Pakistan’s Evolving Nuclear Weapons Infrastructure

[Hellfire]

Boss have you checked the opening post? The thread is based on the "findings" of his excellency raj47!
(should have been deleted in my opinion but it was way before i was a MOD and no point in deleting it after so much time)

I did. The issue is, the assessment is quite 'interesting'.


LeGenD has been quite astute all along. A real pleasure to read him, as opposed to certain observations which may, to be precise, be inclined towards a bravado? (Not able to define exactly)

As long as your comments befit your stature, you have nothing to fear.

It has less to do with fear, my friend. It has more to do with certain limitations (self imposed) on certain topics that prevent me from actually contributing much Tagged @Joe Shearer as he has a good understanding and may be interested in this topic for intellectual curiosity.

Suffice to say the dispersion, as is being suggested here, is, if I may, quite sensible and expected. A member has been quite kind to explain the creation of, just to paraphrase, what I would call, redundancies within the overall infrastructure, a very wise move.

Just a hypothetical observation, merely my opinion and nothing else - there seems to have been an increased thrust on 'nuclear' infrastructure being built up in general region Baluchistan due West of Karachi. That makes sense.

 

[Arsalan]

I did. The issue is, the assessment is quite 'interesting'.


LeGenD has been quite astute all along. A real pleasure to read him, as opposed to certain observations which may, to be precise, be inclined towards a bravado? (Not able to define exactly)




It has less to do with fear, my friend. It has more to do with certain limitations (self imposed) on certain topics that prevent me from actually contributing much Tagged @Joe Shearer as he has a good understanding and may be interested in this topic for intellectual curiosity.

Suffice to say the dispersion, as is being suggested here, is, if I may, quite sensible and expected. A member has been quite kind to explain the creation of, just to paraphrase, what I would call, redundancies within the overall infrastructure, a very wise move.

Just a hypothetical observation, merely my opinion and nothing else - there seems to have been an increased thrust on 'nuclear' infrastructure being built up in general region Baluchistan due West of Karachi. That makes sense.

You will make me go through the whole thread then!! I just stopped after realizing the Raj47 connection!!

 

[Hellfire]

You will make me go through the whole thread then!! I just stopped after realizing the Raj47 connection!!

It is worth the effort Dear @Arsalan

I can only give you pointers. Can not elaborate more.

If you are keen on the topic, I suggest read it, join the dots from open sources and your sources and understand the context. And keep it to yourself

 

[Arsalan]

It is worth the effort Dear @Arsalan

I can only give you pointers. Can not elaborate more.

If you are keen on the topic, I suggest read it, join the dots from open sources and your sources and understand the context. And keep it to yourself

Will do!!

 

[Joe Shearer]

@Joe Shearer Pretty interesting read.

Just finished reading it through. Yes, it's interesting.

You will make me go through the whole thread then!! I just stopped after realizing the Raj47 connection!!

Go through it. @LeGenD has it spot on.

There are other takeaways as well.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

The most important question is which states will inherit the nukes once both India and Pakistan get balkanized in 2020 after peace returns to the subcontinent.

 

[SQ8]

Just finished reading it through. Yes, it's interesting.



Go through it. @LeGenD has it spot on.

There are other takeaways as well.

@hellfire
The point raised by @LeGenD is somewhat accurate as the realms of commercial imagery were going to catch up. After all, social media like facebook and even forums like these have proven treasure troves for HUMINT and what used to take years of planning and insertion of trained personnel now is accomplished by twenty somethings with fake ID's and a picture of a pretty girl.

But also that the doctrine of mobility and "plain sight" concealment has had to be changed in response to what are prying eyes both from your end, the US and certain hot-blooded religious nutjobs that hide in the thermal layers of the security apparatus to avoid being openly picked up by the agencies. Moreover, the bigger issue is that with the onus of first strike seen to be rapidly disappearing vis-a-vis India also known as sanity; it was realized that survivability of assets is also becoming paramount.

Finally, the sophistication of the weapons system has increased along with their quantity and maintenance costs. Which requires dedicated facilities and storage along with secure controls to prevent along with satisfy the nuclear safety regulatory authorities(with whom Pakistan actually works VERY closely despite the ramblings of media in the west).

