Iranian Chill Thread

[TheImmortal]

3) Iran has limited ability to produce plutonium in 2023. However by 2030 there will be Bushehr-1, Bushehr-2, Bushehr-3 and Darkhovin nuclear powerplants that can produce large amount of plutonium in short period of time. German BND estimates that if operated differently Bushehr nuclear powerplant can produce enough plutonium for 30 nuclear warheads. So by 2030 nuclear powerplants of Iran will be able to produce enough plutonium for 100 nuclear warheads each year. You don't have such capability in 2023

Come on, Citing a biased source (German BND) to make an even more unsubstantiated claim.

First of all: Bushehr are all uranium fuel reactors vs the Plutonium reactor (Israel, Syria, Iraq, North Korea). So any plutonium production from Iranian nuclear power plants, I would need to see cities scientific data on and not fear mongering by German spy agency.

Second of all: Iran is contract by Russia to remove spent fuel rods out of country.

Third of all: While it is theoretically possible to extract nuclear material from spent fuel rods it’s is not a efficient route and would require Iran to set up a facility that simply does not exist (reprocessing and extracting spent fuel roads) as well as develop such tech.

The plutonium route is most efficient thru plutonium fueled reactors or heavy water reactors that produce substantial plutonium by product. Both of which don’t exist in Iran.

 

[HGV]

If Iran wants to build nuclear weapons, it is better to cross the red line in 2030 rather than in 2023 for several reasons:

1) Iran doesnt have ICBM in 2023. But in 2025 Qaem-110 might be tested and it might be like light Midgetman ICBM and then it will be flight tested for another 3 years until 2028 to check its reliability and between 2028 and 2030 4-6 such light ICBMs with ability to deliver 4-6 nuclear warheads can be deployed. Also in 2026 Qaem-120 might be tested and it might be like Minuteman III ICBM and then it will be flight tested for another 3 years until 2029 to check its reliability and between 2029-2030 2 such ICBMs with ability to deliver 6 nuclear warheads can be deployed. Also Sarir, if it is solid fuel rocket, it will be in the class of Peacekeeper ICBM that can deliver 11 nuclear warheads - Iran can have 1 such ICBM by 2030 after multiple flight tests between 2026-2029. So while Iran doesn't have ICBM in 2023 and it doesn't make any sense to produce nuclear weapons when you don't have an ICBM, by 2030 Iran can potentially deploy minimum 9 ICBMs that can deliver 33 nuclear warheads to US.....so it is better to cross the red line when you have developed other aspects of nuclear weapons capability rather then when you don't have any delivery systems.

Reaching Israel is sufficient deterrent

2) Iran doesn't have efficient uranium enrichment capability in 2023. Its IR-6 centrifuges have many problems and break during the enrichment process and enrichment facilities are large and vulnerable to aerial attack. However by 2030 Iran might have small efficient enrichment facilities with IR-9 centrifuges which are 50 times more efficient compared to IR-1.

I am not aware of these supposed problems with IR-6

This is also the first time I have heard the suggestion that Fordow is vulnerable to an aerial attack. Fordow + the new Natanz facility (f it is ever brought into operation for enrichment) are extremely well protected.

3) Iran has limited ability to produce plutonium in 2023. However by 2030 there will be Bushehr-1, Bushehr-2, Bushehr-3 and Darkhovin nuclear powerplants that can produce large amount of plutonium in short period of time. German BND estimates that if operated differently Bushehr nuclear powerplant can produce enough plutonium for 30 nuclear warheads. So by 2030 nuclear powerplants of Iran will be able to produce enough plutonium for 100 nuclear warheads each year. You don't have such capability in 2023

Plutonium is not on the cards for Iran as it stands, and definitely not if it reaches some new interim deal with the US

4) Iran has limited military capability in 2023. However by 2030 3rd Khordad, 15 Khordad, Bavar 373 will be 15-20 years in production and Iran will accumulate large number of AD systems for building multilayered AD network. Also between 2023-2030 Iran can accumulate hundreds of new cruise missiles, hundreds of anti-ship missiles including supersonic anti-ship missiles, hundreds of hypersonic missiles, double its ballistic missile arsenal with better missiles and accumulate tens of thousands of cheap suicide drones and thousand drones......so you better cross the red line when you have accumulated huge arsenal of new weapons with multilayered AD network and thousands of new cruise, ballistic, anti-ship missiles and drones rather then when you have smaller military capability and can be vulnerable to preemptive strike.

