A lot has already been said in favor of a brilliant and well balanced address of Prime Minister Imran Khan at UNGA. Even many of his critics thoroughly enjoyed and praised PMIK's speech and have been seen saying "proud of being a Pakistani today" after quite a long time. His speech was heard across the globe and at one point, #ImranKhanVoiceOfKashmir became a top trend on twitter. Approximately a million tweets have been posted since, which means that his address (positively or negatively... doesn't matter) is being discussed all over the world on social media.
The four concerns raised in PMIK's speech were placed in an extremely intelligent way. People might say that he wasn't reading from his notes, but honestly speaking, it wasn't a speech without a thorough preparation. The words he used, the sentences he spoke, the emotions he showed and the warnings he delivered were so nicely connected, and the concerns were so logically lined up, that it seemed Pakistani mission contracted a psychologist in addition to many other experts to assist in formulating this masterpiece delivered by PMIK today.
He started with environmental concerns, which attracted many people who might not know about the sub-continent let alone Kashmir, proving himself as a concerned citizen of the planet Earth. After attracting environmentalists (and everyone now considers himself as one) and those who are badly affected by global warming, he tried to attract all the countries that face poverty due to corruption supported by the richer economies by creating tax heavens. This speech is a reminder to those countries which only blame the third world countries of plunder-friendly laws, but conveniently close their eyes on their actions to provide security to the wealth of looters and money launderers. His address will also impact the next session of FATF as PMIK has tried to capture moral high ground here. It was then a turn to attract Muslims. The way he presented Islam I can see that every Muslim who has listened to his speech will do some soul searching. Has anyone from the Muslim Ummah raised these points at a liberal forum with such a confidence before him? In his 5 minutes, he completely separated radicals (belonging to any religion) from the mainstream. It was one of the best, if not the best defense of Islam in current turbulent times.
Once he gathered the attention of the above, he started his onslaught against India on Kashmir. I am sure 90% of the concerned Indian population might have changed the tv channels and gone back to bollywood songs during his address.
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OK, enough said about the address. 2019 has been an eventful year for all three parties i.e. Pakistan, India and Kashmiris. So far, Pakistan has responded effectively to the limited strikes, 5th generation war on media, and on the diplomatic fronts. For Indians, it was a good year indeed as they annexed Kashmir quite easily by striking or amending a couple of articles in their constitution. Realistically speaking, world will keep its eyes closed due to a over-a-billion-people's-market even after PMIK's desperate efforts to wake up the conscience of the world's leaders. In these desperate times, money can easily be preferred over justice, no doubt about it. We have been haplessly and helplessly watching the land being snatched from Palestinians and no one could do anything to stop Israelis.
Pakistan has played almost all the diplomatic cards as of today. By not escalating the situation in February this year and returning the Indian pilot, by engaging ourselves in the Afghan peace process, by offering our help in Middle East's crisis, by raining environmental concerns and by using different platforms to convey Kashmiri plight, we have shown the world that we are a peaceful nation which believes in coexistence. But is this enough? What if world again goes to sleep and we end up as a lone voice on Kashmir? Will India take any measures to help Kashmiris? What if India lifts curfew but Kashmiris are not able to put up a strong Taliban like resistance on their own? Will we continue to prove ourselves as a peaceful non-violent nation and helplessly see our brethren in Kashmir getting killed, sisters getting raped and children getting kidnapped?
This is now crystal clear that Pakistan will not support any proxy war, and will not initiate a limited or full scale war. My question to all Pakistani forum members.. What now? Please shed some light on what do you think about the next few months/ years.. and predict the next steps of India and Pakistan.
@Dubious @Mangus Ortus Novem @Shane @Signalian @ali_raza @Path-Finder @war&peace @Areesh @Farah Sohail @Zibago and others
My opinion has always been that Pakistan should take Kashmir matter to UN and follow it up with international community. And IK has done a suitable job as seen by the reaction of world leaders as well as UNGA. This step was necessary since India has been looking for a chance to malign Pakistan's image in front of international community. Indian leaders, Indian media, Indian Military, Indian Public, Indian Expat community - all have joined hands for one cause - to isolate, to disintegrate, to annihilate and wipe out Pakistan from the face of the Earth. In 2019, India and its military has been trying their best to trap Pakistan in one way or another to make a folly - one wrong decision to land in disaster. GOP and Pakistani Military have been level headed in making decisions whenever confronted by new situations, whether these are false flags, cross border incursions from Afghanistan through proxies supported by India, Violations on CFL, weapon acquisition, the issue of water distribution in rivers etc. Even then some members here on PDF were hellbent that Pakistan and its military have not responded aggressively to Indian misadventures.
Should the Indian pilot have been thrown in jail instead of being handed back to India?
Should the Indian submarine been fired at and sunk after it was locked on to ?
Should Pakistan send reinforcements into IOK ?
Should Pakistan send military in Afghanistan to rout Indian proxies ?
and there are a lot more questions which have been asked here.
