Pakistan’s Evolving Nuclear Weapons Infrastructure

[Joe Shearer]

What appears to be the rise of hardline hindutva rhetoric vis-a-vis strategic posture is only the latest manifestation of a deep seated frustration of the Indian society and political-bureaucratic-military centres of power, a frustration that has been nearly 30 years in the making. What has changed, particularly after 26/11 is the the pubic appetite for this frustration, and the inexoric need to find a solution to this deadlock. BJP offered a solution, or pretended to, and people bought it, hook line and sinker.

The political-bureaucratic -military class for a long time had no real solutions, other than prostrate and call for talks, no matter what Pakistan did or was perceived to be doing and getting away with scott free. Manmohan Singh as PM prostrating and whining that India has no option but to talk, right after Mumbai and other supposed provocations. When you are unable to offer solutions, no matter how pragmatic you are and no matter how many good intentions you might have, your thinking and philosophy will be replaced by another that offers or pretends to offer solutions. Thats exactly what is happening, at the civilian level and upwards to the political-military circles.

The perception (right or wrong) was that the only party gaining from Indian military-political strategic sanity was Pakistan and its professed unpredictability, and that Indian sanity was delivering a raw deal for India. It was natural it would be under pressure to be upended, by a more hawkish doctrine.

For all intents and purposes, we are following Pakistan's footsteps. Pakistan, wittingly or not, was responsible for this change in thinking within India.

At first blush, I can only agree on the nature of the appetite. On the other hand, a possible reading of the need being anorexic is tempting, though not entirely devoid of malice. Your control over your spell-checker seems to be as drifting as you have deemed the military-bureaucratic policy towards Pakistan to be.

On a serious note, @Oscar spelt out the unfolding scenario with his customary relentless rationality. I am interpreting his remarks freely hereafter; any false notes are entirely my own misreading of his very subtle political dissection.

He depicts a former heterogeneoous situation on the one side, with rational and progressive forces in a minority muffled by a fearful majority, concealing its fear as bravely as it could, in the face of mighty odds, but with a further concealed element of extreme and suicidal intent awaiting an opportunity to do harm, thoughtless of the consequences to their own nation of such harm. On the other side, he pointed to what you have spoken of with such scathing contempt, a sane and rational - and stable - entity not given to mad adventures. He, however, has no contempt for it; instead, there is a slight, scarcely detectable wistful note. Having a sane opponent is no bad thing, not at all.

He then points to the replacement of a predictable Indian sanity by an unpredictable propensity to lash out, but also points out that the lashing out is singularly ineffective; it merely serves to give the concealed element an excuse to come out of hiding and to brandish its savagery before a panic-stricken multitude ready to believe that the end of the world is nigh. What the BJP's braggadocio brings out is the worst of the Pakistani state, the lunatic fringe. The strutting about looking, sounding and dressing warlike has no effect except to justify to every insecure individual on the other side their apocalyptic vision.

Where will this end?

On a final, pessimistic note, you do realise that the earlier situation has not changed, not one little bit: you have made the matter simple and clear by saying

For all intents and purposes, we are following Pakistan's footsteps. Pakistan, wittingly or not, was responsible for this change in thinking within India.

So what has changed? What Pakistan's establishment did pushed our buttons then; what they are doing is pushing our buttons now.

 

[CriticalThought]

At first blush, I can only agree on the nature of the appetite. On the other hand, a possible reading of the need being anorexic is tempting, though not entirely devoid of malice. Your control over your spell-checker seems to be as drifting as you have deemed the military-bureaucratic policy towards Pakistan to be.

On a serious note, @Oscar spelt out the unfolding scenario with his customary relentless rationality. I am interpreting his remarks freely hereafter; any false notes are entirely my own misreading of his very subtle political dissection.

He depicts a former heterogeneoous situation on the one side, with rational and progressive forces in a minority muffled by a fearful majority, concealing its fear as bravely as it could, in the face of mighty odds, but with a further concealed element of extreme and suicidal intent awaiting an opportunity to do harm, thoughtless of the consequences to their own nation of such harm. On the other side, he pointed to what you have spoken of with such scathing contempt, a sane and rational - and stable - entity not given to mad adventures. He, however, has no contempt for it; instead, there is a slight, scarcely detectable wistful note. Having a sane opponent is no bad thing, not at all.