And in those years the military capability of Iran's rivals will not move?

 

[GWXP]

Come on, Citing a biased source (German BND) to make an even more unsubstantiated claim.

First of all: Bushehr are all uranium fuel reactors vs the Plutonium reactor (Israel, Syria, Iraq, North Korea). So any plutonium production from Iranian nuclear power plants, I would need to see cities scientific data on and not fear mongering by German spy agency.

Second of all: Iran is contract by Russia to remove spent fuel rods out of country.

Third of all: While it is theoretically possible to extract nuclear material from spent fuel rods it’s is not a efficient route and would require Iran to set up a facility that simply does not exist (reprocessing and extracting spent fuel roads) as well as develop such tech.

The plutonium route is most efficient thru plutonium fueled reactors or heavy water reactors that produce substantial plutonium by product. Both of which don’t exist in Iran.

According to this article by Hans Rühle who is a former Head of the Planning Staff in the German Ministry of Defense:

Is Turkey Secretly Working on Nuclear Weapons?

While the world worries about Iran's nuclear program, could another nation in the Middle East have atomic desires?

nationalinterest.org

"The Iranian reactor Bushehr offers a telling example. If the reactor were powered down after eight months and the fuel rods removed, Iran would own 150 kilogrammes of plutonium with an impurity level of only 10 percent—the equivalent of twenty-five Nagasaki-category bombs"

"The common counterargument, according to which the separation of the “dirty” plutonium would require a sophisticated reprocessing plant that currently does not exist in Turkey, remains unconvincing. Studies have shown that such a plant can be built within half a year and would be the size of a regular office building."

 

[TheImmortal]

According to this article by Hans Rühle who is a former Head of the Planning Staff in the German Ministry of Defense:

Is Turkey Secretly Working on Nuclear Weapons?

While the world worries about Iran's nuclear program, could another nation in the Middle East have atomic desires?

nationalinterest.org

"The Iranian reactor Bushehr offers a telling example. If the reactor were powered down after eight months and the fuel rods removed, Iran would own 150 kilogrammes of plutonium with an impurity level of only 10 percent—the equivalent of twenty-five Nagasaki-category bombs"

"The common counterargument, according to which the separation of the “dirty” plutonium

would require a sophisticated reprocessing plant that currently does not exist in Turkey

Does not exist in Turkey? Dude doesn’t even know what country he is talking about.

But fine I’ll play along:

1) The number is actually closer to 250kg of plutonium

2) The best moment is after the first year fuel cycle (15 months) to mimic weapons grade plutonium as close as possible with little processing. This will get you Hiroshima level kiloton yield (10-20). By 3rd year fuel cycle that plutonium quality drops to single digit kiloton yield.

2) The reactor has to be powered down (most dangerous process) and Iran will lose electricity during this time across all reactors that are joining this power down method. So besides the obvious signal that Iran is planning to do a rush for the bomb using plutonium route, there is the practicality of the whole process and its effect on national grid. Also you cannot keep turning on and off the nuclear reactor like a light switch. It’s a dangerous process.

So I assume iran will do this once to get 1,000kg across all the plants (4). But this would be hypothetical event in 2035+ given how long each plant will take to come online.

Furthermore, Russia would likely stop providing new fuel rods to Iran. So Iran would need to use Iranian only produced fuel rods if it wishes to restart the plants after the first dash.

3) Iran is a part of NPT. It has to declare each nuclear facility with prior notification to coming online (usually at least a year in advance).

Thus every western intelligence agency on the planet will know when Iran builds such a reprocessing facility even prior to IAEA notification.

4) it’s an obvious route that can lead to military strikes


The easier stealthier route would be to buy uranium (assuming Iran doesn’t have a secret stash) enough for 3-4 test bombs from a foreign country (ex North Korea). Then feed fuel into a secret nano pilot plant using IR-9’s. With 50 SWU per IR-9, all you would need is 250 IR-9s to get Natanz like enrichment production.

Then do your detonation and declare to the world you are nuclear power. Afterwards, you would pull out of NPT and start building your arsenal using your own uranium production. If you’d want plutonium, it’s easier to build heavy water reactors like Arak that can create ~5-7 bombs a year without the headache that comes with powering entire reactors down.

