Mangus Ortus Novem
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2008
- Messages
- 2,984
- Reaction score
- 186
- Country
- Location
We have now some Contours of a Composite regarding The EndGame of IndianState. A good start!
It is imperative that we don't discuss or bring in the good Indians i.e. their unique culture, ethos or psyche...
Simply, that is distractive and opens up the pathways for derailment... and then the obvious consequence... Paks get distracted from the SubjectMatter and focus on non-essential.
However, it is also equally important now that we try to see things from the Perspective of IndianState!
Keeping in mind the General Composite of its EndGame...
Why does IndianState do what it does?
Quite frankly, it takes enormus effort and money to keep the Region entangled in Hybridwar onslaught... in some cases as in SouthAsia ... from buying politicos and buabucracy in these countreis to developing assets within their armed forces and keeping their plams greased.... to Kabulistan ...
Operation Swift Retort (IRP) and Operation Ladakh Freedom (PRC) have demonstrated that there is deep disconnect between actual IndianState capabilities in OvertAction and its proclaimations.
This is in itself is something to worry about and not rejoice...
Since, it puts enormus pressure on the IndianState to recapture its lost image and well crafted/promoted persona of GreatRegional/Global Power.
A 'GreatPower' that cann't even shape its neighbourhood to its advantage cann't influnces its second layer of periphery.
Therefore, the immense Pressure on IndianState to re-establish some semblace of being a Regional Hegemon, beyond its media's conditioning/reassuring of its captive internal audience, needs to be understood dispassionately and only then a counter-strategy can be formed to contain it.
Within a span of 1.3yrs the Credibility of IndianState as EmergingGreatPower or Regional Hegemon has taken serious hit.
This should be a matter of concern to PakState!
For now it is immaterial for the Scope of our discussion .. the actuality of the claim to be a SuperPower... discussing it will devolve into standard reactions. Immaterial.
The developing Composite cann't be complete without bringing the IoJK, a trilateral dispute among three NuclearArmedNations.
IoJK could have been solved in such a way that none of the Three would have to loose face and move forward to integerated Regional Development... but Why it is NOT resloved?
What is the Compulsion of IndianState to keep PakKashmiris in such horrible state and for decades, ever increasing brutality, WarCrimes, CrimesAgainstHumantiy...?
It must be noted that to keep IoJK i.e. PakKashmiris Oppression under wraps has costed IndianState alot of MONEY.
All those various weapon systems bought from West and especially the Veto holders ... comes at a cost of $Blns!!!
Deployment of almost a million armed troops in IoJK to Suppress PakKashmiris costs billions annually to IndianState with no end in sight!
An RationalActor would have sought to devise a Win-Win-Win Outcome..and by doing so be liberated from the Chains of Confinement only to dusty plains .... being bogged down and never be able to focus on Second Layer Periphery of IndianState.
Genocide of Muslims of MaqboozaJammu to the ongoing Genocide and EthinicCleansing of PakKashmiris in IoJK ... what does it tell us? From IndianState perspective that is!
And now the PRC has become part of SouthAsia for all practical purposes.
Of course, this is historic in nature and even further shrinks IndianState's remaining influence within SouthAsianSphere ... which the IndianState has always treated as its backyard...
This, obviously, compels IndianState to join Quad or any Anti-ChinaCamp... if we try to see it from IndianState perspective with studied detachment.
We need to understand ExistentialAngst of IndianState as it 'surrounded' by Two NucluearArmed Allies ... and its increasing dependence on the US led AntiChinaParty.
It joining of Anti-China Camp requires a bigger ton of felsh than the pound of flesh that IndianState gave for its Anti-Pak efforts.
And now Iran has realised that IndianState is far more restrictive in its freedom of policy-formation and action... hence, the obvious Conclusion by the asstute Persians to make TheDeal with The Dragon.
This is the Price that IndianState has paid ...economic, gestrategic and Qoutient-of-Future-Influence!
Both Swift Retort and Ladakh Freedom were/are StateCredibility Operations!
IndianState made the first moves in both cases ...thus forcing Pak and now China to Establish their State-Credibility.
In both cases IndianState backed-off and resorted to IndianState controlled Media to churn-out narratives that sooth the Highly Conditioned Nationalistic IndianPublic.
In a nutshell The Indian Comprehensive National Strength has been exposed, leading to hurried alliance with the US led AngloWorld.
