Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions

[Kompromat]

Jiyala at work ?

 

[khanbhai1]

Gallup 2012 Wellbeing survey reports that 20% of Pakistanis say they are "thriving", down from 32% last year. However, the report shows that more of them are still better off than their neighbors in Bangladesh (16% thriving) and India (11% thriving). The number of those "thriving" increased in Bangladesh by 3% and declined in India by 6%.

Haq's Musings: Pakistanis Rank Above Neighbors on Gallup Wellbeing Index 2012

The fact that the number of Pakistanis who consider themselves thriving is down from 1 in 3 last year to 1 in 5 now is understandable because of many serious and worsening crises Pakistan is facing today. The real question is who are these 20%? And why do they say they are thriving?

To explain the significance of the 20% who say they are thriving, you have to understand how democracy and electoral politics work in Pakistan and many other democracies.

The voter turnout in 2008 elections in Pakistan was just 44%. The PPP got 30% of the votes cast making up only about 13% of the registered voters to emerge as the single largest party. PML (N) received about 20% of the votes or approval of just 9% of the registered voters to finish in second place.

The ruling politicians operate a vast system of political patronage that allocates state's resources and formulates policies to satisfy their base.To win the next election, the PPP needs just 13% of the vote in the next election to stay in power. To maintain its base in rural Sind and southern Punjab, the PPP has done the following to keep it loyal:

1. Raised crop prices significantly to ensure a yearly transfer of over Rs. 300 billion income from cities which benefits the landed class and the rural folks who support the PPP.

2. Allocated the lion's share of development funds in Larkana & Multan and given contracts to their cronies to build roads, airports, etc.

3. Given billions of rupees in aid for Benazir Income Support Program most of which goes to those favored by PPP politicians.

4. Give lots of state jobs to its cronies to plunder the state's resources.

The PML(N), the ruling party in Punjab province, is engaging in similar acts of patronage of its base to maintain their loyalty and vote bank in the next election.

Imran Khan is the new kid on the block. He may take some of PML (N)'s votes. He is no threat to the PPP or its ANP and MQM allies.

So barring any serious military intervention or ISI manipulation of elections, the Pakistani parliament is likely to remain basically unchanged after the next election.


Haq's Musings: Haq's Crystal Ball: A Look at Pak Elections 2013



Such polls do not take into account the constituency level electoral math in various regions that make up different parties vote banks.

PPP is still popular with its base in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab but with reduced margin as seen in recent NA-151 results.

your analysis is embarrassingly flawed and unintentionally hilarious. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having to read your post.
if 20% of Pakistanis think they are thriving, that does not mean they are happy with current the situation in Pakistan. According to PEW, " nearly nine-in-ten (87%) are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country, while just 12% are satisfied." I have many rich family members and friends in Pakistan, but being rich does not necessarily means that you are satisfied with PPP's performing over past four years. In the same Gallup poll you cited, you conveniently ignored that 65% of Pakistanis are under the "Struggling Category" and 16% are "Suffering". In a democracy, how in the world you think PPP will be back in power. According to PEW, Zardari popularity has gone down to 14%, it was 64% in 2008.
2008 elections are history and are in no way a legitimate precursor for 2013 elections.
First of all, nearly half of votes in 08 were termed as bogus by the ECL and NADRA
Voter fraud: 65% of votes in Balochistan were bogus – The Express Tribune
And since this fraud was identified by ECL, you can simply cut the voter turnout to 22% instead of 44%.
ECL has been trying to fix this problem and if the elections of 2013 are free and fair, then there is no way PPP will be back in power.
There is no way the voter turnout will be just 22% this time around. The low turnout of 2008 was due to a dictator being power and a puppet judiciary (CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry was not reinstated). In2013 elections, even if the turnout is 50%, there is no way PPP will be power.

 

[RiazHaq]

Jiyala at work ?

Analyzing and predicting results does not constitute support for any parties in Pakistan. If you see the entire video below, you'll understand that better:

 

[RiazHaq]

According to PEW, " nearly nine-in-ten (87%) are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country, while just 12% are satisfied." I have many rich family members and friends in Pakistan, but being rich does not necessarily means that you are satisfied with PPP's performing over past four years.
----
There is no way the voter turnout will be just 22% this time around. The low turnout of 2008 was due to a dictator being power and a puppet judiciary (CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry was not reinstated). In2013 elections, even if the turnout is 50%, there is no way PPP will be power.

The 2012 Gallup poll shows 23% of respondents are "confident in national govt"....far more than the 13% of the votes (30% of the 44% votes cast) the PPP got in 2008 to emerge as the largest single party with 98 general seats directly elected.

Gallup.Com World News - Worldwide Leadership, Economic, Well-Being, Behavioral Economic Data

The turn-out in recent NA-151 election won by Abdul Qader Gilani was just 45%....just 1 point better than the national avg in 2008.

