Rafale deal: India, France clinch offset deal; France agrees to invest 50% worth in related sectors

[PARIKRAMA]

@Abingdonboy
Bro, chill down... As there are rafale lovers there are FGFA lovers or even LCA lovers who at times follow based on their understanding of present situations and will surely sum up the arguments with the available public information which can anyways be interpreted in multiple ways

at present i wont comment on AMCA as you know my stand hat india is not ready for such a bird as LCA pvt secotr participation itself is not completely matured in nature nor the supply chain is so robust and we have attained the state that we can add a far more high end fighter to our portfolio of manufatured jets in inda especially 5th gen...

As much as we want, GOI will follow its own logic and geo political complusions may play a role too..
For example: for EMALs deal, what i heard is beyond F35 as GOI may like to operate only one 5th gen bought from outside, i am hearing a stronger buzz of F18s which are tested in EMALS to be in the package which reduces the price and gives a bigger option of local production. Thats what Boeing chief also said but he did not quote anything other than if India orders the jets it can be manufactured in India... Also LM said clearly that about yes to producing jets in India but F35 needs an approval process for which India has to become a member... Boeing on the other hand is open to shifting a line and is actually after USN for more ASH orders and showing some new path upgrades.

i know for sure the order of 90 + follow on yet not decided part as my friend in french bank has got the project report where a consortium is being finalised with the words names to be disclosed at a later stage.... and also one more thing Dassault seems to be providing a letter of introduction as well as a mix of financial and non financial guarantees for many suppliers shops in india as part of that strutcure.. Cant disclose more as i dont want too many eyebrows on this.. But rate of production per year is 14. Now i don know if financial closure or approvals are given or not as i believe GOI approval for PSB to participate would be a pre requisite...

My sincere advice is lets wait for the true pic to emerge and all will be cleared over time what is there in reality and whats possible and whats not....

btw just a small word i heard afternoon... Calls had been made to say Thaad system can be provided with modifications to suit india as radar model of Pak is more or less build by USA only(over time investments).. S400 triumf if we buy it has to offer considerable more benefits and cheaper in price/services or you can take it ... another G2G deal will go to USA.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Corridor / hallway rumors from France : min. expected number from this deal's follow-throughs is at 90.

So basically what many of us (@PARIKRAMA @SR-91 ) have been saying for a while now


36+90=126 (minimum).



Thank you for your input @Taygibay, it's always a pleasure to hear from you and get some reliable information.

btw just a small word i heard afternoon... Calls had been made to say Thaad system can be provided with modifications to suit india as radar model of Pak is more or less build by USA only(over time investments).. S400 triumf if we buy it has to offer considerable more benefits and cheaper in price/services or you can take it ... another G2G deal will go to USA.

It's funny, I heard talk about the THAAD offer in Summer but didn't really take it seriously.

@Abingdonboy
Bro, chill down...

Easier said than done sometimes brother

 

[Mamsalaphala]

I know I said I was out but I couldn't let this one pass unnoticed:

Didn't realise we had such an esteemed defence expert on here.....

This is why I no longer want to waste my time discussing these matters with you- you are out of your depth and wrong on almost every count, you don't even have a grasp of the most basic facts and instead of being interested in learning you are being belligerent and argumentative.

Unlike you I do not claim to be an armchair expert, nor do I mix fantasies with reality.

Fact remains that Chinook is a tactical buy, not a strategic one.

Your opinion of me is as much irrelevant as your "expert opinion". Kindly keep them to yourself. The only one you are fooling with such Rhetoric is you.

 

[googly]

Contract By december,.......................Within 3 to 4 years locals should be ready. Govt will make sure this deal doesn't get delays like Scorpene Sub deal.



Nah Bro, they forgot to teach him math in madrassa.

No contract this financial year, if at all government thinks of signing contract.

@Abingdonboy @Gabriel92

This deal is taking up so much time and energy of both sides

That means it is going to be a BIG DEAL ; much more than 36 planes

That is the most important takeaway ; How many Rafales will we get

Thats because India does not want to buy this fighter plane & France is shoving it down out throat.

