 or 2023 as world largest economy.

The real Kid is you.

 

[Beidou2020]

As I expected, you have no tangible rebuttal to the facts I posted, but plenty of hot air. The fact of the matter is that the US can project power....anywhere.....on the globe...and right on China's periphery. Just within the last couple of months US subs popped up at Subic Bay, P-8's deployed from Singapore, and the US an Australia are finalizing bomber deployments from their soil. That's real power Beidou, and with that kind of forward presence our influence is entrenched in the region. Your playing a game of assumptions and what if's Beidou. The US already has enormous economic heft and the ability to pay for military supremacy. Our military has already initiated our Third Offset Strategy last year to further our military and technological dominance well into the future. We're spending around 3.5% of our GDP on the military, while we spent 6% during the Reagan era. We could spend upwards of a trillion dollars on our military if it was absolutely necessary. Money is not an obstacle for the United States.

As I said in my last post, China does not have the overmatch capability to deny the power projection and foreign presence of the United States. That's a fact.

Now tell me, which account will you post under now? Is it Beidou, Economic Superpower, or Hypersonicmissiles?

Where is your rebuttal to the fact that China is constructing islands in the SCS and the US military is utterly powerless to stop it?

The highly overrated US military that got humiliated by a volunteer Chinese army in the Korean War is psychologically scarred from getting into a war with China.

Tell me Raptor boy, what's the point of spending all that money on the military and power projections when you are too afraid to use it?

As I've said before, the US doesn't have balls to use its military on China. China has achieved enough military power to deter anyone from using force and has checkmated the US military trump card.

Military is only useful if you can ACTUALLY use it. But military will never be used against a powerful military like China. China is now free to build anything it wants on the SCS and continue to change the status quo. You can't do a damn thing to stop it

 

[TaiShang]

Where is your rebuttal to the fact that China is constructing islands in the SCS and the US military is utterly powerless to stop it?

The highly overrated US military that got humiliated by a volunteer Chinese army in the Korean War is psychologically scarred from getting into a war with China.

Tell me Raptor boy, what's the point of spending all that money on the military and power projections when you are too afraid to use it?

As I've said before, the US doesn't have balls to use its military on China. China has achieved enough military power to deter anyone from using force and has checkmated the US military trump card.

Military is only useful if you can ACTUALLY use it. But military will never be used against a powerful military like China. China is now free to build anything it wants on the SCS and continue to change the status quo. You can't do a damn thing to stop it

The US Army is instrumental to punish small nations, but very bad at nation building (after small countries are left in destruction).

The US Army is toothless when it faces other full nuclear-capable nations.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Your country economy growth is like snail crawl. With inflation factor in, most of your military stuff needs to either shrink down or increase budget. Which result in erosion of other areas. US has reached its peak in economy growth. While China despite the economy slow down, still achieve an impressive 6.9% growth, going by this rate, China can overtake US in 2022 or 2023 as world largest economy.

The real Kid is you.

The US is a highly developed economy growing at roughly 2-2.5% per year, which is not to bad compared to other developed countries. Current estimates put the US economy past 20 trillion in roughly 2-3 years.

China is facing a steady economic decline over the mid to long term. Relatively, your still growing fast, but your annual GDP rate will continue to decline as the years go by as we have seen over the last 5 years and is expected this year. Many economic experts are also highly skeptical of China's reported GDP rate, as proven by local CCP officials admitting to reporting bogus economic figures for political purposes. The confidence and trustworthiness of the Chinese economy took a hit in 2015 after the CCP's bumbling of the stock market crash and 2% currency depreciation which rippled through markets.

As we head into the 20's, China's huge demographic problems will begin to be felt. As China's population over 60 significantly increases and overall population declines China's economy will only slow even further. Your demographic problems will be a multi-decade issue. Chinese over 60 will be up to a third of your population by 2050. That's like if the entire US population was over 60. That's going to put massive strain on your health and social programs and overall economy, no matter how you slice it.

The fact is that China is facing huge economic headwinds in its future, which just began a couple years ago. Regardless of whether China's economy grows larger than the US, money alone will not deal a 'fatal blow' to the United States. The US has already developed the power projection capability, backed by its economic clout and alliances, to influence any part of the planet. That's reality, not an assumption or what if, but reality. The Chinese here have trouble grasping it.

Where is your rebuttal to the fact that China is constructing islands in the SCS and the US military is utterly powerless to stop it?

