SU-57 and PAF | Opinions/Discussions

[araz]

Why do you think that is? Due to Thunders in numbers or due to AZM being just half decade away ? Or both ?

Sir Khafee did mention our intentions for J-15 land optimized version but no news on it yet !!!

Within 5 years we will have enough confidence to venture out and do an NGF version if required. With increasing grasp over Radars and avionics we do not need to be dependent on anyone anymore. See what we have done with the M3/5S, with increasing confidence do you not think we will venture out and expand more on our own pup? I think the potential of JFT is exhausted with this frame so we may have to go and do and NGF version by reopening this frame and seeing what potential there is. This remains my own opinion. For what it is worth I do not see our own indegenous fighter of the 5th generation till 2035 (at least in any meaningful number to have an impact) with first prototypes coming out in late 20s early 30s. So we will need to have an NGF version of the JFT. If we get another off the shelf 5th generation fighter in the interim then things might change.

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[StormBreaker]

Within 5cyears we will have enough confidence to venture out and do an NGF version if required. With increasing grasp over Radars and avionics we do not need to be dependent on anyone anymore. See what we have done with the M3/5S, with increasing confidence do you notvthink we will venture out and expand more on our own pup. I think the potential of JFT is exhausted with this frame so we may have to go and do and NGF version. This remains my own opinion. For what it is worth I do not see an indegenous fighter of the 5th generation till 2035 (at least in any meaningful number to have an impact) with first prototypes coming out in late 20s early 30s. So we will need to have an NGF version of the JFT.
A

I have always wished for AZM to take all the time it wants to directly jump to 5++ or even 6th Generation. By 2027-30, things will start to become clear, how USA, China, France and Germany moves forward with a new generation.

By then, we can atleast modify our own design here & there keeping in mind that we will implement those 6th gen technologies as time passes by but not restriced by DESIGN as AZM will be a mainstay for another 3-4 decades so no compromise on design.

Avionics and all can keep on developing later on.

However, NGF, i believe should be another JV with China and it must be pursued before AZM and post Block 3/4 or in midst. We must develop a single engine 5th Gen design with China, and try to keep its induction timeline to 2027-28 MAX.

Requirement of 5th Gen Aircraft will be imminent in the next 5-6 years if India by any Miracle gets an offer of F-35 or inducts Rafales in huge.

By having single engine 5th Gen fighters, even in small numbers such as 50, will give us a huge edge over india as well as queues of nations lining up to buy the fighter.

This is a MUST to Pursue

Within 5cyears we will have enough confidence to venture out and do an NGF version if required. With increasing grasp over Radars and avionics we do not need to be dependent on anyone anymore. See what we have done with the M3/5S, with increasing confidence do you notvthink we will venture out and expand more on our own pup. I think the potential of JFT is exhausted with this frame so we may have to go and do and NGF version. This remains my own opinion. For what it is worth I do not see an indegenous fighter of the 5th generation till 2035 (at least in any meaningful number to have an impact) with first prototypes coming out in late 20s early 30s. So we will need to have an NGF version of the JFT.
A

How likely are you seeing the J-15 thing to become real eventually ?

(P.S - Unlike J-11/16, J-15 design was obtained through Ukraine from Ukrainian SU-33s so they don’t have the re-export hurdles so Suitable for PN)

 

[Muhammad Omar]

They will not ask anything like that Americas biggest trading partner is China plus Pak is not a small country it's big enough can't be ignor. Americans don't care about india yes its theior trading partner but not like China and Japan. After blk 3 Pak doesn't need F16s blk 70 yes older will get V upgrades but Pak should use CSF funds for F35. I don't see any issue like 80s they offered Us F16s when nobody Beleive on it but we got it.


F35 project is American BRI like china's BRI. With CSF Pak should negotiate F35 plus building some parts for export lot 13 of F35 will be less than 100 million per copy.

