Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

[The Terminator]

Wrath of Afghans!? You think that is what decides Pak policy? Pak Mil can keep a lot secret from the nation when it wants to. Anyway, I bow to your insider knowledge

Afghan Taliban to be precise. Don't forget that world's mightiest military machine with virtually endless resources at their disposal surrendered before them recently. If Pakistani soil is used against them then how would we be able to defend ourselves against ever increasing threats and already overstretched military budget.

 

[PakFactor]

Afghan Taliban to be precise. Don't forget that world's mightiest military machine with virtually endless resources at their disposal surrendered before them recently. If Pakistani soil is used against them then how would we be able to defend ourselves against ever increasing threats and already overstretched military budget.

I wouldn’t say surrender but more of a tactical pull back to counter China more than anything.

 

[The Terminator]

Everyone here is quick to criticise but not so good at providing alternatives.

What if Pakistan refuses? What then? Are people aware of the amount of shit that can befall us?

Forget spares for F-16s or any new missiles for them

Expect pressure on European suppliers like Germany and Italy to stop supplying us

Expect a ton of shit from IMF/WB/FATF

Expect a possible state sponsor of terrorism designation

Expect India to jump and host US Forces.


But sure. instead of thinking about these things lets just carry on and make stupid prostitution analogies....

We just did refuse. Lol

Now what happened? Sometimes it's better not to sell your soul for pathetic materialistic gains. Us has nothing significant to offer us anymore. Either sit in US lap against China, another rising global power next door or refuse US politely which is thousands miles away quickly loosing its influence, grip, hegemony or any kind of leverage globally

 

[The Terminator]

I wouldn’t say surrender but more of a tactical pull back to counter China more than anything.

Yeah but after loosing trillions of $, a few thousand soldiers, their repute of invincibility is blown up, loosing the status of one and only mightiest super power in the world. The world is quickly switching towards multipolar again and the cold War 2.0 officially already ensued. 2001 and 2021 there is a marked difference in global positioning.

 

[The Eagle]

Back to topic please

 

[The Terminator]

If we want release of F-16, access to retired/stored airframes or third country stock we will need to offer some kind of carrot to the US. These days, reportedly, US is looking for air bases close to Afghanistan to launch drone missions if need be.

Now if we do agree to it, than the questions is what would we ask in return and how to package the acceptance, domestically and what would be the blow back from across the border.

Not doing so would result in what kind of fall out an from whom?

The advantages are obvious, if negotiated from a position of strength, release of withheld CSF, release of F-16's, & AH 1Z's, License to export double the number of LHTEC T800-4A engines (On Frame and spare engines) Third country transfer of F-16's and access to EDA land weapons and air crafts (Difficult to negotiate the latest version of AMRAAM) This is the obvious windfall. How much the US agree to all this depends upon how hungry they are and how much pressure India can bear upon them to not to do so.

The blow back will in the shape of political point scoring by the usual suspects, religious right will make a hue and cry with obvious political tint, and likely hood of Af Talibs facilitating Pak Taliban for cross border raids into Pakistan. To some extent, the last point can be managed. Financial squeeze and FATF censure will be a factor played in game.

What if we don't give access. US will then use overflights to target AF Talibans ( we will indirectly be giving them access in way) and might face the same blow back as described in the previous paragraph. US might then promote a more active role to be played by India in Afghanistan if they don't get basing rights in Pakistan.

In all this, what would be the reaction of China? How will they view the use of an airbase by US?

The permutation and combinations are endless and there is no simple answer to all of this. In the end Pakistan has to weigh its decisions keeping in view its short term and log term goals in the region. But above all see the benefits of a uni polar or a bipolar approach to its regional strategy.

What kind of carrot do we possess would entice US to be friends with us again? Nothing short of betrayal against China would work. Bases against Afghanistan isn't worth that much. India has already offered a bigger carrot to them and joined the US-led quad. And you know India and Pakistan can never Co exist in a same block or group. And simply we can't out-carrot India here anyways.