The highly overrated US military that got humiliated by a volunteer Chinese army in the Korean War is psychologically scarred from getting into a war with China.

Tell me Raptor boy, what's the point of spending all that money on the military and power projections when you are too afraid to use it?

As I've said before, the US doesn't have balls to use its military on China. China has achieved enough military power to deter anyone from using force and has checkmated the US military trump card.

Military is only useful if you can ACTUALLY use it. But military will never be used against a powerful military like China. China is now free to build anything it wants on the SCS and continue to change the status quo. You can't do a damn thing to stop it

Oh Beidou, you and the Chinese PDF brigade are a broken record on this topic. I've already posted my thoughts on this issue, but will post again for the thick headed here.

Control of the South China Sea is the ultimate end game here. The CCP wants to gain full control of the SCS to influence what comes and goes through it. Those islands have little military value other than a forward ISR presence. In a conflict, those islands would be easy targets or "grapes" as our US Pacific commander put it, so they would be of no value in a shooting war. This leads me to believe that China is using these islands to gain control and influence in the SCS, the CCP's main objective. It's why there has been rumors China wants to setup an air defense zone in the region.

As long as the US has a forward power projection presence in the SCS, China will never be able to fully control or influence it. The US already has military partnerships with the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Australia, and our relationships with Indonesia and Vietnam are growing. With those kind of partnerships, our influence is entrenched in the SCS. We conduct military operations in the SCS almost on a daily basis. Those operations will only degrade Chinese attempts to gain hegemony over the SCS.

 

[Solomon2]

This idiot is using our name to pocket from the dumb American public. It's disgusting how he wrote book and sell off from it. He's a greedy person.

致富光荣 ("Wealth is glorious")

 

[Beidou2020]

The US is a highly developed economy growing at roughly 2-2.5% per year, which is not to bad compared to other developed countries. Current estimates put the US economy past 20 trillion in roughly 2-3 years.

China is facing a steady economic decline over the mid to long term. Relatively, your still growing fast, but your annual GDP rate will continue to decline as the years go by as we have seen over the last 5 years and is expected this year. Many economic experts are also highly skeptical of China's reported GDP rate, as proven by local CCP officials admitting to reporting bogus economic figures for political purposes. The confidence and trustworthiness of the Chinese economy took a hit in 2015 after the CCP's bumbling of the stock market crash and 2% currency depreciation which rippled through markets.

As we head into the 20's, China's huge demographic problems will begin to be felt. As China's population over 60 significantly increases and overall population declines China's economy will only slow even further. Your demographic problems will be a multi-decade issue. Chinese over 60 will be up to a third of your population by 2050. That's like if the entire US population was over 60. That's going to put massive strain on your health and social programs and overall economy, no matter how you slice it.

The fact is that China is facing huge economic headwinds in its future, which just began a couple years ago. Regardless of whether China's economy grows larger than the US, money alone will not deal a 'fatal blow' to the United States. The US has already developed the power projection capability, backed by its economic clout and alliances, to influence any part of the planet. That's reality, not an assumption or what if, but reality. The Chinese here have trouble grasping it.



Oh Beidou, you and the Chinese PDF brigade are a broken record on this topic. I've already posted my thoughts on this issue, but will post again for the thick headed here.

Control of the South China Sea is the ultimate end game here. The CCP wants to gain full control of the SCS to influence what comes and goes through it. Those islands have little military value other than a forward ISR presence. In a conflict, those islands would be easy targets or "grapes" as our US Pacific commander put it, so they would be of no value in a shooting war. This leads me to believe that China is using these islands to gain control and influence in the SCS, the CCP's main objective. It's why there has been rumors China wants to setup an air defense zone in the region.

As long as the US has a forward power projection presence in the SCS, China will never be able to fully control or influence it. The US already has military partnerships with the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Australia, and our relationships with Indonesia and Vietnam are growing. With those kind of partnerships, our influence is entrenched in the SCS. We conduct military operations in the SCS almost on a daily basis. Those operations will only degrade Chinese attempts to gain hegemony over the SCS.

That's your rebuttal? LMAO!!!

China is building the islands to militarise them with fighter jets, strategic bombers and SAMs. Once they are militarised those islands become a forward military base which extends the reach of the PLAAF greatly on the SCS.

Those islands are now territory of China. An attack on those military facilities will be an attack against China.

