Taiwan worries it will lose TSMC after Morris Chang confirmed its 3nm fabs and more engineers will be moved to US.

[kankan326]

"Will TSMC eventually become American asset?" Recently it became hottest topic in all Taiwan media

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280374.shtml

 

[FuturePAF]

Taiwanese people are right to worry. If they don’t have this insurance policy of the most advanced fab in their territory, it will make reunification more likely.

Although for China, the false sense of urgency may trick them into thinking they have to go ASAP, before they are ready. But this only proves, the ground work is being laid to allow for reunification without disrupting the global economy.

Once the scourge of Covid is finally dealt with by China and the economy is fully back up and running, things will appear more clear.

 

[GiantPanda]

The long term US plan is to reduce Taiwan's chip sector because they think it is under risk.

Can the West wean itself off Taiwan’s semiconductors?

Taiwan accounts for around two-thirds of semiconductor production, but tensions with China have underlined the fragility of the global chip supply chain

www.raconteur.net

 

[FuturePAF]

The long term US plan is to reduce Taiwan's chip sector because they think it is under risk.

Can the West wean itself off Taiwan’s semiconductors?

Taiwan accounts for around two-thirds of semiconductor production, but tensions with China have underlined the fragility of the global chip supply chain

www.raconteur.net

Basically Deleveraging, and probably something insisted upon by American investors, such as Buffett.

 

[jhungary]

Basically Deleveraging, and probably something insisted upon by American investors, such as Buffett.

There are no "behind the scenes" conspiracy on this. Only 1 issue. That is if the world willing to go without TSMC semiconductor.

If, that is a big IF, China goes to war with Taiwan, then the Taiwanese would face a very serious dilemma - Do they destroy the entire semiconductor industry themselves, so it did not fall into Chinese hand? Because if they do, 90% of advance semiconductor supply would be wiped out at an instant. If they do not, China don't have the capability to operate those plant and most likely will wreck them and it goes the same way as TSMC people destroying those plant themselves, if they aren't destroyed in the fighting to begin with..

More likely than not, the US will insist Taiwan to shut down TSMC and destroy their facilities and technology know how so they won't fall into Chinese hand or even shut it down for them, if that were the case, that would mean unless TSMC have lab and fab outside Taiwan. We can't maintain the current advance semi-conductor supply, which would make the 2020-2022 chip shortage looks like a walk in a park. On the other hand, it will take TSMC years if not decade (I read it somewhere saying those plant in AZ and Israel TSMC is building is going to take decade to catch up with the Fab in Taiwan) to calibrate those output to replace the production line currently in Taiwan.

Which mean for Taiwan, those plants are even more important, because that is the leverage on the US to discourage Chinese ambition to reunited Taiwan with force, simply because that is the best-case scenario, because in any other case, everybody lost.

 

[kankan326]

Taiwanese people are right to worry. If they don’t have this insurance policy of the most advanced fab in their territory, it will make reunification more likely.

Although for China, the false sense of urgency may trick them into thinking they have to go ASAP, before they are ready. But this only proves, the ground work is being laid to allow for reunification without disrupting the global economy.

Once the scourge of Covid is finally dealt with by China and the economy is fully back up and running, things will appear more clear.

Please don't mention China's reunification here. TSMC is never a reason for the reunification. TSMC will be useless for China after losing west technology and equipment support.

 

[Menthol]

China - Taiwan war will be started once the move is completed.

USA will provoke China to invade Taiwan, so USA will have a chance (or the right excuse) to destroy China once and for all.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Taiwanese people are right to worry. If they don’t have this insurance policy of the most advanced fab in their territory, it will make reunification more likely.

Although for China, the false sense of urgency may trick them into thinking they have to go ASAP, before they are ready. But this only proves, the ground work is being laid to allow for reunification without disrupting the global economy.

Once the scourge of Covid is finally dealt with by China and the economy is fully back up and running, things will appear more clear.

This is more likely Apple coming under pressure from the US Government to wake up to supplies being cut and thus a possible worldwide sales collapse if there is a war. Remember Apple doesn't have to get 100% of their supply covered...just enough so it wouldn't be a complete disaster.

