Indian Diplomat's Take On: Pakistan's Yemen War

[Umair Nawaz]

If a Pakistani asks the question what is your response ?

i will leave that for my own people.

 

[Daneshmand]

Is this why the Saudis bought 150 Al-Khalid Tanks??

And why should our soldiers die in someone else' war??

Is this a repeat of the Afghan-Soviet war scenario??

Some Pakistanis here are cheering this. If we have joined in this conflict then this decision of ours has damaged our credibility as a neutral Islamic country which could have been relied upon in initiating negotiations.

Watch us complain afterward "oh, we didn't know, it was our leaders, they dragged us into this mess, blah, blah, blah..."

1- Maybe. They certainly can afford and have access to much better tanks available on international markets. And at any rate 150 is not that great of a number, it would hardly make an armored brigade or two. But let me be clear that having economic or any other type of relationship is not a bad thing. It only becomes bad, when one side wants to give the other side, the short end of the stick.

2- Not necessarily. It depends on people of Pakistan what they want. They will get what they want eventually. Pakistan in 60's and 70's was on its way to become a progressive and prosperous nation. In fact another country which was one of the poorest nations on earth, borrowed and implemented Pakistan's economic development plan and has become quite a prosperous nation (South Korea). In 1980's when Pakistan was busy fighting someone else's war and hording on backward Saudi ideology, South Korea was working on Pakistan's economic development plan. They got what they wanted (Prosperity). You got what you wanted (Takfirism).

3- The parallels are of course, striking. On many levels. But there are differences as well. It is certainly not Pakistan's war. If Pakistan takes part in it, that will be only for placating Saudis. But the differences are even more dangerous. Yemen is a very complex country. Take this scenario among many: Zaidis there have strong bonds with Ismailis who live across the border from them in Saudi Arabia (living as second class citizens) on a territory Saudi Arabia snatched from Yemen. If a protracted civil war with participation of Pakistan is happening there, meanwhile Ismailis rise up in Saudi Arabia , the strategic implications for Pakistan will be dramatic and quite dark frankly. If Saudis with or without Pakistan's help brutally put down Ismaili uprising there, what will happen to Ismailis in Pakistan? Will a new organization like the ones attacking 12er Shias rise and will be attacking Ismailis? What will be the response of Ismaili community around the world? Agha Khan has considerable influence around the world specially in West, so which strings he will pull then to put pressure on Pakistan? Let's not forget that the founder of Pakistan was an Ismaili himself and Pakistan being a young and ideological state built on image of its founding father, what will become of Pakistan's foundation?

At the end of the day, Pakistanis will have to decide between two things. Whether they are Pakistanis and are acting on behalf of Pakistan's interests, or they are Saudis/Jordanian/Egyptians acting on interests of these.

I wanted to do a bit of research and write up and post here, a proper cost analysis for Pakistan taking part in this war, thinking it might help Pakistanis see the truth. But it is not really worth my time after seeing all this cheer-leading.

Some points that would have been interesting if I had written this analysis would have been the parallel of what Pakistan is about to do with what US did in Operation Desert Storm (Saudis have even named their current operation after the US one).

Back then, in 1991, Saudi Arabia had not been invaded. A neighboring country had fallen into hands of a force that Saudis were feeling threatened by (Saddam). Saudi immediately begged US to help them restore order in this neighboring country by ejecting the force threatening Saudi interests. US obliged. But the way US billed its services was interesting.

US billed Saudis separate, Kuwaitis separate, and even billed Iraqis for the cost of war in the form of forced reparations. In addition US got guarantees from Saudis to keep the price of oil at historical lows for over a decade, which pushed Saudi state into austerity measures (times were tough at that time in Saudi Arabia and you can ask people about it, who were there at the time).

Then US also made sure that Saudis would invest all their money in US or Western countries, buy huge quantities of arms from US, most of which were useless to Saudi needs. As well as Saudi Arabia continue to trade its oil only in US dollars and make sure that the juiciest commercial contracts went to only American and Western companies not Chinese, Russian or Brazilian etc etc. The cumulative bill which was handed down to these Arabs was in trillions of dollars. Yes, trillions of dollars.

But it was not all. US also got military bases in the region which to date, remain in use by US military.

Today, Saudi Arabia is also feeling "threatened" by a force in a neighboring country. And as always needs a partner who is ready to fight and put to rest the fears of Saud family. This time, Americans are tired and British do not have the same might when they had helped this treasonous family against Ottomans. The rest of the Arab world for instance the Egyptians and Jordanians are incapable themselves and are cheer-leading Saudis to jump into it all, hoping Saudis to get a severe beating and getting humiliated (yes, they are jealous as well as see the opportunity to dig some money out of the deep Saudi pockets).

This is where Pakistan comes in. Ethics, morality and final Judgement day aside, there are several ways to play this game. A game of high stakes.

One way would be to cheer-lead Saudis and procrastinate and charge Saudis all the while doing nothing of substance, committing nothing of sort of going to seriously fight as Egypt is doing (they have received several tens of billions from Saudis and want even more). Another way would be flat refusal (as Oman did). Another way would be to become a negotiator, arguing in good faith for peace (China is doing that already and right now Pakistan instead of standing with this old friend, is actually going against China). Another way would be for Pakistan to go in completely and do whatever Saudis expect of Pakistan to do (as US did for Saudis in 1991).

