Indian Diplomat's Take On: Pakistan's Yemen War

[DESERT FIGHTER]

And there are senior members, along with TT and Mods on here that are firmly against any sort of intervention, or alliance.

Pakistan IS in a position to tell KSA no. It's simple, really, all Pakistan has to do is point to the TTP. Pakistan's top decision makers have already said that they are not sending any troops, at least not yet. Pakistani citizens are still trapped in Yemen, and intervention would jeopardize their lives, and would also weaken Pakistan's domestic security situation.

Unless the Saudis can guarantee that the ttp will no longer be a problem, even the military will be resist KSA's attempts to drag Pakistan into their war.

That's already happening .... The defence committee itself is divided .. I totally agree with you.. At max they might send a token force but that's all.

 

[Daneshmand]

What is the status of support of insurgency by Oman Qatar and bahrain in Balochistan. Is that threat eliminated?
I have asked this question a while ago and you didnt respond.

He is a Takfiri supporter. He will not respond. He and his ilks want to turn Pakistan into a Takfiri Qilla.

 

[Sky lord]

This could be a good thing for Pak. The country spends a lot of money on its military and it does have a competitive advantage, so why not hire it out and make some money ? Especially nOw that the US aid is dropping and has become very conditional.

 

[Skywalker]

This could be a good thing for Pak. The country spends a lot of money on its military and it does have a competitive advantage, so why not hire it out and make some money ? Especially nOw that the US aid is dropping and has become very conditional.

And here comes another Indian with the usual set of mind( if he has one) and start telling us what to do and what we expect.

 

[Rain]

Lets us develop some rules of engagement on this defense forum:
I request Moderators etc to not to allow every thread into Pak-India war, teach members to aviod derailing thread into India vs Pak, if they dont learn, kick them out.

 

[Assange]

Guys everyone know Pakistan and Saudi are allies...If Saudi is entering in a war then Pakistan will definitely enter into a war not directly but indirectly for sure by providing Saudis the supports that they needed...


But my only question why didn't Saudis bomb ISIS ? Is it because they both are Sunni ?

(Whenever I say Sunni I get a giggle coz in South Indian language Sunni means Penis) Sorry for saying it but I could not stop myself....

 

[Daneshmand]

This could be a good thing for Pak. The country spends a lot of money on its military and it does have a competitive advantage, so why not hire it out and make some money ? Especially nOw that the US aid is dropping and has become very conditional.

I don't think Saudis will pay them though. Not to the tune that would change the conditions of Pakistan.

Pakistan spent about 6.5 billion dollars on its military in 2014. Saudis by comparison spent 80 billion dollars on their military in 2014 (ranked third globally after US and China): List of countries by military expenditures - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Pakistan foreign reserves on average stands at 15 billion dollars. Saudis foreign reserves stand at about 800 billion dollars.

Pakistan's national budget is about 40 billion dollars out of which over 42% is only for paying interests and servicing the loans, leaving just a small amount about 39% to run the country (after paying for military spending and debt servicing): Debt servicing to consume 42.1pc budget expenditure - thenews.com.pk

Saudi Arabia's national budget is about 230 billion dollars. No debt.

For having any effect, Pakistan would have to charge Saudis about 350 billion dollars in order to take part in this quagmire. About 70 billion dollars to pay off Pakistan's loans completely, and the rest, 280 billion dollars to upgrade infrastructure, education, health and economic sectors.

For Saudis it is a small amount. In addition to 800 billion dollars of foreign reserves in cash, Saudis also have trillions of dollars, in the form of foreign investment mainly in Western countries as well as keep making huge money off the oil sales and pilgrims.

For Pakistan it is a huge amount, which can lift them out of perpetual poverty.

Will Saudis pay?

Absolutely not. At most they would pay one or two billion dollars all of which will disappear into corrupt pockets. The public will never see any of it by a long shot, except in the form of more extremism and penetration of Saudi ideology among Pakistanis.

All Saudis require is for Pakistanis to get killed in Yemen as part of a long term Saudi game. For free.

 

[Sky lord]

I don't think Saudis will pay them though. Not to the tune that would change the conditions of Pakistan.

Pakistan spent about 6.5 billion dollars on its military in 2014. Saudis by comparison spent 80 billion dollars on their military in 2014 (ranked third globally after US and China): List of countries by military expenditures - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Pakistan foreign reserves on average stands at 15 billion dollars. Saudis foreign reserves stand at about 800 billion dollars.

Pakistan's national budget is about 40 billion dollars out of which over 42% is only for paying interests and servicing the loans, leaving just a small amount to run the country (after paying for military spending): Debt servicing to consume 42.1pc budget expenditure - thenews.com.pk

Saudi Arabia's national budget is about 230 billion dollars.

For having any effect, Pakistan would have to charge Saudis about 350 billion dollars in order to take part in this quagmire. About 70 billion dollars to pay off Pakistan's loans completely, and the rest, 275 billion dollars to upgrade infrastructure, education, health and economic sectors.

For Saudis it is a small amount. In addition to 800 billion dollars of foreign reserves in cash, Saudis also have trillions of dollars, in the form of foreign investment mainly in Western countries as well as keep making huge money off the oil sales and pilgrims.

For Pakistan it is a huge amount, which can lift them out of perpetual poverty.

Will Saudis pay?

Absolutely not. At most they would pay one or two billion dollars all of which will disappear into corrupt pockets. The public will never see any of it by a long shot, except in the form of more extremism and penetration of Saudi ideology among Pakistanis.

All Saudis require is for Pakistanis to get killed in Yemen as part of a long term Saudi game. For free.

Saudis May spend a lot more on defence but presumably that is for very high tech stuff, I am thinking that such high end equipment only has a limited use against a widespread popular insurgency. You would need boots on the ground and men going almost door to door and the Pak army does have a lot of experience in that and would be very good. I think they were effective in Bahrain right ?

How much to charge is another question, there is no way that Saudi would pay 300 billion and they don't need to, there are other ways to squeeze Pakistan. I think probably it could settle into the 7 to 10 billion range if it is a long term war. That is still a lot of money, nothing to be sneezed at. Pak may need another IMF bail out in a few years this could prevent that and put Pak on a growth path again like in the Mush years.

My point is that you get fruits from the plants you take care off, the Pak army has been well taken care off, so why not sell some mangoes ?

Of course, I agree, it is up to the Pakistanis to decide what they want to do.

 

[kaku1]

This Pakistan Defence, admins & most of the mods are Pakistanis. Don't expect fair treatment.

For decades Pak remain in dictatorship, "shoot the guy".

 

[Daneshmand]

Saudis May spend a lot more on defence but presumably that is for very high tech stuff, I am thinking that such high end equipment only has a limited use against a widespread popular insurgency. You would need boots on the ground and men going almost door to door and the Pak army does have a lot of experience in that and would be very good. I think they were effective in Bahrain right ?

How much to charge is another question, there is no way that Saudi would pay 300 billion and they don't need to, there are other ways to squeeze Pakistan. I think probably it could settle into the 7 to 10 billion range if it is a long term war. That is still a lot of money, nothing to be sneezed at. Pak may need another IMF bail out in a few years this could prevent that and put Pak on a growth path again like in the Mush years.

My point is that you get fruits from the plants you take care off, the Pak army has been well taken care off, so why not sell some mangoes ?

Of course, I agree, it is up to the Pakistanis to decide what they want to do.

There is not even a single example in modern military history, of a foreign force having been able to completely crush a local armed insurgency. Not even US could do it. Not even USSR.

In Bahrain, the situation is different, since the insurgency is not armed. Iran could change the situation but for now has decided not to. Probably because Iran sees Bahrain as the last nail to be hammered into Saudi royal family's coffin. Not the first.

That is why for Pakistan, there is no strategic gain to be had in Yemen. Only monetary benefit.

That 7 or 10 billion dollar you mentioned, will not change Pakistan's destiny. Pakistan has had these kind of payments all along its history. Whether when they had sent soldiers on the order of US to fight in Korea of 1950's or when they were the Saudi-American proxy against USSR in Afghanistan or when they became an American proxy in war on terror.

Now Pakistan becoming a Saudi proxy in Yemen, will not change the destiny of Pakistan if it is paid only 7-10 billion dollars.

By comparison, Egypt which has itself a geostrategic interest in Yemen in the form of the choke-point of Bab-al-Mandeb, which has the potential to kill the only Egyptian resource asset, the Suez Canal, has been paid tens of billions of dollars by Saudis just to provide a token force and a lip service in political support for Saudis in Yemen. Similar is the case of Turkey, which is providing lip service to Saudi cause, while Saudis and other Arabs have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in Turkey and provided tens of billions of dollars easy finance to Turkish economy.

This is the moment of truth for Pakistan.

If the "brother" is rich and wants you to do the dying part on his behalf, then this brother surely would have no problem to share a very small part of its wealth with your family.

After all what is 350 billion dollars for a country that keeps 800 billion dollars cash in foreign reserves with no debt, trillions of dollars in foreign investment in Western countries, and with about 320 billion barrels of oil equivalent in gas and oil reserves, plus making billions of dollars off the pilgrims.

These are what "your brother" is doing while he is asking you to go and die in his place in Yemen without even paying for the family you leave behind:

Saudi Arabia plans a $100 billion mega-city to help end its oil dependence | KUOW News and Information : The Saudi government says it will build a brand-new city on its western coast the size of Washington, DC — at a cost of about $100 billion. It's not imaginatively named — it's known as the King Abdullah Economic City, pronouned "cake" (KAEC) for short...

Riyadh's $22.5b Metro a ‘race against time’ |GulfNews.com : Saudi Arabia’s capital is in a race against time to complete its $22.5 billion metro system within four years, a senior official said on Wednesday...

Saudis have been the largest weapon importer globally in 2014 and in the past 4 decades have imported hundreds of billions of dollars of weapons: Saudi Arabia becomes biggest defence equipment importer with $9.8bn set to be spent this year | The National

 

[SBD-3]

Pakistan is in no position to say no. All the reasons you wrote go out the window when the Saud dangle a couple dollars in front of the appropriate 'leaders'.



Free Gas for Pakistani Fighter jets landing in Iran.
Military & Diplomatic support in 71.
Cobra Gunships and various material support against the Baloch uprising. (Iran supplied Spare Parts for Pakistan's American War Machine everytime)
Preferential Oil Pricing.
Re-establishing diplomatic ties with Afghanistan.
Anti-Soviet Occupation.
Support's Pakistan's claim to Kashmir.
Supported Pakistan's Nuclear Program.

But you're welcome to forget that since Iran supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban.

Like I said before Iran was indeed a friend of Pakistan. But that was in Shah's regime. The Mullah revolution has created the epicenter of sectarian conflict in the next door. The Iran's obsession with sectarian geopolitics created a red spot in the region. Iran's international politics has been driven by exclusively for establishing Shia regimes across ME. From Afghanistan to Yamen, Iran maintains a policy of maintaining shia assets. Hammas is the only exception which Iran maintains to keep a check on Israelis. Whenever Israelis try to adopt an aggressive approach against Iran, Hammas comes live in Ghaza and West bank to engage Isarelis. KSA on the other hand has always juiced the assets to much that they became independent of Saudis. It happened with Taliban and the same happened with ISIS. While Iran and KSA both use sectraian basis what makes Iran more successful in maintaining proxies is that 1)They choose the most backward allies 2) They keep them handicapped so that not only they remain aligned with Iran but continue to depend upon Iran. That's why you would see Iran never distributing cash but the weapons or developing the sustained earning capability like ISIS did after capturing the Oil fields which made their fairly independent of KSA. You'll never see any development in Ghaza or Hezb dominated areas but only weapons and talk of revolution.

 

[Daneshmand]

come on dude.you think iraqis & iranians are so stupid to but your non aligned response?

you did nothing because america supported Iraq and hated Iran,you should have gone and helped Iran because they are much closer to the subcontinent than Arabs.You did nothing and the Iranians got the message.

The funny thing is, when US ordered Pakistan in 1991 to be part of Operation Desert Storm, Pakistan immediately complied and sent Pakistani soldiers on the mission to attack Iraq.

This guy is lying that they did not help Iran because they had a "policy" to be neutral. Lying through his teeth. Shamelessly.

 

[Sky lord]

There is not even a single example in modern military history, of a foreign force having been able to completely crush a local armed insurgency. Not even US could do it. Not even USSR.

In Bahrain, the situation is different, since the insurgency is not armed. Iran could change the situation but for now has decided not to. Probably because Iran sees Bahrain as the last nail to be hammered into Saudi royal family's coffin. Not the first.

That is why for Pakistan, there is no strategic gain to be had in Yemen. Only monetary benefit.

That 7 or 10 billion dollar you mentioned, will not change Pakistan's destiny. Pakistan has had these kind of payments all along its history. Whether when they had sent soldiers on the order of US to fight in Korea of 1950's or when they were the Saudi-American proxy against USSR in Afghanistan or when they became an American proxy in war on terror.

Now Pakistan becoming a Saudi proxy in Yemen, will not change the destiny of Pakistan if it is paid only 7-10 billion dollars.

By comparison, Egypt which has itself a geostrategic interest in Yemen in the form of the choke-point of Bab-al-Mandeb, which has the potential to kill the only Egyptian resource asset, the Suez Canal, has been paid tens of billions of dollars by Saudis just to provide a token force and a lip service in political support for Saudis in Yemen. Similar is the case of Turkey, which is providing lip service to Saudi cause, while Saudis and other Arabs have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in Turkey and provided tens of billions of dollars easy finance to Turkish economy.

This is the moment of truth for Pakistan.

