Make In India - Fighter Jet musings - News, Developments, Updates - F16,F18, Gripen, Any other

[Lord Of Gondor]

The logical end, if the US will not allow MII for F-16, is that India buy JAS-39 Gripen E.

The logical end is to extend orders for the aircraft in production(Su30s, Rafales and Tejas) and on order, and work to get the Next Gen Fighters on time and with minimal cost overruns.
This single engine fighter make in India BS and the original author of the idea Def. Min. Parrikkar are both long gone, IMO.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

The logical end is to extend orders for the aircraft in production(Su30s, Rafales and Tejas) and on order, and work to get the Next Gen Fighters on time and with minimal cost overruns.
This single engine fighter make in India BS and the original author of the idea Def. Min. Parrikkar are both long gone, IMO.

Ordering more Su-30MKI will make IAF unbalanced.

Rafale was selected for MMRCA, with the intention of buying 126.
After 5 years of negotiation, without progress, only 36 was bought.
Nothing has changed, so ordering 100-200 Rafales is not really logical.

The government and IAF is not overly impressed with Tejas.
Maybe they do not want to put all eggs in the same basket.

Modi is keen on MII, so it does not matter that Parrikar left.

 

[Lord Of Gondor]

Nothing has changed, so ordering 100-200 Rafales is not really logical.

Well India started out with dozens of Su-30s in the late 90's.
It now has the one of the largest Su-30 fleet in the world.
The Rafale will see more orders, make no doubt. How many more is the question.
And the Tejas story is much brighter than you seem to suggest.
The current orders are for 123 Jets. That is numerically comparable to the entire fighter fleet of Sweden, so not a small number at all.
And Make in India for defense does not hinge solely on this deal, although it could become a big factor.
And Parrikkar's absence is a huge setback.
There isn't even an RFI out for this so called Single Engined Fighter MII thing. That tells a lot.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Well India started out with dozens of Su-30s in the late 90's.
It now has the one of the largest Su-30 fleet in the world.
The Rafale will see more orders, make no doubt. How many more is the question.
And the Tejas story is much brighter than you seem to suggest.
The current orders are for 123 Jets. That is numerically comparable to the entire fighter fleet of Sweden, so not a small number at all.
And Make in India for defense does not hinge solely on this deal, although it could become a big factor.
And Parrikkar's absence is a huge setback.
There isn't even an RFI out for this so called Single Engined Fighter MII thing. That tells a lot.

October 2016:

A global contest has restarted for supplying India a medium, multi-role fighter, with the Indian Air Force (IAF) inviting top international fighter jet manufacturers to set up a production facility in India. Business Standard has learned that Indian embassies in Washington, Moscow and Stockholm wrote on Friday to fighter jet manufacturers in these countries to confirm whether they would partner an Indian company in building a medium, single-engine fighter, with significant transfer of technology to the Indian entity. The confidential document sent by the embassies is not technically a “Request for Information” (RFI), which is a precursor to a “Request for Proposals” (also known as a tender). However, it serves the same purpose, which is to determine which vendors are interested and what they are willing to offer.

Modi has been in personal contact with the Swedish PM regarding Gripen/MII this summer
- after Parrikar left, so as long as Modi is reelected in 2019, I doubt the project will be killed.
If he is replaced, then anything can happen.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The logical end, if the US will not allow MII for F-16, is that India buy JAS-39 Gripen E.

Nope, India will not tolerate a single vendor situation and the Gripen E won't be ready for in-country trails before 2022/3 and the deal was to be signed in around 2020. The Gripen E will come too late, by then India will have much more interesting things in its focus.

The game is over, the GoI did its best to ram this requirement down the IAF's throats that wanted neither the F-16 nor Gripen but ultimately it was never feasible.

Ordering more Su-30MKI will make IAF unbalanced.

More MKIs will be ordered to keep the Nasik plant churning until the mid 2020s (when FGFA prodcution will begin) final numbers will be in te 320-340 range.

The "unbalanced" talk is total propoganda promoted by SAAB and LM, this has never been a serious consideration of the IAF.

