get straight
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and how PMLQ entered in the arena as the largest party after it got separated from PMLN??
Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions
- Thread starter RiazHaq
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and how PMLQ entered in the arena as the largest party after it got separated from PMLN??
I think Ghulam Akbar Saab indorsed my point of view over Riaz Haq Saab's analysis.
1. I agree that it'll come down to PPP vs anti-PPP in 2013 as it has been since 1970s.
2. PML (N) is much better organized nationally than PTI. It will probably lose some of its vote bank mainly in central and northern Punjab to PTI.
3. PTI needs to go beyond slogans and rallies and really get organized as a serious party at the grass-roots level to turn out its urban middle class votes, particularly youth vote, to really matter in the next parliament.
4. Even if PTI were to take all of N league's vote, which is highly unlikely, it would still be far behind the PPP in the number of seats in NA.
Here's an Express Tribune report on Aitazaz Ahsan criticizing Pakistan Supreme Court judges in an interview with BBC:
Senior Pakistan Peoples Party leader Senator Aitzaz Ahsan has said that, in some matters, the judiciary is stepping out of the domain of the constitution and is getting ‘too independent.’
In an interview with the BBC Urdu on Tuesday, he said that the Supreme Court’s activism is one sided and not equal for all aspects.
“Judiciary is independent, it is too much independent, actually it is getting ‘free’ of the constitution in some matters,” stated Aitizaz.
Pointing towards the supremacy of the Parliament, he said that the parliament can make amendments in the Constitution with a two-third majority, and this cannot be challenged in court.
Commenting on the role of Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, Ahsan said that the fromer’s gallant role against former president General (r) Pervez Musharraf had served to strengthen the democratic setup in the country, but subsequent actions had prompted people to question the judiciary.
Some judgements passed by the Supreme Court recently eliminated any possibility of the country returning to martial law and, therefore, there is no chance of the military taking over in the future, Ahsan noted.
On former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s disqualification by the SC, the Barrister said that he believed dismissing Gilani was a wrong decision, adding that the case was not a matter of disqualification, rather it was an issue related to the jurisdiction of the judiciary.
He questioned that how could the court ask to open a case against the President in a foreign court while the Constitution clearly granted him immunity?
Ahsan said that the stance taken by the Chief Justice in a speech that the judiciary can stop the Parliament from a Constitutional amendment clashes with the Supreme Court’s own decisions. He added that the apex court can review the amendments made through simple majority for any discrepancy within existing articles of the constitution, however, an amendments passed with a two-third majority cannot be challenged in the court.
Talking about the controversial Arsalan Iftikhar case, he said that the proceedings against the CJ’s son had raised questions about the court’s impartiality. He said that the present the judiciary is diverting from the prevailing principles of investigation into Arsalan’s alleged dealings with Malik Riaz Hussain.
On his movement for the restoration of judges, Ahsan said he had no regrets and that it was a movement for the victory of the people.
PPP to win next elections
Speaking on the upcoming general elections, the Barrister said that the PPP would not only win but also be able to form a government since President Asif Ali Zardari has now the experience of forming a hung parliament.
‘Supreme Court gets too ‘free’, steps out of constitutional domain’: Aitzaz – The Express Tribune
Senior Pakistan Peoples Party leader Senator Aitzaz Ahsan has said that, in some matters, the judiciary is stepping out of the domain of the constitution and is getting ‘too independent.’
In an interview with the BBC Urdu on Tuesday, he said that the Supreme Court’s activism is one sided and not equal for all aspects.
“Judiciary is independent, it is too much independent, actually it is getting ‘free’ of the constitution in some matters,” stated Aitizaz.
Pointing towards the supremacy of the Parliament, he said that the parliament can make amendments in the Constitution with a two-third majority, and this cannot be challenged in court.
Commenting on the role of Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, Ahsan said that the fromer’s gallant role against former president General (r) Pervez Musharraf had served to strengthen the democratic setup in the country, but subsequent actions had prompted people to question the judiciary.
Some judgements passed by the Supreme Court recently eliminated any possibility of the country returning to martial law and, therefore, there is no chance of the military taking over in the future, Ahsan noted.
