Blain
Both IAF & PAF don,t have records of spectacular use of AIR POWER to win any major conflict. be it 65 or 71.
Certainly nothing like Israeli record against Arabs in 6 day war in 1967 or the bekaa Valley victory of 82 kills to 1 or 2 arab kills.
Therefore i never ever listen to the usua rehetric of PAF pilots best in the world this and that. ESP SINCE the average PAF pilot is yet to fire a BVR missle even in training, stil flying 90% second gen fighters.
The difference is that even if our kill ratios are not like those of Israelis, we faced a much bigger adversary to a draw. This in itself is not an easy feat to achieve.
What i will argue is this/
PAF has been chasing india.s tail with regards to modernisation since the 1990s
India is constantly moving the goalposts
First with BVR , su30mki AND Phalcon Aawcs.
PAF has answered the BVR threat 500 amraams and the Awacs with SAAB.
BUT EVEN TODAY the PAFs 10 OR SO jf17 Thunders will not last long against 100-110 SU30mki..
I think you know that 10 or so JF-17s is not the total number planned. If IAF and India decide that they want to take advantage of the current imbalance in the air, they can try, I think the path of escalation is clear for Pakistan because Pakistan will not allow India the ability to carry out offensive operations in the air with impunity without significantly escalating the whole affair.
Acquisitions are a matter of timing. Suppliers were available to IAF so they bought certain capabilities first. PAF is catching up now. 1 or 500 AMRAAMs do not make a difference. What does make a difference is that IAF has to cater to a threat of a BVR equipped Air Force. That changes a lot of things.
If you want to talk about today, you will not launch a war because the rungs to full scale escalation are that much fewer because of Pakistan's inability to conventionally equip herself in the 90s. So there are other calculations at play which help Pakistan's case. While upgradation is a never ending process, it happens in cycles (its a global phenomena). India is in the middle of her cycle, Pakistan is starting on it. India will not keep on spending money and buying new toys forever. Pakistan will make sure that we get what we need to stick with our goals of minimum deterrence and also to ensure that our capabilities are able to counter the envisaged threats.
As for future well its simple if your neighbour spends 5 or 6 times wat you do for 10 years " theres only ever going to be one winner"
PAFs will not be able to live with INDIA,s massive military spending
SU30MKI or Phalcon is just the start i fear of a 10 year plan that will see huge $$$ invstment on india,s military power
Huge spending does not always win the day. Soviets were outspending the NATO and US by at least 20 percentage points throughout the 60s, 70s and 80s. Yet the US and NATO had enough deterrence in place to hold the Warsaw Pact to a draw during the 3 decades. The current situation is no different between Pakistan and India. Pakistan will always ensure that we have enough capacity in place to make a short war very difficult for India. Pakistan's tight fiscal condition will not remain the same forever so the assumption about not being able to keep up with our deterrence is fairly flawed.
Pakistan does not have any ambitious global plans. However what Pakistan is spending on and will be spending on will ensure that Pakistan is adequately defended.
Lastly, on the BVR issue. Most of the Pakistani pilots have not fired a BVR AAM, just the same as 99% of the IAF pilots. What you know is theoretical based on the performance envelopes documented by the manufacturers and you base your tactics around that. PAF is no different here because we do the same with the SD-10 and AIM-120 now. We ordered 10 training rounds back in 2005 for the AIM-120s. We started running operator level BVR courses back in 1986 once the VVS (Soviets) introduced the Fulcrum in Afghanistan. So to assume that BVR employment awareness in the PAF does not exist is a folly. The platforms are limited, yet the number will grow greatly in the next year or two.
