Pakistan’s Yemeni war
Pakistan is inching toward an acknowledgement of its participation in the Saudi-led, American-backed military intervention in the civil war in Yemen. A fateful moment arises for India’s regional interests. Without doubt, the
remark attributed to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to the effect that his country will strongly respond to any threat to the security of Saudi Arabia prepares the ground for rationalizing a political decision that seems to have been already taken by him.
In fact, the Saudi media reports already count Pakistan as a participant in the ‘coalition’ intervening in Yemen and anticipate that the brunt of the ground operations will be borne by the Pakistani forces. The presence of the Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif and the chief of air force Sohail Aman at the meeting taken by Sharif in Islamabad on Thursday would suggest that the Pakistani military’s role will be substantial.
In retrospect, Sharif’s recent hurried trip to Riyadh falls into perspective. The Saudi King Salman summoned him to be told personally about Riyadh’s expectations of him in the period ahead. (See my blog
Saudi Arabia dusts up Pakistan ties.)
The Saudis have promised to bankroll the Pakistanis and the latter are duly gearing up to act as the watchdogs of the Saudi interests. Pakistan has no direct stakes in Yemen, but Sharif needs all the money King Salman can give.
If Delhi had seen subtleties in the Saudi policies to ‘downgrade’ ties with Pakistan, well, it was simply delusional. The Saudi-Pakistani alliance is as strong as ever – and continues to be irreplaceable for either side.
The Saudi-Pakistani alliance has traditionally enjoyed American blessing. Indeed, the forthcoming Pakistani military operations in Yemen will heavily draw on US intelligence inputs. Pakistan is poised to play yet another key role in the US’ regional strategies. Its credentials as a ‘moderate’ Sunni Muslim country with one of the strongest militaries in the Muslim world makes it the ideal partner for the US in the security of the petrodollar states in the Persian Gulf region, which is entering a turbulent period of transition.
The Saudi intervention in Yemen is going to be a prolonged affair. The sectarian dimension, the Houthis’ deep-rooted antipathy toward Saudi Arabia, the geographical proximity of the Houthi heartland with the Shi’ite dominated eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia, Saudi-Yemeni territorial disputes and the roots of antagonism between the two countries – all these impact the developing scenario. There will be a
Yemeni backlash at some point.
Unsurprisingly, thoughtful Pakistani voices are heard expressing disquiet about their country’s audacious march into the quicksands of Yemeni civil war and tribal politics (
hereand
here). But Sharif is unlikely to pay heed, as he is in no position to ignore a
diktat from the Saudi king – not only for political and economic reasons but also for personal reasons, given his family’s vast business interests in Saudi Arabia.
Yet, the involvement in Yemen becomes a distraction from the single-minded attention needed to fasten Pakistan’s internal security. Pakistan can ill afford such distraction, no matter the lure of the Saudi dole out. The Pakistani military is called upon to fight in a foreign country while at the same time continue with its counter-terrorist operations at home.
Pakistan is wading into Gulf politics. The
Saudi-Iranian tensions cast their shadow on Yemen and Islamabad is taking sides. It is bound to antagonize Tehran and it will have consequences. Pakistan’s power projection in Afghanistan may run into headwinds. Of course, the shared concerns of Iran and India in the Afghan situation need no reiteration and Delhi needs to have candid exchanges with Tehran.
At the end of the day, the Saudi military intervention in Yemen is a violation of international law. Riyadh hopes to elicit a UN Security Council mandate with the help of the US, France and Britain. Iran, on the other hand, has
lost no time to consult Russia.
Following a phone call by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to President Vladimir Putin,
Moscow has “stressed the urgency of an immediate cessation of hostilities and of stepping up efforts, including by the UN to develop options for a peaceful settlement of the conflict.” Russia is unlikely to endorse any US move to get the UN Security Council to legitimize the foreign military intervention in Yemen.
Foreign military intervention in a country’s civil war is fraught with risks as the civil war may mutate when foreign devils get involved and could take protean shapes. It is a near certainty that the civil war in Yemen
may spill over into Saudi Arabia as time passes and when that happens, Pakistani military will find itself as the Praetorian Guards of a decrepit regime.
Paradoxically, the Saudi offensive aims at weakening the Houthis, but the latter happen to the only credible check on the al-Qaeda affiliates present in Yemen. That is to say, the al-Qaeda is almost certainly the beneficiary. Meanwhile, the Islamic State has appeared in Yemen. In sum, Pakistan keeps on complaining that it is a victim of the US’ war on terrorism, and yet is eagerly offering itself once again as a ‘frontline’ state for financial considerations. Some countries never learn from history.
Delhi can draw satisfaction that Pakistan’s overreach in the Gulf will preoccupy the military leadership in Rawalpindi. The Pakistani military personnel are also involved in suppressing the Shi’ite agitation seeking democratic empowerment in Bahrain. And Pakistan getting caught up in the Arab Spring cannot be ruled out. Delhi should make use of this respite to its advantage.
Taking all things into consideration, India should take to the high grounds and call for a peaceful resolution of the political crisis in Yemen through discussions involving by the protagonists in the civil war. It should not hesitate to condemn the foreign military intervention in Yemen in contravention of the international law and the UN Charter. It should warn the world community that such unilateral intervention can have disastrous consequences, as happened in Libya.
Pakistan’s Yemeni war – Indian Punchline
