Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions

[Emmie]

PPP does not rule Punjab where the election was held. PML (N) does. The police and bureaucracy in Multan report to Shahbaz Sharif.

Clearly you didn't reach to what I entailed, it wasn't about rigging.

 

[WAQAS119]

What is the sanity near you?

Ground reality is that the PPP voters are as determined as before to get PPP reelected.

 

[RiazHaq]

Clearly you didn't reach to what I entailed, it wasn't about rigging.

If you are talking about doling out state resources, then Punjab govt has a lot of resources at its disposal as the largest province with abut 60% of the population. Sharifs also engage in politics of patronage just as Zardari does.

Haq's Musings: Political Patronage Trumps Public Policy in Pakistan

 

[Emmie]

If you are talking about doling out state resources, then Punjab govt has a lot of resources at its disposal as the largest province with abut 60% of the population. Sharifs also engage in politics of patronage just as Zardari does.

Haq's Musings: Political Patronage Trumps Public Policy in Pakistan

Doling out state/province resources to get advantage in election is yet another form of rigging. I was bearing on people who have interests more federation oriented.Time serving contingents at low level can be convinced for something , its not that hard to achieve in your own constituency and that too of NA. Not necessarily everyone is happy working with PMLN, especially with Shahbaz.

Moreover NA-151 mainly consists of rural area therefore the point you made earlier PTI being an urban legend bear no ground assuming PTI backed Boson. Losing 21000 votes in a constituency comprises mainly of rural areas appears no joke to me.

Ground reality is that the PPP voters are as determined as before to get PPP reelected.

I would like to remind you the elections of 1997! Another factor that you can't omit is that there's no BB.

 

[khanbhai1]

What NA-151 tells us is that Abdul Qadir Gilani beat the combined opposition candidate Shaukat Hayat Bosan (brother of PTI leader Sikandar Hayat Bosan) who was fully supported by PML (N), PTI, JI and others.

there is not such thing as a combined opposition candidate. I dont find that concept appealing, I bet neither does the constituency of NA-151. By-elections always get lower turnouts anywhere in the world, be it United States or Pakistan. Just like in the case of MQM, PTI followers will vote for the party, not the candidate.

The fact that Gilani won by just 4000 votes rather than the 24000 vote margin his father enjoyed in 2008 shows that PPP has lost some popularity but it is still more popular than all of its opponents combined.

this is an absurd statement. How is winning by 4000 votes than 24000 votes means PPP lost a little popularity. Especially considering that this should be PPP's strong hold and PTI or PMLN didn't even take part in the elections

It shows that if PTI continues to fight with PML (N), both will lose big to the PPP.

actually what this shows is totally the opposite. If PTI and PMLN combine forces like you claim they did in this by election, than they will lose, because it confuses people.

What urban middle class analysts and commentators

and some how a person like you who is living aboard has more knowledge about the ground realities than the urban middle class in Pakistan. And considering you are not part of the middle class, are you getting money from PPP??

miss is the fact that the PPP has delivered extra Rs. 200 billion a year in rural income by raising food prices in 2008. This rural farm income has brought unprecedented prosperity to the PPP vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab.

how much of that 200 billion go to the feudal lords in these rural areas? I would guess a big chuck.voting for PPP means turning a blind eye on the law and order situation, and not to forget the floods of 2010 and how it effected the poor farmers when the greedy feudals turned the water on them in order to save their crops

 

[truthseer]

By the way, Riaz, you miss two points of the recent election

1. He was elected by such low votes in HIS own Town. That's not very encouraging

2. The candidate opposing him was not officially endorsed by anyone. You're overestimating how many TV's people have in Pakistan

 

[Icewolf]

PTI will win in Punjab, KP... Not much people vote in Balochistan to even make a difference but PTI will have hard time getting votes in Sindh

 

[truthseer]

PTI will win in Punjab, KP... Not much people vote in Balochistan to even make a difference but PTI will have hard time getting votes in Sindh

I don't believe that's true. SMQ can win one of the seats with ease and I believe PTI have a chance in Karachi to get a few seats too

 

[Thor]

I do not think the PPP will go for election in 2013. This is all part of a bigger plan of both PPP and PML-N and all other groups currently within the Parliament.

They all now see PTI as a threat and as suggest in the past, they will dissolve Parliament and go for a caretaker government. That way the PML-N can go for a bigger share within the Punjab Assembly and make a deal with PPP that they will support a caretaker setup if Punjab is left to them.

A caretaker government can go for a maximum 3 years especially with the WoT going on.

Obviously this will be challenged by the PTI in the supreme court who can null and void any caretaker setup, however it will all then depend on whether election commission which is a stooge of the government follows the order of the Supreme Court and orders elections...............