Will these IndianStatePolicies enhance its prestige?
Will these policies alleviate the ExistentialAngst?
From voting against Iran to voting against SDR IndianState has now fully dowtailed its polices to the US Architecture... why not!
But the price is also steep... IndianState cann't be seen now fully Independent in its regional or para-regional actions/policies.
Mr. Modi can make great speeches after Swift Retort or now one speech in Leh... but the IndianState's Credibility on the Ground is NOT restored...
The Longer the 'Stand-off' last the more the loss of Credibility for IndianState... becuase those smaller state in SouthAsia don't have to be scared of India...since, PRC is now the fully active Neighbour!
Instead of much dreaded String-of-Pearls it is now Boulders of GreatWall surrounding IndianState... it will certainly add to Deepening of ExistentialAngst for the IndianState.
Once again to better understand the Thinking/Compulsion/Action of the IndianState we need to see things from IndainPerspective as STATE.
There are two Fundamental Options for the IndianState to regain Credibility:
Attacking Pakistan could be an option but outcome is uncertain ... if IndianState fails to change the facts on the ground... it will be even more loss of its receeding Credibility as Regional Power.
Terrorism peaking in Pakistan or activating the RAW assets in Karachi/Sindh... are more signs of desperation than conduct of a Credible Great Power.
What other Counter-Intuitive Strategies can IndianState adopt/implement to regain its lost Credibility?
After we can Consolidate the Composite of IndianState only then we can being to formulate Pak's Response.
We can try, for once, to be systematic in this effort!
Pakistan must do everything to avoid sucked into IndianState's Desperation... and in case of IndianArmedAttack ... Pakistan must retaliate with Clarity and not paralysis.
The Pak Counter Strike should be of such lethalitiy that it could give the besieged IndianState a deep pause before even thinking about climbing the next step on the EscalationLadder.
Credibility is very difficult to gain and easy to loose... and to regain it is walk through Hell!
Mangus
PS. Hopefully, we Paks can discuss this in peace and among ourselves. But then, it is what it is!
@peagle @Ace of Spades @masterchief_mirza @N.Siddiqui @HRK
It is imperative that we don't discuss or bring in the good Indians i.e. their unique culture, ethos or psyche...
Simply, that is distractive and opens up the pathways for derailment... and then the obvious consequence... Paks get distracted from the SubjectMatter and focus on non-essential.
However, it is also equally important now that we try to see things from the Perspective of IndianState!
Keeping in mind the General Composite of its EndGame...
Why does IndianState do what it does?
Quite frankly, it takes enormus effort and money to keep the Region entangled in Hybridwar onslaught... in some cases as in SouthAsia ... from buying politicos and buabucracy in these countreis to developing assets within their armed forces and keeping their plams greased.... to Kabulistan ...
Operation Swift Retort (IRP) and Operation Ladakh Freedom (PRC) have demonstrated that there is deep disconnect between actual IndianState capabilities in OvertAction and its proclaimations.
This is in itself is something to worry about and not rejoice...
Since, it puts enormus pressure on the IndianState to recapture its lost image and well crafted/promoted persona of GreatRegional/Global Power.
A 'GreatPower' that cann't even shape its neighbourhood to its advantage cann't influnces its second layer of periphery.
Therefore, the immense Pressure on IndianState to re-establish some semblace of being a Regional Hegemon, beyond its media's conditioning/reassuring of its captive internal audience, needs to be understood dispassionately and only then a counter-strategy can be formed to contain it.
Within a span of 1.3yrs the Credibility of IndianState as EmergingGreatPower or Regional Hegemon has taken serious hit.
This should be a matter of concern to PakState!
For now it is immaterial for the Scope of our discussion .. the actuality of the claim to be a SuperPower... discussing it will devolve into standard reactions. Immaterial.
The developing Composite cann't be complete without bringing the IoJK, a trilateral dispute among three NuclearArmedNations.
IoJK could have been solved in such a way that none of the Three would have to loose face and move forward to integerated Regional Development... but Why it is NOT resloved?
What is the Compulsion of IndianState to keep PakKashmiris in such horrible state and for decades, ever increasing brutality, WarCrimes, CrimesAgainstHumantiy...?
It must be noted that to keep IoJK i.e. PakKashmiris Oppression under wraps has costed IndianState alot of MONEY.
