Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions

[Jango]

No chance PPP will win the next elections.

kayani is the only reason that PPP lived through a difficult period. (remember when Zardari hastily fled to Dubai for unknown reasons). It won't happen again.

 

[tarrar]

If PPP wins then there is no stopping Military take over (which I support), if PML-N the age of darkness & lies will start again, PTI I have no idea what they will do there are tons of claims & aims but......... I better stay quiet, APML Gen. Musharraf I believe he will do good because he had worked hard for Pakistan & had taken Pakistan forward.

 

[xyxmt]

voting for PTI is voting PPP back in office, so good luck with it

so lets start celebrating pakistan demise already, i give it 3 more years

 

[khanbhai1]

Overseas Pakistanis are getting into the spirit of elections as well. A WBT TV show called Viewpoint From Overseas recently interviewed me on the subject and asked for my analysis and predictions of winners and losers in 2013. Here's a summary of how I see the outcome of the upcoming elections in Pakistan:

you are an overseas Pakistani, so all your analysis should be taken with a grain of salt, because you don't know the ground situation in Pakistan.

1. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 90 or slightly fewer seats of the 272 general seats up for direct elections in 2013.

I guessing you came up with this conclusion because you don't expect PPP to lose in the rural areas. However, I disagree because many powerful rural politicians are flocking to PTI. I don't think politicians like Shah Mehmood Qureshi are that dumb to join PTI, if they don't expect any change in the rural areas.

2. Pakistan Muslim League (N) would be competing with Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) for the second spot.

I don't understand your logic, if PTI is capable of competing with PMLN, then why not PPP. Since both PPP and PMLN get their votes out the same way, with the help of the feudal lords.

4. PPP will essentially retain its vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab while MQM and ANP will carry urban Sindh and KP province respectively.

I think you underestimate the young voters of the urban areas, and with record voter registration. I see ethical base political influence less on this demographic and most of them support PTI, which is an undisputed fact.
Keep in mind that PTI has 7 million members, that is more than the overall votes PMLN got in the last general elections. Imagine how many people will likely vote for PTI.
KP province does not have reliable voters and ANP being part of a pro American coalition, does not help their chances in the up coming elections. Plus, Imran Khan is very popular among Pashtuns.

Also in KPK, you don't know Jamat-e-Islami? If they came then I don't see PTI anywhere as well.. Since most of the nuetral votes will go to Jamat-e-Islami. And ANP will secure their ethical votes. PTI thow has chance in large cities like Peshawar, and may b in Kohat. But Mardan, Swat Swabi, Noshewar will be divided amont Jamat-e-Islami and ANP. And Hazara division will go to you know who.

ANP voters are not as reliable as MQM voters. ANP got zero seats from KP or anywhere in 2002. And having family members from Jamat-e-Islami, I must say that I have never seen them this demoralized and they have a week leadership. I don't see them capable of mobilizing enough to sweep elections in KP

Any party that wins Punjab will be win the elections.

PMLN won the majority in Punjab last time and they didn't win the elections overall. Like other Provinces, Punjab has never been a united front. South Punjab votes different from the rest of Punjab, just like karachi votes different from the rest of the Sindh.

If PPP wins then there is no stopping Military take over (which I support), if PML-N the age of darkness & lies will start again, PTI I have no idea what they will do there are tons of claims & aims but......... I better stay quiet, APML Gen. Musharraf I believe he will do good because he had worked hard for Pakistan & had taken Pakistan forward.

Musharraf is the reason why Zardari and his crooks are in power today, thanks to the NRO. Musharaf will never be power, his time is long gone.

 

[graphican]

This is one of the most imaginary analysis I have came across. Economists says increased prices of food has increased the poor class of society to double and now poverty is atleast 2 times more than where Musharraf had left. I agree Banezir Income Support Program is massive program yet it would remain a failed strategy to feed the poor. Catch me a fish and I would eat once and teach me how to fish and I would never be hungry again. PPP Morons are catching and offering fish to the poor and the moment you take this program away, they will be as miserable and as helpless as they are today. BISP is un-audited todate and we would have to face billions of corruption and politically misuse of this program in the end.

Lets give credit of BISP to PPP and lets consider this was successful. What about 99.9% other National affairs? What about Law and Order, Education, Health, Economy, Electricity, Energy, Creation of Jobs and you keep naming and you will find PPP topping towards the bottom. Nation has suffered from this PPP government to the level that just a day before Yousuf Raza got sacked, people had literally started attacking MPAs and MNAs houses with arms. Had he lasted another week, we might have plunged into a Civil War. I wonder are these analysts are really that smart to pretend to this level or they are genuinely duffers to the and think their audience is also like them.

 

[Bhai Zakir]

Its PPP all the way as the anti govt. votes will be divided between Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q) and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI)

If elections are free and fair there can be only one.

