Sir might have sounded sarcastic but it was not intended. I think what PAF will eventually end up doing is another Mirage/Rose thingie with F-16. But this time around it is a better bet as advanced versions of the bird are still flying and being produced.
Essentially, buy about forty or so new build birds and acquire as when we can get hold of, used birds and upgrade them in Turkey! To mitigate the spares issue -- we have some working relationship with Turkey and access to used planes -- just as we did in case of our Mirages. Almost 100 birds were bought to cannibalize for spares!
IMHO, 150 or so F-16 about 250 or so JFT's eventually upgraded to its definitive block (IV with campsites and new engine AESA and BVR) and about 50 heavy fighters will do the trick.
My 2C
Firstly we are all brothers here so no Sirs please.I am too humble a being to be elevated to the rank nor do I desire it.
The only reason I asked was the tone of the post which suggested something was not quite as pleasing to you and wanted to know to start another debate and perhaps break the numbers game and the delusions of grandeur which come out of some posters.
I do agree with your analysis. However it might have been better if we had gone down the route of some other acquisition cycle rather than the fickle US temperamental supply chain in spite of their products providing the biggest bang for the buck. My problem remains one of a paranoid approach of once bitten twice shy. The S word that is forever hanging over this relationship.
However we have chosen an easier path putting our prized possessions in the same hands where we have been chastised. Could we have done any different? Yes. Would the outcome have been any different possibly not.
The options open to us are to go lock stock and barrel for the M2K in 2002. 16s were no where in sight the assembly line was closing down and Pakistan was just coming out of recession. Would it have proven a better acquisition? The outlay would have been a couple of billions and the engine might have had to be upgraded. The French were down and possibly might have relented and the UAE M2Ks might have ended up with us. The planes were quoted at 60 million a pop which for second hand jobs were expensive to say the least. However the crunch question was whether the French would have provided us the assembly line and more importantly whether we would have been able to absorb the technological challenges. This could have been a hurdle which we thought not possible.
We chose to go down the JFT route which allowed us to establish the industry at a slower pace working with materials which we were used to and good support from our friends who although have made money from us have also in the process helped us a lot. A wise decision and as time wìll probably prove a fruitful one.
The J10 saga. We chose to go down the J10 routs when Musharraf returned from the US and signed a memorandum of understanding in 2008?,,?thereby committing our selves to buy 40 of them. It would have complied with our policy of not giving the US the chance to disable an integral arm of our fleet at its whim by covering our bases with duplicated platforms. We asked for changes to the platforms which were duly made however we heard a funny statement I have never made any sense out of that the platform was nonupgradeable and PAF felt that JFT had more chances of getting upgraded when every one including the very designer of JFT was telling us that a much simpler approach was utilized in JFT. Whether that was a fact or a face saving solution from the PAF to hide the incompetence of Zardari remains to be seen. Zardari has now gone however there is no sign of J10 inspite of its newer iteration. The engine is being blamed but we seem to be in no hurry to get the J10s. Noone seems to know whether the plan has been dropped totally or whether some turnkey events are being waited for before it starts arriving.
The Russian offerings. Strategic regional reallignment has brought these two bitter enemies of the past closer together. We have inked a deal for some helos and there is talk of a lot more. Whether this is reality or another smoke screen remains to be seen. There is talk of the SU35s coming to PAF. While a great fan of these beasts I hesitate to venture an opinion on the feasibility of such an acquisition without actually denying the need. There are many aspects which make it an expensive and from certain angles an unwise move. Whether this union of convenience is strong enough to make and sustain the rigors of a platform sale remains to be seen.
The next generation plane. PAF had made it amply clear its interest in a couple of Chinese platforms which are 5th generation. Tests have taken place however there are technicalities which need resolving. Either case j31 will not see Pakistan as its new home till 2023-25. The finances of the project are also a headache as CATIC wants someone to invest in the project now and provide the money needed to complete and mature the project. PAF wants a risk free approach and wants Chinese Govtt/CATIC to invest in the project and once mature they will buy it off the shelf. PAF is also "looking" at other projects cor nothing else but to signal the Chinese that they are not the only providers of products and we have other options. Whether good or bad strategy needs to be seen.
So in short or not so short we have run out of options and have instead decided to go for the convenient choice in spite of major considerations and concerns. We are hoping to utilize our new found regional support to leverage US acquiescence in arms sale which remains a hard bridge to cross. We are also building enough spares to hopefully ride out any repeat of the 90s.
A
