jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL
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I worked in Military Intelligence, you never make decision based on just a single source, you look at what the Russian do and what is the condition of the troops and you made decision with that intel in mine.1/3rd is exaggerated all forces exaggerate figures. I can guarantee you that if russia had lost so much equipment it would have completely abandon this operation. Osint like organization gathers data for publicly available data which can be fabricated. The tweeter counts of kills could be same equipment images taken from different angle and moved to other place to take more images. This is information era no more nuclear era. Fabricated information from both russia and ukraine both is making the real conclusion beyond possible.
When the war ends the neutral people like me will be shocked when one of them is winner cause most probably 24 hrs before end of war it would look like both are punching through each other and winning.
When americans and ukrainians and other nato supporters say ukraine is winning or using there own social media platforms to promote that ill never take that seriously.
When putin and his supporters say I still wont believe.
Only neutral perspective are right and apparently the role of neutrals is limited in providing right information because global media is in control of western powers.
If you look at the small things. you can piece together what is the condition of Russian armed force now.
Them buying and using Iranian drones means they cannot provide their own intel and survillence system, either those are depleted or not suitable to use anymore.
Them buying Artillery shell from North Korea means they are running out of apporiate ammunition or had exceed the usage they are limited to.
Them using 1970s era armor vehicle means they are going into their strategic reserve. On the other hand, Ukrainian report on bad condition of capture equipment points to those are inactive reserve.
Not sure how much you understand the Military reserve system. Equipements are separated into different category. You have your deployable, which is ready to deploy with active troop and used with combat, when those are exhausted, you started to dip in the ready to use reserve, there are 2 types of Ready to Use reserve, one is being regular serviced, essentially is the back up for the deployable equipment, another is storage reserved, while still being kept in good condition, it will be housed somewhere where minimal work need to be perform before they can be use due to them being in storage, from small things like you have to change the gearbox oil, engine oil, to large thing like retool the barrel or have the electronic system service. Then there is the final category, long term reserve, those are what we called "Just In Case" equipment, it's too old to keep them regularly but to wasteful to recycle it. A lot of work have to be done to these equipment before you can use it. Because it has been stored outside in depot (In the US, we store inactive reserve article in Sierra Army Depot in California)
Judging from the equipment standard, the stuff the Ukrainian capture are from inactive reserve stock, which mean unless they fancy just bringing these vehicles out for a ride and getting them captured, that mean they had exerted their deployable stock and the ready to use stock (which would have been the 1990s-2000s era T-72) Which mean they had expanded enough article to dip into the inactive reserve stock.
There is a joke for us grunt. If you see them use Sierra Army Depot stuff, you may as well acquisition from private collector, it's the same stuff but better look after....