 

[Hack-Hook]

If true goes to show it doesn’t matter if Rouhani (liberal) or Raisi (conservative) is in the executive branch.

Iran’s deep state will make whatever decision they feel is best.

Let’s see how this plays out.

Zarif brought the money back to Iran and Iran could do whatever it wanted with money
raesi agreed the money be in Doha and be spent on whatever USA allow

wonder why the ones who called Zarif a traitor and insulted him left and right an now silent or praising this deal

There are conflicting reports on what Iran received (restrictions on what is allwed to be spent for the 6 billion dollars ) and what other concessions Iran had to make for this informal deal...what mullahs say and what is being reported do not correspond..what is the truth!..did Iran capitulate..

there is no conflict , its another food for oil program that principalsts don't knew how to paint it as a better deal than what Zarif got

 

[Cthulhu]

Very smart investment decision by the Saudi crown prince, Genius.

 

[glablo]

Unfortunately, it has been reported in the Japanese media that this unreasonable agreement was also confirmed by Iranian government officials.
In addition, according to the White House announcement, all use of the frozen funds will be under the strict supervision of the U.S. government and will not be freely available to Iran.
All uses and payees must be reported to the U.S. government for approval, and only food and medicine will be allowed.
Specifically, the $7 billion stolen from South Korea will be transferred to a Swiss bank and placed under the control of the Qatari government.
The U.S. will be notified of all payments.
This is hardly the treatment of an independent country, and it seems that President Raisi is no different from Rouhani after all.

 

[Hack-Hook]

This is hardly the treatment of an independent country, and it seems that President Raisi is no different from Rouhani after all.

rouhani didn't agree to such term

 

[Shawnee]

If Iran wants to build nuclear weapons, it is better to cross the red line in 2030 rather than in 2023 for several reasons:

1) Iran doesnt have ICBM in 2023. But in 2025 Qaem-110 might be tested and it might be like light Midgetman ICBM and then it will be flight tested for another 3 years until 2028 to check its reliability and between 2028 and 2030 4-6 such light ICBMs with ability to deliver 4-6 nuclear warheads can be deployed. Also in 2026 Qaem-120 might be tested and it might be like Minuteman III ICBM and then it will be flight tested for another 3 years until 2029 to check its reliability and between 2029-2030 2 such ICBMs with ability to deliver 6 nuclear warheads can be deployed. Also Sarir, if it is solid fuel rocket, it will be in the class of Peacekeeper ICBM that can deliver 11 nuclear warheads - Iran can have 1 such ICBM by 2030 after multiple flight tests between 2026-2029. So while Iran doesn't have ICBM in 2023 and it doesn't make any sense to produce nuclear weapons when you don't have an ICBM, by 2030 Iran can potentially deploy minimum 9 ICBMs that can deliver 33 nuclear warheads to US.....so it is better to cross the red line when you have developed other aspects of nuclear weapons capability rather then when you don't have any delivery systems.

2) Iran doesn't have efficient uranium enrichment capability in 2023. Its IR-6 centrifuges have many problems and break during the enrichment process and enrichment facilities are large and vulnerable to aerial attack. However by 2030 Iran might have small efficient enrichment facilities with IR-9 centrifuges which are 50 times more efficient compared to IR-1.

3) Iran has limited ability to produce plutonium in 2023. However by 2030 there will be Bushehr-1, Bushehr-2, Bushehr-3 and Darkhovin nuclear powerplants that can produce large amount of plutonium in short period of time. German BND estimates that if operated differently Bushehr nuclear powerplant can produce enough plutonium for 30 nuclear warheads. So by 2030 nuclear powerplants of Iran will be able to produce enough plutonium for 100 nuclear warheads each year. You don't have such capability in 2023

4) Iran has limited military capability in 2023. However by 2030 3rd Khordad, 15 Khordad, Bavar 373 will be 15-20 years in production and Iran will accumulate large number of AD systems for building multilayered AD network. Also between 2023-2030 Iran can accumulate hundreds of new cruise missiles, hundreds of anti-ship missiles including supersonic anti-ship missiles, hundreds of hypersonic missiles, double its ballistic missile arsenal with better missiles and accumulate tens of thousands of cheap suicide drones and thousand drones......so you better cross the red line when you have accumulated huge arsenal of new weapons with multilayered AD network and thousands of new cruise, ballistic, anti-ship missiles and drones rather then when you have smaller military capability and can be vulnerable to preemptive strike.

