Insider Info on Future of Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (J-11, J-15, J-16 and FC-31)

[S10]

News from dyztc (insider) regarding current projects going on at SAC:

• There won't be any major aerodynamic modification for J-16. Air force wishes to preserve the flight characteristics of Su-27 family. Changes will mostly be internal.
• There is a new variant of WS-10 being developed, but it's not the same as the one currently in use by J-20.
• Improved engine will come with a mature FADEC.
• More composites and radar absorbing materials will be used on J-16.
• Enhanced radar and avionics suite are a given.
• J-11D program exists, but it's mostly an upgrade package for existing J-11B. He does not expect more than 50 new airframes will be produced.
• All existing J-10, J-11 and J-15 are getting their AL-31 engines replaced by WS-10. Current production rate of WS-10 is unable to keep up with demand. China wishes to replace all imported engines in near future.
• PLAAF has expressed interest in FC-31, but the program is progressing very slowly. Don't expect FC-31 to be cancelled.

Source: https://lt.cjdby.net/thread-2640989-1-1.html

 

[Akasa]

DZYTC forfeited all of his/her credibility when he claimed that he saw the prototype of the J-35 fighter back in May or June of this year.

Now he's trying to salvage his reputation by spitting out whatever propaganda he has.

 

[Figaro]

News from dyztc (insider) regarding current projects going on at SAC:

• There won't be any major aerodynamic modification for J-16. Air force wishes to preserve the flight characteristics of Su-27 family. Changes will mostly be internal.
• There is a new variant of WS-10 being developed, but it's not the same as the one currently in use by J-20.
• Improved engine will come with a mature FADEC.
• More composites and radar absorbing materials will be used on J-16.
• Enhanced radar and avionics suite are a given.
• J-11D program exists, but it's mostly an upgrade package for existing J-11B. He does not expect more than 50 new airframes will be produced.
• All existing J-10, J-11 and J-15 are getting their AL-31 engines replaced by WS-10. Current production rate of WS-10 is unable to keep up with demand. China wishes to replace all imported engines in near future.
• PLAAF has expressed interest in FC-31, but the program is progressing very slowly. Don't expect FC-31 to be cancelled.

Source: https://lt.cjdby.net/thread-2640989-1-1.html

Is the new WS-10 variant the one that is going to feature TVC? I didn't expect the PLAAF to replace all existing J-10s, J-11s, and J-15s with WS-10s though ... that is quite the news and a bunch of planes. No wonder why the production rate of the WS-10 cannot keep up with demand, that is hundreds of engines to replace, not to mention new engines for the J-20, J-10C, J-15 Batch 3, and the J-16s.

 

[S10]

Is the new WS-10 variant the one that is going to feature TVC? I didn't expect the PLAAF to replace all existing J-10s, J-11s, and J-15s with WS-10s though ... that is quite the news and a bunch of planes. No wonder why the production rate of the WS-10 cannot keep up with demand, that is hundreds of engines to replace, not to mention new engines for the J-20, J-10C, J-15 Batch 3, and the J-16s.

I expect J-10C, J-11D and J-20 to have TVC with their WS-10 engines. As J-16 is a strike plane, I don't think it's necessary. I wonder why they are trying to replace all AL-31, since I haven't heard anything about potential import disruption. They're in quite a hurry too from the looks of it.

 

[Figaro]

I expect J-10C, J-11D and J-20 to have TVC with their WS-10 engines. As J-16 is a strike plane, I don't think it's necessary. I wonder why they are trying to replace all AL-31, since I haven't heard anything about potential import disruption. They're in quite a hurry too from the looks of it.

My guess is that the WS-10 is now significantly better than the AL-31 in terms of reliability/maintenance. After all, quite a few J-10 crashes were due to AL-31 failures. Their MTBO and lifespan definitely are not good either so it would make sense why the PLAAF would want to replace with the latest WS-10. Also, the WS-10 probably has much better performance than the AL-31 in terms of thrust, TWR and specific fuel consumption as well.

 

[lcloo]

They are not going to replace all Russian engines on J10, J11 and J15 at once. New domestic engines will replace those AL-31s only when their economic life span are expired.

Changing all J10, J11 and J15s to WS-10 would be done in timely schedule over a period of more than a decade as some recent production J10Cs with AL-31 are may be a year or less in service.

 

[Figaro]

They are not going to replace all Russian engines on J10, J11 and J15 at once. New domestic engines will replace those AL-31s only when their economic life span are expired.

Changing all J10, J11 and J15s to WS-10 would be done in timely schedule over a period of more than a decade as some recent production J10Cs with AL-31 are may be a year or less in service.

But dyztc said "China wishes to replace all imported engines in near future." This implies quite a sense of urgency for whatever reason ... I don't think a span of over a decade would be considered near future at all.

