The Coming Collapse of China: 2016 Edition

[Yizhi]

Typically you talk too much. You remind me of that one Chinese man in 血滴子 who kill many fly with strike and say he kill men not fly. Too bad he got his head cut off by 血滴子. Moral of story, don't talk big when you only swat fly.

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@Nihonjin1051 is that you?

you two sound alike.

 

[terranMarine]

I agree that they mismanaged and sort of squandered the precious two decades of windows of opportunity in some ideologically-charged and unrealistic foreign policy adventures. In the process, they lost their prominent trader status and started to be viewed as a pure militaristic power. Respect only goes that far if one's foreign policy is anachronistic, backward and uni-leveled.

I like them to maintain this sort of foreign affairs, because it gives China the chance to manipulate the weaknesses. The end of the entire debate is that the US won't be directly challenge China because it would be equally harmed if it attempted to harm China directly. Hence all this indirect encircling etc., which is not practical given the deep penetration China has achieved over the years across the world.

US s not be taken lightly, but also won't be taken seriously. This is what we have been doing recently.

That is why no matter who their new presidents will be, America will be facing the ever stronger China's economic might in the coming decades. Russia is no match for US in this area especially when yankees play the sanctioning card, that's where China comes into play. China does not have global power projection YET, here's where the Russians come into action. Both complement each other, Russia and China shall not be contained it's as simple as that. We will take care of our own backyards against US meddling affairs.

 

[Manidabest]

China needs to increase its Gold reserves....

 

[TaiShang]

That is why no matter who their new presidents will be, America will be facing the ever stronger China's economic might in the coming decades. Russia is no match for US in this area especially when yankees play the sanctioning card, that's where China comes into play. China does not have global power projection YET, here's where the Russians come into action. Both complement each other, Russia and China shall not be contained it's as simple as that. We will take care of our own backyards against US meddling affairs.

Exactly so. Couple points I like to make based on your analysis:

For the US it is an uphill battle from now on as alternative powers (mainly Russia and China) balance it in a sort of loosely synchronized way from economic and geopolitical perspectives.

The way Russia balances out the US is more visible than the way China gives the US a hard time. Russia does the hard balancing, hence the extraordinary five years from Georgian War to the ongoing Eastern Ukraine and Syria. In all of these, the US plays the alliance (economy) and military encirclement cards. Russia, although is the weaker side on the economy aspect, it is an equal of the US on the military aspect (in terms of total destruction power).

China does the soft balancing and it takes time to understand how many fronts the US has lost to China over the past decades. The implications of this will come much later for the US, but, it will be a brutal revelation.

Therefore, as you have pointed out, China and Russia are complementary powers. In a sense, it is the Eurasian bloc facing the Atlantic bloc. This has never been so in history. US took on China and Russia one by one (first China and then Russia). They failed against China but won against Russia.

If nobody wants to see mushroom clouds over the US East and West coasts, this battle has to be fought just like this: served cold. Chairman Mao knew this very well; he therefore formulated the "no first use policy" with an aggressive push for nuclear development. The moment China got nuclear, the moment it gained full sovereignty and security.

 

[Beidou2020]

I agree that they mismanaged and sort of squandered the precious two decades of windows of opportunity in some ideologically-charged and unrealistic foreign policy adventures. In the process, they lost their prominent trader status and started to be viewed as a pure militaristic power. Respect only goes that far if one's foreign policy is anachronistic, backward and uni-leveled.

I like them to maintain this sort of foreign affairs, because it gives China the chance to manipulate the weaknesses. The end of the entire debate is that the US won't be directly challenge China because it would be equally harmed if it attempted to harm China directly. Hence all this indirect encircling etc., which is not practical given the deep penetration China has achieved over the years across the world.

US s not be taken lightly, but also won't be taken seriously. This is what we have been doing recently.

Exactly so. Couple points I like to make based on your analysis:

For the US it is an uphill battle from now on as alternative powers (mainly Russia and China) balance it in a sort of loosely synchronized way from economic and geopolitical perspectives.

