Taiwan worries it will lose TSMC after Morris Chang confirmed its 3nm fabs and more engineers will be moved to US.

[kankan326]

Honestly speaking.

Do you truly want that "unification"? Even though that would certainly mean a war with potentially hundreds of thousands of dead, or far more if it becomes a world war?

This situation is not like us with the Palestinians, there are no real battles, no one died, no bad blood. China seems to be succeeding without Taiwan so there's no need for it, why risk such a war?

Geopolitically to say Taiwan is China's Jerusalem. And Taiwan is a reward for China sacrificed milions of lives in the world war 2. Chinese already shed blood for Taiwan. It can not be taken by others easily.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Everyone is now taking seriously the prospect of a China-Taiwan war and everyone is now actively preparing... Taiwan supplies so much of the semiconductors and electronics that the world consumes - both the EU, and the USA have launched initiatives to bring manufacturing of semiconductors back to their respective countries. Taiwan can of course realise the "gig" is up and rejoin voluntarily but they do seem to want to make a "fight out of it" for sure before they submit !!! Taiwans chances are not good - no matter the support from USA as China itself so much better organised than Russia was/is for the Ukraine war.

The question is - will the Americans get directly involved - it will need direct involvement as Taiwan is an island, so there are no neighbours that can be used to supply weapons as is the case for Ukraine..

 

[gambit]

I don't know, I have read a RAND report somewhere that said those new Intel and TSMC fab would take years if not decade for them to be operational in a capacity as the one in Taiwan.

Years is true, but not a decade. That am confident.

I also doubt Taiwan will transfer everything from Taiwan to the US or Israel because as I said, that is probably the ultimate leverage the Taiwanese has not just to the US but also the entire world to do something so China won't do a hostile take over, if they really do transfer their technology, then geopolitically, they are probably signing their own death warrant....

Each fab is responsible for continuous process improvements. If Fab A found a way to do something faster/shorter and/or more efficient, the new process will be made global by corporate, meaning all fabs that runs the same products and processes will adopt it. Code bases are global and changes are controlled by corporate. Whatever TSMC has in Taiwan WILL be transferred to the US. Intel, Micron, TI, et al, they all works that way. It make no technical and logistical sense to have the home country 'smarter' than the overseas sites. In essence, you have home site that make more money than your subsidiaries when you know all sites could be doing the same.

 

[gambit]

Everyone is now taking seriously the prospect of a China-Taiwan war and everyone is now actively preparing...

You can credit Poutine for that...

Taiwan supplies so much of the semiconductors and electronics that the world consumes - both the EU, and the USA have launched initiatives to bring manufacturing of semiconductors back to their respective countries. Taiwan can of course realise the "gig" is up and rejoin voluntarily but they do seem to want to make a "fight out of it" for sure before they submit !!! Taiwans chances are not good - no matter the support from USA as China itself so much better organised than Russia was/is for the Ukraine war.

If there is a shooting war between China and Taiwan, Taiwan's semicon industry is dead, and everyone knows it. Semicon manufacturing is sensitive, literally. Electricity must be stable and clean. We use deionized (DI) water by the tons. Our tools must be seismically isolated, meaning our floors are not actually on the concrete but raised. The internal atmosphere is slightly positive pressurized to prevent outside contaminants. Now think of missiles and bombs falling everywhere disrupting electrical and water supplies, and inevitably there will be 'collateral damages'. Once a fab is structurally damaged, might as well raze the rest and build a new fab. So a victorious China will end up owning carcasses of Taiwan's semicon industry.

Finally, given what you now know of how badly a war will turn out for the semicon industry, you will see the argument that TSMC will keep technical secrets at home -- is silly. TSMC and everyone else will offload their technical capabilities to survive and to continue business.

The question is - will the Americans get directly involved - it will need direct involvement as Taiwan is an island, so there are no neighbours that can be used to supply weapons as is the case for Ukraine..

The more Russia loses, the greater the odds of the US and other Asian countries get involved in the defense of Taiwan.

 

[925boy]

Main motive for US to move TSMC out of Taiwan and into US is in case of war- China can easily destroy TSMC - and that would be a huge blow to US and their allies' business, period.