Tsunami!

Karachi have the "Pir" to save it from the "Tsunami"

 

[get straight]

ANP is atleast finished in KPK, it will either be PTI or JI and other religious parties

Its PPP all the way as the anti govt. votes will be divided between Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q) and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI)



Karachi have the "Pir" to save it from the "Tsunami"

and who is ****** to decide on that, do you live in pak to understand the political atmosphere

as for the pir mqm is allying with pti after elections

 

[RiazHaq]

PTI will sweep out PPP seats from Southern Punjab
.

I disagree. PTI Tsunmani is just another urban legend.

What NA-151 tells us is that Abdul Qadir Gilani beat the combined opposition candidate Shaukat Hayat Bosan (brother of PTI leader Sikandar Hayat Bosan) who was fully supported by PML (N), PTI, JI and others.

The fact that Gilani won by just 4000 votes rather than the 24000 vote margin his father enjoyed in 2008 shows that PPP has lost some popularity but it is still more popular than all of its opponents combined.

It shows that if PTI continues to fight with PML (N), both will lose big to the PPP.

What urban middle class analysts and commentators miss is the fact that the PPP has delivered extra Rs. 200 billion a year in rural income by raising food prices in 2008. This rural farm income has brought unprecedented prosperity to the PPP vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab.

Haq's Musings: FMCG Companies Profit From Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan

 

[get straight]

I disagree. PTI Tsunmani is just another urban legend.

What NA-151 tells us is that Abdul Qadir Gilani beat the combined opposition candidate Shaukat Hayat Bosan (brother of PTI leader Sikandar Hayat Bosan) who was fully supported by PML (N), PTI, JI and others.

The fact that Gilani won by just 4000 votes rather than the 24000 vote margin his father enjoyed in 2008 shows that PPP has lost some popularity but it is still more popular than all of its opponents combined.

It shows that if PTI continues to fight with PML (N), both will lose big to the PPP.

What urban middle class analysts and commentators miss is the fact that the PPP has delivered extra Rs. 200 billion a year in rural income by raising food prices in 2008. This rural farm income has brought unprecedented prosperity to the PPP vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab.

Haq's Musings: FMCG Companies Profit From Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan

by your assessment PMLQ must have won instead of PPP by the outcome of by elections??

your idiotic prophecy type statements that ANP will win next KPK elections is enough to tell how bogus are your statements

 

[WAQAS119]

If elections are free and fair there can be only one.

Tsunami!

What kind of delusion your are in?

 

[PakH]

There won´t be any free and fair elections. According to NADRA some 37 million votes were faked in 2007. If the people of Pakistan don´t boycott the next elections you´ll see either PML-N or PPP in power. This is all 'topi drama'.

 

[Emmie]

I disagree. PTI Tsunmani is just another urban legend.

What NA-151 tells us is that Abdul Qadir Gilani beat the combined opposition candidate Shaukat Hayat Bosan (brother of PTI leader Sikandar Hayat Bosan) who was fully supported by PML (N), PTI, JI and others.

The fact that Gilani won by just 4000 votes rather than the 24000 vote margin his father enjoyed in 2008 shows that PPP has lost some popularity but it is still more popular than all of its opponents combined.

It shows that if PTI continues to fight with PML (N), both will lose big to the PPP.

What urban middle class analysts and commentators miss is the fact that the PPP has delivered extra Rs. 200 billion a year in rural income by raising food prices in 2008. This rural farm income has brought unprecedented prosperity to the PPP vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab.

Haq's Musings: FMCG Companies Profit From Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan

I beg to differ.. PPP managed the seat only because it is still in power. Opportunists from rural areas still have a lot to squeeze.

What kind of delusion your are in?

What is the sanity near you?

 

[RiazHaq]

There won´t be any free and fair elections. According to NADRA some 37 million votes were faked in 2007. If the people of Pakistan don´t boycott the next elections you´ll see either PML-N or PPP in power. This is all 'topi drama'.

If you can not trust a clean, fair and honest person like new Chief Election Commissioner Justice Fakhruddin G. Ibrahim working with an independent caretaker govt, I don't will think you trust anyone in the world to hold free and fair elections anywhere.

 

[Emmie]

No chance PPP will win the next elections.

kayani is the only reason that PPP lived through a difficult period. (remember when Zardari hastily fled to Dubai for unknown reasons). It won't happen again.

I don't know the grounds of your post.. I have roots in interior Sindh, conditions there aren't good for PPP. If PTI follows a viable modus operandi they easily can manage some members from there too.

 

[RiazHaq]

I beg to differ.. PPP managed the seat only because it is still in power. Opportunists from rural areas still have a lot to squeeze.

PPP does not rule Punjab where the election was held. PML (N) does. The police and bureaucracy in Multan report to Shahbaz Sharif.