Nope We should collaborate with turkey and China in making 5th generation plane for local production like JF-17 rather then US planes with a lot of strings attached to it

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

My vote would be make our own FGF design for air superiority or work with Turks on TFX.

Then make a medium weight stealth or semi stealth multi role to replace JF17 and to complement the new air superiority fighter.

3rdly drone swarmes. That's the future. Also increase strength of blinders sqn(the least appreciated player in Swift Retort).

 

[mingle]

Nope We should collaborate with turkey and China in making 5th generation plane for local production like JF-17 rather then US planes with a lot of strings attached to it

Up's and Down in turkish policies towards west I doubt TFX will materialize any time Soon engine will be big issue. Lets hope theior policies settle beacuse if they have to use Russian engine then SU 57 is not a bad option for them.
F35 is great plane even bit strings attach like F16 s they will very handy against india.

 

[araz]

I have always wished for AZM to take all the time it wants to directly jump to 5++ or even 6th Generation. By 2027-30, things will start to become clear, how USA, China, France and Germany moves forward with a new generation.

By then, we can atleast modify our own design here & there keeping in mind that we will implement those 6th gen technologies as time passes by but not restriced by DESIGN as AZM will be a mainstay for another 3-4 decades so no compromise on design.

Avionics and all can keep on developing later on.

However, NGF, i believe should be another JV with China and it must be pursued before AZM and post Block 3/4 or in midst. We must develop a single engine 5th Gen design with China, and try to keep its induction timeline to 2027-28 MAX.

Requirement of 5th Gen Aircraft will be imminent in the next 5-6 years if India by any Miracle gets an offer of F-35 or inducts Rafales in huge.

By having single engine 5th Gen fighters, even in small numbers such as 50, will give us a huge edge over india as well as queues of nations lining up to buy the fighter.

This is a MUST to Pursue


How likely are you seeing the J-15 thing to become real eventually ?

(P.S - Unlike J-11/16, J-15 design was obtained through Ukraine from Ukrainian SU-33s so they don’t have the re-export hurdles so Suitable for PN)

Azm will take a direction it takes based on PAF Experience with different technologies. I think it will be 5th generation which will be progressively improved as technology becomes available. So to guess what a product will be in 10 year's time is difficult.
I thought that an interim 5th generation fighter may be required but let us see why!
When you guage a need you guage it against the acquiditions of your adversary. They have just sunk 8 billion dollars into a platform. I cannot see them sinking another 10 tp 20 billion on another one. Now as long as they are still looking at 4++ generation fighters we should be fine(and I will explain why I think so). My own hunch is PAF wont do anything till they choose another platform which could be another 4++ Platform. I think our needs will become a lot clearer at that stage.
My own feeling is if we jump the gun and opt for a 5th generation too early they will go for F35s which might make life difficult for us. However if they have sunk another 10 to 12 billion into a single engine jet then asking them to fork out another 10 to15 billion on a 5th generation fighter would be asking for too much.
Our advantage is we have a 4+ Generation platform in house so we can afford to wait and let them play their cards out. If we are progressing smoothly towards our own 5th generation platform even then it would seem likely we will require a 4++ platform to try out our advances which should be the NGF. If things really get out of hand with numbers we might beef up numbers by procuring off the shelf platforms.
@Bilal Khan 777 pointed out in one of his posts that both J10C and the J11series are on the horizons of PAF. Some other posters have also pointed out that J10C is very close to being a done deal. Persinally I still feel we will persist with the M3/5S and sit tight while we integrate JFT. If older 16s become available we will get those to beef up numbers otherwise unless the heavensopen up and start raining dollars we are unlikely to go for anything in the interim.
In my view the choice will always be between the NGF vs the J10C for obvious reasons. Personally I would always back up the local boy rather than an outside acquisition.
J15 remains on the radar of PAF/PN but what happens remains to be seen. Let us first enjoy our new baby and see how this one progresses before we plan for how to proceed. I dont think realistically anything new will be bought till the next 2-3years. Whatever we do if itis the J11 series the Chinese will have to get permission from the Red bear to sell it on.
A