He then points to the replacement of a predictable Indian sanity by an unpredictable propensity to lash out, but also points out that the lashing out is singularly ineffective; it merely serves to give the concealed element an excuse to come out of hiding and to brandish its savagery before a panic-stricken multitude ready to believe that the end of the world is nigh. What the BJP's braggadocio brings out is the worst of the Pakistani state, the lunatic fringe. The strutting about looking, sounding and dressing warlike has no effect except to justify to every insecure individual on the other side their apocalyptic vision.

Where will this end?

At the very end, there will be Ghazwa-e-Hind. The only thing is, nobody knows when it is fated to happen, and it is irrational to seek its precipitation.

 

[Joe Shearer]

At the very end, there will be Ghazwa-e-Hind. The only thing is, nobody knows when it is fated to happen, and it is irrational to seek its precipitation.

I do not, as a matter of rule, enter into theological quests.

 

[Didact]

At first blush, I can only agree on the nature of the appetite. On the other hand, a possible reading of the need being anorexic is tempting, though not entirely devoid of malice. Your control over your spell-checker seems to be as drifting as you have deemed the military-bureaucratic policy towards Pakistan to be.

On a serious note, @Oscar spelt out the unfolding scenario with his customary relentless rationality. I am interpreting his remarks freely hereafter; any false notes are entirely my own misreading of his very subtle political dissection.

He depicts a former heterogeneoous situation on the one side, with rational and progressive forces in a minority muffled by a fearful majority, concealing its fear as bravely as it could, in the face of mighty odds, but with a further concealed element of extreme and suicidal intent awaiting an opportunity to do harm, thoughtless of the consequences to their own nation of such harm. On the other side, he pointed to what you have spoken of with such scathing contempt, a sane and rational - and stable - entity not given to mad adventures. He, however, has no contempt for it; instead, there is a slight, scarcely detectable wistful note. Having a sane opponent is no bad thing, not at all.

He then points to the replacement of a predictable Indian sanity by an unpredictable propensity to lash out, but also points out that the lashing out is singularly ineffective; it merely serves to give the concealed element an excuse to come out of hiding and to brandish its savagery before a panic-stricken multitude ready to believe that the end of the world is nigh. What the BJP's braggadocio brings out is the worst of the Pakistani state, the lunatic fringe. The strutting about looking, sounding and dressing warlike has no effect except to justify to every insecure individual on the other side their apocalyptic vision.

Where will this end?

On a final, pessimistic note, you do realise that the earlier situation has not changed, not one little bit: you have made the matter simple and clear by saying

For all intents and purposes, we are following Pakistan's footsteps. Pakistan, wittingly or not, was responsible for this change in thinking within India.

So what has changed? What Pakistan's establishment did pushed our buttons then; what they are doing is pushing our buttons now.

The spell checker doesn't seem to work when writing from cell phones. And despite being a 99.9 percentiler in CAT, I'm absolutely pitiful when it comes to spelling. No excuses for it. Am simply not good at it.

It's a bit disappointing for me to be honest. I left very good opportunities for Master's and PHD in in US against my prof's wishes and joined an Indian B School, coz I wanted to do something about this country from here itself. To see it slipping across so many parameters makes me feel like I made the wrong Choice.

Frustration all round.

But more on topic, I do believe that momentum after a point has an inexorable inertia, and BJP or whoever is at the helm can only tilt the boat so much until that tilt becomes uncorrectable.

BJP's Sabre Rattling has gone so far that space for strategy has shrunk. I do not mind aggrrsiona, but I necessarily mind shinkage of space for diplomacy.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The spell checker doesn't seem to work when writing from cell phones. And despite being a 99.9 percentiler in CAT, I'm absolutely pitiful when it comes to spelling. No excuses for it. Am simply not good at it.