If you still think today that China cant roll over Taiwan (at a cost offcourse), that means you're still living in a year like 2004 or 2005. - the game is different today- US will get exhausted supporting Taiwan, that's how its looking already now - if US doesnt have enough ammunition TODAY for its own military (from giving Ukraine too many equipments that Russia is destroying), then how can it so properly and effectively support Taiwan if a war broke out now? China has same advantage Russia has now- China will fight close to home- Taiwan is just across a small strait- China can keep resupplying and overwhelm Taiwan over time. If China establishes a "security bubble" around Taiwan, then countdown for surrender has started for Taiwan.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

These racist slayer always believe any technology marvel of breakthru always need a white man behind their success. TSMC rise up without them must have leave them bewildered....

Morris Chang worked in the US IC industry for ~30 years (mostly for Texas Instruments) before going back to Taiwan in the 1970's to take a job to help switch Taiwan from mostly an agricultural economy to something higher. They even licensed chip creation technology from RCA.

It's not like this guy woke up one day and started building a foundary from scratch. The Taiwanese government (not investors) gave him (and others) whatever money he needed to build a worldclass chip company and that is what he did.

For once I agree with you. I don't know why some idiot so easily believe Taiwanese really stupid enough to transfer their know how to USA.

You mean just like what RCA did for Taiwan to get them up and running in the chip business?

Permission deny

Veteran tells story of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry​

In the early 1970s, a series of political and economic setbacks prompted the government of Taiwan to consider re-engineering the country’s economic structure. To pave the way for the transformation, then Minister of Economic Affairs Sun Yun-suan helped create the ITRI in 1973
...
With Sun taking charge and arrangements facilitated by Pan, the ITRI signed the “CMOS IC Technology Transfer Licensing Agreement” with RCA March 5, 1976, under which RCA would transfer its know-how in complementary metal-oxide semiconductor technology to Taiwan.

“I reported for duty at ITRI just a few days before it signed the deal with RCA,” Shih recalled. As part of the agreement, in April 1976 the institute sent 19 young engineers to RCA’s facilities for training in IC design, process technology, IC testing and semiconductor equipment. Later on more engineers went on the same pilgrimage to become Taiwan’s industry pioneers.

Shih was the leader of the process technology team. Other trainees included Bob Tsao, emeritus chairman of Taiwan’s first foundry, United Microelectronics Corp.; Tsai Ming-kai, chairman of the nation’s leading IC design house, MediaTek Inc.; and F.C. Tseng, vice chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker.

“As an engineer, I knew very well that my mission was to absorb as much of RCA’s technology as I could and try to convert its manufacturing processes into a set of standard operating procedures that would work for Taiwan,” Shih said.

“We were able to reach mass production within a very short period of time.

The spinoff of the ITRI IC plant became United Microelectronics Corp. in 1981, Taiwan’s first semiconductor company. In 1986 Shih joined then ITRI President Morris Chang in negotiating a partnership with the Netherlands’ Royal Philip Electronics that culminated in the establishment of TSMC in 1987. TSMC pioneered the business model of dedicated foundry manufacturing and ultimately reshuffled the global semiconductor industry.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

America nowadays is a shit place to live. those first arrivers from TSMC are already complaining.

wait till they see some good old armed robbery on the street

 

[theBill]

Veteran tells story of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry​

...I knew very well that my mission was to absorb as much of RCA’s technology as I could and try to convert its manufacturing processes into a set of standard operating procedures that would work for Taiwan,” Shih said....

Every die shrink is a new process, how many dead companies failed to shrink?
RCA became defunct in 1986 because it couldn't compete with Japanese semiconductors. TSMC started in 1987. How useful was redundant know how for TSMC?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Every die shrink is a new process, how many dead companies failed to shrink?
RCA became defunct in 1986 because it couldn't compete with Japanese semiconductors. TSMC started in 1987. How useful was redundant know how for TSMC?

How many companies were there in the early days of IC like RCA and needed to invest millions and years in R&D and manpower to get this new tech idea to work...vs companies that showed up later after the hard work was done and simply just licensed it like Taiwan did.