Nothing has changed, so ordering 100-200 Rafales is not really logical.

Everything has changed, the govt, ministers, procurement policies, the strategic threat enviroment, execution of offset obligations by the French side etc etc.

1) The SE jet deal was Parrikar's plan, he is gone now- the Rafale deal was Modi's plan and he now has the reigns of the MoD entirely
2) China's posturing against India is hightening the need for a strike aircraft which the Rafale is tailored to, the SE jets were only ever going to be used in the West but the IAF has Pakistan covered.
3) France is progressing well in discharging their offsets obligations, particuarly their work with GRTE in reviving the Kaveri engine.


When the Rafale is absorbed by the IAF they will never look back. Why would they want the Gripen/F-16 that offers just 50-60% of the capability for 75-80% of the cost? Why would the IAF throw away the BILLIONS they have invested in training on/for the Rafale, infrastructure development for it and customising it to their needs just to get an entirely different type? it makes no sense.

The SE jet deal was always a fantasy and it will remain so.

The government and IAF is not overly impressed with Tejas.

Nonsense, they've ordered 123 units of them, as pointed out- that is more than the size of most airforces, many more will be ordered once the birds start streaming in- there is no big rush for more orders.

Modi is keen on MII, so it does not matter that Parrikar left.

Rafale MII is on its way and it will serve both the IAF's and IN's requirements for new jets- no other OEM can offer this.

The confidential document sent by the embassies is not technically a “Request for Information” (RFI), which is a precursor to a “Request for Proposals” (also known as a tender). However, it serves the same purpose, which is to determine which vendors are interested and what they are willing to offer.

Oh so the document sent out was even less worthless than an RFI which itself is worth next to nothing, the average cycle for RFI-RFP-trails/evaluations-negotiations- orders in India is around 5-7 years, if the process was begun today that would mean orders not before 2023-5 with deliveries in 2026-8! Too little, too late.

The GoI floated this with some other motives in mind- perhaps trying to test the water and see what kind of industrial packages it could get or put some extra pressure on Dassualt but the responses it has got from global OEMs/govts has been lukewarm; the US has already declined any worthwhile ToT which was a prerequisite to this deal being signed.

Modi has been in personal contact with the Swedish PM regarding Gripen/MII this summer

I'm sure it is standard practice to discuss all of these porposals whenever heads of government speak but it isn't really relevent- Modi doesn't have the authority to simply order 90+ jets, there are rules and procedures that have to be followed, as it stands no official SE jet procurement exists- it is mostly hype in the media being fuelled by some quarters with deep pockets.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Nope, India will not tolerate a single vendor situation and the Gripen E won't be ready for in-country trails before 2022/3 and the deal was to be signed in around 2020. The Gripen E will come too late, by then India will have much more interesting things in its focus.

The game is over, the GoI did its best to ram this requirement down the IAF's throats that wanted neither the F-16 nor Gripen but ultimately it was never feasible.


More MKIs will be ordered to keep the Nasik plant churning until the mid 2020s (when FGFA prodcution will begin) final numbers will be in te 320-340 range.

The "unbalanced" talk is total propoganda promoted by SAAB and LM, this has never been a serious consideration of the IAF.


Everything has changed, the govt, ministers, procurement policies, the strategic threat enviroment, execution of offset obligations by the French side etc etc.

1) The SE jet deal was Parrikar's plan, he is gone now- the Rafale deal was Modi's plan and he now has the reigns of the MoD entirely
2) China's posturing against India is hightening the need for a strike aircraft which the Rafale is tailored to, the SE jets were only ever going to be used in the West but the IAF has Pakistan covered.
3) France is progressing well in discharging their offsets obligations, particuarly their work with GRTE in reviving the Kaveri engine.


When the Rafale is absorbed by the IAF they will never look back. Why would they want the Gripen/F-16 that offers just 50-60% of the capability for 75-80% of the cost? Why would the IAF throw away the BILLIONS they have invested in training on/for the Rafale, infrastructure development for it and customising it to their needs just to get an entirely different type? it makes no sense.