 

[lcloo]

But dyztc said "China wishes to replace all imported engines in near future." This implies quite a sense of urgency for whatever reason ... I don't think a span of over a decade would be considered near future at all.

Chinese mentality regarding time is quite different from others. They always refer to a plan over several decades or even century (example reunification of Taiwan, and assimilation of Hongkong and Macau into Mainland system over 50 years period). This is a significant contrast with most Westerners especially in politics and military.

Referring to a period of a decade as near future is not far fetch in China if you look carefully at Chinese history and philosophy.

Also PLAAF and other branches of PLA are known to keep their equipment (including jet engines in this case) far longer than most countries, example J7, J8, Y5 light transport, CJ6 basic trainer etc.

So despite the wishes to replace them all in near future, they have to be careful not to retire all those jet engines still having many years of useful life spans.

 

[_NOBODY_]

If PLAAF is indeed interested in FC-31 then why is the project progressing so slowly?

 

[Figaro]

If PLAAF is indeed interested in FC-31 then why is the project progressing so slowly?

Just because the PLAAF has expressed interest does not mean it will certainly adopt the FC-31, which also happens to be a privately funded project by AVIC. IMO, the J-20 is a much better and more suitable land based fighter aircraft than the FC-31 is. Having said that, it looks like all the FC-31s efforts are directed towards carrier aviation at this point with the introduction of the J-35 next year. It will be interesting to see if the J-35 is going to be adopted by the PLANAF.

Chinese mentality regarding time is quite different from others. They always refer to a plan over several decades or even century (example reunification of Taiwan, and assimilation of Hongkong and Macau into Mainland system over 50 years period). This is a significant contrast with most Westerners especially in politics and military.

Referring to a period of a decade as near future is not far fetch in China if you look carefully at Chinese history and philosophy.

Also PLAAF and other branches of PLA are known to keep their equipment (including jet engines in this case) far longer than most countries, example J7, J8, Y5 light transport, CJ6 basic trainer etc.

So despite the wishes to replace them all in near future, they have to be careful not to retire all those jet engines still having many years of useful life spans.

Yes but to be fair, it would make sense for the PLAAF to upgrade their existing equipment, especially since the J-10s and J-11As are not too old. They already upgraded the first J-11B batch to WS-10 this year so I really don't see them not upgrading the old J-11As and J-10s to the WS-10. Having said that I agree this is a gradual process, which is why I'm surprised by this leak saying the PLAAF wants to replace all imported engines in the near future.

 

[_NOBODY_]

Just because the PLAAF has expressed interest does not mean it will certainly adopt the FC-31, which also happens to be a privately funded project by AVIC. IMO, the J-20 is a much better and more suitable land based fighter aircraft than the FC-31 is. Having said that, it looks like all the FC-31s efforts are directed towards carrier aviation at this point with the introduction of the J-35 next year. It will be interesting to see if the J-35 is going to be adopted by the PLANAF.

It is possible but don't expect Chengdu to sit around and do nothing. I am confident that Chengdu will launch a new 5th gen fighter to compete against J-35, it could be cost effective compared to J-20 which would allow this aircraft to become the backbone PLAAF.

 

[FuturePAF]

It is possible but don't expect Chengdu to sit around and do nothing. I am confident that Chengdu will launch a new 5th gen fighter to compete against J-35, it could be cost effective compared to J-20 which would allow this aircraft to become the backbone PLAAF.

Would the PLAAF be interested in a single engine J-20, once the WS-15 is mature? Could feature nearly everything in common with the J-20, except slightly smaller and only one WS-15 engine.

 

[Deino]

News from dyztc (insider) regarding current projects going on at SAC:
...

• J-11D program exists, but it's mostly an upgrade package for existing J-11B. He does not expect more than 50 new airframes will be produced.
• All existing J-10, J-11 and J-15 are getting their AL-31 engines replaced by WS-10. Current production rate of WS-10 is unable to keep up with demand. China wishes to replace all imported engines in near future.

...
Source: https://lt.cjdby.net/thread-2640989-1-1.html

Honestly, that all sounds too good and even if I won't exclude it as an option there are certain items which I rate as unlikely up to impossible:

• I see no hint that the J-11BG package is in fact "an upgrade package for existing J-11B" to J-11D standard since the D is a vastly different bird and the BG far away from a D. Alone the radome and as such radar is too different and we haven't seen any newbuilt fighter Flanker since yeras. IMO production has ended.
• IMO the chance of "All existing J-10, J-11 and J-15 are getting their AL-31 engines replaced by WS-10" is nil. Most of all due to the given reason but also since it will surely require certain modifications especially to the single engined J-10A/AS series.

As such I rate his report indeed more - and again similar to his claim he saw the J-35 prototype already - as some lame attempt to gain interest, but nothing more.