Sure, Pakistan could have done all of the above. Given tit for tat response. But what was really required from Pakistan was to show restraint in matters that could escalate within minutes and turn into full fledged war. India will not attack Pakistan militarily in an all out war. India has been slowly damaging Pakistan since early 2000's. USA sitting next to Pakistan in Afghanistan gave India a lot of options to capitalize upon and India did. The likes of TTP were born, BLA/BRA and other related factions became stronger, Pakistan's armed support for Indian occupied Kashmir's struggle was stopped and India started labeling Pakistan time and again for all the disastrous incidents that happened in India. However, 20 years on wards, Pakistan stands at a stable ground now.
You have asked, what now ?
Pakistan is continuing its duty to raise the Kashmir issue in UN, there is another avenue that can be pursued - the coalition formed by KSA gives a good example of Muslim countries working together Militarily to pursue common goals. Pakistan has delivered the message of IOK freedom across the globe, even to its close friends like China. The response has been observed.
Now its time for Pakistan to form and lead a coalition of its own- a coalition of Muslim countries who are concerned about struggle of oppressed Muslims throughout the world. Pakistan should lead this coalition by inviting countries like Turkey, Malaysia, Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, former USSR states like Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan etc. This can go on further in two ways - either through countries under OIC or approaching UN mission with a proposal of Task force from Muslim countries which are interested in conducting peace-keeping operations in IOK. India would of course stand defiantly against both options and will never allow a UN peace keeping mission inside IOK. Another option is Pakistan Military openly and actively sending troops to Yemen war with KSA which would result in starting a border conflict with Iran but will allow full support from KSA and its allies like UAE against Indian Military in kashmir. This option will help allow KSA and UAE to fund Kashmir struggle while Pakistan opens its corridors again for freedom fighters and starts supporting the freedom struggle inside Kashmir with supplies of men and material. In both cases- Pakistan leading a coalition of Muslim countries or joining KSA's coalition- India simply cannot blame Pakistan singularly as it has been doing in the past. Now India will be facing multiple muslim countries assisting Pakistan in assisting the freedom Kashmiris in IOK. This will not only solve the funding issue which Pakistan faces now but also India's plan to isolate Pakistan from the rest of the world will be nullified. In 1980's, the USSR was defeated by major partnering of three countries- USA, Pakistan, KSA. Alliance is the key factor here.
However, if any of above plans are followed, at some stage Pakistan will have to use military force to attack kashmir when the struggle is at its peak. This is the same way how India used Mukti Bahini in East Pakistan - when the insurgency rose to its peak, Indian forces invaded as Pakistan attacked in the west. So, if India does not attack, even then Pakistan will have to attack to capitalize on the opportunity created by Freedom fighters.
You have mentioned that Mountain terrain is excellent for Guerilla warfare. Yes and No. Any terrain can be excellent for Guerilla warfare, whether its a jungle or desert or plain land. But what about the Guerillas ? Guerillas are trained personnel, they are trained to fight with help and assistance from locals, they use hit and run tactics, they ambush, snipe at enemy commanders, sabotage bases and depots etc. Pakistan is using its intel and SF assets inside Pakistan primarily. 4-6 SSG operators can effectively conduct mission through their established training standards than 10-20 freedom fighters who just know how to fire guns. Not anyone holding a gun becomes a guerilla. Pakistan Military cannot spare own troops to venture inside IOK and start conducting operations against BSF and IA. Similarly, ISI assets will need to be placed inside IOK who will coordinate and communicate within the locals to support SSG operators and other local freedom fighters. A whole set-up needs to be established for this purpose. Supply dumps and routes will need to be set up, medical camps will need to be established as wounded will not be attending hospitals. If SSG operators are made incharge of freedom fighter sections then through their leadership and guidance, some sort of success in Ops could be expected, otherwise be prepared for massacres also. Also a rise of disastrous incidents will start occurring inside Pakistan as India will absolutely retaliate in its own method, just like the ones in past decade. India will start a crackdown on freedom struggle more stringently than before, deploy more wings of BSF and the valley will remain constant curfew. If Pakistan turns to international community, its voice will not be heard due to its military presence inside IOK. So far IK's voice has been heard since the world knows that Pakistan is not participating militarily or covertly in any operations inside Kashmir. Even then if Pakistan follows the above plan, then the stats could look like 50-75 freedom fighters martyred and maybe 100 BSF troopers killed, where will this go from then on ? probably in next 2-3 years, 150 freedom fighters martyred and 200 BSF troopers killed. A guerilla war can be started but circumstances will keep getting uglier and more messy. Indian troops will not stop their atrocities, those will increase. India will take revenge for its fallen troopers and freedom fighters will do the same. More killing on both sides. CFL will remain hot all the time. The firing wont cease to exist because Indians will be anticipating an attack from Pakistan and will deploy BSF to check if movement across CFL is happening. At some stage, Pakistan or India will attack due to situation in Kashmir and the war will begin. Last time, it was kargil war.
I have tried to create a picture of few military options. I still think that its best to create a consortium of Muslim countries to follow up Kashmir issue without using military intervention. If more voices speak up and join in this cause, the struggle for Indian occupied Kashmir's freedom will remain in headlines. Pakistan is not falling into the traps set by India and not being lured into a war neither into a sticky situation - so the direction seems to be correct.