Apple to TSMC: "Move chip production to the US and we'll be your customer FOREVER"

Report says Apple, TSMC talk about moving 3nm chip production to U.S.

Apple and TSMC are reportedly discussing how the latter can move its 3nm chip production to the United States.

www.phonearena.com

 

[Beny Karachun]

Taiwanese people are right to worry. If they don’t have this insurance policy of the most advanced fab in their territory, it will make reunification more likely.

Although for China, the false sense of urgency may trick them into thinking they have to go ASAP, before they are ready. But this only proves, the ground work is being laid to allow for reunification without disrupting the global economy.

Once the scourge of Covid is finally dealt with by China and the economy is fully back up and running, things will appear more clear.

Nope, it will make reunification worthless. We all know China is aiming to take Taiwan to disrupt the global chip market.

 

[gambit]

On the other hand, it will take TSMC years if not decade (I read it somewhere saying those plant in AZ and Israel TSMC is building is going to take decade to catch up with the Fab in Taiwan) to calibrate those output to replace the production line currently in Taiwan.

It will not, if we discount the construction of the fabs, which includes installation of all the tools. When words became official that TSMC, Intel, and Micron will expand in the US, I was headhunted to AZ, so I started asking questions in my (engineering) network.

All the major semicon manufacturers have their own version of Intel's 'Copy Smart' program.

Copy Exactly! - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Despite its simple concept, it is actually very difficult in execution, and I do not use the word 'very' in a casual manner. It require a near military discipline level of doing anything. You have at best a %5 margin of flexibility in doing anything, and whatever deviation encountered that require you going outside of that margin, you need M2 or even 'Director' level approval, meaning going back to Santa Clara, virtually or physically, to explain the why/what/when/where the deviation occurred. For example, Asians are generally shorter statures than Europeans so tools must be ergonomically adjusted from site to site, and this would be a 'Director' level approval change because ergonomics were found to have direct correlation to yield.

Anyway...Once a site is physically up and running wafers, it has taken Intel as soon as two wafer start cycles for products to be commercially accepted. Industry norm is four cycles or two yrs. A wafer start cycle is literally from when a batch starts its first chemical cleanse to when the wafers leave the Probe Dept, where I am currently working, and that is about 4-6 months. So halving the time for a site to be commercially accepted is an accomplishment. So if we are looking at 2-3 yrs of fab construction, maybe stretching out to 4 yrs to accommodate delays, then 1 to 1.5 yrs for product acceptance, we are looking at 5-6 yrs for TSMC US to match Taiwan's. It will not be easy but it is doable.

The bottom line here is that the combination of COVID and the Ukraine-Russia war shocked the First World countries into realizing how foolish we were in being so dependent on Asia for semicon products, and how threatening China is to that global stability of semicon products. The belief, rightly or wrongly, is that the CPC is willing to destroy the industry over Taiwan, and everyone is willing to spend billions to preserve the industry. Geography and geopolitical considerations made CONUS the safest place to preserve and expand the industry. The EU is slightly less secure because of the proximity to Russia, as we are experiencing that vulnerability now.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Nope, it will make reunification worthless. We all know China is aiming to take Taiwan to disrupt the global chip market.

Actually China is trying to take over industries that Taiwan has specialized in so that if they did invade Taiwan there wouldn't be a global uproar over a parts shortage.

Nobody is really upset with Russia invading Ukraine because people can still buy their usual consumer goods. So in the eyes of most of the world Ukraine is just some minor sideshow.

However if China invaded Taiwan and people couldn't buy their favorite phone, laptop, videocard, etc due to a parts shortage that might raise a negative worldwide PR response towards China.

To mitigate this the Chinese are trying to achieve a situation where they can say "hey don't worry about the war..we can supply all the needed chips/parts that Taiwan used to supply".

To counter this the US is simply throwing stumbling blocks in their path to slow them down...like having ASML stop selling them chip making equipment..etc. Telling Taiwan to stop replicating their plants in China as they are just shooting themselves in the foot in the long term.

