Manticore
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Thrust Vector Engines for the J-10 and Carrier News
Russian sources stated that China and the Russian Salyut engine concern were in the process of negotiating a future sale of the AL-31FN engine, but with a axisymmetric thrust vectoring nozzle. These sources would not state the number of engines in this package, but did confirm previous statements that the thrust vectored engines were intended to support a Chinese Navy version of the Chengdu J-10 fighter--presumably for aircraft carrier use. In 2005 a Russian source had noted Chinas interest in the thrust vectored modified version of the AL-31FN, but in 2007 it is now apparent that such a sale is under negotiation. With its forward stabilizer canard configuration, thrust vectoring for the J-10 could conceivably allow a lower landing speed, or enable a faster recovery take-off from a Bolter, or a failed arrested carrier deck landing. Both capabilities would be of interest to the PLA Navy to increase operational safety. In addition, other sources indicate the PLA will use the thrust-vectored J-10 version to better enable useful payloads to be lifted from the high-altitude bases of the Tibetan Plateau just north of India. Otherwise, thrust vectoring would add more to the already inherit high maneuverability of the J-10s canard configuration. Russian sources claim that the thrust vectoring nozzle will not add additional weight to the engine, which might then require airframe or ballast modifications for aircraft.
Possible Russian Engine Upgrades
Russian sources are also confident that China will purchase new advanced higher thrust versions of the AL-31 to modernize existing PLA Sukhoi fighters, and potentially, to comprise future engine orders for the J-10. For example, the AL-31M-3 is intended to produce a 15,000 kg thrust engine, a bit less than that for the Pratt Whitney PW119 that powers the Lockheed Martin F-22A fifth generation fighter. These sources were also confident that Russia would produce a new generation engine to support Russias 5th generation fighter program. This engine would also be in the 15 ton thrust range and be able to support a supercruise mission, or supersonic flight for an operational distance without recourse to fuel guzzling afterburners.
Russian sources also confirmed that China continues to make steady progress in her decade long drive toward the completion of its first modern high power fighter turbofan, sometimes called the WS-10A Taihang. These sources expected that the J-10 would transition from primary reliance on Russian engines to the Chinese engine in less than five years. In late 2006 the Taihang emerged with some publicity after a long period of Chinese development. Since then, Chinese sources have suggested that China may soon develop its own advanced 15,000kg thrust capable version of the Taihang. Chinas engine sector has long been viewed as the Achilles Heel of its aircraft sector, but this is changing fast, the Russian sources concede.
Russian 5th Generation Tidbits
Commenting on Russias 5th generation fighter plans, one Russian source affirmed that a first flight for their new generation fighter would take place in 2009. Other Russian sources were less optimistic, noting the 5th generation fighter might fly by 2012. Russian Premier Ivanov recently noted the first flight would occur in 2010. This fighter would combine 5th generation levels of advance in terms of stealth, supercruise and advanced electronic systems, to include a new active phased array radar system. While responding to unique Russian requirements, this source asserted the new 5th Generation fighter would be better than the F-35 and close to competitive with the F-22. Such a distinction flows more from Russias unique requirements for its 5th generation fighter which does not include a requirement to match or exceed the F-22 in all aspects. This source also suggested that there would be a naval carrier version of this new aircraft. Fully aware of the Russian governments gathering commitment to build a new fleet of up to six nuclear powered aircraft carriers, this source noted, if there is a new ship there should be a new aircraft. This source noted that existing Russian naval aircraft designs like the Su-27KUB would not be the design to meet future Russian naval combat aircraft requirements.
Four To Six Chinese Aircraft Carriers?
Interestingly, a U.S. source that recently spoke with high PLA Navy officers relayed to the IASC that these officers stated that China would eventually build four to six aircraft carriers. In 2007 Chinese officials have been more willing to acknowledge their ambitions to build large aircraft carriers, an ambition that had previously been consistently denied. China is known to have had extensive contact with Russian aircraft carrier design and component manufacturing companies, and is now refurbishing the former Russian/Ukrainian carrier Varyag in Dalian harbor. In addition, PLA Navy officers have visited the French nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle, which may also influence Chinas eventual choice of carrier size and configuration.
Since 2005 this analyst has tracked Chinas aggressive pursuit of its carrier air wing. This has included negotiations to purchase modified Sukhoi Su-33 carrier fighters, which have yet to reach any conclusion, as well as the Shenyang Aircraft Co.s efforts to copy the Su-33, which have included the purchase of Su-33 prototypes from Ukraine. But an additional PLA Navy carrier air wing candidate might be the naval version of Russias 5th generation fighter. Or, perhaps a naval version of Chinas 5th generation fighter. In November a Chinese commentator asserted that Chinas 5th generation fighter could fly as early as 2014 to 2015. Chinese sources indicate that China is developing a 15-ton maximum thrust version of the Taihang engine, which conceivably could support a Chinese 5th generation supercruise mission. Chinese sources have also recently suggested that China is actively developing unmanned combat aircraft for carrier operations.