It's a bit disappointing for me to be honest. I left very good opportunities for Master's and PHD in in US against my prof's wishes and joined an Indian B School, coz I wanted to do something about this country from here itself. To see it slipping across so many parameters makes me feel like I made the wrong Choice.

Frustration all round.

But more on topic, I do believe that momentum after a point has an inexorable inertia, and BJP or whoever is at the helm can only tilt the boat so much until that tilt becomes uncorrectable.

BJP's Sabre Rattling has gone so far that space for strategy has shrunk. I do not mind aggrrsiona, but I necessarily mind shinkage of space for diplomacy.

Cheer up.

Everyone has a bad day. Even didacts.

The BJP has had it. Just watch for the first course correction over the next few weeks.

 

[khanmubashir]

A senior colleague of mine from rahim year Khan
told me that he saw open army trucks in desert with missiles
On board
I said because that's what they wanted u to see
How do we know they ain't dummies like those on chowks

 

[SQ8]

What appears to be the rise of hardline hindutva rhetoric vis-a-vis strategic posture is only the latest manifestation of a deep seated frustration of the Indian society and political-bureaucratic-military centres of power, a frustration that has been nearly 30 years in the making. What has changed, particularly after 26/11 is the the pubic appetite for this frustration, and the inexoric need to find a solution to this deadlock. BJP offered a solution, or pretended to, and people bought it, hook line and sinker.

The political-bureaucratic -military class for a long time had no real solutions, other than prostrate and call for talks, no matter what Pakistan did or was perceived to be doing and getting away with scott free. Manmohan Singh as PM prostrating and whining that India has no option but to talk, right after Mumbai and other supposed provocations. When you are unable to offer solutions, no matter how pragmatic you are and no matter how many good intentions you might have, your thinking and philosophy will be replaced by another that offers or pretends to offer solutions. Thats exactly what is happening, at the civilian level and upwards to the political-military circles.

The perception (right or wrong) was that the only party gaining from Indian military-political strategic sanity was Pakistan and its professed unpredictability, and that Indian sanity was delivering a raw deal for India. It was natural it would be under pressure to be upended, by a more hawkish doctrine.

For all intents and purposes, we are following Pakistan's footsteps. Pakistan, wittingly or not, was responsible for this change in thinking within India.

I do not disagree with this, since it’s basically a case of the Kargil Kabals chickens coming home to roost. As much as the blame is put on 26/11; that was just a nail in the coffin that started with Kargil. Where there was true peace right on the horizon, 4 mediocre men looking for their hallelujah of glory decided to derail the last chance for an amicable settlement.

I had a similar discussion with Iranians not long ago: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/simorgh-class-drones-ashes-of-the-beast.455519/page-5#post-10970821

They missed the point, and are in utter disbelief [not surprised] even though their deeply buried facilities are completely unmasked (even the latest one), and US would have a fairly good idea of where Iranian ballistic missiles + TEL are kept, and numerous transportation routes (certain type of information is not for public consumption). People, in general, have no idea about these incredibly sophisticated surveillance networks monitoring the globe. One shall wonder how Stuxnet landed into Natanz facility, and almost ruined it (when US wanted to damage Iranian nuclear program).

@Oscar
@Joe Shearer
@Hellfire

The other issue specific to Pakistan(or India for that matter) is our bravado regarding each other is completely lost when it comes to the west.
Where the response to an Indian offer may be “to hell with you and Ill see you on the battlefield”, to a US intel officer it would be “will my family get citizenship too?”

P.S

You didn’t read it here but I have it on good authority that the latest Compass Call is able to pick Individual bits from inside electronic hardware.

 

[Hellfire]

And I completely support using human carriers to disperse within Indian population.

Since you have mentioned Ghazwa-e-Hind, I now correlate with your post the other day. And this above quoted extract from your post.

While you have a right to your view, you need to understand the repercussions here. Such statements, while may be attributed to you, are not in isolation, and is something that further undermines your own security, not enhance it. And it has been factored in by a multitude of nations for contingency based actions.