The SE jet deal was always a fantasy and it will remain so.



Nonsense, they've ordered 123 units of them, as pointed out- that is more than the size of most airforces, many more will be ordered once the birds start streaming in- there is no big rush for more orders.



Rafale MII is on its way and it will serve both the IAF's and IN's requirements for new jets- no other OEM can offer this.


Oh so the document sent out was even less worthless than an RFI which itself is worth next to nothing, the average cycle for RFI-RFP-trails/evaluations-negotiations- orders in India is around 5-7 years, if the process was begun today that would mean orders not before 2023-5 with deliveries in 2026-8! Too little, too late.

The GoI floated this with some other motives in mind- perhaps trying to test the water and see what kind of industrial packages it could get or put some extra pressure on Dassualt but the responses it has got from global OEMs/govts has been lukewarm; the US has already declined any worthwhile ToT which was a prerequisite to this deal being signed.



I'm sure it is standard practice to discuss all of these porposals whenever heads of government speak but it isn't really relevent- Modi doesn't have the authority to simply order 90+ jets, there are rules and procedures that have to be followed, as it stands no official SE jet procurement exists- it is mostly hype in the media being fuelled by some quarters with deep pockets.

India tolerated a single vendor situation after the Eurofighter was rejected 2012 in favour of Rafale.
Production versions of Gripen E will be delivered in 2019, and that is when India can start testing.
The time sschedule say production in 2023, which can also be met.

The Su-30MKIs orders will have to increase to 450-550, to be considered a SE replacement.

The Rafale was not Modi's plan. He inherited the failed Rafale negotiations and killed it
in favour of a direct purchase of 36 Rafale.
And no, it is not 50-60% of the capability at 75-80% of the cost.
When you look at total cost of ownership, the Rafale is much more expensive due to CPFH.
The cost of Rafale has not changed.

India has announced that there will be a dual engine tender, but there is
no further information. Obviously IN wants this.

If You were correct, then India should announce that the SE project is dead.
This has not happened, why?

Because the US has not announced that the F-16 MII is dead

 

[BON PLAN]

Show a US official statement saying this. I doubt You will find one.
AFAIK, the US government has said nothing about the F-16/MII.

http://psk.blog.24heures.ch/archive/2017/08/04/pas-de-production-de-f-16-en-inde-864085.html

it's in french. Some google translate and it will be cristal clear my dear.

To not have agreed, is not the same as disagreed.
The US government has not commented on the project.
I repeat: Show a US statement.

Honnestly Bro,
It is the weapon sale of the moment. Boeing and LM tried to sell their planes to India for years (MMRCAà. And the US governt don't give a ok NOW and you think it's not unusual ?

The logical end, if the US will not allow MII for F-16, is that India buy JAS-39 Gripen E.

Just remember what is the engine of Gripen.... GE from USA
Just remember FBW system is a US one.
and so one....

No F16 and no Gripen in India.

All that story is just about bargaining to have the best conditions for Rafale MII.

Indian SE is well known : Tejas.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

http://psk.blog.24heures.ch/archive/2017/08/04/pas-de-production-de-f-16-en-inde-864085.html

it's in french. Some google translate and it will be cristal clear my dear.


Honnestly Bro,
It is the weapon sale of the moment. Boeing and LM tried to sell their planes to India for years (MMRCAà. And the US governt don't give a ok NOW and you think it's not unusual ?

That Swiss page is referring to the same quote as everyone else. India.
The US has not said yes or no.
The answer to the question if the US has said yes, is therefore no.
If the question is if the US has said no, the answer will still be no.

The US has never blocked sales of fighters to India.
The US is not allowing ToT on critical items, which is not the same thing.
It is highly unlikely, that they will allow it this time either.

The US has approved the sale of GE engines to India for any Gripen business.

The Rafale is too expensive to buy in the quantities needed to replace the MiG-21.

