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Tension escalate as IRGC shoots down US Spy Drone

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President Trump ordered military strike on Iran, but reversed at last second


Iran is fortunate to say the least. It will be interesting to see where they go from here.

LOL. I was wondering how the americans were going to try to save face. There is no way in hell they have the courage to attack Iranian homeland. so the face saving campaign starts.

"it was a mistake"
"Trump ordered a massive strike!! but he changed his mind last second"
so far 2 excuses.

the commander of the IRGC explicitly said this was a message that were ready for war... the US has to do something substantial here to save face. this was a direct, and delibrate attack on a 200 million dollar American military asset.

at some point, you draw your red line, pick your hill to die on and hold your ground .surrendering your vital national interests and accepting humiliation just to avoid war is not an option. Iran has made their intentions clear. the balls in the orange mans court. is he going to do anything or wait for the next Iranian shot?
 
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Patience and wisdom are not weakness..otherwise China is also weak for not responding to US moves in South China sea?

To be fair, I think China and Iran are in different situation.

China GDP grow 6.5% each year, which means an UK or France or India every 2.5 years, a Germany every 3 years, a Japan every 4 years. Just think about it.

US add $700 billion GDP last year, China add $1000+ billion GDP last year.

The whole world grow $17.25 trillion in 2008-2017. China grow $7.64 trillion in 2008-2017. US grow $4.68 trillion in 2008-2017. The rest of the world grow $4.93 trillion in 2008-2017.

In comparison, Iran GDP is $406 billion in 2008, $439 billion in 2017.

You see my point? Iran is suffering. That's the difference.

When China was suffering in 20th century, China was mad too, seriously very mad :angry: . We had wars with US directly in Korean peninsula. 150 thousands US soldiers died/wounded in Korea War. Total 5 millions people killed/wounded in this war.

I am not defending anyone or offending anyone. I am just analyzing the Iranian psychology. They were badly treated, really badly. First by UK and Soviet UN, then US, then Iraq, then US for more than 100 years.

If I am Iranian, I won't bow. US pressure won't make a deal, most likely lead to war.
 
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one HUGE problem with the US story that's not getting discussed is the transponder being off.

even if its international waters. its so close to Iranian borders that flying a transponder off aircraft in that vicinity is endangering civilian Iranian air traffic.

would the US like it if a foreign spy plane turned off its transponder, and started hovering around civilian air space and potentially endangering civilian aircraft?

the US doesn't necessarily have the best record when it comes to savagely murdering civilians on airliners. Iran has every right to shoot down any American aircraft violating international aviation laws by endangering Iranian airspace in such a reckless manner.

Bro, I am not against you. I am just saying the RQ-4 Global Hawk flies less than twice the height of Boeing 737.

China doesn’t have courage to do that. You see how fast the capitulated to USA demand to change their laws under US tariff pressure and only in the last minutes they changed their mind.
China did that purposely. We got 2+ years by just talking. How long Trump can stay in power? Just 1+ year.
 
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The cause is created; the legitimacy building is in progress before the relatiation.

Regardless, Mullahs pulled the trigger first for the legit. retaliation to follow; so far so good.
 
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It's probably the only nation that can afford a war. Even spending trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan has not done any major damage to the US, and in fact had actually been good for the economy, as it created a lot of job opportunities, as well as showed off their weapons systems to sell to foreign nations. Of course there is a human cost, and that is tragic, but if I may be bit cold hearted here, war has been quite profitable for the US.

US spent 6 trillions on Afghanistan and Iraq if you count everything. The consequence is severe. US weapons are aging and 700 billion budget can't cover wear and tear, including aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, bombers.

More importantly, US lost it's hegemony because of the renaissance of China. The war in Afghanistan is meaningless if US can't maintain the power balance in East Asia. US can barely maintain the balance with Japan's input for now, but won't last long.

A wise hegemony should calculate ROI carefully. The Great British Empire fell because 2 Anglo-Boer Wars and 2 World Wars.

In US, many realists like John Mearsheimer believe the most important geopolitical area is not ME anymore. US foreign policy makers, political scientists and international relations scholars start to rethink the involvement in ME.
 
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