jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL
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That's still "scenario fulfillment" tho.Oh I havent concluded anything I am more of what if this and what if that. Gives me many angles. Ukraine after offensive has morale boost but russians are not yet loosing.
Most intelligence piece points to 1 direction openly, that's why it was gather in the first place, otherwise it would have no value at all. So if you are looking at that piece of intelligence and think "What if this means something else....", well, one piece probably not that much of a different, but again, as I said, there are 5 pieces of intelligence that points to Russian resource being depleted, and if you started to think "What if..." in all those 5 intelligence pieces. Then you are basically ignoring the basic fact because each intelligence piece has their weight on their validity, and if you come up with 5 pieces, the weight is pretty damn sure. Because you would need to have 5 pieces of intelligence all going the different direction they were collected for. What are the chances of that happening?
On the other hand, in term of military deposition, the chances of Russia turning this around is low. The problem they had is the same problem they had back in February, there are not enough people in operation. That is quite evident that they got routed that fast losing that much land in short amount of time. The thing is, at the earliest of the war, which Russia is at its strongest (That's universally true for any invading army) they are only manage to capture city like Kupiansk and Kherson because those city was betrayed by the Russian collaborator and the Russian took them without a fight. And after a very exhausted fight to get city like Izyum and Sieverodonetsk
Now 6 months down the road, they are no as strong as they were 6 months ago, and there are no more collaborator which mean if they want to reconquer those area, they will now have to fight for it, against a reinforced and motivated defender. The odds are not good for the Russian.
Don't get me wrong, miracle do and did happen in war, I mean a tiny destroyer task force can held of Yamato and its Battleground off Philippine in WW2 (Battle off Samar) The same miracle can happen to the Russian, but as we all say, if you have to depends on miracle to happen, you are more likely already lost the war.