 

[BON PLAN]

Well India started out with dozens of Su-30s in the late 90's.
It now has the one of the largest Su-30 fleet in the world.
The Rafale will see more orders, make no doubt. How many more is the question.
And the Tejas story is much brighter than you seem to suggest.
The current orders are for 123 Jets. That is numerically comparable to the entire fighter fleet of Sweden, so not a small number at all.
And Make in India for defense does not hinge solely on this deal, although it could become a big factor.
And Parrikkar's absence is a huge setback.
There isn't even an RFI out for this so called Single Engined Fighter MII thing. That tells a lot.

You're right.
It's not without reasons that India paid so much for indigenization of the Rafale (why integrating Lightening pod and SPICE if it's just for 36 ? ).
At least onother batch of 36 will be ordered, and probably a third. Indian leaders will not make the Mirage 2000 mistake another time : ordering too few planes.

That Swiss page is referring to the same quote as everyone else. India.
The US has not said yes or no.
The answer to the question if the US has said yes, is therefore no.
If the question is if the US has said no, the answer will still be no.

The US has never blocked sales of fighters to India.
The US is not allowing ToT on critical items, which is not the same thing.
It is highly unlikely, that they will allow it this time either.

The US has approved the sale of GE engines to India for any Gripen business.

The Rafale is too expensive to buy in the quantities needed to replace the MiG-21.

No answer of a government more than 8 years after the beginning (MMRCA selections began in 2009 and MMRCA requested what is called now MII).... it's worrying no?

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

No answer of a government more than 8 years after the beginning (MMRCA selections began in 2009 and MMRCA requested what is called now MII).... it's worrying no?

The US gave the answer no to the release of source code already for the MMRCA.
ToT for non-LM stuff was always a non-starter.
Production in India after Trumps promise to get jobs back is his problem.
Production of F-16 abroad has occured several times, so there are prescedents.

Choices:

1. Deny MII for F-16: results in lost project and lost jobs
2. Allow MII for F-16: results in maybe a won project. Some jobs Will be kept. Trump will be accused of beeing a hypocrite.

Of course Trump is in denial.
If Trump goes, problem is solved.

You guys are all too certain in a world where anything can happen.

 

[X_Killer]

The logical end, if the US will not allow MII for F-16, is that India buy JAS-39 Gripen E.

Until or unless India signed more agreement CISMOA & BECA, modified LSA aka LEMOA already signed.

@Abingdonboy
There is no need to order more MKI.
Nasik Production line is already producing the last batch of 40 Su-30MKI.

 

[Abingdonboy]

India tolerated a single vendor situation after the Eurofighter was rejected 2012 in favour of Rafale

What? There was no single vendor situation under MMRCA, EFT and Rafale were downselected (Gripen, F-16, F-18 and MiG-35 were rejected) and Rafale was declared "L1", EFT "L2" based on the sealed bids.

Production versions of Gripen E will be delivered in 2019, and that is when India can start testing

This is bordering on delusion, the E only just flew for the first time a few weeks ago, it's not going to be ready to travel to India for in-country full spectrum evaluations within 2 years and if it did it would fail miserably as obviously its systems will not be matured at that point. The matured Gripen/F16 couldn't even meet the IAF's requirements under MMRCA now suddenly the untested Gripen E will straight away? Like I sad, delusional.

The Su-30MKIs orders will have to increase to 450-550, to be considered a SE replacement.

No one is saying the MKI will make up the gap, more MMRCA will be ordered ie the Rafale- this SE requirement is totally fabricated and the IAF has never expressed any interest in it.

The Rafale was not Modi's plan. He inherited the failed Rafale negotiations and killed it

Modi was the key proponant for the Rafale, he could have killed the deal outright and never ordered the Rafale, instead he personally pushed for it and worked with the French side to come to agreeable terms.

There is much more to the IGAs than we know.

If You were correct, then India should announce that the SE project is dead.
This has not happened, why?

Umm, what else does this mean:

Earlier this week, Minister of State for Defence Subhash Bhamre was asked in the Rajya Sabha if India and the US have agreed for transfer of sophisticated technology and production of F-16 fighter jets under 'Make in India'. The Minister replied in the negative.

The Rafale is too expensive to buy in the quantities needed to replace the MiG-21.