Haq's Musings: Pakistanis Rank Above Neighbors on Gallup Wellbeing Index 2012

 

[yyetttt]

RiazHaq is PPP agent....

 

[truthseer]

RiazHaq is PPP agent....

No, he never supports PPP usually. He's more a self serving agent, in this case

 

[Shoaib Rathore]

ppp wont stand any chance in this election! they will get a humiliated defeat like Q League got in 2008 even their performance was much better than of present govt. It will be PML-N,PTI and Jimmat e Islami who will make the federal and provincial govt.

 

[Baby Leone]

PTI will sweep out PPP seats from Southern Punjab and significantly hurt N league elsewhere in Punjab too.

There will be a close match between ANP, PTI and DPC in KPK

And hopefully PTI would sweep through Balochistan.


Sindh would definitely go to PPP and if PTI can get a few seats here n there that would be bonus.

With some allies I hope PTI would be able to establish the next government.

and who would be tht some allies of PTI? as IK seems against every single party than? and guys wht abt Musharraf Marty i wish PTI & Musharraf join hands will be great for Pakistan....

 

[Pakistanisage]

Political parties and pundits are catching the election fever as the current PPP-led coalition government in Pakistan is nearing the end of its term in February 2013.

Campaign rallies are being held across the country by major political parties including Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q), Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulama Islam (JUI) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and others like Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC), etc.

Overseas Pakistanis are getting into the spirit of elections as well. A WBT TV show called Viewpoint From Overseas recently interviewed me on the subject and asked for my analysis and predictions of winners and losers in 2013. Here's a summary of how I see the outcome of the upcoming elections in Pakistan:

1. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 90 or slightly fewer seats of the 272 general seats up for direct elections in 2013.

2. Pakistan Muslim League (N) would be competing with Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) for the second spot.

3. PPP is most likely to form the next coalition government with smaller parties like PML (Q), MQM and ANP.

4. PPP will essentially retain its vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab while MQM and ANP will carry urban Sindh and KP province respectively.

5. PML (N) will have real struggle getting overall majority in Punjab province.

6. There will be little change in Balochistan given the fact that the nationalists and insurgents are not ready to talk peace and participate in elections.

For detailed analysis, please watch this video:

Haq's Musings: Haq's Crystal Ball: A Look at Pak Elections 2013

Excellent political analysis and commentary by Riaz Haq Sahib. Really enjoyed your interview and presentation, Sir.

God Bless.

 

[RiazHaq]

The main beneficiary of the escalating conflict between PTI and PM (N) will be the PPP, virtually guaranteeing PPP's return to power with its ANP, MQM and Q League partners.

Haq's Musings: Haq's Crystal Ball: A Look at Pak Elections 2013

 

[AstanoshKhan]

I think Ghulam Akbar Saab indorsed my point of view over Riaz Haq Saab's analysis.

 

[Emmie]

@RiazHaq - I really admire your analysis on issues, but the one you made in the clip you shared lately is flawed.

According to you - PPP by increasing the prices of crop relieved the farmers indirectly, especially ones in rural areas of Sindh and southern Punjab. And since PPP enjoys its support of rural population in mentioned areas so this move by the PPP led government would maintain the supporting spirit among mass.

Sir, if you meant a Zamindar or Wadera by the term farmer then you're absolutely right but if you meant an ordinary worker (hari or kisan) then I am afraid you're terribly wrong. I hope you must be knowing agriculture in Sindh, people there own thousands of acres it is quite unlikely that you come across an individual who owns land more than 50 acres. The way Waderas treat their farmers/kisan is well established, these workers most of the times are found paying off the debt. Comparatively smaller Zamaindars face intrigues, water to their land is being theft with the help of irrigation department.

This so called relief serves Zamindars better than ordinary Kisans, latter class is still in the condition that they were in before, their lament is same "Aata mehnga"

If PPP policy makers still believe this move would boost their support then seriously PPP needs to replace them with professional ones.

P.S: Impact of the policy is a different debate altogether.

 

[batmannow]

with out any disrespect, for PMLn & PTI!
aik tha teetar ,aik batair
larney meain thy donnu sher
lartey lartey, hoo gayi gum,
aik ki chonch , aik ki dum?

they keep fighting, & fighting, & repeat of NA151, is our future?

 

[RiazHaq]

@RiazHaq - I really admire your analysis on issues, but the one you made in the clip you shared lately is flawed.

According to you - PPP by increasing the prices of crop relieved the farmers indirectly, especially ones in rural areas of Sindh and southern Punjab. And since PPP enjoys its support of rural population in mentioned areas so this move by the PPP led government would maintain the supporting spirit among mass.