@Abingdonboy @DrSomnath999
USD 4.5 billion figure doesn't justify just 36 numbers.
What i can understand here is that India wanted France to comply with existing laws and procedures (Offset specifically) and now that these seem to have been sorted out, we have a roadmap in place where orders can start growing.
Eventually we will see LCA program being taken care by HAL and Rafale by a private party.
I think we are going to see Rafale fleet close to 150 (atleast) in about a decade or so.

150 Rafales in a decade. That is 15 Rafale per year. 15*250 million=3.75 billion. IAF capital budget = 5 billion.

 

[Taygibay]

YVW my friend and I am glad that your relentless evangelization work on logic and common sense
as pertaining to the MMRCA / G2G Rafale saga is about to pay off!

Playing with numbers mode on :

Even if 90 was the grand total ( not reaching MMRCA target ), it would still …
be more than the IAF's tally of M2K, which considering the appreciation of that platform by India and
the jump in capacity from it to the Raffy would make this Rafale acquisition an important one?

Then, the retrofit of these M2Ks that was so decried by some Bharatis for its admittedly too salty price
would come to light as not so bad after all. Those 2000s can now carry MICAs and AASMs, remember?
So that they can serve fully integrated auxiliary ancillary functions to your Rafale component's COMAOs.

So 90 Rafales plus 49-51, Oh let's just say 50, I-TI [ By Thales terminology : here ] equals 140 aircrafts
of a modern Hi-Lo mix, with some inter-maintenance cost & time gains at least on basic weapons systems.

For many countries, that's called an Air Force period!

Playing with numbers mode off.

All the best to you and yours, Tay.

 

[Mamsalaphala]

Two precisions to help you guys debate :


Corridor / hallway rumors from France : min. expected number from this deal's follow-throughs is at 90.
Cannot specify sources which is rare for me but another Fr PDF member may be able to do so.

This contradicts what was earlier said,

Dassault has agreed to implement the 50% offsets reqmt AFTER the Govt of India gives a written, irreversible commitment to order more Rafales (up to 189 in all). But this 50% offsets commitment on Dassault's part will be implemented ONLY after follow-on orders for Rafale are placed in successive tranches.

So in short, EVEN IF the deal is ONLY for 90 more, it will mean no 50% offset.

See the Contradiction ?

Only one of the two can be True.

 

[googly]

Good point- it wouldn't take this long to sort out a govt-govt off the shelf purchase for such a small number of jets which means the following:

1) a lot more than 36 Rafales are going to be included in the deal AND the majority of them will be built in India (ask anyone in this industry and they will tell you Dassualt has already been scrambling for Indian partners to do so but this will all too often misreported as "offset" obligations).

2) The IAF is going to get the exact Rafale they wanted with all their specified kit included.


The ACM himself said, about a week ago, they need an additional 6 SQNs of Rafales or a/c like it and no airforce of this calibre are going to induct 2 different fighters for the same exact role especially not when one type only has 36 units in service. Anyone who thinks this is going to be the final number of Rafales in IAF service are being intentionally asinine. 36 jets isn't even enough for 2 SQNs with war reserves (and the IAF always has fighter war reserves).


Dassualt have already said they will ramp-up production if they get an order from India so the IAF is likely to get their first jets much earlier than 36 months especially as the Egyptian Air Force is already taking delivery of theirs (meaning there isn't such a huge backlog).


The Su-35 drama was all 100% BS, the IAF has never shown even a modicum of interest in it. The F-18 talk was all fuelled by the ignorant (or paid off) media- they prompted the Boeing executive to make those remarks about F-18s built in India but what he really was serious about was Chinooks and Apaches being built in India. He simply couldn't rule his company out from any future deals with the IAF for F-18s because that would be beyond stupid on his part.


The media is making a massive fuss about the "MMRCA 2.0" and Gripen, EFT, F-18, F-16 and MiG-35 all being back in the running for 90+ jets? But isn't it funny how there has been no such RFI? No manufacturer will actually state " we are re-submitting our bid for the IAF"? The fact is that follow on 90 jets talk is about this number of Rafales being built in India. The DM, ACM and Dassualt CEO have all alluded to this. Why you would take the word of the Indian media over these guys is beyond me....


See, this is the media being intentionally dishonest. The DM instructed the CNC to initiate contract finalisation talks in the September DAC meeting based on Dassault and the MoD/CNC coming to agreeable terms on the price and offset issues. The media is not only behind the curve but they are intentionally (it seems) propagating misinformation.

Again, look at the irrefutable FACTS, do not base your beliefs on the Indian media's "analysis".

You are selectively quoting media to prove your point of view. Defence Minister has firmly said no more Rafales beyond 36.

 

[Mamsalaphala]

Even if @Taygibay rumours are taken to be gospel truth, then it only means France is expecting 90 more follow through orders but will say No to offset.

Without offset the deal will NOT move forward.

Which means france has to agree to 50% offset with 90 Rafale. That is assuming GoI will give future orders.

For the moment the whole thing looks grey.

DM visit to Russia and the deal they offer will decide the fate.

 

[googly]

No, cause all 36 will come from France.

The rest, total number unsure, will be made in India. Total jets could be as little as 80 to as high as 180.

Parrikar categorically said only 36 Rafales. No more.

 

[Taygibay]

See the Contradiction ?

I don't but not for the reason you may think.

Your logic in that post is correct. Mine however only computes things I have verified to a certain degree.
The 90 min. figure is one I trust and the other is not. Thus there is no discrepancy in my reasoning?
Not my circus not my monkee? Linking a poster to someone else's quote or citation will do that for you.

153 more Rafales* in a written irreversible commitment is not only a ludicrous estimate by even Dassault's
account as we speak, it is phrased in a way that no official involved would ever use. I don't need to know
nor blame the author to understand that phrase as an opinion, hope or enthusiastic exaggeration.
The rest of that quote is as imprecise as well.
Nothing wrong with that either, as long as it wasn't given as gospel/sacred truth in a respectable publication.

The real numbers will be known in 2 decades, mate!
History always triumph over journalism in the end.

The gets of that quote is as imprecise as well.

Have a good day, Tay.

* 153 more Rafales That 189 minus original 36 deal.

 

[SR-91]

Parrikar categorically said only 36 Rafales. No more.

Have you not been paying attention???
I suggest you Read recent news on PDF.

 

[anant_s]

36+90=126 (minimum).

Well thats exactly the point along with the argument (you made earlier) that overnight LCA cannot take place of MMRCA winner. If that were true, MMRCA would never have taken place and India could've simply opted for some stop gap arrangements (MiG 29 or MiG 35 comes to my mind).
Besides LCA is an entirely different class of machine not even comparable to Rafale, its absurd (atleast as of this moment with capabilities of LCA) to think LCA can replace Rafale.
On Question of DM's statement of getting 36, i don't think any minister would officially comment on how many fighters we are getting before a deal is signed.
36 Fighters are coming in a G2G deal, let us wait and see.
From what i can make out from your and @Taygibay posts is that there certainly are a lot of undercurrents and hard bargaining going on. We should get a clearer and hopefully positive picture by end of this fiscal year surely.

 

[Mamsalaphala]

I don't but not for the reason you may think.

Your logic in that post is correct. Mine however only computes things I have verified to a certain degree.
The 90 min. figure is one I trust and the other is not. Thus there is no discrepancy in my reasoning?
Not my circus not my monkee? Linking a poster to someone else's quote or citation will do that for you.

153 more Rafales* in a written irreversible commitment is not only a ludicrous estimate by even Dassault's
account as we speak, it is phrased in a way that no official involved would ever use. I don't need to know
nor blame the author to understand that phrase as an opinion, hope or enthusiastic exaggeration.
The rest of that quote is as imprecise as well.
Nothing wrong with that either, as long as it wasn't given as gospel/sacred truth in a respectable publication.

The real numbers will be known in 2 decades, mate!
History always triumph over journalism in the end.

The gets of that quote is as imprecise as well.

Have a good day, Tay.

* 153 more Rafales That 189 minus original 36 deal.

So a poster in a pakistani forum is more reliable than a journalist ?

I treat your post with the same respect as the other. No one is greater or lesser.

Unless it come in reliable print media.

For the moment it seems like the gravy train has taken a detour to Russia. It may very well end up in France, but for the moment it is heading there.



Tough call for Manohar Parrikar on FGFA project | The Financial Express

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar will have a tough call to make when he sits down to review the much-delayed fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) programme with his Russian counterpart during his visit to Moscow in November.

Speaking to FE, a senior MoD official, on condition of anonymity, said: “Given the current situation, where the Indian Air Force (IAF) is in deep trouble due to its fast depleting force structure, the Indian government will need to take well thought out decision with long-term and strategic foresight. There is no doubt that the PAK-FA (Sukhoi Design Proposal) will be emerge as a major FGFA in the world. Hence, it would be better for India to take a reality check on the FGFA and recalibrate its position.” Parrikar, who will be going for the the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation meeting ahead of the annual Indo-Russia summit, will review the FGFA project as well as the Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) and other defence projects, MoD officials said.

According to air marshal (retd) M Matheswaran, “The origins of FGFA proposals go back to 2002, when it was suggested by the Russians for an inter-governmental programme. Given the urgency of its requirement for the badly-depleted Russian Air Force and the need for financial investment to cover the huge cost of the programme, Russia hoped to address it through India as its partner. Besides, a huge order from the IAF would retain continuity in India-Russia military aircraft production relationship and help the Russian aircraft industry.” Matheswaran, who is also doctoral faculty of Naval War College, Goa, said: “In the meantime, many things have happened. The IAF has downsized its requirement to just 64 aircraft as off-the shelf buy. Discussions on costs and role in non-existent design and development have resulted in a messy situation. The defence minister will have a tough call to make.”

Sources said the agreement that could be inked at the annual summit will also include a fixed order of 154 jets, work share and a firm commitment to the number of single versus double seat FGFA. With the Western sanctions impacting the Russian economy, President Vladmir Putin is keen that the FGFA programme with India fructifies as the joint programme will reduce development cost and guarantee an export customer. And for India, it would help it strengthen IAF’s dwindling squadrons.

Well thats exactly the point along with the argument (you made earlier) that overnight LCA cannot take place of MMRCA winner. If that were true, MMRCA would never have taken place and India could've simply opted for some stop gap arrangements (MiG 29 or MiG 35 comes to my mind).
Besides LCA is an entirely different class of machine not even comparable to Rafale, its absurd (atleast as of this moment with capabilities of LCA) to think LCA can replace Rafale.
On Question of DM's statement of getting 36, i don't think any minister would officially comment on how many fighters we are getting before a deal is signed.
36 Fighters are coming in a G2G deal, let us wait and see.
From what i can make out from your and @Taygibay posts is that there certainly are a lot of undercurrents and hard bargaining going on. We should get a clearer and hopefully positive picture by end of this fiscal year surely.

LCA as a replacement for Rafale is a Strawman.

PAKFA as a replacement for Rafale is not.

 

[googly]

Have you not been paying attention???
I suggest you Read recent news on PDF.

All these news are bullshit when Parrikar himself says that India will buy only 36 Rafales. Personally bored of all these source based news.

 

[sathya]

by the time India get's all it's 36 Rafales the F-35 will cost less than $80 million per

Lockheed eyes 2-4 percent cost reduction in next F-35 contract | Reuters

it's still in LRIP just waiting for FRP and the cost reductions


U.S bought 43 F-35s for $4 billion so I wouldn't be surprised if India could of bought 80 to 90 for $9 billion, but no ToT or offset clause

With all training, maintainence , preparation of base.. Etc etc .. Price will increase for us.
We are wary of strings and sanctions alone.., not tot or offset for a cutting edge technology ..