This is a recent article posted on the Telegram channel of Rybar, the well known Russian military analyst and map maker. I think it's just pure speculation. The Armenian military is too weak and needs a massive overhaul, not to mention Iran's dire economic situation.
Wars are extremely costly. Just look at how Turkey was about to attack northern Syria again. It was all but certain but they didn't go through with it. People can speculate all they want but I believe it's because of their economic situation. Almost everytime Turkey has attacked northern Syria or been involved in any military conflict, the Lira tends to dip in value and right now Turkey cannot afford that and neither can Iran.
Of course if Iran's access to Armenia and the Caucasus is threatened, I don't see Iran sitting idly by and letting it happen, but if Turkey and Baku decide to invade Armenia, I believe that Iran will be the least of their worries. I don't see Russia tolerating such a move. Nagorno Karabakh was disputed territory, but Armenia proper is internationally recognized.
Right now Russia is embroiled in a war with Ukraine but that war won't last forever. Then there's the US and the west. Nancy Pelosi went Armenia several months back and while she was there she visited a monument to the Armenian genocide. I don't see the west sitting idle by and allowing Armenia to be conquered. I don't think they will use military force but its very likely that they will go ahead and impose crippling sanctions on Turkey and Baku.
If something does happen, Iran's best bet is to move troops up north while trying to negotiate a peaceful settlement. However if left with no other options, Iran should agree on a joint operation with Russia, so while the Russians maneuver from the north, Iran can focus on the south. If anything Iran will likely focus on Nakhchivan since it's an isolated enclave and because from a logistics standpoint Iran has a major advantage there. Remember Nakhchivan's entire southern strip stretches along Iran's northern border. Turkey however only has access to Nakhchivan through a very narrow mountain pass. If that mountain pass is compromised, then that's basically it.
Anyways I hope it never comes to that. Wars should always be a last resort when all diplomatic options have been thoroughly exhausted. As far as this article is concerned, I don't buy it but here it is for those who are interested in reading it.
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About Iran's possible involvement in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenian activist Mika Badalyan writes (https://****/mikayelbad/20940) that the only possible solution to the Artsakh conflict is a full-fledged war with the support of Iran.
In his opinion, Iranian rhetoric regarding Nagorno-Karabakh has changed in recent months. The recent speech of the Armenian political scientist Zhanna Vardanyan on the Iranian federal TV channel "Du" (شبکه دو) caused a furore in the Azerbaijani media segment and confirms the change of position towards the conflict in Tehran.
Why is this important?
Iran is a country with a strict political and religious order, where the activities of state television channels and the media are strictly regulated with a common state position on a particular issue.
The speech of the Armenian expert saying that Karabakh has always belonged to Armenia, as well as the accusations against the Azerbaijani authorities about the Armenian-phobic policy of genocide, would not have been aired without the consent of the government television and radio company Voice of the Islamic Republic.
What influenced the decision of the Iranian authorities regarding the change of position on the Karabakh issue?
In previous years, Iranian and Azerbaijani mutual threats did not cross borders and were limited to a clear line that both sides observed, but now the situation is different.
The governments of both countries have already conducted exercises (https://****/rybar/41804) simulating military operations with each other with the crossing of the Araks River and the use of all types of troops in a full-scale war.
The very active participation of the authorities in Baku in inciting separatist sentiments in the northwestern part of Iran and statements about the need to reunite "South" and "North" Azerbaijan gave rise to just fears among the leadership of the Islamic Republic.
After the resolution of the Karabakh issue, the Aliyev administration, with the support of Turkey, can easily start rocking (https://****/rybar/40658) an inter-ethnic crisis in Iran. This scenario forced the leadership in Tehran to act symmetrically.
Iranian special services have begun to work on the thesis of unification (https://****/rybar/40658) of the historical Iranian territories of Nakhichevan and Ancient Talyshstan. Telegram has created dozens of channels similar to each other, supporting the separation of the current Azerbaijani lands.
And the well-established interaction with Russia in various fields, including military-technical, economic, trade, allows us to hope for some support from the Russian Federation in this matter, even despite employment in Ukraine.
Despite the mutual unwillingness and unpreparedness for a full-fledged war with each other, the Iranian leadership may simply have no other option to protect their interests.
The forceful resolution of the conflict in Karabakh in favor of Azerbaijan will create the prospect of encircling the troubled northwestern part of Iran by hostile Turkic countries and separatists from Iraqi Kurdistan.
Therefore, now the government of the Islamic Republic by all means demonstrates its full readiness to defend the interests of the state, putting pressure on the Aliyev administration with statements and belongings of Karabakh, including creating alliances (https://****/rybar/42053) with other political forces and teaching (https ://****/rybar/41887) of Armenian servicemen.
#Azerbaijan #Armenia #Iran
@rybar
of our players were lucky/unlucky to face Mr Boris Gelfand from Israel and they didn't play.
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