You may deny it but the fact is economically and militarily Pakistan's future is tied with China. They have invested a lot and in turn bought a lot of influence over us.

A few dozen F-16s are not really worth it to loose a tried and tested ally like China. They are a hell lot more dependable than deceptive, rude US. See what happened with Turkey when it required to bolster its military even being a vital NATO member. So anymore F-16s would be more of a liability in the long term upon our already weak economic position. And yes J-10C would be the logical choice.

Yes F-16 is without a doubt great fighting machine but circumstances dictates otherwise for us.

We all love Hollywood, Western freedom, western chicks, their language, their technology and progress but I am afraid our bureaucratic and top military brass would have to find some alternative venues to spend their holidays or their retirement plans. Something more Asian or Eastern
So brush up your Russian and Chinese language skills too.

Pretty much how it'll be train and come with it.

I envision PAF being more streamlined, with Western Platform F-16 + Mirages & Eastern Platform J-10 + JF-17 Combo. In my view and from some I've spoken to said PAF access to Western Fighters will be down to 0. If we get F-16s its one thing but don't expect more than this, when our F-16 have reached their life span.

According to one PAF Officer who's a distant relative said, "Western priorities have changed, we will be approaching the end of the run way with them". Note: In terms of advanced fighter platforms.

Exactly
Mirage, F-16s, JF-17s and J-10C would be the perfect combination.

Maybe replace Mirages with J-10s later down the road

 

[The Terminator]

We cannot integrate anything on our F16s due to end user agreements. As to the JFT, their AESA will require Chinese permission and help. There will be other complexities as the Turkish might not allow the Chinese access to their source codes. If this was so easy believe me we would have integrated Amraams on JFT. Lastly we appear to be having an indegenous BVR missile in the pipeworks and should be integrated on to JFT. Ithink this would be a more worthwhile project than just buying from Turkey.
As to SOM missile I feel we have a longer ranged RAAD 2 which will be integrated on JFT. When there are local programmes we do not go and buy from outside.
My thoughts on the matter.
A

I have heard in interviews senior PAF officials claiming that JF-17 is capable of firing AMRAAM missiles too!

 

[The Terminator]

Can somebody tell here that How much did F-16 block 52+ costed us back then? Their flyaway cost?

 

[The Terminator]

I wouldnt be surprised if their is a small chance that the PAF acquires 18-36 F16vs as well and upgrades for the existing fleet, but that would really be dependant on how much IK can convince Biden of Pakistans importance.

Dont forget Biden was the key architect of the Military/Economic AID packages to the US during his time in the senate. He is very open and receptive to Pakistan interests. Right now the US is doing an impartial review of ties with Pakistan (Biden himself ordered this impartial view because he felt he would be bias pro-pakistan). I doubt the review being "impartial" would result in the same summary = US realizing it is best to accomadate Pakistan and compete against China to gain leverage rather than isolate Pakistan and give it up to China.

As of late we have seen the US pushing Pakistans interest when it comes to FATF, terrorism in Afghanistan, refugee spillover into Pakistan, denying the use of pakistani bases, etc...

In such situation I am hoping Pakistan puts its interest first and gets benefit from BOTH THE US & CHINA. Dont forget Pakistan served as a bridge for US-China ties which have resulted in the rise of China today. Pakistan can once again become a major mediator for both sides.

IK has never been good at negotiations. You need someone of Zardari's calibre to pull this off . Anyways 36 F-16Vs with all the latest bells and whistles would be a great boast in our force and capabilities which we may just dream of for now.

If Biden is that much sympathetic to Pakistan, he should have get our stuck AH-1Zs released at least.

 

[araz]

I have heard in interviews senior PAF officials claiming that JF-17 is capable of firing AMRAAM missiles too!

This is not official so do not know. I would not believe everything that is being said and safety is in denial.

Can somebody tell here that How much did F-16 block 52+ costed us back then? Their flyaway cost?