 

[StormBreaker]

Azm will take a direction it takes based on PAF Experience with different technologies. I think it will be 5th generation which will be progressively improved as technology becomes available. So to guess what a product will be in 10 year's time is difficult.
I thought that an interim 5th generation fighter may be required but let us see why!
When you guage a need you guage it against the acquiditions of your adversary. They have just sunk 8 billion dollars into a platform. I cannot see them sinking another 10 tp 20 billion on another one. Now as long as they are still looking at 4++ generation fighters we should be fine(and I will explain why I think so). My own hunch is PAF wont do anything till they choose another platform which could be another 4++ Platform. I think our needs will become a lot clearer at that stage.
My own feeling is if we jump the gun and opt for a 5th generation too early they will go for F35s which might make life difficult for us. However if they have sunk another 10 to 12 billion into a single engine jet then asking them to fork out another 10 to15 billion on a 5th generation fighter would be asking for too much.
Our advantage is we have a 4+ Generation platform in house so we can afford to wait and let them play their cards out. If we are progressing smoothly towards our own 5th generation platform even then it would seem likely we will require a 4++ platform to try out our advances which should be the NGF. If things really get out of hand with numbers we might beef up numbers by procuring off the shelf platforms.
@Bilal Khan 777 pointed out in one of his posts that both J10C and the J11series are on the horizons of PAF. Some other posters have also pointed out that J10C is very close to being a done deal. Persinally I still feel we will persist with the M3/5S and sit tight while we integrate JFT. If older 16s become available we will get those to beef up numbers otherwise unless the heavensopen up and start raining dollars we are unlikely to go for anything in the interim.
In my view the choice will always be between the NGF vs the J10C for obvious reasons. Personally I would always back up the local boy rather than an outside acquisition.
J15 remains on the radar of PAF/PN but what happens remains to be seen. Let us first enjoy our new baby and see how this one progresses before we plan for how to proceed. I dont think realistically anything new will be bought till the next 2-3years. Whatever we do if itis the J11 series the Chinese will have to get permission from the Red bear to sell it on.
A

If only we get 100-130 B3/3+ level Thunders, we would be off for a long time and this will be enough provided that we upgrade the older fleet as well and bring in upgrades for F-16s as well as get some more !!

Having a gigantic fleet is also a bad idea as serviceability rates decline

 

[araz]

If only we get 100-130 B3/3+ level Thunders, we would be off for a long time and this will be enough provided that we upgrade the older fleet as well and bring in upgrades for F-16s as well as get some more !!

Having a gigantic fleet is also a bad idea as serviceability rates decline

I think you will get a block 4 based on PAF's approach of block building. I think we should look at an NGF type project and allow our boys to spread their wings out and see what we come out with. You will get 50 Block 3s but the effect will be multiplied if they are integrated with the rest of the fleet. This is the crux of our fdefence rather than matching IAF platform for platform.
A

 

[StormBreaker]

I think you will get a block 4 based on PAF's approach of block building. I think we should look at an NGF type project and allow our boys to spread their wings out and see what we come out with. You will get 50 Block 3s but the effect will be multiplied if they are integrated with the rest of the fleet. This is the crux of our fdefence rather than matching IAF platform for platform.
A

Sometimes i think and really get surprised !!

Were the planners of 1995-2000, really some predictors or what or JUST that we are LUCKY and God is giving us infinite chances to succeed that every time, we come out as victors.

Thunder program for Pakistan is something that the word success seems less to express it Alhamdullilah !!!

As for your previous reply where you raised a point relating to triggering the neighbour into pursuing 5th gen in an emergency, you are right in that and i second that.

BUT

It is clear now, post 2030, procurements of 4/4.5/4++ fighters will be a rare news among top countries including Pakistan and India.

So taking this into account, we should spread our research and development more into 5(NGF) and 5+(AZM) projects. Since 5/5+ is inevitable, we should instead of 1, go for 2 projects. Heck, we can even get Turkey or Others into JV for a single engine fighter and that also today !!!

So in the timeline of 2029-2032, we will be inducting AZM as well As NGF

 

[araz]

Sometimes i think and really get surprised !!

Were the planners of 1995-2000, really some predictors or what or JUST that we are LUCKY and God is giving us infinite chances to succeed that every time, we come out as victors.

Thunder program for Pakistan is something that the word success seems less to express it Alhamdullilah !!!

As for your previous reply where you raised a point relating to triggering the neighbour into pursuing 5th gen in an emergency, you are right in that and i second that.

BUT

It is clear now, post 2030, procurements of 4/4.5/4++ fighters will be a rare news among top countries including Pakistan and India.

So taking this into account, we should spread our research and development more into 5(NGF) and 5+(AZM) projects. Since 5/5+ is inevitable, we should instead of 1, go for 2 projects. Heck, we can even get Turkey or Others into JV for a single engine fighter and that also today !!!

So in the timeline of 2029-2032, we will be inducting AZM as well As NGF

We are in the 20s with a 3rd generation fighter. Why do you think post30s there will only be 5th generation fighter. You will need aome bread and butter stuff in addition to 5th generation. To date their sortie rates remain low due to maintenance needs..
All success is fromAllah izza wa Jal however it is imperative on us to try and struggle. The worst kick from the US has turned us independent and changed our whole outlook. So only Allah can turn bad into good. May Allah bless Mushaf Ali Mir and his colleagues who took the policy decision to progress ahead with manufacturing rather than just being ccustomers. There was also a lot of pragmatism in accepting a platform which might not have been the best in the world but with continuous effort is making a place for itself in the world. It was also a very tactful decision to go for a light weight fighter which will always have a niche in the market.
As Always Allah must be thanked for all khair that He izza waJal brings our way.
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[StormBreaker]

We are in the 20s with a 3rd generation fighter. Why do you think post30s there will only be 5th generation fighter. You will need aome bread and butter stuff in addition to 5th generation. To date their sortie rates remain low due to maintenance needs.
A

Nope, I didn’t say Air forces won’t have 4thgen fighters.

I specifically mentioned the procurements during 2030+ will be mostly on 5th level

 

[jupiter2007]

View attachment 596916

Guys, i was giving a thought to how T-50 would have been useful for PAF.

Keeping into account, the design is extremely low RCS one and the only flaw it has is the exposed engine body underside which radiates heat so compromising its stealthines.

This discussion is solely for “WHAT-IF” discussion and not that “Pakistan have AZM” “wE maKe jF-35 stAalth” “kia zarurat hai iski jab J-20 le sakte hain”.

Nope !!!

Russia is a money bi**h. You show her some money, try to get 24-30 SU-57 and it may even get interested to get on tables wayy more than you since they have lost a lost of cash solely on the program and in dire need of customers.

We should also IGNORE the timely drawbacks of the jet mainly relating to its prospected engine which is not ready yet and thus facing some capability gap against similar in category such as F-22.

However, it is not much behind J-20 as far as avionics are concerned !!!

Russia has a good experience on engines and it will come soon with the new engine, just like China will.

SU-57, apart from all that, is quite cheaper than other 5th Gen fighters and costs around $76mn (unconfirmed).

Russia just sold S-400 to india as well as turkey.

Putin also took erdogan to an air show organized for him of a T-50 performing as well as static display !!!

SU-57 is a heavyweights fight plane with huge operational cost and it will be hard to maintain since Russia is not a reliable partner when it comes to parts and spares. J-16 make more sense then SU-57.
I think we need a medium weight (single or twin engine) fighter jet. It will be easier to maintain with reasonable operational cost.