 

[Hellfire]

@hellfire
The point raised by @LeGenD is somewhat accurate as the realms of commercial imagery were going to catch up. After all, social media like facebook and even forums like these have proven treasure troves for HUMINT and what used to take years of planning and insertion of trained personnel now is accomplished by twenty somethings with fake ID's and a picture of a pretty girl.

But also that the doctrine of mobility and "plain sight" concealment has had to be changed in response to what are prying eyes both from your end, the US and certain hot-blooded religious nutjobs that hide in the thermal layers of the security apparatus to avoid being openly picked up by the agencies. Moreover, the bigger issue is that with the onus of first strike seen to be rapidly disappearing vis-a-vis India also known as sanity; it was realized that survivability of assets is also becoming paramount.

Finally, the sophistication of the weapons system has increased along with their quantity and maintenance costs. Which requires dedicated facilities and storage along with secure controls to prevent along with satisfy the nuclear safety regulatory authorities(with whom Pakistan actually works VERY closely despite the ramblings of media in the west).

No two views on the above.

Since the thread has been sourced on open sources, I drew the attention of members who have the maturity to understand and suitably comment/interact/add if at all inclined to.

Thanks

 

[Joe Shearer]

The most important question is which states will inherit the nukes once both India and Pakistan get balkanized in 2020 after peace returns to the subcontinent.

You could put in a bid for a few? In your independent capacity as a uniquely configured Indo-Pak Balkan segment?

@hellfire
The point raised by @LeGenD is somewhat accurate as the realms of commercial imagery were going to catch up. After all, social media like facebook and even forums like these have proven treasure troves for HUMINT and what used to take years of planning and insertion of trained personnel now is accomplished by twenty somethings with fake ID's and a picture of a pretty girl.

But also that the doctrine of mobility and "plain sight" concealment has had to be changed in response to what are prying eyes both from your end, the US and certain hot-blooded religious nutjobs that hide in the thermal layers of the security apparatus to avoid being openly picked up by the agencies. Moreover, the bigger issue is that with the onus of first strike seen to be rapidly disappearing vis-a-vis India also known as sanity; it was realized that survivability of assets is also becoming paramount.

Finally, the sophistication of the weapons system has increased along with their quantity and maintenance costs. Which requires dedicated facilities and storage along with secure controls to prevent along with satisfy the nuclear safety regulatory authorities(with whom Pakistan actually works VERY closely despite the ramblings of media in the west).

@hellfire

The main point made by Oscar to those who were listening carefully was the degradation of standards on both sides of the border. While you and I may be inured and case-hardened against accusations of carelessness and reckless proliferation addressed to entities across the border, speaking entirely for myself, the nightmare prospect is of an erosion of responsible process on THIS side of the border.

 

[SQ8]

@hellfire @Joe Shearer Lest I be lynched for presenting this and also ditching my hatred persona here which Ive developed so keenly..
It was the relative sanity or rather respect for realpolitik and merit within the Indian Armed Forces and Civil Services which is now at risk from mirrored "Mullah-Military" or in this case "Hindutva-Military" axis that is developing. While it would be wholly unfair to compare in severity, it does not mean one ignores the potential for ignition given the right motive for which nutjobs exist in India. Nutjobs who may currently be powerless but seem to be moving to a position where their pseudo-religious delusions(wilful or not) are beginning to define policies(which currently may seem harmless) that can have social repercussions which could spread much faster than what can be expected in a fully "mature" and "developed" society such as those found in the west.

If the current overtures are ignored in their stubbornness or simply out of thrice bitten fourth shy attitude, it is possible that similar forces may rise again here and unlike the less "brave" militant ideals that are portrayed by saffron sarkar looking for political gains, here the issue is that death may be welcomed in periods of Hoor-pangs that may lead to a weakened military and more maulanas sending men.
What repercussions that could have is the stuff of real life nightmares far from the bravado of online forum based nuclear exchanges.