 

[Kompromat]

Mr Riaz. Did you go through this ? http://www.defence.pk/forums/nation...6-opinion-poll-pakistan-elections-2013-a.html

 

[RiazHaq]

Gallup 2012 Wellbeing survey reports that 20% of Pakistanis say they are "thriving", down from 32% last year. However, the report shows that more of them are still better off than their neighbors in Bangladesh (16% thriving) and India (11% thriving). The number of those "thriving" increased in Bangladesh by 3% and declined in India by 6%.

Haq's Musings: Pakistanis Rank Above Neighbors on Gallup Wellbeing Index 2012

The fact that the number of Pakistanis who consider themselves thriving is down from 1 in 3 last year to 1 in 5 now is understandable because of many serious and worsening crises Pakistan is facing today. The real question is who are these 20%? And why do they say they are thriving?

To explain the significance of the 20% who say they are thriving, you have to understand how democracy and electoral politics work in Pakistan and many other democracies.

The voter turnout in 2008 elections in Pakistan was just 44%. The PPP got 30% of the votes cast making up only about 13% of the registered voters to emerge as the single largest party. PML (N) received about 20% of the votes or approval of just 9% of the registered voters to finish in second place.

The ruling politicians operate a vast system of political patronage that allocates state's resources and formulates policies to satisfy their base.To win the next election, the PPP needs just 13% of the vote in the next election to stay in power. To maintain its base in rural Sind and southern Punjab, the PPP has done the following to keep it loyal:

1. Raised crop prices significantly to ensure a yearly transfer of over Rs. 300 billion income from cities which benefits the landed class and the rural folks who support the PPP.

2. Allocated the lion's share of development funds in Larkana & Multan and given contracts to their cronies to build roads, airports, etc.

3. Given billions of rupees in aid for Benazir Income Support Program most of which goes to those favored by PPP politicians.

4. Give lots of state jobs to its cronies to plunder the state's resources.

The PML(N), the ruling party in Punjab province, is engaging in similar acts of patronage of its base to maintain their loyalty and vote bank in the next election.

Imran Khan is the new kid on the block. He may take some of PML (N)'s votes. He is no threat to the PPP or its ANP and MQM allies.

So barring any serious military intervention or ISI manipulation of elections, the Pakistani parliament is likely to remain basically unchanged after the next election.


Haq's Musings: Haq's Crystal Ball: A Look at Pak Elections 2013

Mr Riaz. Did you go through this ? http://www.defence.pk/forums/nation...6-opinion-poll-pakistan-elections-2013-a.html

Such polls do not take into account the constituency level electoral math in various regions that make up different parties vote banks.

PPP is still popular with its base in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab but with reduced margin as seen in recent NA-151 results.

 

[RiazHaq]

voting for PTI is voting PPP back in office, so good luck with it

so lets start celebrating pakistan demise already, i give it 3 more years

I'm more optimistic about the future.

With increasing urbanization, the PPP base is eroding and the urban middle class is growing.
This trend will hurt the PPP and favor urban middle class parties like Imran Khan's PTI in the long term. We should see significant shift in leadership from rural to urban in the next couple of decades.

Haq's Musings: Urbanization in Pakistan Highest in South Asia

 

[Erhabi]

agar PPP dubara elect hui to i am wid TTP...suicide bombing kar kar k aisi begairat awam ko mardo

 

[batmannow]

Thanks to Gen.(R) Ahmad Shujah Pasha (Maker of PTI)

you should keep thanking other genrls too?
gen,(shaheed) zia-ul-haq, for PMLn & MQM?
gen,(daddy) ayub khan for PPP, plz be fair in your judgments?

agar PPP dubara elect hui to i am wid TTP...suicide bombing kar kar k aisi begairat awam ko mardo

woo tu saab se barey begherat khud hain, joo army sey lar rehain hain, un ki wajey sey army in ppp walon ko, kick nahi mar sakti?

I'm more optimistic about the future.

With increasing urbanization, the PPP base is eroding and the urban middle class is growing.
This trend will hurt the PPP and favor urban middle class parties like Imran Khan's PTI in the long term. We should see significant shift in leadership from rural to urban in the next couple of decades.

Haq's Musings: Urbanization in Pakistan Highest in South Asia

but given so-called , few more decades , we will hve no pakistan?

 

[RiazHaq]

but given so-called , few more decades , we will hve no pakistan?

Nonsense! Pakistan is too big and too resilient to fail.

I fully expect Pakistan to survive the current crises, and then begin to thrive again in the near future.

Haq's Musings: Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers