I don't like the Odds of Plebiscite in Kashmir being in Pak favour. (Opinion).

[M.SAAD]

@Azad-Kashmiri, If a plebiscite in Azad Kashmir happens, what do you think would be the likely outcome ?

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Actually, thanks to Indian Media propaganda and all, they've made their population and Muslims believe that there is a stong Shia-Sunni divide in Pak, and labelled Shias as the victims ..


and Indian Muslims have fallen for it, so its impact has also reached Kashmiri Shia Muslims .

Indian media propaganda? Whom are you trying to fool?

Shia-Sunni divide is Pakistani Govt backed with State support/creation of anti-Shia militant groups

As mentioned in another post :

¶9. (C) The Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) was formed in 1985 in Jhang, Punjab by anti-Shia clerics. This banned terrorist organization is focused on sectarian violence and the group was originally supported by Zia-ul-Haq's government in a move to counter Shia Iran's influence in Pakistan. The funding for SSP comes from both external and local sources such as the trader-merchant class in Jhang. SSP was responsible for the rise in sectarian violence in the 1980s and 1990s. SSP advocates Deobandi ideology and has served as the basic ISLAMABAD 00002576 003 OF 004 ideological and militant birthing ground for other militant groups. The group was linked with the 1997 attack on former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, and they take credit for killing several Shia doctors in Karachi in 2001. Recently, the SSP has resurged in Southern Punjab and has links with other militant outfits. Qari Hussain, the most feared deputy of Tehreek Taliban Pakistan's (TTP) recently killed leader, Baitullah Mehsud, came out of SSP and many of the TTP's foot soldiers are from SSP ranks. (Note. The SSP is also believed to be behind the violence against Christians in Punjab in late August and early September 2009. End Note.)

¶10. (C) Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) grew out of SSP and was founded in Bhakkar, South Punjab. The Deobandi organization was initially focused on the elimination of Shias, but after 9/11 its attention shifted to fighting the war on terror against the United States. According to Siddiqa, LeJ was the first militant group to send recruits to Al-Qaeda, through LeJ's contacts with wealthy Arabs who visited Southern Punjab. LeJ has strong connections with prominent terrorists, including Khaled Sheikh Mohammad and Abu Musab al Zarqawi. The LeJ and Taliban currently have linked networks that allow the Taliban to carry out terrorist attacks in Punjab with LeJ assistance. According to Amir Rana, Director of Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, LeJ also has powerful networks in Karachi and Quetta.

Cable reference id: #09ISLAMABAD2576

Interesting 20 years down the line, given that TTP leader comes from SSP and recent death of Punjab minister because of an attack by LEJ, anti-Shia policies of Pakistan have done more harm to Pakistani majority citizens (Sunnis) than Shias.

Plus, not to forget, the Pakistani Govt protected group Lashkar-e-Taiba has strong anti-Shia opinions.

There is a specific reason why Iranians are not fond of Pakistan, the above would be one of the reasons.

 

[Tipu7]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India, some Population is the region is undecided and just wanna get on with their lives, so that'd be Swing votes .


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

Kashmir cannot stay independent ...... accept it .......

Going with Pakistan is better to go for India ......
I got friend from IOK & Azad Kashmir ...... there is huge difference in both.

 

[Rocketman]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India, some Population is the region is undecided and just wanna get on with their lives, so that'd be Swing votes .


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

This post shows a very balanced realities in the state of JnK.

Actually pakistan's love for kashmiris is nothing but a way to hurt india and take revenge of creation of bangladesh. JnK until 1980 was terror free and it was an important tourist destination in india. It was only in 1980 pakistan suddenly developed its love of kashmir and kashmiris which was not out of love for kashmiris but to take revenge from india for 1971. If pakistanis ever loved kashmir, they would have never gifted Askai Chin to China.

Pakistan has spent so much resources in creating troubles in kashmir over so many decades and now to accept an independent kashmir is not an option for them.

Only solid solution is to accept the ground realities and convert LOC into International Border. India now has no territorial claims over P-O-K and Askai Chin, but accepting this solution will not be easy for pakistan as this will make jehadi outfits go out of business and will create even more internal troubles in pakistan.

 

[dev_moh]

So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

I would tell you something from my own experience. I started my college in 2006. There were total 4 kashmiri boys in our batch of b.tech . We used to stay in same hostel. In starting days they never interacted much. but slowly got mixed up with us locals. With time they started opening up. when asked about terorist issues and about merging with Pakistan.
They said that they wanted the kashmir to be an independent country. They neither wanted to stay with India nor with Pakistan.
but as time passed they became as much Indian as we were. By the time our Btech got completed, they didnt wanted a separate Kashmir, They were happy Indians.
So, slowly and slowly this idependent issue is dying.
As the interaction is increasing b/w kashmiris and rest of Indians.
And, interaction is also increasing dramatically. At present, more than 100 kashmiris are studying in my university.

 

[dray]

Eje gelo-gelo rob utheche

Uthbe na? Ora saat dashak juddho kore nijeder deshke gaday pathiyeche, ekhon jodi keu bole je Kashmirira oder chay na...tahole buke to bajbei...poschaddesheo!

