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Iranian Chill Thread

Baloch separatists and Pakistani Taliban have joined forces. Recently the Taliban in Pakistan have been very active, attacking checkpoints, killing police, soldiers, and even managing to take some territory in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, by the Afghan border.

Last year when the Taliban took over Afghanistan, there were Pakistani nationalists who were ringing the alarm bells, but amid the jubilation of the Taliban victory, they were largely ignored and brushed under the rug. Now Pakistan has a serious problem on its hands.


 
An Iranian, Hadi Choopan, is named Mr Olympia 2022. He is the first bodybuilder from Iran and from Asia in the history of the competition to win the prestigious prize. He now joins the rank of such names as Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronnie Coleman.


An Iranian wrestler finally beats American Jordan Burroughs


Finally, holy shit.

Been following wrestling awhile and Jordan has had very few beat him, glad it was an Iranian that did him in.
 

Elon Musk says around 100 Starlinks now active in Iran​



Interesting when Elon Musk took over twitter, he was claiming that he would promote free speech. He then proceeds to ban an several accounts critical of him, including an account which was keeping track of his flights. It turns out that several years back Elon repeatedly made visits to Epsteins island. Oh well. The things money will buy. To be fair Musk claims that the account was doxxing him, providing real time information of his whereabouts, which he says endangers his and his families lives.
 
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Interesting commentary. I have to say I agree with this guy. I honestly can't blame China for the recent island spat. The Chinese are simply doing what is in their own national interest. The fact of the matter is that when it comes to China, Iran has very little leverage and that's the sad truth.

For China, trade with Iran makes up 1-2% of their export volume at the most. It's negligible and expendable. For Iran however, China is its largest trading partner, currently at 25-30%. It's Iran current establishment who have dug themselves into a deep hole.

Because of their failed policies, Iran can't trade with the Americans, who have the largest economy in the world, or with the EU, who have the second largest economy. This leaves Iran with very little options and basically no leverage and the Chinese know this.


Btw an update on China.

After 3 years of lockdowns, people in China reached a breaking point and finally began a mass protest movement. These were the first widespread protests in decades. In China it's apparently illegal to hold up a protest slogan/sign and so people held up a blank piece of paper. The Chinese government handled the protests pretty well, unlike Iran's government.

They quickly abolished all lock down measures. However going from one extreme to another with no preparation, has now led to severe problems in the healthcare sector. Hospitals are swamped and so badly overcrowded that hospitals are now administering IVs to dozens of patients at a time in hospital parking lots. There is also a shortage of cold medicine. Hoarding and price gouging by pharmacies have only exacerbated the issue.

To be fair this situation is still much better than what we saw in India. According to the Indian government 500,000 people died, but investigative journalists, human rights groups, even Indian Doctors on the ground claim that in reality millions died. One Indian Doctor in an interview staed that he believes that the real number is 20 times higher.

In any case, realistically the Chinese government should have gotten rid of the lockdowns soon after vaccinating 90% of their population. However they should have taken the proper precautions.

This video will give you a good idea of what is happening in China although the source is anti CPC (Communist Party of China)


This video was very upsetting to watch. It shows clips from the recent protests, testimonies from injured protestors and a Basij defector. It makes me sad to see this happening to Iran. Be warned it's anti IR (Islamic Republic) in tone as its from a western media outlet. If you don't like such material don't bother.

 
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When it comes to intelligence, I believe that the United States and NATO are really second to none. Just look at how they cracked the German Enigma machine in WW2 or deciphered Japans secret communications. This was really key to the allied victory.

Just yesterday Ukraine again struck Engels airbase deep inside Russia where nuclear capable bombers are kept. With these cross border attacks and the sinking of the Moscova, as well as drone attacks on Crimea, NATO is playing a key role providing weapons and intel.


 
Baloch separatists and Pakistani Taliban have joined forces. Recently the Taliban in Pakistan have been very active, attacking checkpoints, killing police, soldiers, and even managing to take some territory in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, by the Afghan border.

Last year when the Taliban took over Afghanistan, there were Pakistani nationalists who were ringing the alarm bells, but amid the jubilation of the Taliban victory, they were largely ignored and brushed under the rug. Now Pakistan has a serious problem on its hands.