 

[Hellfire]

You could put in a bid for a few? In your independent capacity as a uniquely configured Indo-Pak Balkan segment?

Oh that is a 'neutral' act

@hellfire

The main point made by Oscar to those who were listening carefully was the degradation of standards on both sides of the border. While you and I may be inured and case-hardened against accusations of carelessness and reckless proliferation addressed to entities across the border, speaking entirely for myself, the nightmare prospect is of an erosion of responsible process on THIS side of the border.

If that is the intent of @Oscar then I do concur with the above assessment.

The threshold has gone severely down, I agree (theirs was always, publicly as postured, low). That was precisely the point which I was alluding to the other day, albeit, the military aspects tended to dominate to appreciate how 'fighting dirty' is achievable if the countries are willing to bear the political, social, economic and human resources cost.

Dispersed forces with an ability to sustain a strike (as being consistently reinforced from the data rendered of 'nominal bomb' - for novices and fanboys' clarification, a 20 KT warhead) with a casualty rate that may be almost similar to a prolonged conventional engagement to achieve similar results, renders military options to respond either with a conventional or proportional/disproportional non-conventional strike as either counter force and/or counter value strike. It also allows for lowering of threshold where military planners are willing to consider a first strike.

The matters are not helped when the collective population is led to believe that open declaration of every weapon platform as a potential nuclear carrier is providing greater security or a 'guarantee' against any conventional strike/attack. On the contrary, it lends tremendous pressure on the authorities of any such nation to both diplomatic and political pressures that may force it to make bad choices.

The oft touted 'plan' of neutralization of nuclear weapons, while no official document or treaty to validate the existence of any such understanding exists, gains traction on backs of such seemingly irrational declarations, as the repercussions extend far out of the region.

I remain, constrained, to further comment on this.

 

[LeGenD]

I had a similar discussion with Iranians not long ago: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/simorgh-class-drones-ashes-of-the-beast.455519/page-5#post-10970821

They missed the point, and are in utter disbelief [not surprised] even though their deeply buried facilities are completely unmasked (even the latest one), and US would have a fairly good idea of where Iranian ballistic missiles + TEL are kept, and numerous transportation routes (certain type of information is not for public consumption). People, in general, have no idea about these incredibly sophisticated surveillance networks monitoring the globe. One shall wonder how Stuxnet landed into Natanz facility, and almost ruined it (when US wanted to damage Iranian nuclear program).

@Oscar
@Joe Shearer
@Hellfire

 

[Hellfire]

@Joe Shearer @Oscar

Sirs.

My posit aimed at @CriticalThought the other day, was precisely to present a military aspect of the situation. And for those who have the ability to understand and fathom the repercussions and the rather precarious position we are in today if the military rationale is allowed to gain traction by ignoring the political, socio-economic and human resource considerations. As a military commander, I am comfortable in using a nuclear strike in a tactical operation and can put forth 'compelling' arguments in favour of the same while underplaying the potential response.

The limitations in being able to clearly define issues at times, purely out of not being based on open sources, come to fore in such interactions.

@CriticalThought The smileys were precisely a message to you to understand the intent. It was to present to you an unwillingness on my part to discuss the matter much further due to reasons best known to me. And my tagging others was to understand you as have not dealt with you earlier.

I had a similar discussion with Iranians not long ago: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/simorgh-class-drones-ashes-of-the-beast.455519/page-5#post-10970821

They missed the point, and are in utter disbelief [not surprised] even though their deeply buried installations are completely unmasked (even the latest one), and US would have a very good idea of where Iranian ballistic missiles + TEL are kept, and numerous transportation routes (certain type of information is not for public consumption). People, in general, have no idea about these sophisticated surveillance networks. One must wonder how Stuxnet landed into Natanz facility, and almost ruined it (when US wanted to damage Iranian nuclear program).

@Oscar
@Joe Shearer
@Hellfire

I was really appreciating your patience, your tenacity and persistence in correcting misperceptions here and elsewhere tagged you to drive in a point to another member.

Let me just post a news article for your further reference:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...with-30-foreign-sats/articleshow/66859630.cms

Thanks. A pleasure reading your posts.