Sir, if you meant a Zamindar or Wadera by the term farmer then you're absolutely right but if you meant an ordinary worker (hari or kisan) then I am afraid you're terribly wrong. I hope you must be knowing agriculture in Sindh, people there own thousands of acres it is quite unlikely that you come across an individual who owns land more than 50 acres. The way Waderas treat their farmers/kisan is well established, these workers most of the times are found paying off the debt. Comparatively smaller Zamaindars face intrigues, water to their land is being theft with the help of irrigation department.

This so called relief serves Zamindars better than ordinary Kisans, latter class is still in the condition that they were in before, their lament is same "Aata mehnga"

If PPP policy makers still believe this move would boost their support then seriously PPP needs to replace them with professional ones.

P.S: Impact of the policy is a different debate altogether.

I agree that the big landowners who are part of the PPP leadership have benefited more but there has been a measurable trickle down effect on disposable incomes of small farmers as well as seen in rising consumption.

Here are a few key points excerpted from a recent Businessweek story on rise of the rural consumer in Pakistan:

1. Unilever and Colgate-Palmolive Co. are sending salespeople into rural areas of the world’s sixth most-populous nation, where demand for consumer goods such as Sunsilk shampoo, Pond’s moisturizers and Colgate toothpaste has boosted local units’ revenue at least 15 percent.

2. “The rural push is aimed at the boisterous youth in these areas, who have bountiful cash and resources to increase purchases,” Shazia Syed, vice president for customer development at Unilever Pakistan Ltd., said in an interview. “Rural growth is more than double that of national sales.”

3. Consumer-goods companies forecast growth in Pakistan even as an increase in ethnic violence in Karachi has made 2011 the deadliest in 16 years for the country’s biggest city and financial center.

4. Nestle Pakistan Ltd. is spending 300 million Swiss francs ($326 million) to double dairy output in four years, boosted sales 29 percent to 33 billion rupees ($378 million) in the six months through June. “We have been focusing on rural areas very strongly,” Ian Donald, managing director of Nestle’s Pakistan unit, said in an interview in Lahore. “Our observation is that Pakistan’s rural economy is doing better than urban areas.”

5. Haji Mirbar, who grows cotton on a 5-acre farm with his four brothers, said his family’s income grew fivefold in the year through June, allowing him to buy branded products. He uses Unilever’s Lifebuoy for his open-air baths under a hand pump, instead of the handmade soap he used before. “We had a great year because of cotton prices,” said Mirbar, 28, who lives in a village outside south Pakistan’s Matiari town. “As our income has risen, we want to buy nice things and live like kings.”

6. Sales for the Pakistan unit of Unilever rose 15 percent to 24.8 billion rupees in the first half. Colgate-Palmolive Pakistan Ltd.’s sales increased 29 percent in the six months through June to 7.6 billion rupees, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “In a generally faltering economy, the double-digit growth in revenue for companies servicing the consumer sector has come almost entirely from the rural areas,” said Sakib Sherani, chief executive officer at Macroeconomic Insights Pvt. in Islamabad and a former economic adviser to Pakistan’s finance ministry.

7. Unilever is pushing beauty products in the countryside through a program called “Guddi Baji,” an Urdu phrase that literally means “doll sister.” It employs “beauty specialists who understand rural women,” providing them with vans filled with samples and equipment, Syed said. Women in villages are also employed as sales representatives, because “rural is the growth engine” for Unilever in Pakistan, she said in an interview in Karachi. While the bulk of spending for rural families goes to food, about 20 percent “is spent on looking beautiful and buying expensive clothes,” Syed said.

8. Colgate-Palmolive, the world’s largest toothpaste maker, aims to address a “huge gap” in sales outside Pakistan’s cities by more than tripling the number of villages where its products, such as Palmolive soap, are sold, from the current 5,000, said Syed Wasif Ali, rural operations manager at the local unit.

9. Its detergents Bonus Tristar and Brite are packed in sachets of 20 grams or less and priced as low as five rupees (6 cents), to boost sales among low-income consumers hurt by the fastest pace of inflation in Asia after Vietnam. Unilever plans to increase the number of villages where its products are sold to almost half of the total 34,000 within three years. Its merchandise, including Dove shampoo, Surf detergent and Brooke Bond Supreme tea, is available in about 11,000 villages now.

10. Pakistan, Asia’s third-largest wheat grower, in 2008 increased wheat prices by more than 50 percent as Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani sought to boost production of the staple.“The injection of purchasing power in the rural sector has been unprecedented,” said Sherani, who added that local prices for rice and sugarcane have also risen.

11. Telenor Pakistan Pvt. is also expanding in Pakistan’s rural areas, which already contribute 60 percent of sales, said Anjum Nida Rahman, corporate communications director for the local unit of the Nordic region’s largest phone company.

Haq's Musings: FMCG Companies Profit From Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan

 

[masoomchichora]

is dafa to ganja hi jeetay ga