Whaaaat? When did anyone say the Rafale was to replace the MiG-21? That's what the LCA is for, 123 units of LCA are already on order, more will flow in the years ahead.

The US gave the answer no to the release of source code already for the MMRCA.
ToT for non-LM stuff was always a non-starter.

Parrikar explicitly stated the ONLY way the SE jet deal would be entertained was if "signifcant ToT" was on the table, the US has answered this question.

If Trump goes, problem is solved.

Trump isn't going anywhere until at least 2022, by that time the window to order new jets will be utterly closed.

@Abingdonboy
There is no need to order more MKI.
Nasik Production line is already producing the last batch of 40 Su-30MKI.

The production of that batch will be finished by 2019-20, FGFA production won't commence until 2025-6, HAL won't allow the production line to stand still so more MKIs will be ordered.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

What? There was no single vendor situation under MMRCA, EFT and Rafale were downselected (Gripen, F-16, F-18 and MiG-35 were rejected) and Rafale was declared "L1", EFT "L2" based on the sealed bids.



This is bordering on delusion, the E only just flew for the first time a few weeks ago, it's not going to be ready to travel to India for in-country full spectrum evaluations within 2 years and if it did it would fail miserably as obviously its systems will not be matured at that point. The matured Gripen/F16 couldn't even meet the IAF's requirements under MMRCA now suddenly the untested Gripen E will straight away? Like I sad, delusional.


No one is saying the MKI will make up the gap, more MMRCA will be ordered ie the Rafale- this SE requirement is totally fabricated and the IAF has never expressed any interest in it.


Modi was the key proponant for the Rafale, he could have killed the deal outright and never ordered the Rafale, instead he personally pushed for it and worked with the French side to come to agreeable terms.

There is much more to the IGAs than we know.


Umm, what else does this mean:

Earlier this week, Minister of State for Defence Subhash Bhamre was asked in the Rajya Sabha if India and the US have agreed for transfer of sophisticated technology and production of F-16 fighter jets under 'Make in India'. The Minister replied in the negative.


Whaaaat? When did anyone say the Rafale was to replace the MiG-21? That's what the LCA is for, 123 units of LCA are already on order, more will flow in the years ahead.


Parrikar explicitly stated the ONLY way the SE jet deal would be entertained was if "signifcant ToT" was on the table, the US has answered this question.


Trump isn't going anywhere until at least 2022, by that time the window to order new jets will be utterly closed.


The production of that batch will be finished by 2019-20, FGFA production won't commence until 2025-6, HAL won't allow the production line to stand still so more MKIs will be ordered.

Once Eurofighter was out, you had a single source negotiation for five years.
I spoke about 2012, all the others were out by then.
You are quite sloppy...

If there are production aircraft, it is worth testing. That will happen in 2019.
That will be MS20+. FOC will be with MS21.
Gripen C failed becaused it lacked AESA, Gripen E has AESA. Whats Your point?
You are just creating FUD.

The Gripen E AESA radar has been tested in the Gripen NG for quite some time.

The statement means exactly what it says. US has not agreed.
It does not say the US has disagreed.

That US says they are not prepared to supply certain ToT just means that Gripen has
an advantage.

You claimed that replacing the SE project was possible by ordering more MKIs.

Next president will be inaugerated 2021-01-20.
Congress may override the president at any time.
He may also be impeached, with Mike Pence as a president.

You make statements according to your wishes, and not according to any sources.

There are no sources saying more Rafales will be purchased for IAF.
There are no sources saying more than 123 Tejas will be purchased.
There are no sources saying that SE project is dead.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Once Eurofighter was out, you had a single source negotiation for five years.
I spoke about 2012, all the others were out by then.
You are quite sloppy...

No, no and no again. The MMRCA was NEVER a single-vendor situation, EFT was declared L2.

If there are production aircraft, it is worth testing. That will happen in 2019.

Gripen E won't even have IOC until 2021/2, how can it possibly be in a position to take part in trails in India? The IAF isn't interested in testing an experimental aircraft- it wants a fully matured and war ready platform, if SAAB is foolish enough to send a pre-IOC a/c to test in India the results will be predictable...