 

[Didact]

@hellfire @Joe Shearer Lest I be lynched for presenting this and also ditching my hatred persona here which Ive developed so keenly..
It was the relative sanity or rather respect for realpolitik and merit within the Indian Armed Forces and Civil Services which is now at risk from mirrored "Mullah-Military" or in this case "Hindutva-Military" axis that is developing. While it would be wholly unfair to compare in severity, it does not mean one ignores the potential for ignition given the right motive for which nutjobs exist in India. Nutjobs who may currently be powerless but seem to be moving to a position where their pseudo-religious delusions(wilful or not) are beginning to define policies(which currently may seem harmless) that can have social repercussions which could spread much faster than what can be expected in a fully "mature" and "developed" society such as those found in the west.

If the current overtures are ignored in their stubbornness or simply out of thrice bitten fourth shy attitude, it is possible that similar forces may rise again here and unlike the less "brave" militant ideals that are portrayed by saffron sarkar looking for political gains, here the issue is that death may be welcomed in periods of Hoor-pangs that may lead to a weakened military and more maulanas sending men.
What repercussions that could have is the stuff of real life nightmares far from the bravado of online forum based nuclear exchanges.

What appears to be the rise of hardline hindutva rhetoric vis-a-vis strategic posture is only the latest manifestation of a deep seated frustration of the Indian society and political-bureaucratic-military centres of power, a frustration that has been nearly 30 years in the making. What has changed, particularly after 26/11 is the the pubic appetite for this frustration, and the inexoric need to find a solution to this deadlock. BJP offered a solution, or pretended to, and people bought it, hook line and sinker.

The political-bureaucratic -military class for a long time had no real solutions, other than prostrate and call for talks, no matter what Pakistan did or was perceived to be doing and getting away with scott free. Manmohan Singh as PM prostrating and whining that India has no option but to talk, right after Mumbai and other supposed provocations. When you are unable to offer solutions, no matter how pragmatic you are and no matter how many good intentions you might have, your thinking and philosophy will be replaced by another that offers or pretends to offer solutions. Thats exactly what is happening, at the civilian level and upwards to the political-military circles.

The perception (right or wrong) was that the only party gaining from Indian military-political strategic sanity was Pakistan and its professed unpredictability, and that Indian sanity was delivering a raw deal for India. It was natural it would be under pressure to be upended, by a more hawkish doctrine.

For all intents and purposes, we are following Pakistan's footsteps. Pakistan, wittingly or not, was responsible for this change in thinking within India.

 

[CriticalThought]

@Joe Shearer @Oscar

Sirs.

My posit aimed at @CriticalThought the other day, was precisely to present a military aspect of the situation. And for those who have the ability to understand and fathom the repercussions and the rather precarious position we are in today if the military rationale is allowed to gain traction by ignoring the political, socio-economic and human resource considerations. As a military commander, I am comfortable in using a nuclear strike in a tactical operation and can put forth 'compelling' arguments in favour of the same while underplaying the potential response.

The limitations in being able to clearly define issues at times, purely out of not being based on open sources, come to fore in such interactions.

@CriticalThought The smileys were precisely a message to you to understand the intent. It was to present to you an unwillingness on my part to discuss the matter much further due to reasons best known to me. And my tagging others was to understand you as have not dealt with you earlier.




I was really appreciating your patience, your tenacity and persistence in correcting misperceptions here and elsewhere tagged you to drive in a point to another member.

Let me just post a news article for your further reference:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...with-30-foreign-sats/articleshow/66859630.cms

Thanks. A pleasure reading your posts.

Thank you. I have previously written on the topic of discovery of our nuclear assets. A futuristic attack would use nano-sensors to gather ground level metrics on such things as vibrations in earth and air, level of gases in the air etc. From a dense enough dataset, one could infer movement of men and machines.

Even today, the way the country has been loaned out, with American drones flying around in past years, we should consider ourselves compromised. See my thread on the topic.

For us, security lies in numbers and the ability for first use before anyone can act on information. And I completely support using human carriers to disperse within Indian population.