The SC
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2012
- Messages
- 32,233
- Reaction score
- 21
- Country
- Location
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
So what does that mean? First attack with 3 prongs 100 of kilometre apart would mean they have separated their logistic zone and support zone, which mean each prong would have their own staging area, logistic and resupply element, air/ground support element. In other words, the invading force is diverse.
This could mean good thing and bad things for Ukrainian. Good thing is, Russia force is diluted, instead of facing a giant fist of 50,000-70,000 troops, Ukrainian is facing 3 front with 20,000 troop each, diluted troop concentration is susceptible to Ukrainian harassment, plus, these troop are supposed to secure key city and infrastructure. Which call into doubt whether it is doable for them to work, not to mention the risk of being defeated in detail, which if one arm failed, the whole operation gone kaput (unless there are reinforcement, which I would assume)
The only reason Turkey entered NATO was because Stalin had territorial claims on Turkey and wanted to establish Russian military control of the straits.
The Montreux agreement and the Straits Convention are in effect with the signature of Russia. (Guarantor states Turkey, Bulgaria, France, England, Japan, Romania, Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Greece) It is the only international water in which the US navy cannot show an effective naval presence, thanks to its contain.
The main purpose of the Montreux Convention is to reconcile the requirements and benefits of international maritime trade with these rights, while preserving the sovereign rights of the Republic of Turkey, which is a coastal state. In other words, a new transition regime from the Straits was accepted with Montreux, and the responsibility for the implementation and supervision of this new regime was given to Turkey.
In time of war, if Turkey is not a belligerent, warships shall enjoy full freedom of passage and round-trip (transportation) in the Straits, under the same conditions as those specified in Articles 10 to 18. However, warships of any warring State shall be prohibited from passing through the Straits.
Warships belonging to warring States, littoral or non-Black Sea, that have left their mooring ports may return to these ports.
Warships of the Warring States are prohibited from attempting any seizure, exercise of right of control (visit) and any other hostile act in the Straits.
Article 19 does not constitute an obstacle for ships of the Russian Black Sea navy to return to their bases.
Don't make yourself ridiculous by talking about things you really don't know.
The second thing I noticed is that if the Russian sole goal is to relieve Ukrainian government, then they would have done what we had done during Iraq war, we concentrate our effort to go into Baghdad and secure the government and then fan out and secure the individual objective (like TV station, airport, port, village and so on) But Russian did not do that, suggesting their motive is territorial gain. Ie capture and occupied as many land as you can.
Yes of course it makes absolutely sense from logically perspective what you have written here. You are absolutely right in the next days we will see a clearer picture what way the Russian military and Regime will go.
But regarding the escalation, from watching and seeing and reading everything on Putin and his Russia, I don’t see anything logically or rationally, neither the performance and art of war of his military on the ground nor his decision for an invasion. In my opinion, this men has a higher potential for escalating the ladders for a limited nuclear exchange, if he looses his face through a revolution or mass protests in Russia or through more and heavily loses in this ongoing war.
Have good day, by the way I served in Bundeswehr, I participated last year in Territorial Force Battalion level exercise. This year it seems out of order because of the current situation.
Welcome back J
China encouraged Putin's misadventure and now that Russian ego has been shattered the Chinese have a pliant sanctioned Russia at its mercy.
But then their southern invasion has stalled.My believe is that they are pressuring Kivy to do more landgrab in the south. South has more sea access, and valuable arable land.
That's actually an Ukrainian victory if this is the actual term of peace deal...
Scott Ritter is a former UN arms inspector in Iraq. An American, but he doesn't tow the American line. Very good interview for all those who still believe ' Mad man Putin attacked Ukraine' narrative.
Yes, as I said some post (I forgot where and when) ago, Russian doctrine dictate a giant massive Amour assault which would be hard for Russian to keep, logistic wise, if they are split up in 3.This is a very un-Russian strategy.
I ready translated Soviet military doctrine books a bit. Soviet doctrine was all about "one giant, slow armour, artillery, meatball" formation to outnumber, and outgun everything in front of it.