Twin Seat JF-17 Back On
A Pakistani official stated that the Pakistan side has elected to proceed with the development of a twin-seat version of the Chengdu FC-1 or JF-17 in Pakistan service. A CATIC official refused to comment on this development. The Pakistan Air Forces requirement for a twin seat version of this fighter was first noted to the author by Pakistan Air Force officials in 2004. However, subsequent reports have noted that China was not interested in such a twin-seat version of the FC-1. The Pakistani official at the Dubai show stated, however, that Pakistan has elected to pay for the development of the twin seat version, and that is now proceeding. This official explained that as Pakistan is sharing in the full spectrum of production, usage and sales of the JF-17, that it therefore requires the twin seat version to fully exploit this aircraft. The twin seat version will be used to support training missions and will also be developed into a dedicated attack model. This same official noted that Pakistan will only purchase the Chengdu J-10 fighter, which is therefore of less industrial interest to Pakistan. Other sources have noted that Pakistan intends to purchase an initial force of 40 J-10 fighters.
Since the Dubai show Russias Kommersant has reported that Russia has approved the Klimov RD93 engine in the FC-1/JF-17 for re-export to six countries: Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Re-export to Pakistan had been an issue of serious contention between Russia and India, which uses the RD33, the basis for the RD93, in its MiG-29 fighters. Russias decision is a blow for Delhi, which will now face the JF-17 in significant numbers not only in Pakistan but also potentially in Bangladesh. China will also soon be able to arm the FC-1/JF-17 with 5th generation air-to-air missiles, such as the PL-10 derived from the South African Denel A-DARTER, and another radar-guided missile derived from the Denel R-DARTER. These weapons will greatly increase the combat potential of this low-cost but modern platform. At the same time, it is a major boost for Pakistans and Chinas effort to promote the FC-1/JF-17 as the pre-eminent low-cost 4th generation multirole fighter. Until South Korea can market a single-seat combat version of its T/A-50 trainer, the FC-1/JF-17 will face no competition in its price range. The willingness of China and Pakistan to transfer full co-production capability will enhance the attractiveness of this fighter to many countries also looking to bolster their developing aerospace industries.
International Assessment and Strategy Center > Research > Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow
Russian sources stated that China and the Russian Salyut engine concern were in the process of negotiating a future sale of the AL-31FN engine, but with a axisymmetric thrust vectoring nozzle. These sources would not state the number of engines in this package, but did confirm previous statements that the thrust vectored engines were intended to support a Chinese Navy version of the Chengdu J-10 fighter--presumably for aircraft carrier use. In 2005 a Russian source had noted Chinas interest in the thrust vectored modified version of the AL-31FN, but in 2007 it is now apparent that such a sale is under negotiation. With its forward stabilizer canard configuration, thrust vectoring for the J-10 could conceivably allow a lower landing speed, or enable a faster recovery take-off from a Bolter, or a failed arrested carrier deck landing. Both capabilities would be of interest to the PLA Navy to increase operational safety. In addition, other sources indicate the PLA will use the thrust-vectored J-10 version to better enable useful payloads to be lifted from the high-altitude bases of the Tibetan Plateau just north of India. Otherwise, thrust vectoring would add more to the already inherit high maneuverability of the J-10s canard configuration. Russian sources claim that the thrust vectoring nozzle will not add additional weight to the engine, which might then require airframe or ballast modifications for aircraft.
Possible Russian Engine Upgrades
Russian sources are also confident that China will purchase new advanced higher thrust versions of the AL-31 to modernize existing PLA Sukhoi fighters, and potentially, to comprise future engine orders for the J-10. For example, the AL-31M-3 is intended to produce a 15,000 kg thrust engine, a bit less than that for the Pratt Whitney PW119 that powers the Lockheed Martin F-22A fifth generation fighter. These sources were also confident that Russia would produce a new generation engine to support Russias 5th generation fighter program. This engine would also be in the 15 ton thrust range and be able to support a supercruise mission, or supersonic flight for an operational distance without recourse to fuel guzzling afterburners.
Russian sources also confirmed that China continues to make steady progress in her decade long drive toward the completion of its first modern high power fighter turbofan, sometimes called the WS-10A Taihang. These sources expected that the J-10 would transition from primary reliance on Russian engines to the Chinese engine in less than five years. In late 2006 the Taihang emerged with some publicity after a long period of Chinese development. Since then, Chinese sources have suggested that China may soon develop its own advanced 15,000kg thrust capable version of the Taihang. Chinas engine sector has long been viewed as the Achilles Heel of its aircraft sector, but this is changing fast, the Russian sources concede.