All those various weapon systems bought from West and especially the Veto holders ... comes at a cost of $Blns!!!
Deployment of almost a million armed troops in IoJK to Suppress PakKashmiris costs billions annually to IndianState with no end in sight!
An RationalActor would have sought to devise a Win-Win-Win Outcome..and by doing so be liberated from the Chains of Confinement only to dusty plains .... being bogged down and never be able to focus on Second Layer Periphery of IndianState.
Genocide of Muslims of MaqboozaJammu to the ongoing Genocide and EthinicCleansing of PakKashmiris in IoJK ... what does it tell us? From IndianState perspective that is!
And now the PRC has become part of SouthAsia for all practical purposes.
Of course, this is historic in nature and even further shrinks IndianState's remaining influence within SouthAsianSphere ... which the IndianState has always treated as its backyard...
This, obviously, compels IndianState to join Quad or any Anti-ChinaCamp... if we try to see it from IndianState perspective with studied detachment.
We need to understand ExistentialAngst of IndianState as it 'surrounded' by Two NucluearArmed Allies ... and its increasing dependence on the US led AntiChinaParty.
It joining of Anti-China Camp requires a bigger ton of felsh than the pound of flesh that IndianState gave for its Anti-Pak efforts.
And now Iran has realised that IndianState is far more restrictive in its freedom of policy-formation and action... hence, the obvious Conclusion by the asstute Persians to make TheDeal with The Dragon.
This is the Price that IndianState has paid ...economic, gestrategic and Qoutient-of-Future-Influence!
Both Swift Retort and Ladakh Freedom were/are StateCredibility Operations!
IndianState made the first moves in both cases ...thus forcing Pak and now China to Establish their State-Credibility.
In both cases IndianState backed-off and resorted to IndianState controlled Media to churn-out narratives that sooth the Highly Conditioned Nationalistic IndianPublic.
In a nutshell The Indian Comprehensive National Strength has been exposed, leading to hurried alliance with the US led AngloWorld.
Will these IndianStatePolicies enhance its prestige?
Will these policies alleviate the ExistentialAngst?
From voting against Iran to voting against SDR IndianState has now fully dowtailed its polices to the US Architecture... why not!
But the price is also steep... IndianState cann't be seen now fully Independent in its regional or para-regional actions/policies.
Mr. Modi can make great speeches after Swift Retort or now one speech in Leh... but the IndianState's Credibility on the Ground is NOT restored...
The Longer the 'Stand-off' last the more the loss of Credibility for IndianState... becuase those smaller state in SouthAsia don't have to be scared of India...since, PRC is now the fully active Neighbour!
Instead of much dreaded String-of-Pearls it is now Boulders of GreatWall surrounding IndianState... it will certainly add to Deepening of ExistentialAngst for the IndianState.
Once again to better understand the Thinking/Compulsion/Action of the IndianState we need to see things from IndainPerspective as STATE.
There are two Fundamental Options for the IndianState to regain Credibility:
- Militarily engage the PLA and push it back, thus establishing a far greater Credibility in the Region and Beyond
- Go much more deeper in the Rabbit Hole of the Quad and fully align policies with the US...i.e. play the long game and if the US wins then IndianState can reap massive rewards.
Attacking Pakistan could be an option but outcome is uncertain ... if IndianState fails to change the facts on the ground... it will be even more loss of its receeding Credibility as Regional Power.
Terrorism peaking in Pakistan or activating the RAW assets in Karachi/Sindh... are more signs of desperation than conduct of a Credible Great Power.
What other Counter-Intuitive Strategies can IndianState adopt/implement to regain its lost Credibility?
After we can Consolidate the Composite of IndianState only then we can being to formulate Pak's Response.
We can try, for once, to be systematic in this effort!
Pakistan must do everything to avoid sucked into IndianState's Desperation... and in case of IndianArmedAttack ... Pakistan must retaliate with Clarity and not paralysis.
The Pak Counter Strike should be of such lethalitiy that it could give the besieged IndianState a deep pause before even thinking about climbing the next step on the EscalationLadder.
Credibility is very difficult to gain and easy to loose... and to regain it is walk through Hell!
Mangus
PS. Hopefully, we Paks can discuss this in peace and among ourselves. But then, it is what it is!
@peagle @Ace of Spades @masterchief_mirza @N.Siddiqui @HRK
