Armchair
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Money remains an issue plus threat of sanctions.
I have been following this debate.
There are 2 questions which need answering in my view.
Which platform and when.
What is the need.
The need is evident. Mirages are long past their prime and need replacing. However the issues are perrenial for PAF. Firstly where is the money going to come from. Secondly currently PAF is all hands on deck integrating JFT into the system. Block 3 is going to be inducted and with newer capabilities will need a lot of work utilizing newer te h to the max. We have seen PAF has not been able to stand up more than 1 squadron a year inspite of potential for production being upto 25 units/yr. In this environment I dont see anything new coming till at least 2020/21. I more squadron will be stood up in the interim possibly before a hiatus for retooling in preparation for block 3. There are foreign orders to be filled as well.
So whatever happens will happen afterwards.
Now this period in my view is crucial. Our adversary will be inducting the Rafale which is a very capable platform. Any capability acquired would have to be technologically superior to it as paisa for paisa Indian buying power will always be more than ours. In this light in my humble opinion SU or EFT can ony provide appropriate/comparative capabilities which can be countered by increasing the numbers of Rafales. This is a problem that PAF has to grapple with.
Taking it further again there are also a myriad of issues with integrating both platforms. Potentially both are sanctionable as well.Then lack of commonality of spares and weaponry creates additioanl headaches as well as integrating diverse hardware into the netcentric environment. This makes it unlikely for PAF to acquire any of these platforms in my opinion.
The answer has to be Chinese platform. The queztion is which?
In my humble opinion J10 does not give us the bang for buck. It will therefore be either the J11/16 or J20/31or similar AC.
THE problems with J11/16 are known. Which makes me think it will have to be the latter. Any escort mission/work horse jobs will be assigned to progressively advanced JFTs as it seems the most logical solution given the paucity of funds involved.Of the 2 even though the 20 is much more capable it is an overkill for PAF so either J31will be acquired which has multiple advantages or a similar fighter will be inducted. 2 -3 squadrons will give us the breathing space before the Project Azm bears fruit in the form of a light single engined product( I understand this can be refuted in light of the Ex ACMs speech)as the work horse along with J31.
A
Part of the answer perhaps boils down to what the Azm is. Is it:
A) A clean-sheet new design for air superiority, with Saudi help
B) A lightweight multirole 5th gen
C) A modified FC-31
D) A Chengdu design
Applying Occam's Razor, I think twin RD-93 type engines, giving commonality with JFTs is the least assumptive. A conventional wing form would make FCS development considerably simpler. The short time-frame given for development suggests the lowest risk, fastest development choices. So no earth-shattering R&D, just a 5th generation airframe with twin engines.