 

[gambit]

Actually China is trying to take over industries that Taiwan has specialized in so that if they did invade Taiwan there wouldn't be a global uproar over a parts shortage.

Nobody is really upset with Russia invading Ukraine because people can still buy their usual consumer goods. So in the eyes of most of the world Ukraine is just some minor sideshow.

However if China invaded Taiwan and people couldn't buy their favorite phone, laptop, videocard, etc due to a parts shortage that might raise a negative worldwide PR response towards China.

To mitigate this the Chinese are trying to achieve a situation where they can say "hey don't worry about the war..we can supply all the needed chips/parts that Taiwan used to supply".

To counter this the US is simply throwing stumbling blocks in their path to slow them down...like having ASML stop selling them chip making equipment..etc. Telling Taiwan to stop replicating their plants in China as they are just shooting themselves in the foot in the long term.

If there is a shooting war between China and Taiwan, Taiwan's semicon industry will be destroyed. Does not matter by who. The nature of warfare itself will destroy it. Everyone in the industry knows it. For those who have been in the military, we know that 'precision' weapons are not always precise. Geography made Taiwan's semicon industry close to the battlefronts and there will be more than a 'few' errant missiles, artillery rounds, and pilot errors.

 

[Zsari]

There are no "behind the scenes" conspiracy on this. Only 1 issue. That is if the world willing to go without TSMC semiconductor.

If, that is a big IF, China goes to war with Taiwan, then the Taiwanese would face a very serious dilemma - Do they destroy the entire semiconductor industry themselves, so it did not fall into Chinese hand? Because if they do, 90% of advance semiconductor supply would be wiped out at an instant. If they do not, China don't have the capability to operate those plant and most likely will wreck them and it goes the same way as TSMC people destroying those plant themselves, if they aren't destroyed in the fighting to begin with..

More likely than not, the US will insist Taiwan to shut down TSMC and destroy their facilities and technology know how so they won't fall into Chinese hand or even shut it down for them, if that were the case, that would mean unless TSMC have lab and fab outside Taiwan. We can't maintain the current advance semi-conductor supply, which would make the 2020-2022 chip shortage looks like a walk in a park. On the other hand, it will take TSMC years if not decade (I read it somewhere saying those plant in AZ and Israel TSMC is building is going to take decade to catch up with the Fab in Taiwan) to calibrate those output to replace the production line currently in Taiwan.

Which mean for Taiwan, those plants are even more important, because that is the leverage on the US to discourage Chinese ambition to reunited Taiwan with force, simply because that is the best-case scenario, because in any other case, everybody lost.

No war needed. TSMC is taking apart their plant and moving them to the US along with all the engineers. Once the move are completed, Taiwan will be discarded.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

If there is a shooting war between China and Taiwan, Taiwan's semicon industry will be destroyed. Does not matter by who. The nature of warfare itself will destroy it. Everyone in the industry knows it. For those who have been in the military, we know that 'precision' weapons are not always precise. Geography made Taiwan's semicon industry close to the battlefronts and there will be more than a 'few' errant missiles, artillery rounds, and pilot errors.

Oh I have no doubt that Taiwan's chip industry will be decimated. The question is China will hold up its hand and say "Don't worry our factories will take up the slack" which will make the developing world happy..but not the developed world...so then what...

There's always vulnerabilities..I can't even be on the same plane with some people in my company in case it goes down. I'm sure the US would like to see key TSMC knowledge spread out across multiple continents.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

There are no "behind the scenes" conspiracy on this. Only 1 issue. That is if the world willing to go without TSMC semiconductor.

If, that is a big IF, China goes to war with Taiwan, then the Taiwanese would face a very serious dilemma - Do they destroy the entire semiconductor industry themselves, so it did not fall into Chinese hand? Because if they do, 90% of advance semiconductor supply would be wiped out at an instant. If they do not, China don't have the capability to operate those plant and most likely will wreck them and it goes the same way as TSMC people destroying those plant themselves, if they aren't destroyed in the fighting to begin with..