On former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s disqualification by the SC, the Barrister said that he believed dismissing Gilani was a wrong decision, adding that the case was not a matter of disqualification, rather it was an issue related to the jurisdiction of the judiciary.
He questioned that how could the court ask to open a case against the President in a foreign court while the Constitution clearly granted him immunity?
Ahsan said that the stance taken by the Chief Justice in a speech that the judiciary can stop the Parliament from a Constitutional amendment clashes with the Supreme Court’s own decisions. He added that the apex court can review the amendments made through simple majority for any discrepancy within existing articles of the constitution, however, an amendments passed with a two-third majority cannot be challenged in the court.
Talking about the controversial Arsalan Iftikhar case, he said that the proceedings against the CJ’s son had raised questions about the court’s impartiality. He said that the present the judiciary is diverting from the prevailing principles of investigation into Arsalan’s alleged dealings with Malik Riaz Hussain.
On his movement for the restoration of judges, Ahsan said he had no regrets and that it was a movement for the victory of the people.
PPP to win next elections
Speaking on the upcoming general elections, the Barrister said that the PPP would not only win but also be able to form a government since President Asif Ali Zardari has now the experience of forming a hung parliament.
‘Supreme Court gets too ‘free’, steps out of constitutional domain’: Aitzaz – The Express Tribune
i dont even understand why we are debating whether 20% of the country has confidence in the government. Again, why should I ignore the other 80% of Pakistanis. In a democracy, one person equals one vote. Let me make it simple for you, if the elections are free and fair then PPP will lose, cuz how in the hell 20% of population will decide the fate of government in a democracy.
Gallup poll
Confident in their national government?
Pakistan 23%
Afghanistan 45%
Iraq 34%
India 60%
Bangladesh 66%
things are not looking good for your PPP
even two governments in a middle of war fared better than PPP. 20% thriving doesn't mean anything. To me, the real question is whether they are confident in their government, which shows how optimistic they are about the future. I can safely say that people in India and Bangladesh are more optimistic as compared to Pakistanis.
I refuse to believe the turnout in Pakistan is anywhere close to 44%. Especially, considering that only 18% percent of Pakistanis believe in the honestly of elections
Gallup.Com World News - Worldwide Leadership, Economic, Well-Being, Behavioral Economic Data
When asked the same question, this is how it fared in other countries.
Afganistan 22%
Bangladesh 59%
India 60%
Iraq 27%
When people in Iraq and Afghanistan show more confidence in their electoral system than Pakistanis. This tells me three things.
1. Overwhelming majority of Pakistanis do not believe in the validity of elections held under the PPP government.
2. No way the turn out in Pakistan is close to 40%, when only 18% express confidence in the electoral system.
3. you analysis is BS.
Khanbhai,
I think you are having serious trouble with simple electoral math in a parliamentary democracy. So let me put it in perspective for you:
The voter turnout in 2008 elections in Pakistan was just 44%. The PPP got 30% of the votes cast making up only about 13% of the registered voters to emerge as the single largest party with 89 of 272 directly elected seats. PML (N) received about 20% of the votes or approval of just 9% of the registered voters to finish in second place with 66 seats.
Here's an AP story on TTP threatening to assassinate PTI chief Imran Khan:
The Taliban have threatened to kill a Pakistani cricket star turned politician if he holds a planned march to their tribal stronghold along the Afghan border to protest U.S. drone attacks.
Although the Pakistani Taliban also oppose the strikes, which have killed many of their fighters, spokesman Ahsanullah Ahsan said they would target Imran Khan because he calls himself a ‘‘liberal’’ — a term they associate with a lack of religious belief. He also warned they would attack anyone who participates in upcoming elections.
‘‘If he comes, our suicide bombers will target him,’’ Ahsan told The Associated Press in an interview Monday in the militant group’s stronghold of South Waziristan. ‘‘We will kill him.’’
The threat could come as a surprise to many in Pakistan who have criticized Khan for not being tough enough on the Pakistani Taliban and instead focusing most of his criticism on the government’s alliance with the U.S.
Some of his critics have nicknamed him ‘‘Taliban Khan’’ because of his views and his cozy ties with conservative Islamists who could help him attract right-wing voters in national elections likely to be held later this year or early next year.
Khan, who is the founder of the Pakistan Movement for Justice party, has gained momentum over the last year after more than a decade in politics. He is perhaps the most famous person in Pakistan because he led the country’s cricket team to victory in the 1992 World Cup.
Khan was once known for his playboy lifestyle and marriage to British socialite Jemima Khan. But they divorced several years ago, and he has since become much more conservative and religious. Khan has described himself as a liberal in various TV interviews, but he has also made clear that he is a practicing Muslim.
Ahsan, the Taliban spokesman, seemed to ignore that distinction and said the militants didn’t want Khan’s help in opposing drone attacks. Khan has said he is planning to lead thousands of people in a march to Waziristan in September to demonstrate against the strikes.
‘‘We will not accept help or sympathy from any infidel,’’ said Ahsan, referring to Khan. ‘‘We can fight on our own with the help of God,’’ he said, as drones buzzed overhead.
The spokesman for Khan’s party could not be immediately reached for comment.
Ahsan said the Taliban consider anyone who participates in elections, even Islamist parties, as infidels and will target them.
‘‘The election process is part of a secular system,’’ said Ahsan. ‘‘We want an Islamic system and will create hurdles to secularism.’’
An AP reporter interviewed Ahsan at a remote compound on a forested mountainside in South Waziristan. He was taken there from a compound in the Shawal area that housed several dozen Taliban fighters armed with AK-47s, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and anti-aircraft guns. Artillery fired by the Pakistani army regularly pounded the ground near the compound.
The military launched a major offensive against the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan in 2009 and has claimed to have largely cleared the area. But the militants regularly launch attacks, and the interview held with the AP indicated they move relatively freely.
Ahsan arrived for the interview in a pick-up truck with two other Taliban commanders. He was wearing a white shalwar kameez — the loose-fitting shirt and pants common in Pakistan and Afghanistan — and a woolen Chitrali cap. He spoke with an assault rifle laid across his lap, and he and the other commanders fired into the air in celebration at the end of the interview.
Taliban threaten to kill Pakistani cricket star - News - Boston.com
The Taliban have threatened to kill a Pakistani cricket star turned politician if he holds a planned march to their tribal stronghold along the Afghan border to protest U.S. drone attacks.
Although the Pakistani Taliban also oppose the strikes, which have killed many of their fighters, spokesman Ahsanullah Ahsan said they would target Imran Khan because he calls himself a ‘‘liberal’’ — a term they associate with a lack of religious belief. He also warned they would attack anyone who participates in upcoming elections.
‘‘If he comes, our suicide bombers will target him,’’ Ahsan told The Associated Press in an interview Monday in the militant group’s stronghold of South Waziristan. ‘‘We will kill him.’’
The threat could come as a surprise to many in Pakistan who have criticized Khan for not being tough enough on the Pakistani Taliban and instead focusing most of his criticism on the government’s alliance with the U.S.
Some of his critics have nicknamed him ‘‘Taliban Khan’’ because of his views and his cozy ties with conservative Islamists who could help him attract right-wing voters in national elections likely to be held later this year or early next year.
Khan, who is the founder of the Pakistan Movement for Justice party, has gained momentum over the last year after more than a decade in politics. He is perhaps the most famous person in Pakistan because he led the country’s cricket team to victory in the 1992 World Cup.
Khan was once known for his playboy lifestyle and marriage to British socialite Jemima Khan. But they divorced several years ago, and he has since become much more conservative and religious. Khan has described himself as a liberal in various TV interviews, but he has also made clear that he is a practicing Muslim.
Ahsan, the Taliban spokesman, seemed to ignore that distinction and said the militants didn’t want Khan’s help in opposing drone attacks. Khan has said he is planning to lead thousands of people in a march to Waziristan in September to demonstrate against the strikes.
‘‘We will not accept help or sympathy from any infidel,’’ said Ahsan, referring to Khan. ‘‘We can fight on our own with the help of God,’’ he said, as drones buzzed overhead.
The spokesman for Khan’s party could not be immediately reached for comment.