But the worse choice that Pakistan can make, is to go in completely and not charge Saudis the same amount Americans charged Saudis. Fighting a war against fellow Muslims, killing them for the benefit of corrupt Saud royal family all for emotionalism. Since then, you will not only lose your donya but also Akherat.

And to those who say that we are only protecting holy places in Saudi Arabia, this question must be put: that where were they when the graves of Prophets Peace be upon Them, were being bulldozed in Syria by affiliates and proxies of Saudis, when dead bodies of Sahaba were being pulled out of their graves and blown up and when these scums were erasing the entire heritage of Muslim lands? At that time, no body heard even one pip out of these cheer-leaders. Not to mention that, Houthis are as Muslim as any one else and they have as much right and obligation towards holy places in Saudi Arabia as anyone else including Pakistanis. The OWNER and the TAIKAIDHAR of these places are not only Saudis and Pakistanis who arrogate themselves as such.

Have fun, truth searcher, Desert Fox.

PS. By the way, he was a great General. Since you have named yourself after him, what would you think he would have advised Pakistan on the subject?

PPS. By the way, I hear that your PM even has personal interests there in Saudi Arabia, in the form of properties and steel mills. No wonder then.

 

[wiseone2]

i will leave that for my own people.

your dodging or behavior of West Pakistanis tells me it is Yahya Khan

 

[Umair Nawaz]

your dodging or behavior of West Pakistanis tells me it is Yahya Khan

i have told u why. Now buzz off.

 

[qamar1990]

The only point the diplomat has successfully made is, Pakistan remains under confusion, whether to join or not. This is one side a dream coming true for improving the nexus, Saudi-Turkish-Pakistan , but other hand the outcomes of this coalition will directly effect the Iran-Pak gas pipeline. Hence more import from Qatar and dependency via sea route.

i thought you might change your signature..lmao.. what happened to your "kafir pride"

 

[Screambowl]

i thought you might change your signature..lmao.. what happened to your "kafir pride"

I was request to change, otherwise no intention

 

[qamar1990]

I was request to change, otherwise no intention

ofcourse lol.....

 

[IND151]

Shah's Iran is dead..it was a great friend of us..

Since the 79 'revolution' Iran has been a pro India country.

Kindly elaborate...........

Indian source, great.

One Liner..................................Great

 

[Daneshmand]

@Desert Fox

I can't answer you there, since they have locked us out and it appears only anti-Iranian hatred is allowed in that thread.

Anyways, I had explained the whole situation for you in this thread in my above comment.

Egypt has already received quite large sums of money (tens of billions) and will receive much more. But they will not commit any troops there. They are in it just for money and will squeeze Saudis for whatever juice they can get out of them.

Saudis did not have time to think. The old king died and the Sudairi Seven family had to consolidate its power and position itself to transfer the seat of king to the sons of Sudairi Seven family. The rest of royal family is ofcourse not agreed and the military might have its own agenda. Then they had the problem of Iran being recognized as a nuclear threshold nation with huge implications on Arab street politics (Saudis have invested in their identity being anti-Shia and anti-Iranian and Iran gaining power will be seen as Saudis losing). Therefore they raised this flithstorm to counter internal dissent in Saudi Arabia.

Their objective was to push Pakistan into this furnace and sit back and enjoy their wealth and power. Pakistanis Generals, it appears saw through the smoke and mirrors of Saudi games.

They will certainly be defeated in Yemen. Though if they choose wisely and instead negotiate with Houthis, they might be able to save some face. Otherwise, it is going to get very ugly for them. They have been checkmated, but they have not realized it yet. Things moves so fast on the chess board, that their cognition has not yet caught up with the reality that has taken place.

 

[Desert Fox]

Their objective was to push Pakistan into this furnace and sit back and enjoy their wealth and power. Pakistanis Generals, it appears saw through the smoke and mirrors of Saudi games.

To be honest though, i think we will never know the reasons why the Pakistani military and civilian leadership abstained from joining the Saudi coalition.

Perhaps they feared public outcry against such a decision of involving Pakistan in someone else' war?

 

[Daneshmand]

To be honest though, i think we will never know the reasons why the Pakistani military and civilian leadership abstained from joining the Saudi coalition.

Perhaps they feared public outcry against such a decision of involving Pakistan in someone else' war?

Maybe. But when you are a General officer commanding, you have tremendous power at your disposal. If you have enough power to make Pakistan's parliament to vote unanimously against joining Saudis, then you have enough power and proxies and media persons in your pocket to sway things the other way around as well. So your decisions (at least theoretically) should be based on greater interests of the nation in terms of realpolitik.

I think, Pakistan's strategists saw things for what they are. Going into such conflicts is easy but extricating honorably from them is immensely difficult as Saudis will find out. Another behind the scenes force, imo, was China. They must have offered something(s) which has countered the Saudi offer. It might be in the form of more military hardware or financing the IP gas line or any number of other things.