The way Russia balances out the US is more visible than the way China gives the US a hard time. Russia does the hard balancing, hence the extraordinary five years from Georgian War to the ongoing Eastern Ukraine and Syria. In all of these, the US plays the alliance (economy) and military encirclement cards. Russia, although is the weaker side on the economy aspect, it is an equal of the US on the military aspect (in terms of total destruction power).

China does the soft balancing and it takes time to understand how many fronts the US has lost to China over the past decades. The implications of this will come much later for the US, but, it will be a brutal revelation.

Therefore, as you have pointed out, China and Russia are complementary powers. In a sense, it is the Eurasian bloc facing the Atlantic bloc. This has never been so in history. US took on China and Russia one by one (first China and then Russia). They failed against China but won against Russia.

If nobody wants to see mushroom clouds over the US East and West coasts, this battle has to be fought just like this: served cold. Chairman Mao knew this very well; he therefore formulated the "no first use policy" with an aggressive push for nuclear development. The moment China got nuclear, the moment it gained full sovereignty and security.

Outstanding analysis.

I still can't believe you haven't got a "think tank" status. @Hu Songshan should nominate you for "think tank" status because you always do excellent analysis.

Someone give TaiShang "think tank" status.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Neither does Trump believe US figures are reflective of the reality as far as US financials are concerned. There will always be skeptical people although, in China's case, the tendency is to hide the capability not to draw too much heat and/or expectation from others.



It has been empirically verified that US stock market has experienced similar ups and downs, at times violent ups and downs. Considering the immaturity of China's stock markets, this is normal. Currencies appreciate and depreciate; still, comparing to many other regional powers, China's currency has not depreciated that much over the years. In fact, it gained a lot in the long view. Appreciation & depreciation is as much political and man-made as economic and organic/accidental.

@Shotgunner51



And you will have demographic problems as WASP population declines in relative to the other groups. Every country has advantages and disadvantages. We manage it better than you do with yours.



China's economy is in transition and, compared to the historical experience of the developed West, it has so far been better managed and less rocky. The level of development you enjoy now did not come without a cost. Read history, please.



The point is to incrementally undermine the US. Achieving that status will take time, just as how it took time for you -- you were the greatest economy from the late 1800s, but only achieved dominance after the Second World War. Nuclear triad has bought this time for China very well so far. We are just doing everything we really want with the US objecting or not. That's what is important. Speed is just relative here.



In fact, they are reinforcing our grip on the region. On this, we both look at the issue from different angles. So long as both are happy with what they have been doing, we are fine.



In a war, not only the US interests in this region, the entire continental US will be easy targets, or "pears" for us. The point is, will that war ever come? Or will we be pushing you out step by step?



There will be time for that, as well. Rumors are rumors, do not believe them until it becomes a reality. We will debate a lot when we have SCS ADIZ. Right now, it is only capability build-up that we need. Our main objective in SCS is to ensure China's national security at the finest detail.



You have your games, we have our games. We are multilitarel power; hence, we engage Latin America differently from how you engage the Asia-Pacific. We are equal players and the result is anybody's guess. You can only challenge our interests indirectly and vice versa. So, let's see which side's foreign policy is more flexible, multi-leveled, long-view and optimum.

Confidence and trustworthiness in the Chinese economy took a hit in 2015 due to the mismanagement of the 2015 stock market crash and 2% depreciation out of left field. There has always been skeptics, but 2015 saw a rising number of those skeptics. People just don't have the same confidence in the Chinese economy as they used to, especially as promised reform has stalled or failed to take place at all.

US demographic issues are miniscule compared to the ones China will face this century. We're still a relatively young country whose population will grow to over 400 million by 2050. China on the other hand is facing rapid aging, up to a third of your population will be over 60 by 2050, and China's overall population will peak in a decade and then decline from there through at least mid-century. An to say you've managed your population well is laughable. China's one child policy has been a well documented disaster largely of your own making. China's economy will pay for it over decades.

If China is incrementally undermining the US, your doing a poor job of it. Your bullying and recklessness in the region has pushed your neighbors into the arms of the United States. You've made it easy for us, which is why our alliances are growing stronger in the region. In effect, China is cementing US influence in the region through its own actions. Your foolish and shortsighted policies have most countries in the region working to contain you.

The US has the military capability, backed by our economic clout and alliances, to project power anywhere in the world, including at China's doorstep. This is a fact and reality, not wishful thinking.

 

[TaiShang]

Confidence and trustworthiness in the Chinese economy took a hit in 2015 due to the mismanagement of the 2015 stock market crash and 2% depreciation out of left field. There has always been skeptics, but 2015 saw a rising number of those skeptics. People just don't have the same confidence in the Chinese economy as they used to, especially as promised reform has stalled or failed to take place at all.

We do not care how many skeptics you have over there. We have our own skepticism of US economy, including its bloated numbers. But, who cares? In the end, reality cannot be silenced because it shows itself in mysterious ways like stagnated/declining wages, number of people on welfare, high school drop out rate etc.

China was the largest FDI receiver last year, with a huge portion of it going to high-end sectors. This amount of people having faith in China's econmy is enough for us. This year, too, China will be the FDI leader, according to projections.

US demographic issues are miniscule compared to the ones China will face this century. We're still a relatively young country whose population will grow to over 400 million by 2050. China on the other hand is facing rapid aging, up to a third of your population will be over 60 by 2050, and China's overall population will peak in a decade and then decline from there through at least mid-century. An to say you've managed your population well is laughable. China's one child policy has been a well documented disaster largely of your own making. China's economy will pay for it over decades.

No, you will face an uphill battle as your traditional White-dominated society is being undertaken by the minorities. No matter what problem China has, it is among the same people. China manages it, just how it initiated the transition from one-child to two-child policy. Ignoring the many details to the one-child policy, China's demographics is manageable and reflects the realities of its economy.

Your demographical problems are deeper because you have to sort it out among people who often hate each other. This is especially so between Black and Whites. What will you do when they took over in terms of sheer numbers? You will still keep the political power in the hand of a few White super elites? Good luck with that. The thing is, you have so many vulnerabilities that anybody can take advantage of.

If China is incrementally undermining the US, your doing a poor job of it. Your bullying and recklessness in the region has pushed your neighbors into the arms of the United States. You've made it easy for us, which is why our alliances are growing stronger in the region. In effect, China is cementing US influence in the region through its own actions. Your foolish and shortsighted policies have most countries in the region working to contain you.

Your idea of alliance is outdated, hence, you reflect the exact mindset of your country. This is good for us to hear, but tragic for you. Good luck with your a number of allies, you will need them in the future. Make sure they are better than Mr. Saakashvili of Georgia, who is now a PM in liberated Ukraine.

No country is containing us. We are managing them. They are dancing to the tune of our own playing. However, it was a real blessing that Mr. Obama trashed the "reset" with Russia under Medvedev; that was the point I was (as an MA student then) most concerned about. Now my concerns are eased.

The US has the military capability, backed by our economic clout and alliances, to project power anywhere in the world, including at China's doorstep. This is a fact and reality, not wishful thinking.

You have military capability and NATO to act on it, for sure. If that was what we really wanted, we would buy a number of allies and make them into an alliance. This is, however, not how we work. So, that's mostly due to divergent foreign policy formulations of the two countries. Your economic clout, on the other hand, is being undermined because now China offers a better alternative.

Your country is extremely powerful and has sheer destruction capability, for sure. We do not deny it or are blind to it. But whatever you have is worthless to us because you cannot mobilize them against us. Hence the reason for small tricks you play like running NGOs, unleashing MSM regime media on us, cooking stuff with some radicalized students etc. You cannot go full Iraq on us. That's the point. Your toys are impressive for small countries. For us they are just milestones we need to achieve.

 

[Super Falcon]

Well entire world is collapsing china is no exception all US fault due to iran oil all mess stated