RCA engineers working on the Integrated electronic shift register in 1958...where's China?...where's Taiwan? Where's Japan? Who is funding all this expensive research? Martians?

 

[gambit]

If you still think today that China cant roll over Taiwan (at a cost offcourse), that means you're still living in a year like 2004 or 2005. - the game is different today- US will get exhausted supporting Taiwan, that's how its looking already now - if US doesnt have enough ammunition TODAY for its own military (from giving Ukraine too many equipments that Russia is destroying), then how can it so properly and effectively support Taiwan if a war broke out now? China has same advantage Russia has now- China will fight close to home- Taiwan is just across a small strait- China can keep resupplying and overwhelm Taiwan over time. If China establishes a "security bubble" around Taiwan, then countdown for surrender has started for Taiwan.

If a China-Taiwan war break out now? The real question is: Can China start that war now? If not, then your criticism of our ammo shortage is pointless because we can build it back up while waiting for China to decide when to start that war. I hope the Parade Line Army (PLA) hire you as a...aaahhhh...'strategist'...

 

[Beny Karachun]

Main motive for US to move TSMC out of Taiwan and into US is in case of war- China can easily destroy TSMC - and that would be a huge blow to US and their allies' business, period.

If you still think today that China cant roll over Taiwan (at a cost offcourse), that means you're still living in a year like 2004 or 2005. - the game is different today- US will get exhausted supporting Taiwan, that's how its looking already now - if US doesnt have enough ammunition TODAY for its own military (from giving Ukraine too many equipments that Russia is destroying), then how can it so properly and effectively support Taiwan if a war broke out now? China has same advantage Russia has now- China will fight close to home- Taiwan is just across a small strait- China can keep resupplying and overwhelm Taiwan over time. If China establishes a "security bubble" around Taiwan, then countdown for surrender has started for Taiwan.

Russia is losing badly in its own backyard, a 10,000 ton Russian cruiser got sunk by the practically nonexistent anti-ship capability Ukraine has.

Taiwan strait isn't small, it's almost 200km away from China. Establishing a beachhead in Taiwan would be practically impossible with today's standoff weapons.

If a China-Taiwan war break out now? The real question is: Can China start that war now? If not, then your criticism of our ammo shortage is pointless because we can build it back up while waiting for China to decide when to start that war. I hope the Parade Line Army (PLA) hire you as a...aaahhhh...'strategist'...

Don't try and reason with him, he's absolutely retarded, all he does is make false assumptions that benefit his views and disregards any (and much more probable) possibilities that benefits his enemy.

 

[theBill]

....companies that showed up later after the hard work was done and simply just licensed it like Taiwan did....

Innovation isn't droped because you hold a license. You think TSMC is using know-how from 1980's to produce modern chips? As little as I know, every die shrink renders tech obsolete. It means complete innovation across the whole production process, TSMC had to innovate from the get go.
I've seen this logic elsewhere, people like you say "west invented the TV". Yeah, but no one is using a chunky 1900s crt to watch content, innovation has moved way beyond what you claim.

RCA engineers working on the Integrated electronic shift register in 1958..

That's a nice mechanical-analogue register, but Japan dominated US because it was able to digitize its electronics. Not suprising when NEC engineer Akira Nakashima invented switching theory in the 1930's laying the foundation for digital circuit design.
The memory company Intel travelled all the way to Japan to take the CPU concept from Sharp's Tadashi Sasaki. Intel hired HOF Masatoshi Shima to help produce the worlds first CPU, because
"Intel did not have any logic designer at all who would be able to understand the proposed schematic".

Where's China?

Ask a Chinese National; It was sanctioned, closed off, and going through political turmoil.
I do know it created it's own indigenous computer, the Model 107, the same year RCA was tickering with that shift register.

Where's Taiwan?

Training US engineers for the past year. They are so confident in these US engineers they are uprooting 300 TW engineers to baby sit at TSMC AZ.
TMSC Burn-Jen Lin developed immersion lithography & ASML just...

showed up later after the hard work was done and smiply just licensed it.