"That some of the attacks against NATO forces occur out of FATA does not equate to Pakistani institutions supporting the Taliban, nor is it in any way validation of the existence of a Quetta Shura or Karachi Shura..."
Nothing will validate such in your minds nor mine for that matter. The fact is that neither of us possess the intel that is read by our leaders.
Nonetheless, I think that those in Canada, Britain, and America with a need to know already DO KNOW enough to ascertain the existence and operation of these forces. For myself, it's easy to extrapolate Omar's existence in the Quetta region by virtue of the assuredness I possess about Haqqani's existence in Miran Shah...and I am assured.
You might argue the same but the truth from America's view is that if we're writing the cheques then your contentions are simply that. Contentions to construct a counter-narrative to relieve pressure internally. Nothing more.
Actually none of it now matters and we've evidently come to accept the existence of these forces on your soil. So much so that in areas such as Konar and Nuristan we will no longer consider them key nor outpost them as we've done for seven years. I'm unsure if I agree but McChrystal has determined that it's pointless and is willing to grant the taliban sanctuary in these areas.
That will likely affect you more than us. At least your proxies have achieved a modicum of the strategic space so commonly discussed. Further, it should remove any question of Indian intrigue from these areas unless the afghan taliban will assist the Pakistani taliban in establishing rear bases there and, further, facilitate the transit of Indian agents to assist the resupply of the Pakistani taliban in these newly-acquired rear logistics bases.
We simply don't see the benefit any longer of fighting an endless battle over lumber smuggling. You might see otherwise but to effect changes to such, you'll now need to convince the afghan government that it's critical they establish their writ via the ANA and ANP over these tractless, lawless, inaccessible, and inhospitable lands.
Good luck.
Further, I'd expect our good anti-narcotics work in these areas to be shortly reversed. Perhaps Nangahar and Khost too, depending upon how extensive our pullback becomes. I've postulated that I can't imagine that we'll abandon Asadabad, Jalalabad, and Khost cities to the taliban but I don't know for certain WHAT McChrystal has planned there. If we don't, they may simply be outposts of civilization until such time that the afghan government is prepared to begin extending its control deeper into the hinterlands.
You could replicate our decision and also continue ceding these lands adjacent to Nangahar, Konar, and Nuristan in your north. As you've mentioned, operations continue in Bajaur. To what objective, I'm unsure. It's terribly small and should likely have been brought under control by now, IMHO. That it hasn't, though, likely means it won't either. Not until the Afghan government sends forces into the adjacent provinces and begins taking back its lands.
In short, you'll now appreciate in full the value of sanctuary to an insurgency like never before.
Someday in the undetermined and distant future maybe that'll change. I think not. Were I A.Q., I'd be making my plans to move into new homes. Of course, I've personally believed for long that OBL is in Chitral but that move isn't terribly far for him. At present he isn't, if there, personally threatened. Others may be. They'll now have more options IMV.
We're sending more troops but they won't be operating under your command. Instead, it appears that our interests are centered on the population centers that offer the biggest bang per platoon and also the south where the Quetta shura doesn't exist.
As things deteriorate and more of NATO begins packing for home, I do anticipate Indian activity morphing into more than it's been. I haven't bought one penny of what you've been selling but that doesn't mean I won't in the future. As conditions change by our re-positioning and increasing drawdown of allied forces, they'll have both the need and the freedom to do what I've heretofore considered very unlikely.
I'm certain you've read vs doc's snide trolling assertions to what might come. They may actually be precient if not now fact. Whether they'll be enough to win the day, if and when, remains to be seen.
I don't anticipate P.A. operations in N. Waziristan nor in eastern Baluchistan. You now need those proxy armies as counterweights against an emerging bevy of enemies. It's entirely conceivable that you'll have wished your worst nightmares into being.
America has made many mistakes. Please read that closely. However, this is not a debating society and we aren't the only ones who've done so. Fortunately for us, we can make our retreat when we've acceded to the emerging reality. You won't. There was a time when your active assistance might have mattered but, like our reinforcements, I believe your actions come as too little too late.
Thanks.