5) Building nuclear bomb in a semi-unipolar world is not a good idea. While we are moving away from the unipolar world, at this moment US is still very influential and can isolate Iran even further and do more economic damage....But by 2030 we will be living in a polarized world where the West will be less influential and will be seriously challenged by Russia/China....So it might be better to cross the red line when there will be a new reality and new international order, rather than in this semi-unipolar world we are living today.

6) Iran can be more influential by 2030 compared to 2023. While Iran is influential in Iraq/Syria/Yemen/Lebanon its influence in these countries is not absolute at this moment....However by 2030 Iran can deepen its influence in these countries and this will make Iran stronger.

So it is better to go nuclear in 2030 when you will have multiple reliable ICBMs, efficient uranium enrichment infrastructure, strong ability to produce plutonium, much stronger military capability, deep sphere of influence and no longer live in a unipolar world where you can become a pariah, rather than in 2023 when you don't have ICBMs, no efficient uranium enrichment infrastructure, little ability to produce plutonium, weaker military capability, no absolute influence in the region and live in the semi-unipolar world where you can be isolated from global trade.

So why not make a temporal deal with US that can unfreeze billions of dollars and allow Iran to sell its oil at market price while giving Iran time to develop all other aspects of power?

I have four objections:

1. You do not need Plutonium for anything even thermonuclear.

2. It is anecdotal to say Iran 2030 is stronger comparatively.

3. Undeclared activities appear more significant. This is a long discussion.

4. You may argue SICBM at 12-15000 is already done.

 

[aryobarzan]

This is how Mullahs of Iran selling the deal to their population:

ین مقام امنیتی در پایان گفت: این عملیات تبادل در واقع یکی از موفق ترین و نافع ترین مذاکراتی است که تا به امروز برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران اتفاق افتاده است و عملا در ازای چند زندانی که محکومیتشان رو به پایان بود چند زندانی ایرانی را آزاد کردیم و از آن طرف، بدون اینکه تعهد دیگری از جنس تعهدات برجامی‌ داده شود موفق شدیم میلیاردها دلار منابع مسدود شده خود را آزاد کنیم.

If Mullahs of Iran have given Nuclear or Space concessions how can one prove this... @HGV .Mullahs will try to hide this from population . Do we have to wait for UN inspectors report on 60% stockpile.!!..all space launches have been stopped for over 8 months now..

shamefully spending the freed funds have to be used by US approval (and these mullah f*ckers wanted to free West Asia from Americans!,,they can not even free their own cash!)...did they at least reserve the right to sue south Korea for loss of Interest and capital on a later date when Iran gets non-mullah government.

Mullahs must be squeezed so bad financially that they had to accept this shameful deal..where is the OIL money going..why no one can feel its effect on daily life. Is Iran going to have to make a similar deal to get our money from IRAQ!..they better start arresting some more dual national..lol

 

[tsunset]

Unfortunately, it has been reported in the Japanese media that this unreasonable agreement was also confirmed by Iranian government officials.
In addition, according to the White House announcement, all use of the frozen funds will be under the strict supervision of the U.S. government and will not be freely available to Iran.
All uses and payees must be reported to the U.S. government for approval, and only food and medicine will be allowed.
Specifically, the $7 billion stolen from South Korea will be transferred to a Swiss bank and placed under the control of the Qatari government.
The U.S. will be notified of all payments.
This is hardly the treatment of an independent country, and it seems that President Raisi is no different from Rouhani after all.

Iranian officials without names? Japanese spies in Iran?

There is still nothing on Iranian press agency

This is still a fairy story at this point, look at the above post to see how some people buys it like a discounted carpet

 

[HGV]

This is how Mullahs of Iran selling the deal to their population:

ین مقام امنیتی در پایان گفت: این عملیات تبادل در واقع یکی از موفق ترین و نافع ترین مذاکراتی است که تا به امروز برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران اتفاق افتاده است و عملا در ازای چند زندانی که محکومیتشان رو به پایان بود چند زندانی ایرانی را آزاد کردیم و از آن طرف، بدون اینکه تعهد دیگری از جنس تعهدات برجامی‌ داده شود موفق شدیم میلیاردها دلار منابع مسدود شده خود را آزاد کنیم.