 

[haviZsultan]

The Azad Kashmiris I have noticed want Kashmir to go to Pakistan. But the Kashmiris in Indian occupied kashmir and parts of Jammu want independence with some favoring India and some Pakistan. It should have happened long ago. The muslims there have been under Indian sphere of influence for long and so do not see the benefits of joining Pakistan.

 

[hussain0216]

Easy Pakistan victory

Azad Kashmir will be majority pro Pakistan by a big margin with a small independent section

Indian kashmir will be mixed with pro Pakistan and independence sharing in muslim majority valley and mixed in other areas


Overall unification with Pakistan will be easy outcome

The indians also know this hence so much fear and hesitation to hold a plebiscite

 

[dravidianhero]

Where did you get that Shia will not favour Pakistan? Pakistan has the largest population of Shias outside Iran. And I have many shia friends and they are as happy with Pakistan as any sunni

You will not find even1 percent shias in India who favour Pakistan..even 1 percent is a big number.

 

[rubyjackass]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).

Fair assessment. But this is not news for Kashmiris or Indians(those who matter, like the bureaucrats and politicians). It was very strange to see Pakistan claiming J&K first on legal basis and then on basis of the prospective result of a plebiscite. But somehow we got used to the Pakistani denial. This is just one of the many loopholes in the Pakistan's game plan.

There is virtually no chance of a plebiscite ever happening in Kashmir even if India is to win hands down.

Why not? I agree, but I just want to know your reasons.

 

[Shamain]

@Azad-Kashmiri, If a plebiscite in Azad Kashmir happens, what do you think would be the likely outcome ?

Ajk wants pakistan

So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..

@Areesh just this above para shows how much kiddish his analysis is.

Lastly, why wud pakistan be redfaced????
Dude pakistan always supported them cuz since the begnning kashmir wanted to join pakistan ,but india forcefully took the terriotry and refuses to hold pleb on the grounds that pakistani troops must vacate the territory as she is the intruding force. Withdrawing troops is the part where pakistan and india dont agree ,pakistan fears india will take control of ajk n gb and will rig the results ,india says she wont allow pleb unless pk troops move out.

In all those past decades naturally due to the terrorims issue pakistan faced etc etc pkistan might have lost some support in iok but pakistan's stance since day 1 from 48 uptil now remained same, that ppl of iok must decide for themsleves and no one shud interfere in their decision making.

Pakistan has always stood againstt their oppression and raised voice for them and inshaAllah will continue to do so as long as they are occupied.

So there is no red faced part for pakistan here. If j and k goes independent thats perfectly fine.

As of pleb, if it happens then ,gb will also vote. So well in simple words first of all let the pleb be held on fair terms and then accept the outcomes.

If ajk chooses to go independent iwill move to pakistan.

@Paksanity @fakhre mirpur @engineer saad

 

[war&peace]

In India Shia and Sunni are very different in their outlook. They don't mix much.

Because you hindu devdassies are trying to divide them and it is not so difficult to frighten a few maulvis and a few zakir to get such fatwas against each other. Shias in Pakistan follow Imam Khomeni in Iran who issued a fatwa that abusing companions of Holy Prophet is Haram and this removes any friction between shias and sunnis. Furthermore, I being a sunni, have a lot of respect for all their Imams and this very common in Pakistan. Only few foreign funded maulvis and Zakirs were trying to create a chasm between the communities but in vain. Pakistan even abstained from participating in any war against Yemeni houthis so that the ummah we do not contribute to this fitna. I hope the shia Muslims of india are aware of that. Anyways Kashmir is not a part of india and Kashmiri shias are with Pakistan

 

[nForce]

The Azad Kashmiris I have noticed want Kashmir to go to Pakistan. But the Kashmiris in Indian occupied kashmir and parts of Jammu want independence with some favoring India and some Pakistan. It should have happened long ago. The muslims there have been under Indian sphere of influence for long and so do not see the benefits of joining Pakistan.

What are the benefits ?

 

[Usama78]

You will not find even1 percent shias in India who favour Pakistan..even 1 percent is a big number.

I dont know about India, but I have lots of Shia Friends. I have no shame in saying, I find all of them more patriotic to Pakistan then me. If I say something against Pakistan or Pak Army(jst as a joke), one of em would simple give me a 30 min long lecture.

As for the thread.
Q#1 : Who would let the plebiscite happen?
Q#2 : If it does, who is gonna give them the option of being independent? I guess it would be either Pakistan or India?
Q#3 : Did you consider the population of Azad Kashmir in your research?
Q#4 : I doubt if all the sikhs would vote for India, no?

 

[Kaniska]

You know friends...I am just thinking, Modi should create a legacy of his own..He should start taking up the Kashmir issue, and let us offer about UN referendum..I am sure there will be interesting results if choices are given in J&K to choose only India and Pakistan...Of course India should be worried if independent Kashmir choice is provided..But if independent Kashmir choice is not there, then India should offer this choice to J&K and before that, China should return the China Occupied Kashmir on the Eastern part and return the portion that it got from Pak.