Russia offered Pakistan 30% discount on oil and wheat. PM IK.

[RoadRunner401]

@Waterboy How many billions of dollars of goods and services do the countries you mentioned sell to Pakistan versus what they buy from Pakistan in return?

 

[Waterboy]

@Waterboy How many billions of dollars of goods and services do the countries you mentioned sell to Pakistan versus what they buy from Pakistan in return?

What do they exactly require from us? Bedsheets, jeans? Lol

We don't export anything worthwhile.

We need them more than they need us. They only toy with us because of nuclear weapons that's it. Warna ham bikhari hain

They can easily get textiles from bangladesh, india and Vietnam.

Aukat Dekhi nahi batain dekho logon ki. We as a nation are lazy, dogers and corrupt. We don't produce anything out of the ordinary that world needs. So sit down and count your blessings.

 

[Wood]

Lol we can't refine russian ural. Setting up a new refinery would have warranted investment which i think no one is willing to do.

Secondly we're in the saudi camp. Our people over there send bacj remittances keeping the economy afloat. Changing suppliers isn't that easy.

Our best bet of energy security is through iran.

Massive propaganda going on online and people are taking everything on facevalue. Buying russian oil would've also affected our relationship with the US and EU. Exports would've tanked. Plus russia being pro India, Pakistani awaam is delusional to think we can benefit from russians.

Immi cult followers have lost it, unfortunately the entire online community here and on reddit is infested. Everyone sucking khans tits.

In addition to the cost of refining and strategic alignment with Saudi, the 'deal' is also softened by the transport cost of oil between Russia and South Asia. There is a reason why South Asia imports a miniscule amount of oil from Russia and this will not be easily offset with 30% discount. I think that Russia may eventually resort to chemical weapons in Ukraine resulting in US classifying Russia as a 'state sponsor of terror'. When that happens, secondary sanctions will kick in for real. Investment made into refining Russian oil and establishing supply lines will come in jeopardy.

 

[dbc]

Ah, I see you have read Umar Saif's tweet and just rehashed it without any due diligence.

The guy might be good computer scientist (and an exploitative one at that), but that doesn't mean he is correct on all counts.

Just have a read on the following link.

Refined Petroleum in Pakistan | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

Find the latest exports, imports and tariffs for Refined Petroleum trade in Pakistan.

oec.world

Also,

5 refineries with 417,400 BPD oil installed capacity operating in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD - Currently, five refineries are operating in the country with overall installed capacity of 417,400 barrel per day (BPD) oil and co

nation.com.pk

installed capacity is a pointless metric, the truth is Pakistani refineries are built to produce large amounts of the wrong type of fuel - high sulfur furnace oil. The demand for High sulfur furnace oil has fallen off a cliff largely due to ever tightening emission regulations. In 2017, the then government planned an urgent pivot to Euro 5 diesel and gasoline ...and we are still waiting. Meanwhile, most refineries have ceased or scaled back operations because they have no place to store the high sulfur furnace oil and they can't seem to sell it quickly enough. The truth is Pakistani refineries need billions of dollars of investments to produce the right fuels the nation desperately needs to reduce fuel imports. You may want to look into why something that was planned in 2017 hasn't materialized five years later.

 

[niaz]

Only about 30% of the total petrol consumption of Pakistan is satisfied through in-house refined oil. The rest is imported.

I do believe these figures are outdated though. Byco and a couple of other refineries were in the process of upgrading their refineries to produce less FO, but I am not really in the loop about the progress of that.

The best guy on this forum to expand on this issue would @niaz , any comments sir?

In laymen’s terms, the distillation/fractionating column has 3 main restrictions. Diameter of the column determines how much volume of vapours can be accommodated, in other words its capacity. Height of the column determines degree of fractionation, because greater number of bubble-cap plates better the separation of the fractions.

In order of fractionating to work; all the plates in the column have to be kept wet; this determines the API limits of the crude. If a very heavy crude needs to be used as feed, one would need to adjust the throughput so that all the bottoms (residue which is used to make furnace oil) can be accommodated along with generating sufficient light-ends to keep all the plates wet. If this is not possible, then the refinery wouldn’t be able to run the crude. Similarly, very light feeds such, as the “Condensate” (API 55 or higher) could only be used if the feed rate is reduced to the limit of column’s capacity of the light--ends. The refineries solve this problem by blending the different kinds of crudes to produce the optimum feed for the country’ requirements.

Another limitation of the refinery is the sulphur content. All countries have a sulphur limit on the petroleum products and if the desulphurization capacity of a refinery is not sufficient, crudes with very high sulphur content cannot be used.