If Mullahs of Iran have given Nuclear or Space concessions how can one prove this... @HGV .Mullahs will try to hide this from population . Do we have to wait for UN inspectors report on 60% stockpile.!!..all space launches have been stopped for over 8 months now..

shamefully spending the freed funds have to be used by US approval (and these mullah f*ckers wanted to free West Asia from Americans!,,they can not even free their own cash!)...did they at least reserve the right to sue south Korea for loss of Interest and capital on a later date when Iran gets non-mullah government.

Mullahs must be squeezed so bad financially that they had to accept this shameful deal..where is the OIL money going..why no one can feel its effect on daily life. Is Iran going to have to make a similar deal to get our money from IRAQ!..they better start arresting some more dual national..lol

The best reports will be IAEA quarterly reports, they will confirm for sure the pace of enrichment and stockpile of uranium at each level of enrichment. We know the pace of increase in 60% enriched uranium for the last reports, so we can extrapolate and compare to the next report and see for sure if it is lower or higher than expected.

The lies and spinning of certain pro-IRI propagandists about this oil for medicine/food deal are really outrageous and pathetic

Space concessions can't be proven, 8 months without launches is not necessarily linked to a concession, could be some failed launches not disclosed in that period. But Iranian law requires at least 2 launches per year and so far this year they didn't claim any...

 

[tsunset]

The best reports will be IAEA quarterly reports, they will confirm for sure the pace of enrichment and stockpile of uranium at each level of enrichment. We know the pace of increase in 60% enriched uranium for the last reports, so we can extrapolate and compare to the next report and see for sure if it is lower or higher than expected.

The lies and spinning of certain pro-IRI propagandists about this oil for medicine/food deal are really outrageous and pathetic

Space concessions can't be proven, 8 months without launches is not necessarily linked to a concession, could be some failed launches not disclosed in that period. But Iranian law requires at least 2 launches per year and so far this year they didn't claim any...

The lies and spinning of certain pro-IRI propagandists about this oil for medicine/food deal are really outrageous and pathetic

You are credulous and we've seen it all over your past posts where you were even believing a blatant hasbara about an Iranian terrorist in Cyprus

This aside, can you at least show official sources about this "oil for food" deal that has been accepted by Iran?

It looks that words coming from whites mouths are more trustable even if they are backed by nothing to some of you, but words coming even from Iranians have less trust value, this is starting to get sad and more sad over time. You are one of the first to denounce propaganda, but also here you are the first to buy it for free without any counterpart or remorse

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

Iran already imports around 10 billion a year on food and medicines, not to mention other medical equipment. So technically it's not a problem to spend the money on such imports. P.s: Iran imports much less food and medicines per capita compared to other countries.

 

[HGV]

You are credulous and we've seen it all over your past posts where you were even believing a blatant hasbara about an Iranian terrorist in Cyprus

You guys always play the man not the ball. I don't know what you're talking about but I don't care either, it's just one of your usual dirty tactics to silence critics

This aside, can you at least show official sources about this "oil for food" deal that has been accepted by Iran?

If you expect the IRI to admit to that then you have bigger problems and clearly know nothing about the IRI

Their official spin revolves around (1) ignoring the restrictions on how these unfrozen funds can be used (pretending they don't exist - this is the official line in state media) or (2) lying and saying there are no restrictions (see Marandi and CBI governor)

It looks that words coming from whites mouths are more trustable even if they are backed by nothing to some of you, but words coming even from Iranians have less trust value, this is starting to get sad and more sad over time. You are one of the first to denounce propaganda, but also here you are the first to buy it for free without any counterpart or remorse

Iranian officials are notorious liars with zero accountability, yes, if you don't want to accept this it's not our problem

Iran's enemies also spread vicious lies to further their anti-Iran agenda, but your days of obfuscating the IRI's behaviour by invoking the behaviour of certain elements in the West are coming to an end

If you think the IAEA reports are full of lies then you should ask the IRI officials why they never said that themselves

Iran already imports around 10 billion a year on food and medicines, not to mention other medical equipment. So technically it's not a problem to spend the money on such imports. P.s: Iran imports much less food and medicines per capita compared to other countries.

Notwithstanding the obvious issues of principle of letting another state (USA) tell Iran how it can use its own funds (which apparently you guys don't care about), if this is the case then the IRI should admit it, instead of lying to the people that there are no such restrictions