The phrase "What goes around comes around" does spring to mind while reading this.....,ah well. 😏
 
When it comes to intelligence, I believe that the United States and NATO are really second to none.
Rubbish- why didnt they predict the road mobile ICBM launch that Iran did some months ago? How long did it take US to find Bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri?(didnt they just find Zawahiri this year?) US doesnt even have "good intelligence" on Iran's nuclear program as we speak- stop giving them too much credit.

Just also remember that despite NATO's intelligence help to Ukraine, Ukraine still loses 3-5 soldiers per Russian soldier killed- i would call that a war failure- Ukraine is on a countdown- no wonder its losing territory bit by bit daily..i've been watching the updates daily in Ukraine- their logistics is about to collapse seriously.

Also, no one should expect Ukraine's military to defend Kyiv effectively or successfully if Russian or/and Belarusian armies drive into Ukraine from Belarus....Ukrainian military IS NOT in a good state today, unlike how it was in February 2022...isnt it amazing the Ukraine war is almost a year...(and some dud heads on that thread can declare "Russia lost already")...by next February Ukrainian military and territory holdings will be in bad shape..they're already in worsening shape now.

I need to see more Arash 2s flying in Ukraine...for real...i'm desperate...what are y'all estimates of Iran's Shahed 136 and Arash 2 drones yearly production rate?
 
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I didn't say the US has flawless intelligence. They do however have excellent intelligence overall and they put a massive emphasis on intelligence. Being able to listen in on your enemies communications is like a boxer knowing exactly where the next punch will come from and which combination they will use.

Ukraine is losing more soldiers because Russia has alot more firepower among other advantages. Regardless The Ukrainians have done much better than many expected. Also they destroyed the Moskava and have been able to hit targets deep inside Russia multiple times, which caught the Russians off guard.

The Moskava was only sunk because of intelligence provided by the US/NATO and the Ukrainians claim that they used their own Neptune anti ship missiles BUT they very well could have used Harpoon missiles provided by NATO.

If the Afghans were as motivated as the Ukrainians then they likely wouldn't have lost so quickly to the Taliban. They had more numbers, better weapons, an airforce, not a great one but still the Taliban had old AKs and no airforce.

Yes US intelligence on Afghanistan was wrong and they were wrong about Russia taking Kiev in 72 hours but they were on point about when Russia would attack Ukraine. They were also able to find Osama Bin Laden and the leader of ISIS which was a difficult task to say the least.

Anyways Putin just gave Zelensky an ultimatum and as we speak large Russian army units are heading to the front. There's also alot of footage showing Russian tanks including T-90s and trucks, armored vehicles heading to Ukraine.



Honestly if the US would have attacked Ukraine the first target they would have hit would have been the bridges over the Dnieper. Approx 60% of Ukraine's land mass is on the west of the Dnieper and approx 40% in the east.

There are approx 20 bridges connecting eastern and western Ukraine over the Dnieper. If Russia were to destroy even the most significant bridges out of the 20, Ukraine is basically finished. Now a question comes to mind, why haven't the Russians done this already ?

I've put alot of thought into this and I believe that they haven't done so for the following reasons.

1) If the Russians do this, it will effectively cripple Ukraine for the foreseeable future. Now realistically this war might go on for several more months, it might even go on for several more years, but what about after that ? Because after the war Russia will be looking to once again trade with Ukraine for decades and decades to come and if those bridges are destroyed then this will surely hamper trade between the two nations.

2) Many of those bridges were built by Russian engineers and technicians/workers. I'm not sure if that matters but just something to mention

3) At the moment, every time for example a NATO provided howitzer breaks down, it has to be sent 1000 km to Poland and 1000 km back. This puts a huge strain on Ukrainian logistics. On the other hand with the bridges destroyed, Ukraine will likely not be able to send sufficient supplies to the east and then its downfall will be more or less inevitable.

4) If the Russians destroy all the bridges, then they won't be able to access the west of Zaporizhia or Dnipro, two large Ukrainian cities. Of course at this point it seems unlikely that the Russians will be able to take control of those cities but you never know what the future will bring.

5) There are millions of ethnic Russians that would be negatively affected. It would likely cause a humanitarian catastrophe. The west will be outraged and might even use it as an excuse to send troops ? Also it might turn public sentiment among the ethnic Russian population in cities like Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk against Russia ?