Gripen C failed becaused it lacked AESA, Gripen E has AESA. Whats Your point?
You are just creating FUD.

That was one of the reasons...

The Gripen E AESA radar has been tested in the Gripen NG for quite some time.

What is the AESA by the way, the one from SELEX Galileo? If so then the Gripen has NO chance as SALEX's parent company (Finmeccanica) is blacklisted in India.

The statement means exactly what it says. US has not agreed.
It does not say the US has disagreed.

Mental gymnastics, it is effectively the same thing or at least the outcome is the same- India is not progressing with this farce.

That US says they are not prepared to supply certain ToT just means that Gripen has
an advantage.

Not if there is a single vendor situation and even SAAB's ToT may not be sufficient.

You claimed that replacing the SE project was possible by ordering more MKIs.

No I did not, I never linked more MKIs to the SE jet project.

Congress may override the president at any time.
He may also be impeached, with Mike Pence as a president.

Ifs and buts, Trump will continue limping on and there are no guarentees he won't be re-elected.

+ it is the US Congress that has consistently rejected Indian ToT demands.

You make statements according to your wishes, and not according to any sources.

I am applying common sense and logic, you are Swedish with the Gripen in your profile pic, I think I understand your motivations and your wishes....

There are no sources saying more Rafales will be purchased for IAF.

Again, common sense- India didn't spend billions just to customise 36 Rafales- that woud equate to >$50 MILLION per Rafale, at least 90 more Rafales will come to the IAF just to make this economical.

There are no sources saying more than 123 Tejas will be purchased.

There is no reason more won't be purchased, India always orders in batches- once the Mk.1A is in service the picture will change.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

No, no and no again. The MMRCA was NEVER a single-vendor situation, EFT was declared L2.

Gripen E won't even have IOC until 2021/2, how can it possibly be in a position to take part in trails in India? The IAF isn't interested in testing an experimental aircraft- it wants a fully matured and war ready platform, if SAAB is foolish enough to send a pre-IOC a/c to test in India the results will be predictable...

That was one of the reasons...

What is the AESA by the way, the one from SELEX Galileo? If so then the Gripen has NO chance as SALEX's parent company (Finmeccanica) is blacklisted in India.

Mental gymnastics, it is effectively the same thing or at least the outcome is the same- India is not progressing with this farce.

Not if there is a single vendor situation and even SAAB's ToT may not be sufficient.

No I did not, I never linked more MKIs to the SE jet project.

Ifs and buts, Trump will continue limping on and there are no guarentees he won't be re-elected.

+ it is the US Congress that has consistently rejected Indian ToT demands.

I am applying common sense and logic, you are Swedish with the Gripen in your profile pic, I think I understand your motivations and your wishes....

Again, common sense- India didn't spend billions just to customise 36 Rafales- that woud equate to >$50 MILLION per Rafale, at least 90 more Rafales will come to the IAF just to make this economical.

There is no reason more won't be purchased, India always orders in batches- once the Mk.1A is in service the picture will change.

If EF was L2, how come they were not invited after five years of failed negotiation.
Any L2 position was clearly pure vapour.

India is well aware of the status of Gripen E, including the Leonardo stuff.
They may reject the Gripen E on whatever, or decide to goahead based
on SAABs total offer.
SAAB has their own AESA radar capability based on GaN. Noone else has this.
That is quite valuable as ToT.

The fact remains, the US has not said no to India.

If You did not link the Su-30MKI to the SE project, you did not read the earlier postings.
@Lord Of Gondor did the link, and I pointed out that replacing SE with MKI would result
in an unbalanced solution, which You rejected.

There is no guarantee who will be the president in 2018 even, but You make the assumption
that it is Trump.
Noone knows if he will survive, so just another of your wishful thinking.

I do not make such assumptions and even if Trump is not impeached,
it is January 20, 2021 which is the critical date, not somewhere in 2022.

You do not apply logic, since you do not use logic reasoning.

Your reasoning around Rafale and Tejas is again wishful thinking.