The US can never get into a war with China because the cost of going to war with China is far too great even at this stage. China is rapidly closing the military gap with the US which will make it impossible for the US to fight China in its backyard unless the US wants another bloody nose like it got in the Korean War by a volunteer Chinese army that was underequipped and underfunded.

With the islands, the coast guard ships, the type 056 corvettes, China is increasing its presence and influence in the SCS which it never had before. China knows the US doesn't have the balls to get into a war with China. This is exactly why China is militarising those islands. Chinese military power projection in the SCS just got a massive boost thanks to the spineless and cowardly US military. As I said before, what's the point of spending trillions on the military if you're afraid to use it? China is showing the region and the world the US is just a paper tiger. China is actively changing the status quo in East Asia and the US is powerless to stop it.

Go on, have another try.

 

[jhungary]

Geez...Gordon Chang writes a book in 2001 and suddenly everybody thinks it topped the New York Times's best seller list (and is on a coffee table next to a picture of Mao)

You are giving him way too much credit. It's ranked #502,211 on Amazon.

Did it even make the top 100? I can't even find a position.
The New York Times Non-Fiction Best Sellers of 2001 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The New York Times Non-Fiction Best Sellers of 2002 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Amazon.com Best Sellers of 2001 in Books

Amazon.com Best Sellers of 2002 in Books

All your "America loves Gordon Chang" is simply weird.

This is a click bait.

On the other hand, I never even heard of Gordon Chang all the years I was in the US, maybe the Chinese member here keep singing Gordon Chang "praise" are actually working for Chang Publicists? God Knows

 

[TaiShang]

Many economic experts are also highly skeptical of China's reported GDP rate, as proven by local CCP officials admitting to reporting bogus economic figures for political purposes.

Neither does Trump believe US figures are reflective of the reality as far as US financials are concerned. There will always be skeptical people although, in China's case, the tendency is to hide the capability not to draw too much heat and/or expectation from others.

The confidence and trustworthiness of the Chinese economy took a hit in 2015 after the CCP's bumbling of the stock market crash and 2% currency depreciation which rippled through markets.

It has been empirically verified that US stock market has experienced similar ups and downs, at times violent ups and downs. Considering the immaturity of China's stock markets, this is normal. Currencies appreciate and depreciate; still, comparing to many other regional powers, China's currency has not depreciated that much over the years. In fact, it gained a lot in the long view. Appreciation & depreciation is as much political and man-made as economic and organic/accidental.

@Shotgunner51

As we head into the 20's, China's huge demographic problems will begin to be felt.

And you will have demographic problems as WASP population declines in relative to the other groups. Every country has advantages and disadvantages. We manage it better than you do with yours.

The fact is that China is facing huge economic headwinds in its future, which just began a couple years ago.

China's economy is in transition and, compared to the historical experience of the developed West, it has so far been better managed and less rocky. The level of development you enjoy now did not come without a cost. Read history, please.

Regardless of whether China's economy grows larger than the US, money alone will not deal a 'fatal blow' to the United States. The US has already developed the power projection capability, backed by its economic clout and alliances, to influence any part of the planet.

The point is to incrementally undermine the US. Achieving that status will take time, just as how it took time for you -- you were the greatest economy from the late 1800s, but only achieved dominance after the Second World War. Nuclear triad has bought this time for China very well so far. We are just doing everything we really want with the US objecting or not. That's what is important. Speed is just relative here.

We conduct military operations in the SCS almost on a daily basis. Those operations will only degrade Chinese attempts to gain hegemony over the SCS.

In fact, they are reinforcing our grip on the region. On this, we both look at the issue from different angles. So long as both are happy with what they have been doing, we are fine.

In a conflict, those islands would be easy targets or "grapes" as our US Pacific commander put it, so they would be of no value in a shooting war.

In a war, not only the US interests in this region, the entire continental US will be easy targets, or "pears" for us. The point is, will that war ever come? Or will we be pushing you out step by step?

This leads me to believe that China is using these islands to gain control and influence in the SCS, the CCP's main objective. It's why there has been rumors China wants to setup an air defense zone in the region.

There will be time for that, as well. Rumors are rumors, do not believe them until it becomes a reality. We will debate a lot when we have SCS ADIZ. Right now, it is only capability build-up that we need. Our main objective in SCS is to ensure China's national security at the finest detail.

As long as the US has a forward power projection presence in the SCS, China will never be able to fully control or influence it. The US already has military partnerships with the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Australia, and our relationships with Indonesia and Vietnam are growing. With those kind of partnerships, our influence is entrenched in the SCS. We conduct military operations in the SCS almost on a daily basis. Those operations will only degrade Chinese attempts to gain hegemony over the SCS.

You have your games, we have our games. We are multilitarel power; hence, we engage Latin America differently from how you engage the Asia-Pacific. We are equal players and the result is anybody's guess. You can only challenge our interests indirectly and vice versa. So, let's see which side's foreign policy is more flexible, multi-leveled, long-view and optimum.

 

[Beidou2020]

Neither does Trump believe US figures are reflective of the reality as far as US financials are concerned. There will always be skeptical people although, in China's case, the tendency is to hide the capability not to draw too much heat and/or expectation from others.



It has been empirically verified that US stock market has experienced similar ups and downs, at times violent ups and downs. Considering the immaturity of China's stock markets, this is normal. Currencies appreciate and depreciate; still, comparing to many other regional powers, China's currency has not depreciated that much over the years. In fact, it gained a lot in the long view. Appreciation & depreciation is as much political and man-made as economic and organic/accidental.

@Shotgunner51



And you will have demographic problems as WASP population declines in relative to the other groups. Every country has advantages and disadvantages. We manage it better than you do with yours.



China's economy is in transition and, compared to the historical experience of the developed West, it has so far been better managed and less rocky. The level of development you enjoy now did not come without a cost. Read history, please.



The point is to incrementally undermine the US. Achieving that status will take time, just as how it took time for you -- you were the greatest economy from the late 1800s, but only achieved dominance after the Second World War. Nuclear triad has bought this time for China very well so far. We are just doing everything we really want with the US objecting or not. That's what is important. Speed is just relative here.



In fact, they are reinforcing our grip on the region. On this, we both look at the issue from different angles. So long as both are happy with what they have been doing, we are fine.



In a war, not only the US interests in this region, the entire continental US will be easy targets, or "pears" for us. The point is, will that war ever come? Or will we be pushing you out step by step?



There will be time for that, as well. Rumors are rumors, do not believe them until it becomes a reality. We will debate a lot when we have SCS ADIZ. Right now, it is only capability build-up that we need. Our main objective in SCS is to ensure China's national security at the finest detail.



You have your games, we have our games. We are multilitarel power; hence, we engage Latin America differently from how you engage the Asia-Pacific. We are equal players and the result is anybody's guess. You can only challenge our interests indirectly and vice versa. So, let's see which side's foreign policy is more flexible, multi-leveled, long-view and optimum.

You can sense the desperation of the American regime as it seeing the unchallenged post-Cold War status being changed by Russia and China.

The legitimacy of the American regime as the master is being eroded as its monopoly positions are being ended in economics, finance, technology, military, etc and no longer enjoying that unchallenged rule it had from 1991 to 2008.

Russia changed that status quo in 2008 with the war against Georgia where America was powerless to stop Russia.

America is being challenged by Russia in Europe and Middle East, Iran in Middle East and China is challenging it in East Asia.

It's wonderful to see that despotic American regime being challenged. Long overdue imo.

 

[TaiShang]

You can sense the desperation of the American regime as it seeing the unchallenged post-Cold War status being changed by Russia and China.

The legitimacy of the American regime as the master is being eroded as its monopoly positions are being ended in economics, finance, technology, military, etc and no longer enjoying that unchallenged rule it had from 1991 to 2008.

Russia changed that status quo in 2008 with the war against Georgia where America was powerless to stop Russia.

America is being challenged by Russia in Europe and Middle East, Iran in Middle East and China is challenging it in East Asia.

It's wonderful to see that despotic American regime being challenged. Long overdue imo.

I agree that they mismanaged and sort of squandered the precious two decades of windows of opportunity in some ideologically-charged and unrealistic foreign policy adventures. In the process, they lost their prominent trader status and started to be viewed as a pure militaristic power. Respect only goes that far if one's foreign policy is anachronistic, backward and uni-leveled.

I like them to maintain this sort of foreign affairs, because it gives China the chance to manipulate the weaknesses. The end of the entire debate is that the US won't be directly challenge China because it would be equally harmed if it attempted to harm China directly. Hence all this indirect encircling etc., which is not practical given the deep penetration China has achieved over the years across the world.

US s not be taken lightly, but also won't be taken seriously. This is what we have been doing recently.