Contrarian
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PAF will operate at least 96 F-16A/B MLU3 and F-16C/D Block 52+; although the IAF is inducting 150 Su-30MKIs - it will also retire at least 200-250 older aircraft. The F-16s would be armed with the best BVRAAM and WVRAAM systems and supported by Link 16 w/Erieye AEW&C, in a defensive scenario such a combination would be near impossible to break; even for something as giant and hyped as SU-30MKI. Do not discount the fact that as a Major Non-NATO ally the PAF is able to acquire used F-16A/B/C/D airframes and simply pay 15-20mn USD per unit to give them a CCIP or MLU3 upgrade. Such an advantage could be used quite heavily and can reinforce the F-16 fleet; and the PAF's F-16 fleet would be as good as half of NATO's fleet in terms of datalink and weapon systems.
Your forget that we have ordered the Phalcon AWACS, which are faar superior to the Erieye platforms! Which can supposedly jam the Erieye.
Not to mention the fact that for any AWAC to function properly , it needs to be in a area which has air superiority, sadly the pakistan airspace wont have airsuperiority of the PAF, which makes the Erieye, VERY vulnerable, most likely the PAF wont take it out. Even if they do, the Phalcon's would be waiting
You also forget the fact that we too have the latest BVRAAM and WVRAAM missles! and infact such missles are worthless if they are not supported by the fighters radar which has to be exceptionally good for this to work properly. Sadly even the new F-16 blk 52's lack this. the MKI has a monster radar which makes the WVR fights useless...it will pick and lock the F-16's and send BVR missiles. Also that the new MRCA's that we acquire, wont be the standard a/c's that every1 gets, they will be modified to a GREAT extent so as to make an MKI counterpart figuratatively. The best avionics will be put whether they be American, Israeli or French. The fighter would be made BETTER than the MKI , which itself is unparalelled in the region.
They might be split, but that would be a backward move in terms of integration; fighters are simply becoming more and more expensive to maintain, and air forces are moving towards decreasing the number of types they operate. For the IAF to split their MRCA between F/A-18E/F and MiG-35, two aircraft which are expensive to maintain and would require IAF to start from near or complete scratch to induct would be an expensive and very time consuming job. That would be going against trying to maintain parity with the PAF, because the risk is that if IAF finally inducted their twin-trio - the PAF might be moving onto 5th Generation aircraft.
The Mig 35 or the Mig OVT, wont require us to rehaul our facilities.It will be able to use the existing Mig 29 facilities with minimum modifications. yes the F/A-18 E/F will require us to create new facilities, but these a/c's procured will be in much lesser quantity. And mate, Pakistan's desire for a true 5th gen craft remains a pipe dream whereas the GOI has ALREADY been approached by the Su corp for its PAK-FA which the govt declined and is going to go with the Mig corp's 5th gen a/c as a JV.This means no export without India's permission. Thus China certainly wont be getting it. Pakistan as of now doesnt even have a 4.5 gen a/c.
The F/A-18E/F's disadvantage lies within the fact that it is expensive to maintain (in contrast to F-16E/F Desert Falcon or Mirage 2000-9) as well as very expensive to procure. Rafale is an entirely different aircraft from the Mirage 2000, the IAF will need to build the Rafale's infrastructure from complete scratch; and being the twin-engine French fighter it is, it is also expensive to procure and maintain. In fact, Flight International put the Super Hornet's and Rafale's unit costs at $90-100mn and $140mn+ respectively.
The F/A-18 is one of the best Naval a/c's available today, and we have ordered around 200 a/c's. So maybe 126 mig 35 and the rest F-18 for the Navy! They are superb at the carriers and are ideally suited for that purpose.
Dont forget we also have a Carrier comming in with many Mig 29's upgraded! and we also have another carrier whose construction began ages back apart from the 1 Carrier that we already operate. So the F-18's maybe JUST what is required. So the ability to attack with lethality from the sea's too.
To be honest, IAF's better bet would be induct a huge number of Mirage 2000s and upgrade them to -5Mk2 or -9 standards; while diverting their MRCAs to a single type - may it be Super Hornet, MiG-35, Rafale or Eurofighter.
The J-10 will be able to counter the MiG-35, Su-30MKI and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet if given the adequate avionics, ECM/EW suite and radar; as well as adequate weapon-systems and datalink w/AEW&C coverage. The J-10 is China's base concept for its future 4.5 Generation Super J-10/J-10C. However if IAF does procure Rafale or F/A-18E/F, then it is likely the PAF would take the financial risk and procure a limited number of Eurofighters or Rafales (like it did with the Mirage IIIs in the mid-1960s).
The J-10 wont in any way be able to counter the MKI or Mig 35 (remember, it wont be the std Mig 35!, highly diff from the original like the Su 30 that China has(4th gen) and the Su 30MKI(which ALREADY IS true 4.5 gen)) as both have superior avionics and will get further improvements as time progesses.