Russian 5th Generation Tidbits
Commenting on Russias 5th generation fighter plans, one Russian source affirmed that a first flight for their new generation fighter would take place in 2009. Other Russian sources were less optimistic, noting the 5th generation fighter might fly by 2012. Russian Premier Ivanov recently noted the first flight would occur in 2010. This fighter would combine 5th generation levels of advance in terms of stealth, supercruise and advanced electronic systems, to include a new active phased array radar system. While responding to unique Russian requirements, this source asserted the new 5th Generation fighter would be better than the F-35 and close to competitive with the F-22. Such a distinction flows more from Russias unique requirements for its 5th generation fighter which does not include a requirement to match or exceed the F-22 in all aspects. This source also suggested that there would be a naval carrier version of this new aircraft. Fully aware of the Russian governments gathering commitment to build a new fleet of up to six nuclear powered aircraft carriers, this source noted, if there is a new ship there should be a new aircraft. This source noted that existing Russian naval aircraft designs like the Su-27KUB would not be the design to meet future Russian naval combat aircraft requirements.
Four To Six Chinese Aircraft Carriers?
Interestingly, a U.S. source that recently spoke with high PLA Navy officers relayed to the IASC that these officers stated that China would eventually build four to six aircraft carriers. In 2007 Chinese officials have been more willing to acknowledge their ambitions to build large aircraft carriers, an ambition that had previously been consistently denied. China is known to have had extensive contact with Russian aircraft carrier design and component manufacturing companies, and is now refurbishing the former Russian/Ukrainian carrier Varyag in Dalian harbor. In addition, PLA Navy officers have visited the French nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle, which may also influence Chinas eventual choice of carrier size and configuration.
Since 2005 this analyst has tracked Chinas aggressive pursuit of its carrier air wing. This has included negotiations to purchase modified Sukhoi Su-33 carrier fighters, which have yet to reach any conclusion, as well as the Shenyang Aircraft Co.s efforts to copy the Su-33, which have included the purchase of Su-33 prototypes from Ukraine. But an additional PLA Navy carrier air wing candidate might be the naval version of Russias 5th generation fighter. Or, perhaps a naval version of Chinas 5th generation fighter. In November a Chinese commentator asserted that Chinas 5th generation fighter could fly as early as 2014 to 2015. Chinese sources indicate that China is developing a 15-ton maximum thrust version of the Taihang engine, which conceivably could support a Chinese 5th generation supercruise mission. Chinese sources have also recently suggested that China is actively developing unmanned combat aircraft for carrier operations.
Twin Seat JF-17 Back On
A Pakistani official stated that the Pakistan side has elected to proceed with the development of a twin-seat version of the Chengdu FC-1 or JF-17 in Pakistan service. A CATIC official refused to comment on this development. The Pakistan Air Forces requirement for a twin seat version of this fighter was first noted to the author by Pakistan Air Force officials in 2004. However, subsequent reports have noted that China was not interested in such a twin-seat version of the FC-1. The Pakistani official at the Dubai show stated, however, that Pakistan has elected to pay for the development of the twin seat version, and that is now proceeding. This official explained that as Pakistan is sharing in the full spectrum of production, usage and sales of the JF-17, that it therefore requires the twin seat version to fully exploit this aircraft. The twin seat version will be used to support training missions and will also be developed into a dedicated attack model. This same official noted that Pakistan will only purchase the Chengdu J-10 fighter, which is therefore of less industrial interest to Pakistan. Other sources have noted that Pakistan intends to purchase an initial force of 40 J-10 fighters.
Since the Dubai show Russias Kommersant has reported that Russia has approved the Klimov RD93 engine in the FC-1/JF-17 for re-export to six countries: Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Re-export to Pakistan had been an issue of serious contention between Russia and India, which uses the RD33, the basis for the RD93, in its MiG-29 fighters. Russias decision is a blow for Delhi, which will now face the JF-17 in significant numbers not only in Pakistan but also potentially in Bangladesh. China will also soon be able to arm the FC-1/JF-17 with 5th generation air-to-air missiles, such as the PL-10 derived from the South African Denel A-DARTER, and another radar-guided missile derived from the Denel R-DARTER. These weapons will greatly increase the combat potential of this low-cost but modern platform. At the same time, it is a major boost for Pakistans and Chinas effort to promote the FC-1/JF-17 as the pre-eminent low-cost 4th generation multirole fighter. Until South Korea can market a single-seat combat version of its T/A-50 trainer, the FC-1/JF-17 will face no competition in its price range. The willingness of China and Pakistan to transfer full co-production capability will enhance the attractiveness of this fighter to many countries also looking to bolster their developing aerospace industries.
International Assessment and Strategy Center > Research > Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow