Israel's Iron Dome grossly over-hyped: scientists

[Archdemon]

 

[Archdemon]

 

[Archdemon]

Israeli MoD responds to Iron Dome scepticism



The Israeli Ministry of Defence (MoD) has stated that it "strongly rejects the unsubstantiated study" expressing skepticism about the performance of the Iron Dome short-range rocket interception system.

"The baseless claims do not in any way reflect the performance of Iron Dome," it said in the 13 March statement. "The security establishment is more than content with the system's impressive results and will continue to acquire more Iron Dome batteries."

The statement was a response to a report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz that cited three scientists who questioned the MoD's assertion that the Iron Dome batteries had successfully intercepted more than 80% of rockets that threatened areas under their protection during Operation 'Pillar of Defense' in November 2012.

Largely basing their research on amateur videos showing Iron Dome interceptors being launched against rockets fired by militants in the Gaza Strip, the scientists noted that there were few signs of the secondary explosions they expected to see when a successful interception caused the detonation of the target's warhead.

The scientists also noted that some videos showed interceptors making very sharp turns before exploding, which they believed were inconsistent with a successful interception.

While the MoD declined to provide a detailed response to these arguments, Uzi Rubin – the former head of Israel’s Missile Defense Organization – had no qualms in dismantling the case against Iron Dome.

He pointed out that slow-motion footage of Iron Dome tests clearly showed that successful interceptions did not result in perceivable secondary explosions. “The two explosion are almost instantaneous and the larger fireball of the threat warhead engulfs the minor fireball of the interceptor warhead,” he told IHS Jane’s.

Rubin, who was not directly involved in developing Iron Dome, but describes himself as a friend of the program, also dismissed the claims about the maneuvering of the interceptors. “The interceptor will do very sharp turns towards the final encounter to achieve optimal kill geometry; it is very agile and can turn on a dime,” he said.

“Postol is simply wrong because he is incapable or unwilling to factor in modern missile and warhead capabilities,” Rubin added. “There is no case-by-case analysis as he did in 1991 on the failure of Patriot, it is just a guess based on incomplete data, as he freely admits.”

“Beyond the technology controversy, there is another aspect here: if only 10% of the engaged rockets were hit, where did the other 90% go?” Rubin also noted. “They certainly did not hit the ground, otherwise there would have been carnage [and] they did not all land in undefended zones because Hamas was aiming at our cities. Postal does not address this paradox.”

 

[Archdemon]

The coolest video of Iron Dome in action, the best.

 

[Sam1980]

Palestinian terrorists fired over 1500 rockets at Israeli towns. Yet NOT A SINGLE person was killed in towns protected by Iron Dome.

I'm not supporting these so-called "scientists" claims, but maybe that has something to do with the Hamas rockets being highly unstable and inaccurate? After all majority of the fired rockets were homemade!

To measure failure of Iron Dome, this very basic method could be used:

Variables:

TRF = Total number of rockets fired
FR = Number of rockets failed to target anything, ran out of fuel, etc... (Could use probabilistic measurement)
IR = Total number of intercepted rockets

((TRF - FR) - IR) / (TRF - FR) * 100

 

[500]

I'm not supporting these so-called "scientists" claims, but maybe that has something to do with the Hamas rockets being highly unstable and inaccurate? After all majority of the fired rockets were homemade!

No, virtually all fired rockets were factory made:

107-mm Type 63
122-mm Grad
122-mm WS-1 (improved Grad woth 40 km range)
333-mm Fajar-5

To measure failure of Iron Dome, this very basic method could be used:

Variables:

TRF = Total number of rockets fired
FR = Number of rockets failed to target anything, ran out of fuel, etc... (Could use probabilistic measurement)
IR = Total number of intercepted rockets

((TRF - FR) - IR) / (TRF - FR) * 100

Its little hard to estimate since not all populated areas are covered by Iron Dome (some because its enough batteries and some because they are too close to Gaza).

over 1500 rockets were fired total.
146 rockets fell inside Gaza itself.
421 rockets were intercepted by Iron Dome.
58 times Iron Dome missed.
875 rockets fell in open areas in Israel.
109 rockets fell in populated areas in Israel.
-------------------------------------------------

Here is statistics about town Ashdod:

262 WS-1 rockets were fired towards town
249 rockets intercepted by Iron Dome.
9 fell inside town.

 

[Hussein]

262 WS-1 rockets were fired towards town
249 rockets intercepted by Iron Dome.
9 fell inside town.

that's a good job . i hope Gaza one day will fight against these terrorist groups hopefully...

 

[Archdemon]

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

Let just be brutally honest:-

I have been fallowing the situation lately ,and I can assure you that Hamas did provoke the Isrealis. Therefore, I do believe that the Israelis have the full right to take counter measures.

Hamas must leave for now!

 

[Falcon29]

Let just be brutally honest:-

I have been fallowing the situation lately ,and I can assure you that Hamas did provoke the Isrealis. Therefore, I do believe that the Israelis have the full right to take counter measures.

Hamas must leave for now!

Why do you believe that? You're from Saudi Arabia too...

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

It doesn't matter where I come from. What matters is that both side should always try to find a peaceful solution to the crisis happening there. Last week, Hamas fired multiple rockets toward the southern region of Israel without a provocation from the latter. This would escalate the situation between both sides ,and hundreders of innocent Palestinians will die for the sake of Hamas.

Why do you believe that? You're from Saudi Arabia too...

 

[Falcon29]

It doesn't matter where I come from. What matters is that both side should always try to find a peaceful solution to the crisis happening there. Last week, Hamas fired multiple rockets toward the southern region of Israel without a provocation from the latter. This would escalate the situation between both sides ,and hundreders of innocent Palestinians will die for the sake of Hamas.

Hi Yzad, well I think you're referring to the recent incident, less than few short range were fired by Salafists. Not Hamas. And Hamas has taken measures against them already and arrested several of them for acting against Palestinian National interests. But if you were referring to the time of Ahmed Jabari then that is what I was disagreeing with. But I do agree with you about the random little factions. But most of it is under control and the ceasefire is respected. Although prisoners dying in Israel is a concern.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

Were those rockets fired by the Islamic Jihad members? If so, good job Hamas did bro. I think I both of side must show good well in the long run. What don't want to see anybody getting hurt ,do we? I'm unhappy about the prisoner matter though.

Hi Yzad, well I think you're referring to the recent incident, less than few short range were fired by Salafists. Not Hamas. And Hamas has taken measures against them already and arrested several of them for acting against Palestinian National interests. But if you were referring to the time of Ahmed Jabari then that is what I was disagreeing with. But I do agree with you about the random little factions. But most of it is under control and the ceasefire is respected. Although prisoners dying in Israel is a concern.

 

[Falcon29]

Were those rockets fired by the Islamic Jihad members? If so, good job Hamas did bro. I think I both of side must show good well in the long run. What don't want to see anybody getting hurt ,do we? I'm unhappy about the prisoner matter though.

No, Islamic Jihad is the second biggest. They share the same views as Hamas. Salafists are some people in Rafah, Gaza who are very small on numbers. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are united. As for prisoners, it's a concern but not only that but the ceasfire violations Israel committed well before any rocket or mortar was fired near the border areas. People in Gaza are not afraid, especially the resistance fighters, if Israel commits aggression there will be a response. It's in Israel's hands if they want calm. But they want the opposite and often instigate the fighting.

 

[J dud]

strange.................for some reason non-israeli people are the ones who are most concerned about iron-domes success rate........

if israelis are ok with the iron dome system .........dont know why others are so worked up about it...