Such inputs serve to undermine the intent in whatsoever attempts at peace you (Pakistan) may profess.

Further, such statements undermine your claims to securing your nuclear devices, which, I happen to know is a fact (as also emphasized duly by @Oscar ) because the prevalence of this thought process exactly plays out in the narrative that has been built - of Pakistani devices being a risk of falling into hands of a radical. That Pakistan has tried to pass off Mumbai attack as an act of 'non-state' actor and subsequently delayed the trials or outright undermined the due processes of law, has not exactly helped it's case.

@Arsalan I hope you have gone through the thread.

You didn’t read it here but I have it on good authority that the latest Compass Call is able to pick Individual bits from inside electronic hardware.

Again, no two views about it.

The BJP has had it. Just watch for the first course correction over the next few weeks.

Doubt it.

In addition to the statement of the COAS which we have already skimmed over, the use of Drones is a very important one which is being glossed over.

Unconfirmed reports through grapevine indicate a test has been done two and half months back with encouraging results.

But confirmed reports indicate arrival of Heron TPs and deployment thereby relieving the jury rigged Herons being used by India since 2016.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Since you have mentioned Ghazwa-e-Hind, I now correlate with your post the other day. And this above quoted extract from your post.

While you have a right to your view, you need to understand the repercussions here. Such statements, while may be attributed to you, are not in isolation, and is something that further undermines your own security, not enhance it. And it has been factored in by a multitude of nations for contingency based actions.

Such inputs serve to undermine the intent in whatsoever attempts at peace you (Pakistan) may profess.

Further, such statements undermine your claims to securing your nuclear devices, which, I happen to know is a fact (as also emphasized duly by @Oscar ) because the prevalence of this thought process exactly plays out in the narrative that has been built - of Pakistani devices being a risk of falling into hands of a radical. That Pakistan has tried to pass off Mumbai attack as an act of 'non-state' actor and subsequently delayed the trials or outright undermined the due processes of law, has not exactly helped it's case.

@Arsalan I hope you have gone through the thread.



Again, no two views about it.

Doubt it.

In addition to the statement of the COAS which we have already skimmed over, the use of Drones is a very important one which is being glossed over.

Unconfirmed reports through grapevine indicate a test has been done two and half months back with encouraging results.

But confirmed reports indicate arrival of Heron TPs and deployment thereby relieving the jury rigged Herons being used by India since 2016.

These are orthogonal. The coming and going of the BJP has nothing to do with implementing current technology.

 

[Hellfire]

These are orthogonal. The coming and going of the BJP has nothing to do with implementing current technology.

The political decision making .... and credit?

Anyways, let us see.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The political decision making .... and credit?

Anyways, let us see.

I don't see how the previous regime inhibited decision making by the Army. For instance, cross-border raids to hit jumping off points by terrorist-Army combines was not done for the first time in BJP days; you must be aware that it happened at least twice before, with zero publicity and fanfare.

Aerial reconnaissance was also always available; the urban legend of the MiG 25 sonic boom over Islamabad was just that, urban legend, one initiated by the other side to justify to its struggling nation the purchase of new and shiny toys. On a serious note, it was carried out by this MiG, and earlier, by English Electric Canberras. The forces were left to be managed by their professional leadership, and there was interference only at the very top.

I mentioned Prem Bhagat vs. Gopal Bewoor somewhere, maybe in this very thread; the supersession happened due to Y. B. Chavan putting pressure on Mrs. Gandhi on behalf of the possibility of a Maratha COAS, meaning one from Maharashtra - Bewoor was far from being a Maratha. Now the government seeks to get involved at every level; the pressure is not visible because it is out of the range of normal news coverage.

The present government really needs no comment, and, on a site such as this, I will also refrain from comment - for reasons as obvious as yours

 

[Hellfire]

I don't see how the previous regime inhibited decision making by the Army. For instance, cross-border raids to hit jumping off points by terrorist-Army combines was not done for the first time in BJP days; you must be aware that it happened at least twice before, with zero publicity and fanfare.

Cross border Operations

You shall be surprised at my views on it. Although I used to rub Pakistani members on what is now claimed as Operation Ginger but deleted the posts (backend access will show that) Occurred in 2011 on 29th August.

Rest is no comment. Suffice to say, none is clean. AFSPA was goner under Bikram Singh, it was KT Parnaik who told his coursemate to be ready to accept his 'disagreement' as GOC-in-C Northern Command, and also reportedly told Omar Abdullah to concentrate on governance issues instead of asking GOC-in-C to agree to removal of AFSPA. Chidambram tried his level best.

 

[SQ8]

I don't see how the previous regime inhibited decision making by the Army. For instance, cross-border raids to hit jumping off points by terrorist-Army combines was not done for the first time in BJP days; you must be aware that it happened at least twice before, with zero publicity and fanfare.

Aerial reconnaissance was also always available; the urban legend of the MiG 25 sonic boom over Islamabad was just that, urban legend, one initiated by the other side to justify to its struggling nation the purchase of new and shiny toys. On a serious note, it was carried out by this MiG, and earlier, by English Electric Canberras. The forces were left to be managed by their professional leadership, and there was interference only at the very top.

I mentioned Prem Bhagat vs. Gopal Bewoor somewhere, maybe in this very thread; the supersession happened due to Y. B. Chavan putting pressure on Mrs. Gandhi on behalf of the possibility of a Maratha COAS, meaning one from Maharashtra - Bewoor was far from being a Maratha. Now the government seeks to get involved at every level; the pressure is not visible because it is out of the range of normal news coverage.

The present government really needs no comment, and, on a site such as this, I will also refrain from comment - for reasons as obvious as yours

The problem right now is the lack of understanding on how the people and state on both sides have progressed.
From an Indian perspective the people have the impression that the people of Pakistan are in the same underdeveloped or regressive image they have of the state of Pakistan where for the most part and especially when it comes to urban Pakistan the people are as developed in lifestyles, education and social mentality contrary to what is portrayed. While one can repeat the aob story with the state and also where India could have still been smarter in its dealings...where it is relevant is regarding the cues for economic development and corruption where the establishment is concerned. That realization has finally kicked in along with the idea that it is no longer possible for a uniform to be on TV and go “Meray aziz humwatno”.
In addition the realization that charged up religious fanatics aren’t good as military assets has come at the cost of 40000 people and billions of dollars.
But as @Didact has put it, as this realization has come into effect here, the effects of the previous policies have now changed Indian mindsets for the worse. There was a full fledged attempt by the military to hold free and fair elections and despite rhetoric from all over, nothing bad can be said from keeping political thugs and borrowed ID cards away from the voting booths.
All of us saw the booths on the ground and compared to the last election where the previous minister for railways was stuffing ballot boxes with forged votes in front of a camera, this time it was every vote fair and counted despite the usual backdoor thuggery of the incumbent parties.

So as such today’s leadership is representative of the majority. Whether they are competent or not remains to be seen as from their U-turns and backtracking from bellicose electioneering mode to actual statecraft.

Where it pertains to the equation is that for once there is a consensus and the will to actually compromise and achieve peace here, that will is now gone from the Indian side not just for election purposes but I feel for simple intellectual reasons; as in the lack of them. So when I mentioned sanity, the Indian government’s political leadership today lacks it and its reflected in their domestic politics and policies. That reflects to who they select on posts both in bureaucracy and military, people who shape policies and will end up pushing back on this rare stumbling progressive ideals imbibed in the current Pakistani state of affairs.

My fear is that if this overture is ignored, the local backlash to it may lead to another divide with an increasingly belligerent or worse disjointed establishment in Pakistan and a weak civilian and political leadership l.
Who will then be unable to control any future incursions by the aforementioned “ghazwa” element hiding within the agencies and the non-state forces who have strongholds by virtue of philanthropy and preaching in the areas of lower Punjab.

To that end the Indian Military is focusing on achieving its 3-1 advantage in ALL aspects of warfare(I consider the two front drama .. well, a drama.. a tripe and nothing more).. that basic ratio that all aggresors have looked to achieve prior to engaging in warfare.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The problem right now is the lack of understanding on how the people and state on both sides have progressed.
From an Indian perspective the people have the impression that the people of Pakistan are in the same underdeveloped or regressive image they have of the state of Pakistan where for the most part and especially when it comes to urban Pakistan the people are as developed in lifestyles, education and social mentality contrary to what is portrayed. While one can repeat the aob story with the state and also where India could have still been smarter in its dealings...where it is relevant is regarding the cues for economic development and corruption where the establishment is concerned. That realization has finally kicked in along with the idea that it is no longer possible for a uniform to be on TV and go “Meray aziz humwatno”.
In addition the realization that charged up religious fanatics aren’t good as military assets has come at the cost of 40000 people and billions of dollars.
But as @Didact has put it, as this realization has come into effect here, the effects of the previous policies have now changed Indian mindsets for the worse. There was a full fledged attempt by the military to hold free and fair elections and despite rhetoric from all over, nothing bad can be said from keeping political thugs and borrowed ID cards away from the voting booths.
All of us saw the booths on the ground and compared to the last election where the previous minister for railways was stuffing ballot boxes with forged votes in front of a camera, this time it was every vote fair and counted despite the usual backdoor thuggery of the incumbent parties.

So as such today’s leadership is representative of the majority. Whether they are competent or not remains to be seen as from their U-turns and backtracking from bellicose electioneering mode to actual statecraft.

Where it pertains to the equation is that for once there is a consensus and the will to actually compromise and achieve peace here, that will is now gone from the Indian side not just for election purposes but I feel for simple intellectual reasons; as in the lack of them. So when I mentioned sanity, the Indian government’s political leadership today lacks it and its reflected in their domestic politics and policies. That reflects to who they select on posts both in bureaucracy and military, people who shape policies and will end up pushing back on this rare stumbling progressive ideals imbibed in the current Pakistani state of affairs.

My fear is that if this overture is ignored, the local backlash to it may lead to another divide with an increasingly belligerent or worse disjointed establishment in Pakistan and a weak civilian and political leadership l.
Who will then be unable to control any future incursions by the aforementioned “ghazwa” element hiding within the agencies and the non-state forces who have strongholds by virtue of philanthropy and preaching in the areas of lower Punjab.

To that end the Indian Military is focusing on achieving its 3-1 advantage in ALL aspects of warfare(I consider the two front drama .. well, a drama.. a tripe and nothing more).. that basic ratio that all aggresors have looked to achieve prior to engaging in warfare.

@hellfire

Please read this very, very carefully. He has captured the heart and soul of the viewpoint that we need to discard outmoded ideas and attitudes and look at what is really happening.

Doval is not the answer; Nirmala Sitharaman's winking and smirking at narration of head-hunting is not the answer; thrusting 56 inches of thorax into every policy matter is not the answer.

I realise that you and I differ on several vital aspects, but I beg you to read WITH AN OPEN MIND one of the best snapshots of the current situation that you (and I) are likely to get within PDF. The scary part is that outside PDF, there are numerous such intelligent and clear-visioned accounts to be read.

More later.

 

[PDFChamp]

He then points to the replacement of a predictable Indian sanity by an unpredictable propensity to lash out, but also points out that the lashing out is singularly ineffective; it merely serves to give the concealed element an excuse to come out of hiding and to brandish its savagery before a panic-stricken multitude ready to believe that the end of the world is nigh.

Good points. These are steps to harbinger of things to come and none of it any good. Local politics and incompetence are surely the reason neither side can get all they want without risking blowing everything up. And, you can't discount the "help" from outsiders who want a say in the region by ensuring there is escalation of "ineffective" solution so they can stay relevant.

This begs the question, from a nobody, why not work things out yourself which are a win-win for those of you who live there? And a tough question for my Indian friends, why corner and threaten Pak just to be a hegemon of a poor region being left more and more behind? Even if India some how "wins", there should be no doubt that you will be more and more dependent on the Uncle. (Like the old story of a monkey dividing things up "equally").