Tbe whole deal was 3.6 billion dollars with armaments. I am not certain whether it included the upgrade kits or not. Upgrade kits were 20 million a pop, and araments were 600 million if I remember.
A

 

[araz]

IK has never been good at negotiations. You need someone of Zardari's calibre to pull this off . Anyways 36 F-16Vs with all the latest bells and whistles would be a great boast in our force and capabilities which we may just dream of for now.

If Biden is that much sympathetic to Pakistan, he should have get our stuck AH-1Zs released at least.

It is not Zardari or Imran who negotiates these contracts. The relevant procurement team does so from PAF/Army. It is not a case for good /bad negotiations but an assessment of what is in our benefit and what pressure will be borne on us and can we resist it. China was not so strong in 2000s so we buckled under ( I still maintain we did so very easily and could have negotiated harder). However China backs us now for very tangible personal gains and Imran Khan is much better at resisting pressures than Musharraf was and the politico military partnership means a negotiated standpoint rather than one man show which is much better.
Biden or anyone else will not want to get us any relief till we give them 10 times back in return. This is the nature of the transactional relationship which US maintains with all of its allies. We are no exception. Even Israel is being pampered for a reason. We have just not understood the nature of this relationship and exploited it. The only time we did so was when Zia was in power and so he had to be done away with. One needs to ask the question of "What's in it for me and my country for every US demand and negotiate keeping that view in mind". None of the political leaders so far have been able to do so because of their personal gains for which they are blackmailed as well as come into power and allowed to loot even more and get secure heavens in the world to escape to.
A

 

[PakFactor]

Yeah but after loosing trillions of $, a few thousand soldiers, their repute of invincibility is blown up, loosing the status of one and only mightiest super power in the world. The world is quickly switching towards multipolar again and the cold War 2.0 officially already ensued. 2001 and 2021 there is a marked difference in global positioning.

True that. Global positioning is switching to multi polar as it should be.

 

[Windjammer]

 

[The Raven]

Given the fiasco in Afghanistan, the chances of new Vipers entering the PAF are quickly evaporating. The choice was between having a pro-Pakistan Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban (unacceptable to the US) at the cost of any more US equipment, or the potential of more Vipers, but with the current Afghan regime remaining in power, and the potential of the likes of india and Iran gaining influence on our Western border. The Pak military chose the former option. The only realistic chance is perhaps used examples from other users, but that's a very slim chance as well. It's increasingly likely the PAF's current Viper fleet will remain as it is until it is decommissioned. Hence why the increasing likelihood of the J-10CE entering.

Remember, back in the mid-2000s under Mushy, the PAF explicitly expressed strong likelihood of J-10, but then the Americans dangled the Viper carrot and that idea soon evaporated. With the chances of any more Vipers now evaporating, the J-10 is back in play again. All this speculation of any other alternative "western" platform is BS by some people on this forum to stoke their egos and drive the gullible folk crazy. The "new fighter for PAF thread" is a sad reflection and microcosm of Pakistani society and politics.

 

[ziaulislam]

PAF would, without a single doubt, instantly agree to buy Any F-16s it could. Because it makes a lot of logical sense to do that, they would be stupid to pass them up.
BUT, not if the conditions were so bad that they weren’t worth buying, PAF didn’t walk away from those Block 52+, it tried its hardest to get them, but the financing conditions weren’t to PAFs liking because US wanted Pakistan to pay in full. And add on top of that the stringent use conditions they were trying to put on those F-16s.

Right now PAF has more funds, if F-16s were on the cards without those stringent use conditions, PAF would surely take them, Wether it was 8 F-16s or 80. But J-10C would come anyways because PAF knows any F-16 sale would be small, but now there is no sale. So it doesn’t change much.

Sure PAF doesn’t inherently need F-16s anymore, but people have to realize PAF doesn’t have just so many open options that not getting more F-16s isn’t a drawback. It’s a major major drawback, because PAF has extremely limited realistic options. J-10C is currently the only single one.

So basically PAF wanted USA to foot the bill
Pakistan were told to pay full
We would have literally jumped with joy if we were told to pay full for f16 in 1990-2010

But time has changee back then china only had j6/7 to offer

Now we have jf17/j10