Ahsan said the Taliban consider anyone who participates in elections, even Islamist parties, as infidels and will target them.
‘‘The election process is part of a secular system,’’ said Ahsan. ‘‘We want an Islamic system and will create hurdles to secularism.’’
An AP reporter interviewed Ahsan at a remote compound on a forested mountainside in South Waziristan. He was taken there from a compound in the Shawal area that housed several dozen Taliban fighters armed with AK-47s, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and anti-aircraft guns. Artillery fired by the Pakistani army regularly pounded the ground near the compound.
The military launched a major offensive against the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan in 2009 and has claimed to have largely cleared the area. But the militants regularly launch attacks, and the interview held with the AP indicated they move relatively freely.
Ahsan arrived for the interview in a pick-up truck with two other Taliban commanders. He was wearing a white shalwar kameez — the loose-fitting shirt and pants common in Pakistan and Afghanistan — and a woolen Chitrali cap. He spoke with an assault rifle laid across his lap, and he and the other commanders fired into the air in celebration at the end of the interview.
Taliban threaten to kill Pakistani cricket star - News - Boston.com
batmannow
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with the help of LONG STRONG FUJI BOOT, which PMLn & PTI dont hve it till now?
whts your intell is telling you?
TTP knows , this statment will put him in good books of US?
I think the US prefers the PPP-led coalition over PTI or PML (N).
What TTP threat to IK shows is that they would oppose anyone who wants to be a part of the established democratic system.
TTP threat to IK could also mean that they share the common suspicion that ISI covertly supports PTI. Imran Khan's reported alliance with Sheikh Rasheed also reinforces this suspicion.
you analysis makes no sense. Here are few questions I would like you to answer.
1. Why are we talking about 2008 elections, when we know for a fact that voter fraud was rampant in that election year?
Voter fraud: 65% of votes in Balochistan were bogus – The Express Tribune
2. What makes you think that the voter turnout in 2013, will be exactly the same as 2008?
3. Explain to me how in the hell the voter turnout in 2008 was 44%, when only 18% of Pakistanis express confidence in the current electoral system?
The picture will become clear once new polls are announced and caretaker gov is formed.There have been rumours that many sitting MNAs and MPAs will leave their parties once they think the time is right.IK has said many are in contact with him.
Someone mentioned something about by-elections.They dont reflect a partys popularity.When Q-league was in power they used to win by-polls but they lost in general elections in 2008.
Someone mentioned something about by-elections.They dont reflect a partys popularity.When Q-league was in power they used to win by-polls but they lost in general elections in 2008.
Now you are clutching at straws.
There is no evidence of major irregularities in 2008 elections that ousted PML (Q), the ruling party, from power. In fact, the results were accepted by all participants.
The process and the results were both closely monitored by independent international observers and no serious objections raised by them.
truthseer
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Acceptance does not equal truth. He has quoted a major paper citing sources reporting that
Regardless of the source, allegations do not constitute proof.
The widely accepted fact is that 2008 elections in Pakistan were the fairest ever. They resulted in a crushing defeat of the ruling party followed by a smooth power transfer to the opposition.
It's hard to ask for more.
PPP does not rule Punjab where the election was held. PML (N) does. The police and bureaucracy in Multan report to Shahbaz Sharif.
I highly doubt you even bothered to read the article
Voter fraud: 65% of votes in Balochistan were bogus The Express Tribune
ISLAMABAD: Balochistan had the highest rate of fake voters during the 2008 general election, according to findings from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA).
these are not baseless allegations, the article cites reports from the Election Commission of Pakistan and NADRA.
I highly doubt you even bothered to read the article
Voter fraud: 65% of votes in Balochistan were bogus – The Express Tribune
ISLAMABAD: Balochistan had the highest rate of fake voters during the 2008 general election, according to findings from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA).
these are not baseless allegations, the article cites reports from the Election Commission of Pakistan and NADRA.
Let's try and reason here.
Supposing for a moment that this claim by Express Trib reporter is correct, can you tell me who you think did this fraud? And who benefited from it?
It doesn't seem like it was the ruling party PML (Q) because it lost badly.
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