Before the sanctions, Russia exported about 5 mm BPD of crude second only to Saudi Arabia which exports about 6.6 mm BPD. Russian most commonly exported crude is the “ Urals”. Like all export crude oil, Urals is a blend of the heavy crude oils produced from the Urals and the Volga regions with the light sweet crude of Western Siberia. It has an API of 32 with 1.2% sulphur, hence not too different in quality to the Saudi Light of 33 API & 1.77% sulphur and Iran Light (32 to 33 API and Sulphur of 1.4%). Pakistani refineries have been using Iran Light and Arab Light thus there should be no problem running the Urals crude. I am not sure if Urals can also be used for making good quality lubricants.

These sanctions have been a boon to India. Understand India is buying Urals at at discount of $25/- per bbl to Brent. In case of Pakistan main problem would be transportation. Crude is normally carried in the VLCC's (230K DWT) . Pakistani ports cannot accommodate large vessels and crude transportation in less than 100 K DWT vessels over long distances is uneconomic.

P.S. Please note that API & sulphur of the crude blends are liable to change slightly over the years due to the exhaustion of old wells and inclusion of crude from new wells.

 

[sohail.ishaque]

Pakistan now has become a sidekick of US. They will condemn Russia and follow every instruction US ask for.

With the current govt, yep.

 

[nahtanbob]

Only a few countries are willing to pay in Ruble. Secondly, what will Russia buy internationally with more Ruble? Russia needs a currency that can be used to buy goods from other countries that it can trade with.

I don't see a long term strategy in this approach of requesting payment in Ruble. Russia is better off with requesting payment in Yuan.

barter trade will work. it is not clear what russia would purchase from pakistan (or that matter india)

 

[Patriot forever]

In laymen’s terms, the distillation/fractionating column has 3 main restrictions. Diameter of the column determines how much volume of vapours can be accommodated, in other words its capacity. Height of the column determines degree of fractionation, because greater number of bubble-cap plates better the separation of the fractions.

In order of fractionating to work; all the plates in the column have to be kept wet; this determines the API limits of the crude. If a very heavy crude needs to be used as feed, one would need to adjust the throughput so that all the bottoms (residue which is used to make furnace oil) can be accommodated along with generating sufficient light-ends to keep all the plates wet. If this is not possible, then the refinery wouldn’t be able to run the crude. Similarly, very light feeds such, as the “Condensate” (API 55 or higher) could only be used if the feed rate is reduced to the limit of column’s capacity of the light--ends. The refineries solve this problem by blending the different kinds of crudes to produce the optimum feed for the country’ requirements.

Another limitation of the refinery is the sulphur content. All countries have a sulphur limit on the petroleum products and if the desulphurization capacity of a refinery is not sufficient, crudes with very high sulphur content cannot be used.

Before the sanctions, Russia exported about 5 mm BPD of crude second only to Saudi Arabia which exports about 6.6 mm BPD. Russian most commonly exported crude is the “ Urals”. Like all export crude oil, Urals is a blend of the heavy crude oils produced from the Urals and the Volga regions with the light sweet crude of Western Siberia. It has an API of 32 with 1.2% sulphur, hence not too different in quality to the Saudi Light of 33 API & 1.77% sulphur and Iran Light (32 to 33 API and Sulphur of 1.4%). Pakistani refineries have been using Iran Light and Arab Light thus there should be no problem running the Urals crude. I am not sure if Urals can also be used for making good quality lubricants.

These sanctions have been a boon to India. Understand India is buying Urals at at discount of $25/- per bbl to Brent. In case of Pakistan main problem would be transportation. Crude is normally carried in the VLCC's (230K DWT) . Pakistani ports cannot accommodate large vessels and crude transportation in less than 100 K DWT vessels over long distances is uneconomic.

P.S. Please note that API & sulphur of the crude blends are liable to change slightly over the years due to the exhaustion of old wells and inclusion of crude from new wells.

The details..

Sir it was an oil swap agreement where Russia would provide its crude blend to a 3rd country and Pakistan would have got their crude blend at 30% discount.

Probably a country which produces crude Pakistan can process with its existing infrastructure.

Do also keep in kind all 3 major refineries in Pakistan are undergoing upgradation and capacity expansion an extraordinary achievement of pti government after decades.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1515951073315467267

Also..

Pakistan also imports massive quantities of refined products and that crude blend could also be refined in a 3rd country at a margin ( refinining cost) and would end up with substantially cheaper petrol.
China is a top contender.

Anyways the details sofar is that it was a 'crude swap agreement' with a regional partner in the middle.

 

[Wood]

barter trade will work. it is not clear what russia would purchase from pakistan (or that matter india)

Russian companies are reportedly trying to source some products from India. There were a few that I read, but only remember ketchup from the list

Iran and India have tried this type is agreement for oil trade in the past. Iran has a significant amount of rupees from this trade in Indian account. They sit and decline in value as INR is structurally set up to decline through planned deficits in the budget

 

[dbc]

Yuan has a chance because there is a real need for Yuan given that China is the largest trade partner for many countries.

Wrong, USD is the reserve currency because it is widely circulated. USD is in circulation because the US has a trade deficit with most countries while China has a trade surplus. The secret sauce of dollar preeminence is consumerism - ta da...

 

[Burger_King]

Important thing to highlight here is that Pakistan can pay for Russian oil using RMB thereby avoiding avoiding the use of USD.

Currently, Chinese loans/grants to Pakistan are primarily in USD. But it does not have to be this way. China can also give RMB to Pakistan which Pakistan can then use to buy Russian oil. Whereas previously, Russia would only sell oil against USD or EUR, now situation is just the opposite. Due to sanctions, USD is of not much use to Russia. Russia therefore will gladly accept RMB.

Dont forget that before going to Russia, IK went to China where he would have discussed his upcoming visit to Russia. In current circumstances, trade with Russia only makes sense if Pakistan can pay for Russian oil in RMB. Its is likely that IK would have had go ahead from China to conduct trade with Russia in RMB. Moreover by paying in RMB, Pakistan can avoid US sanctions because US cannot monitor RMB payments. This is one reason why Americans are so eager to keep control over Pakistani government. Americans want to keep track of Pakistan's relationship with China.

More importantly, Americans dont want countries like Pakistan to conduct trade in RMB because reserve status of USD gets undermined when countries switch from USD to RMB. US sanctions regime becomes null and void if trade switches to RMB. Countries have a huge incentive to trade with Russia because Russia is world's primary commodity supplier and can offer discount to buyers willing to trade with Russia. Pakistan has a huge advantage in ability to trade with Russia because of Pakistan's ability to pay in RMB. But Pakistan being Pakistan would rather have lawyer raj than cheap oil. So more of the same.

 

[Wood]

Wrong, USD is the reserve currency because it is widely circulated. USD is in circulation because the US has a trade deficit with most countries while China has a trade surplus. The secret sauce of dollar preeminence is consumerism - ta da...

While American consumerism plays a role in keeping the reserve status for $, it is not a be all and end all. There is no such thing as a single secret sauce the way I see it.

I think the Chinese currency has an opportunity that other countries do not simply because

i) the consistent trade surplus that China is able to guarantee stability to the currency
ii) the fact that almost anything under the sun can be bought from China means the currency is useful even if only China is willing to accept it
iii) China's growing political alliances with smaller countries persuade them to buy and sell from China is Yuan.

Right now the weakest link in this chain is China's inability to persuade the wealthier developed countries to trust China. This is America's strength. But today China's per capita income is in $10k+ range - imagine how things would be if China's per capita income is $40k? The consumerism that you believe to be America's secret sauce will also apply for China as high wages will move production to outside China (from where China will consume).

Lastly, I always believe in these two postulates:

a) We can never predict future with certainty.
b) Only constant is change itself.

PS: I think this discussion is off topic for the thread

 

[PakFactor]

While American consumerism plays a role in keeping the reserve status for $, it is not a be all and end all. There is no such thing as a single secret sauce the way I see it.

I think the Chinese currency has an opportunity that other countries do not simply because

i) the consistent trade surplus that China is able to guarantee stability to the currency
ii) the fact that almost anything under the sun can be bought from China means the currency is useful even if only China is willing to accept it
iii) China's growing political alliances with smaller countries persuade them to buy and sell from China is Yuan.

Right now the weakest link in this chain is China's inability to persuade the wealthier developed countries to trust China. This is America's strength. But today China's per capita income is in $10k+ range - imagine how things would be if China's per capita income is $40k? The consumerism that you believe to be America's secret sauce will also apply for China as high wages will move production to outside China (from where China will consume).

Lastly, I always believe in these two postulates:

a) We can never predict future with certainty.
b) Only constant is change itself.

PS: I think this discussion is off topic for the thread

Well put.

 

[Mav3rick]

The deal looks very similar to what India got. ( They proved themselves as a strong and sovereign country not infested with Traitors and sellouts).

Coupled with oil refinery investment and gas pipeline deal.

This would have solved nearly all our problems in this sector as well as helped us save a lot of forex.

30% is no joke in energy sector. It was a deal of a lifetime for a country like Pakistan. ( Much much more valuable than GSP + status).

Was it even practical? How would Saudi Arabia & UAE react if we stopped buying Oil from them? Admitted, at a 30% discount we could have saved around 15%-20% of forex spent on Oil imports (rest is transport + refining locally) which would be roughly USD 4.0 Billion. What about Saudi Arabia and UAE which regularly provide financial assistance, provide oil at deferred payments and have historically even written off oil debt by Pakistan?

In addition to the above, Pakistanis in UAE and Saudi Arabia remit around 50% of our USD (expected at USD 15 Billion in the current FY); can we jeopardize this? Can we afford the wrath of GCC and risk the employment of millions of Pakistanis in those countries?

Oil at 30% discount was also offered by Iran many years back, when we started building the IPI pipeline but that too got shelved primarily because of US and particularly because of GCC. Not everything is in the black and white.

 

[JackTheRipper]

then why PTI not imported oil?
Total bulsh*t