More likely than not, the US will insist Taiwan to shut down TSMC and destroy their facilities and technology know how so they won't fall into Chinese hand or even shut it down for them, if that were the case, that would mean unless TSMC have lab and fab outside Taiwan. We can't maintain the current advance semi-conductor supply, which would make the 2020-2022 chip shortage looks like a walk in a park. On the other hand, it will take TSMC years if not decade (I read it somewhere saying those plant in AZ and Israel TSMC is building is going to take decade to catch up with the Fab in Taiwan) to calibrate those output to replace the production line currently in Taiwan.

Which mean for Taiwan, those plants are even more important, because that is the leverage on the US to discourage Chinese ambition to reunited Taiwan with force, simply because that is the best-case scenario, because in any other case, everybody lost.

It will not, if we discount the construction of the fabs, which includes installation of all the tools. When words became official that TSMC, Intel, and Micron will expand in the US, I was headhunted to AZ, so I started asking questions in my (engineering) network.

All the major semicon manufacturers have their own version of Intel's 'Copy Smart' program.

Copy Exactly! - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Despite its simple concept, it is actually very difficult in execution, and I do not use the word 'very' in a casual manner. It require a near military discipline level of doing anything. You have at best a %5 margin of flexibility in doing anything, and whatever deviation encountered that require you going outside of that margin, you need M2 or even 'Director' level approval, meaning going back to Santa Clara, virtually or physically, to explain the why/what/when/where the deviation occurred. For example, Asians are generally shorter statures than Europeans so tools must be ergonomically adjusted from site to site, and this would be a 'Director' level approval change because ergonomics were found to have direct correlation to yield.

Anyway...Once a site is physically up and running wafers, it has taken Intel as soon as two wafer start cycles for products to be commercially accepted. Industry norm is four cycles or two yrs. A wafer start cycle is literally from when a batch starts its first chemical cleanse to when the wafers leave the Probe Dept, where I am currently working, and that is about 4-6 months. So halving the time for a site to be commercially accepted is an accomplishment. So if we are looking at 2-3 yrs of fab construction, maybe stretching out to 4 yrs to accommodate delays, then 1 to 1.5 yrs for product acceptance, we are looking at 5-6 yrs for TSMC US to match Taiwan's. It will not be easy but it is doable.

The bottom line here is that the combination of COVID and the Ukraine-Russia war shocked the First World countries into realizing how foolish we were in being so dependent on Asia for semicon products, and how threatening China is to that global stability of semicon products. The belief, rightly or wrongly, is that the CPC is willing to destroy the industry over Taiwan, and everyone is willing to spend billions to preserve the industry. Geography and geopolitical considerations made CONUS the safest place to preserve and expand the industry. The EU is slightly less secure because of the proximity to Russia, as we are experiencing that vulnerability now.

Actually China is trying to take over industries that Taiwan has specialized in so that if they did invade Taiwan there wouldn't be a global uproar over a parts shortage.

Nobody is really upset with Russia invading Ukraine because people can still buy their usual consumer goods. So in the eyes of most of the world Ukraine is just some minor sideshow.

However if China invaded Taiwan and people couldn't buy their favorite phone, laptop, videocard, etc due to a parts shortage that might raise a negative worldwide PR response towards China.

To mitigate this the Chinese are trying to achieve a situation where they can say "hey don't worry about the war..we can supply all the needed chips/parts that Taiwan used to supply".

To counter this the US is simply throwing stumbling blocks in their path to slow them down...like having ASML stop selling them chip making equipment..etc. Telling Taiwan to stop replicating their plants in China as they are just shooting themselves in the foot in the long term.

The questions is how the dumb idiotic current generation americans build the chips?

Only Chinese (including the Taiwanese) have the brains to build any complex technology.

The current day americans are only good at watching shows like the biggest loser.

China - Taiwan war will be started once the move is completed.

USA will provoke China to invade Taiwan, so USA will have a chance (or the right excuse) to destroy China once and for all.

There won't be any war.

Taiwan will be a repeat of HK 2.0

US is just trying to salvage the situation but it won't work unless US does a Operation Paperclip 2.0 to kidnap and airlift all Taiwanese working at TSMC.

Americans are incapable of building complex tech like IC Chips.