in such cases, there is always a need for a sober analysis. Sometimes, such things can result in wonders.
I'm also not sure if there are any F-7MGs in operational service with the PAF now, but if I'm not badly wrong, two units - the 17th and 23rd Sqn - of the Southern Command, should at least be acquiring F-7MGs in the moment or since some time.
In the Northern Command PAF the situation is slightly different, as there are at least three units equipped with F-7Ps. The 15th Sqn is based at Kamra, 19th and 23rd at Mianwali. I apologize in advance if my data is not correct any more, I sampled this list some two years ago; there is also a high probability that in such a case of emergency some unites were re-deployed to forward airfields further in the north, just like this was the case with several IAF units of the WAC, which were moved to Pathankot and Adempur.
Now to the operational part. I don't quite understand the heavy criticism expressed by some people here regarding the possibility that an F-7 takes some MiG-29 by surprise, or even outmaneuvers it. Leave the eventual capabilities of these aircraft and Indian or Pakistani pilots now by side and try to think sober.
Due to the fact, that the area where this incident should've happened is very rugged and mountaineous, neither side has a proper radar coverage over it. We should also not forget that neither the PAF nor the IAF have any AWACS assets, and the MiG-29B - even if substantially modified - is a far cry from that Su-27/30 (?) version equipped with rear-facing radar.
Now, add to this the fact, that regarding the radar coverage of airspace over Kargil both sides depend on relatively distant long-range ground based radars, even most modern versions of which are almost certainly able to give a relatively clear picture of what is going on only over the level of 20.000ft (7.430m) or so. As far as I know, there is so far no radar capable of "looking" through mountains, and even over much lover mountain areas of southern Serbia last year, NATO AWACS needed support from fighters like F-15Cs, F-16AMs, Sea Harriers F/A.2s and F-14As to cover their "blind-spots".
I'm not going to discuss here capabilities of Indian MiG-29's N-019M Rubin radars. Theory is always nice and clear, praxis something completely different. In praxis, there are may situations in which interceptor pilots will left their radars on "off" (or "standby"), and fly patterns their collegues in bombers fly. If for no other reason, then to conceal their identity or even in order to decoy the enemy and perhaps lure somebody into a well set trap.
IMHO one also has to consider, that - according to several different articles I read so far, Indian fighters operated from levels between 30.000ft (9.100m) and more during their bombing missions and were asked to stay away between two and five miles (four to eight kilometers) away from the LoC, due to the danger from Pakistani FIM-92 Stingers. Yet, nobody can tell me that - especially IAF's interceptors, pilots of which are particularly familiar with flying deep between Himalayan mountains - haven't operated lower as well (thus staying completely undetected by either Pakistani or Chinese radars), or that they never flew over the LoC. Also, nobody can tell me that Pakistanis are not practicing similar tactics.
Now, these days nobody is flying potential combat mission alone - without any support by a wingman - any more (except for Yugoslav MiG-29 pilots in last year, which suffered losses accordingly). Thus, I would rather say that - if this happened - there were two F-7Ps and two MiG-29s.
All that said, I'm very sure that there is a possibility - I repeat: possibility - for two F-7P to, guided by GCI, sneak-up on two MiG-29s which are loitering on a high level. They could easily close undetected, flying at low level, deep between mountains, climb at high speed and catch MiGs completely unaware. Of course, especially the last part of such an enterprise would be very risky business: MiG-pilots could detect them, assume that F-7s had agressive intentions, turn around and shot them down.
Yet - and this is something Balderdash will certainly confirm - while MiG-29 have pretty smoky engines, and could be visually acquired from distances of up to 10 miles without any problems on clear day, F-7s (alias MiG-21F-13) are extreemely hard to acquire visually, foremost due to their very low cross-section. I personally witnessed cases when - on a particularly clear day - it was hard to spot a light-grey painted MiG-21MF over a distance of more than four kilometers while standing on the ground. PAF's F-7s carry some kind of "ghost-grey" camo pattern, which is adapting itself to actual light conditions. With their smaller inlets, and from a cockpit of a fast moving (and vibrating) fighter, they are even harder to spot than MiG-21MF.
Try to develop this even further: PAF radar detects MiG-29s operating at high level and three pairs of F-7Ps are scrambled, two of which make a large curve around MiGs, while the third is waiting at low level. MiGs will certainly detect first or second Pakistani pair, but the GCI would have a relatively easy job of guiding one of remaining pairs low under the enemy. Would Indian pilots remain aware of other potentional dangers under such circumstances?
One can never know, of course, there is also a possibility that MiGs detect all the threats and pull back early, or shot some of them down. But I would never say that something similar is impossible simply because "MiG-29's BVR missiles". Especially not for that reason. The only experiences of the use of R-27s so far (during the war between Ethiopia and India) were VERY negative (even if those were used by experienced Russian pilots).
I also wouldn't comment at all the - eventual - "dogfight" phase of this incident (if it ever happened): one can never be sure if something similar (means, F-7 sitting at MiG-29's "six") is possible or not. Both planes are prized for their high maneuvreability, but it always depends too much the moment, the moment of surprise, on pilots and circumstances...
So, that was my "five cents" on this matter (if I'm honest, however, I expect that some responses will come like if I talked about several billions... ;-)).
Regards
Tom
PS There is one "2nd tought" about this, however: why shouldn't Pakistani F-7-pilots, after achieving such an advantageous position behind some Indian MiG-29, fire? Pakistani soldiers fired, downing one MiG-21, one MiG-27 and one Mi-8 by Stingers. Why shouldn't PAF-pilots do the same? Except if this never happened...?
on us and would say GOOD JOB !!
