Let us try to disect/deconstruct.. in detached, dispassionate manner...
freezing all our biases..
Statecraft.
PakStatecraft is finding its feet after a long coma... so the wobbles are to be expected.
Now...the matter at hand as you correctly framed it... let us
Contextualise this!
Deconstructing OIC:
ArabLeague's Oil Embargo made long lines for gasoline in the CombinedWest led by the US...with clear economic consequences... King Faisal got assasinated... the rest is History.
Hence, it was imparative for the US led CombinedWest to NEVER allow any actions by the Core Oil Producers to EVER use Oil as Weapon...
The
OIC was/is a
US PolicyInstruement to allow the so-called IslamicWorld to vent its Frustrations and be resinged to its Impotence.
As brought to attention of Paks before...once again... the US was the Force behind hiring and positioning the good Indians in the GCC... thus keeping the
ImpericalGeoConstruct aka India afloat..
This was the same
PolicyInstruement which has been allotting generous Visas to the good Indians in the US...
When the
KosherAfghanJihad ended ... we all know what happened after that.
The
OIC becoming more of
free-lunch-shop than a talk-shop was a natural development.
The ones who gives Free-Lunch also demands something in return.
Therefore, we cann't allow ourselves being surprised or disappointed by the OIC... it would only result in disappoinment and more...
Since, the foundation of any expectation from OIC would be based on pure
Emotion than
the Ground-Reality!
The Net Comprehensive Strength of OIC is such that it will never be allowed to function as UnifiedPlatform... because that would upset the Overal Global Power Architecture and the Long Term Plans.
Great/SuperPowers ONLY work for their own interests and their own interests alone... rest is just
CannonFodder or PolicyInstruements.
The US has been trying to get the good Indians into all types of Fora to enhance its position for sometime now... from NSG to OIC!
When last time the OIC invited Indian FM Pakistan took a firm stand... simply, because we had NO other Choice left...
Indian incorporation into OIC will solve many strategic headaches for not only India but also for the US.
With growing
Sino-US ColdWar 3.0 dynamics .. the US needs to prop up India not only militarily but also diplomatically and economically.
Therefore, we do see a
DirectedEffort to invest in India by the GCC... the force behind it is not only possible RoI for the GCC Investments but
larger US Strategic Calculus.
India dumping Iran and joining the GCC on strategic level is also a US Construct...
Please, do see that
PetroDollar Recycling and
FinancialCapitalism are mutually dependent... incorporation of India into the exisiting Financial Architecture is of Vital Importance to the US.
Please, do note that it was the US and India who votted against
SDR while the
Sino-Rus Axis were pushing for SDR dominance.
Seeing OIC anything other than a
PetroDollar Component/PolicyInstruement will cause
Strategic Blindness.
As long as OIC Core stays committed to the Agreed DollarSystem... red carpets.. otherwise... well we do know already!
Now this
Sino-Iranian Deal is not new ..this has been in the offing long before Pres. Xi visited Tehran and expressed it.
Pakistan is a labour exporter to the OIC Core and due to
Our Own Economic Mismanagement and extremely poor Statecraft of past two decades... well... Begger's Bowl...
Free-Lunches come at a price.
EconomicTerrorism in Pakistan, MoneyLaundering and then the Investments by the EconomicTerrorists ... made our situation worse!
Can we Blame others?
Regardless, OIC is what it is. And That is That!
We can jump high and low... based on Expectations or Common ReligeousEthos won't make a dent to the PolicyInstruement that OIC is... and
in its current form the OIC shall continue to serve this purpose.
This is the very
SimpleReason that there is NO meeting by the OIC for the plight of
PakKashmiris in IoJK or Collective Condemnation of the
IndianFacistRegime.
Sooner we accept these FACTS the better!
OIC is a US Construct and shall remain so.
The growing
Disconnect between
Turkiye and
GCC and
IranianDynamics... is essentially making OIC making more deader than dead for any Collective Action. It shall only grow further...with Tukiye n Egypt squaring off!
Another OIC in the Making:
The Sino-American Last Tango is accelerating faster than expected...at least by the
BemusedObserver.
This
Acceleration has deep implications for the so-called IslamicWorld ...including the Core of OIC!
ASEAN including China is the
EconomicGrowthEngine for the GlobalEconomy.
And if we add
EmergingMarkets of
Pakistan and
Turkiye then the depth and dimensions of the GrowthPotential changes.
ASEAN is so deeply integerated with the ChineseEconomy that pricing it away is now not possible for the US led Quad.
EU desperately needs this
GrowthEngine to come out of Deep Deflation.
Now this
KL Conference was a
Chinese attempt to Construct another OIC Core for its own GeoStrategic Goals... the Sino-IranianDeal needs to be seen through broader lens than just narrow ones.
SCO has already incorporated the CentralAsian 'Muslim' countries into the
Sino-Russian Framework and they shall remain there. Further incorparation of Iran and Tukiye and later on ASEAN will grow.
With Sino-Russian trade increasingly settled in their national
valuta is indictive of this
Acceleration...which at this stage is nuanced and calculated..
NOT Reactive.
Eurasia combined with ASEAN is both the Consumer and Producer of Oil/Gas/Uranium.
IF the Sino-Rus Axis succeeds in turning this into
Consolidated EconomicShpere with
Yuan/DigitalYuan as Trading Vechile then the effects will be not mere Historic but Paradigm Shattering.
Smack in the Middle is Pakistan... Young in population and blessed with
PivotalPosition in the Eurasian Landmass...
The recent
PakState PolicyPositions made public by the esteem and colourful
SMQ or the repayment of loans earlier than required with the
Help of China ... this tells us the direction of the Flow!
Russia's increasing muslim population or expanding
StrategicFootprint in
ME and
NorthAfrica or the recent OilWar between KSA and Russia..
Or Russo-Turk rivalary in NorthAfrica/Syria... the Game for Oil/Gas resources and then
2023 is now almost here...
The Chinese investments in 'Islamic' countries and the need for
BRI to go into a higher gear along with DigitalBRI ...
When we actually look at the
EurasianMap then we can see with
Clarity that a
New OIC with a
New Core is extremely valued by both Russia and China as it neatly binds the SCO, EurasianEconomicBlock and Decoupling with $.
Mr. Putin's defence of Islam of on regular basis is, once again, indictive of the an emerging and supported New Core of the New OIC.
Now that the
IndianState has officially joined the
AntiChina Quad and
Galwan is active... India will be forced further to embrace the US... and in return the US PolicyInstruement old OIC will continue to
shield India from
MuslimAnguish for its
CrimesAgainstHumanity in
IoJK or increasing brutalities against the
Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan.
BD and SL already embeded with
BRI and BD showing signs of taking a positive view of Sino-Pak Axis!
Thus BD, with its large muslims population,
shall be courted further to join the New OIC.
The above
Deconstruction might appear
ColdHearted but then the world we have been living in has been nothing else!
PakStatecraft's Choices and Consquences:
Pakistan has been Tounge Living Among Teeth for past 73yrs... with mixed bag of results... We can lament or wail all we want, it is what it is... and
we have to Deal with it!
Pakistan's Choices:
- IMF
- FATF
- DebtServicing
- IPPs
- KhooniVirus
- Rent-a-KhooniLiberal
- Rent-a-MullhaMaffia
- MarasiMedia
- EconomicTerrorist still at large
- Colonial System of Governance
- FBR a liability
- Permanent Headache of Kabulistan
- IndianTerrorism in Pakistan
- Political-Instability
- Economic Recession and Inflation
The above is the Shardes which are piercing us and walk we must on these nails...
All of this is the
ConfiningLandscape in which
Pakistan is to make
StrategicChoices:
- Pakistan has made the StrategicChoice of BRI i.e CPEC
- Pakistan has made ForeignPolicy choice of aligning with PRC and dovetail PakEconomicDiplomacy including focus on Africa
- RetaliationDoctorine towards Kabulistan and India
- NoMoreWars for someone else
- Re-engaging BD and SL
- More focus on ASEAN for trade and investments in Pakistan's SEZs
- High profile and consisten exposing of HindutvaFacism
- Taking a coordinating approach towards IoJK resultion with China
- SMQ giving last chance to Old OIC to act Now or Loose Pakistan Forever
- PakMilitaryDiplomacy to try to act as a bridge between Iran and KSA
- Facilitating AmericanExit from Kabulistan
- Accepting that Regional Powers i.e Russia, China and Iran are stakeholders in AfghanPeace
- Treating GCC and Turkiye as equal partners
- Ruling out any engagement with India which is for show and not concrete results
- Keeping the Voice of PakKashmiris alive...regardless, whether its enough or not
- Using Yuan as payment vehicle with the Chinese firms
- Standing with China on HK, Ladakh and SouthChinaSea
- Engaging Russia in the context of Eurasia and not through Indian angle
- Building Dams with the Chinese Investments
- Offering CPEC infrastructure to all CARs
- Accelerating oil/gas exploration within Pakistan
- Slowly moving into CPEC Phase2
Consequences for Pakistan:
- FATF sword will hang for a while
- IMF will do IMF on Pakistan
- EconomicTerrorists will continue to invest in unstability within Pakistan
- IndianTerrorism will become more focused on CPEC/China-in-Pakistan
- GCC will extert all the pressure possible for Pakistan to comply with their strategic objectives
- Pakistanis might be deported from GCC (this will be the extreme measure but cann't be ruled out)
- Pakistan's Ultimatum to OIC will not result in anything Condusive to Eleviate Plight of PakKashmiris in IoJK
- Pakistan can see the Oil Facility withdrawn if Pakistan continues with Policy outlined by SMQ
- The GCC $$ in SBP could be withdrawn
- The possible Investments in Pakistan from GCC could be withdrawn
- Should Pakistan invite OIC FMs on its own... only a few will turn up
- When Pakistan Officially becomes the Core of the New OIC the relationships with GCC will take a deep hit
- The US will keep Pakistan under pressure through all of its PolicyInstruements to give India a breathing space as Frontline state against China
- To keep a Balanced and Equal level relationship with Iran and GCC or Turkiye and GCC will be a Monumental Task for PakDiplomacy
- Price of Not abandoning CPEC or Sino-Pak Axis will have trade and diplomatic consequences from the US led CombinedWest in the short term
In short to become Pakistan, Pakistan shall have to pay dear price... accute pain in the short term.. more Independence in the Long Term!
All of this depends if Pakistan can put its house in Order... from Economy to Judiciary to Governance to Education to Rapid Industrialisation...
Every Choice exacts an Equal Price!
It is
The Momentum of History in Acceleration ...
ThirdActorDynamics in Greater ME from Med to Gulf to SouthChinaSea ... nothing exists on its own in Geopolitics!
Mangus