I don't know. Anyways that's all I can think of, but some analysts believe that its inevitable for Russia to target the bridges over the Dnieper as this war escalates. Now with the recent ultimatum given by Putin, this might very well have beeen the final warning before Putin gives the go ahead to his army to do whatever they deem necessary to win.

Rubbish- why didnt they predict the road mobile ICBM launch that Iran did some months ago? How long did it take US to find Bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri?(didnt they just find Zawahiri this year?) US doesnt even have "good intelligence" on Iran's nuclear program as we speak- stop giving them too much credit.

Just also remember that despite NATO's intelligence help to Ukraine, Ukraine still loses 3-5 soldiers per Russian soldier killed- i would call that a war failure- Ukraine is on a countdown- no wonder its losing territory bit by bit daily..i've been watching the updates daily in Ukraine- their logistics is about to collapse seriously.

Also, no one should expect Ukraine's military to defend Kyiv effectively or successfully if Russian or/and Belarusian armies drive into Ukraine from Belarus....Ukrainian military IS NOT in a good state today, unlike how it was in February 2022...isnt it amazing the Ukraine war is almost a year...(and some dud heads on that thread can declare "Russia lost already")...by next February Ukrainian military and territory holdings will be in bad shape..they're already in worsening shape now.

I need to see more Arash 2s flying in Ukraine...for real...i'm desperate...what are y'all estimates of Iran's Shahed 136 and Arash 2 drones yearly production rate?
 
This is a recent article posted on the Telegram channel of Rybar, the well known Russian military analyst and map maker. I think it's just pure speculation. The Armenian military is too weak and needs a massive overhaul, not to mention Iran's dire economic situation.

Wars are extremely costly. Just look at how Turkey was about to attack northern Syria again. It was all but certain but they didn't go through with it. People can speculate all they want but I believe it's because of their economic situation. Almost everytime Turkey has attacked northern Syria or been involved in any military conflict, the Lira tends to dip in value and right now Turkey cannot afford that and neither can Iran.

Of course if Iran's access to Armenia and the Caucasus is threatened, I don't see Iran sitting idly by and letting it happen, but if Turkey and Baku decide to invade Armenia, I believe that Iran will be the least of their worries. I don't see Russia tolerating such a move. Nagorno Karabakh was disputed territory, but Armenia proper is internationally recognized.

Right now Russia is embroiled in a war with Ukraine but that war won't last forever. Then there's the US and the west. Nancy Pelosi went Armenia several months back and while she was there she visited a monument to the Armenian genocide. I don't see the west sitting idle by and allowing Armenia to be conquered. I don't think they will use military force but its very likely that they will go ahead and impose crippling sanctions on Turkey and Baku.

If something does happen, Iran's best bet is to move troops up north while trying to negotiate a peaceful settlement. However if left with no other options, Iran should agree on a joint operation with Russia, so while the Russians maneuver from the north, Iran can focus on the south. If anything Iran will likely focus on Nakhchivan since it's an isolated enclave and because from a logistics standpoint Iran has a major advantage there. Remember Nakhchivan's entire southern strip stretches along Iran's northern border. Turkey however only has access to Nakhchivan through a very narrow mountain pass. If that mountain pass is compromised, then that's basically it.

Anyways I hope it never comes to that. Wars should always be a last resort when all diplomatic options have been thoroughly exhausted. As far as this article is concerned, I don't buy it but here it is for those who are interested in reading it.

**************************************************

🇦🇲🇦🇿🇮🇷 About Iran's possible involvement in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenian activist Mika Badalyan writes (https://****/mikayelbad/20940) that the only possible solution to the Artsakh conflict is a full-fledged war with the support of Iran.

In his opinion, Iranian rhetoric regarding Nagorno-Karabakh has changed in recent months. The recent speech of the Armenian political scientist Zhanna Vardanyan on the Iranian federal TV channel "Du" (شبکه دو) caused a furore in the Azerbaijani media segment and confirms the change of position towards the conflict in Tehran.

🔻 Why is this important?

Iran is a country with a strict political and religious order, where the activities of state television channels and the media are strictly regulated with a common state position on a particular issue.