If the "brother" is rich and wants you to do the dying part on his behalf, then this brother surely would have no problem to share a very small part of its wealth with your family.

After all what is 350 billion dollars for a country that keeps 800 billion dollars cash in foreign reserves with no debt, trillions of dollars in foreign investment in Western countries, and with about 320 billion barrels of oil equivalent in gas and oil reserves, plus making billions of dollars off the pilgrims.

These are what "your brother" is doing while he is asking you to go and die in his place in Yemen without even paying for the family you leave behind:

Saudi Arabia plans a $100 billion mega-city to help end its oil dependence | KUOW News and Information : The Saudi government says it will build a brand-new city on its western coast the size of Washington, DC — at a cost of about $100 billion. It's not imaginatively named — it's known as the King Abdullah Economic City, pronouned "cake" (KAEC) for short...

Riyadh's $22.5b Metro a ‘race against time’ |GulfNews.com : Saudi Arabia’s capital is in a race against time to complete its $22.5 billion metro system within four years, a senior official said on Wednesday...

Saudis have been the largest weapon importer globally in 2014 and in the past 4 decades have imported hundreds of billions of dollars of weapons: Saudi Arabia becomes biggest defence equipment importer with $9.8bn set to be spent this year | The National

I would agree with you that it is difficult for a foreign force to completely crush a local insurgency, however, I don't think that is what they are trying to do. All they want is to weaken the rebellion enough to re install their guy back in the presidential palace and then everything goes back to as it used to be which they can live with. This objective can be met, US did it over and over in Latin America and Saudi is much closer geographically and culturally to Yemen.

What a buyer CAN pay and what they WILL pay have different dynamics. You pay as little as you need to, not a penny more. It is up to the Pakistanis to drive their bargain, but it won't be too high. I may be wrong but I think Pakistan has an agreement that should Saudi ever need a nuclear weapon, they are willing to provide one, if this is so then it is much more serious. If Saudi ever uses nuclear weapons, presumably it would be against Iran and the blow back from that into Pakistani territory would be pretty serious. Of course they would blame this on the RSS

In your opinion why are you so concerned by Pak boots in Yemen? Is it because you see it as anti Shia or is there another concern? I am just trying to learn, that's all.

 

[Daneshmand]

In your opinion why are you so concerned by Pak boots in Yemen? Is it because you see it as anti Shia or is there another concern? I am just trying to learn, that's all.

The only concern is the Takfiri elements becoming so strong in Pakistan (as evidently they are becoming) that they do a coup or revolution taking over Pakistan's military and the nuke stockpiles.

Of course, Iran will be the first target. No doubt about that. But the second target will be you and China.

If you guys could think big, you would stop trying to be a US poodle and instead made up with China. It would have enormous benefits for the region. And the world.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

Like I said before Iran was indeed a friend of Pakistan. But that was in Shah's regime. The Mullah revolution has created the epicenter of sectarian conflict in the next door. The Iran's obsession with sectarian geopolitics created a red spot in the region. Iran's international politics has been driven by exclusively for establishing Shia regimes across ME. From Afghanistan to Yamen, Iran maintains a policy of maintaining shia assets. Hammas is the only exception which Iran maintains to keep a check on Israelis. Whenever Israelis try to adopt an aggressive approach against Iran, Hammas comes live in Ghaza and West bank to engage Isarelis. KSA on the other hand has always juiced the assets to much that they became independent of Saudis. It happened with Taliban and the same happened with ISIS. While Iran and KSA both use sectraian basis what makes Iran more successful in maintaining proxies is that 1)They choose the most backward allies 2) They keep them handicapped so that not only they remain aligned with Iran but continue to depend upon Iran. That's why you would see Iran never distributing cash but the weapons or developing the sustained earning capability like ISIS did after capturing the Oil fields which made their fairly independent of KSA. You'll never see any development in Ghaza or Hezb dominated areas but only weapons and talk of revolution.

Perhaps the State should get control over terrorists who want to cause sectarian conflict in Pakistan. Then perhaps the Shia in Pakistan will rather than themselves engaging against the State will support the State?

Perhaps you should visit Lebanon? Well, not now, most of the country is filled with refugees.

The funny thing is, when US ordered Pakistan in 1991 to be part of Operation Desert Storm, Pakistan immediately complied and sent Pakistani soldiers on the mission to attack Iraq.

You're wrong, the Saudi's requested Pakistani troops, while Pakistan considered the request the Saudis had second guesses over their combat effectiveness against Saddam's 8-year hardened troops, the Saudis then went to the US.

And Pakistan did send troops but only in a symbolic measure, they were deployed to relieve Saudi troops guarding the Yemen border.

Listen to this guy --> @Daneshmand