The speech of the Armenian expert saying that Karabakh has always belonged to Armenia, as well as the accusations against the Azerbaijani authorities about the Armenian-phobic policy of genocide, would not have been aired without the consent of the government television and radio company Voice of the Islamic Republic.

🔻What influenced the decision of the Iranian authorities regarding the change of position on the Karabakh issue?

In previous years, Iranian and Azerbaijani mutual threats did not cross borders and were limited to a clear line that both sides observed, but now the situation is different.

The governments of both countries have already conducted exercises (https://****/rybar/41804) simulating military operations with each other with the crossing of the Araks River and the use of all types of troops in a full-scale war.

▪️The very active participation of the authorities in Baku in inciting separatist sentiments in the northwestern part of Iran and statements about the need to reunite "South" and "North" Azerbaijan gave rise to just fears among the leadership of the Islamic Republic.

After the resolution of the Karabakh issue, the Aliyev administration, with the support of Turkey, can easily start rocking (https://****/rybar/40658) an inter-ethnic crisis in Iran. This scenario forced the leadership in Tehran to act symmetrically.

Iranian special services have begun to work on the thesis of unification (https://****/rybar/40658) of the historical Iranian territories of Nakhichevan and Ancient Talyshstan. Telegram has created dozens of channels similar to each other, supporting the separation of the current Azerbaijani lands.

▪️ And the well-established interaction with Russia in various fields, including military-technical, economic, trade, allows us to hope for some support from the Russian Federation in this matter, even despite employment in Ukraine.

🔻Despite the mutual unwillingness and unpreparedness for a full-fledged war with each other, the Iranian leadership may simply have no other option to protect their interests.

The forceful resolution of the conflict in Karabakh in favor of Azerbaijan will create the prospect of encircling the troubled northwestern part of Iran by hostile Turkic countries and separatists from Iraqi Kurdistan.

Therefore, now the government of the Islamic Republic by all means demonstrates its full readiness to defend the interests of the state, putting pressure on the Aliyev administration with statements and belongings of Karabakh, including creating alliances (https://****/rybar/42053) with other political forces and teaching (https ://****/rybar/41887) of Armenian servicemen.
#Azerbaijan #Armenia #Iran
@rybar
 
Random photos of Iran in the last days of 2022:

Babolsar beach northern Iran
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Tehran views
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Persepolis
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New city of Pardis in a winter day
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Sheeps going for a walk..In Talesh (so well behaved!.. all in one line following the farmer..lol)
sheep_talesh.jpg
 

Elon Musk says around 100 Starlinks now active in Iran​



Interesting when Elon Musk took over twitter, he was claiming that he would promote free speech. He then proceeds to ban an several accounts critical of him, including an account which was keeping track of his flights. It turns out that several years back Elon repeatedly made visits to Epsteins island. Oh well. The things money will buy. To be fair Musk claims that the account was doxxing him, providing real time information of his whereabouts, which he says endangers his and his families lives.
Good news , soon ISI will be forced to stop this shit-tera-net

Elon Musk says around 100 Starlinks now active in Iran​



Interesting when Elon Musk took over twitter, he was claiming that he would promote free speech. He then proceeds to ban an several accounts critical of him, including an account which was keeping track of his flights. It turns out that several years back Elon repeatedly made visits to Epsteins island. Oh well. The things money will buy. To be fair Musk claims that the account was doxxing him, providing real time information of his whereabouts, which he says endangers his and his families lives.
Good news , soon ISI will be force to stop this shit-tera-net
 
World rapid chess 2022
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solo ranking Parham Maghsoodloo ends up with rank 17 and Amin Tabatabaei at rank 27.almost all Iranian players perform better than their ranks before games.
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Common man , two :ashamed: of our players were lucky/unlucky to face Mr Boris Gelfand from Israel and they didn't play.

Ofcourse this is not personal issue related to GM Boris Gelfand. i'm sure he is great at chess but issue is related to Palestine and .....
 

2 months ago ^

Parham Maghsoodloo: "Next time, if I play Magnus in an individual tournament, I will risk!"

today Mr maghsoodloo played with Magnus and he could play defensive and going for draw with black but he risked it, played not defensive and lost the game :).

If you are playing any sport and play it to draw the game you just doing it wrong.
 
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