I don't like the Odds of Plebiscite in Kashmir being in Pak favour. (Opinion).

[ito]

There is virtually no chance of a plebiscite ever happening in Kashmir even if India is to win hands down.

 

[war&peace]

There you go.

Jammu and Kashmir - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Division % Area % Population Population % Muslim % Hindu % Sikh % Buddhist and other
Jammu 25.93% 43.7% 4,430,191 30.69% 65.23% 3.57% 0.51%
Jammu and Kashmir 100% 100% 10,143,700 66.97% 29.63% 2.03% 1.36%
Kashmir 15.73% 53.9% 5,476,970 97.16% 1.84% 0.88% 0.11%
Ladakh 58.33% 2.3% 236,539 47.40% 6.22% – 45.87%










And this doesn't mention the # of Shia population among Muslims , whom vote also wouldn't favour Pak.

Where did you get that Shia will not favour Pakistan? Pakistan has the largest population of Shias outside Iran. And I have many shia friends and they are as happy with Pakistan as any sunni

 

[mufti]

I'm fine with Kashmiris gaining independence. We only care about their oppression from the Brahmin state.

Why did we attacked Kashmir in the first place then in 1948 ? Kashmir belongs to Pakistan and we are the owner of it, be it by hook or by crook.

 

[M.SAAD]

Where did you get that Shia will not favour Pakistan? Pakistan has the largest population of Shias outside Iran. And I have many shia friends and they are as happy with Pakistan as any sunni

Actually, thanks to Indian Media propaganda and all, they've made their population and Muslims believe that there is a stong Shia-Sunni divide in Pak, and labelled Shias as the victims ..


and Indian Muslims have fallen for it, so its impact has also reached Kashmiri Shia Muslims .

 

[ito]

Where did you get that Shia will not favour Pakistan? Pakistan has the largest population of Shias outside Iran. And I have many shia friends and they are as happy with Pakistan as any sunni

In India Shia and Sunni are very different in their outlook. They don't mix much.

 

[Pulsar]

So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

You hit the nail on the head! In a poll conducted by Chatham House, it revealed that on average 44% of people in Pakistani-administered Kashmir favored independence, compared with 43% in Indian-administered Kashmir. But in the predominantly Hindu Jammu division to the south, support is under 1%. How did they arrive at these figures?

The weighted mean for independence between almost 74 percent in Kashmir and 1 percent in Jammu (and around 30 percent in Ladakh) came down roughly to 43 percent overall in Jammu and Kashmir, while support for independence was around 44 percent in 'Azad Kashmir'.


In presenting his findings, Bradnock of Chatham House who conducted the polls rightly concluded that plebiscite based on the UN resolutions, with India and Pakistan as the only options, will no longer solve the Kashmir issue.

Much of the India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir is in reality symbolic in nature with little substantive interests involved (except for the issue of water for Pakistan, which can be legally settled. It is a fairly well known fact that the people of Kashmir are of little consequence to Pakistan. The main issue is water.

But the million dollar question is: Would an independent Kashmir be viable? The simple answer is NO!

Here's why....


Reasons why an independent Kashmir is not viable.


1) Located in one of the most unstable regions in the world in terms of terrorism.


2) Could only set themselves up for an invasion from any one of possibly 3 neighboring countries.

3) Independence doesn’t guarantee stability.

4) Independence doesn’t guarantee safety.

5) A predominantly Muslim nation could fall prey to an extreme form of Islam and set up a strict Sharia Law society like the TTP/ISIS aim to establish.

6) Not economically viable since there are no industries or natural resources. Agriculture and tourism cannot sustain a country’s economy. Investors would think twice before investing in a land locked country. Independence doesn’t guarantee economic prosperity.

7) How would the country even generate tax income in an area that has no resources?

8) How would they find resources for raising an army for internal as well as external threats? A minimum of three divisions would be required and probably an indep armored brigade. Cost? At least $ 10 billion! Where is the money? Or where would it come from? How is this force going to be sustained and maintained in perpetuity?

9) Kashmir is predominantly rural and makes nearly all of its paltry income from agriculture in a region as rocky as the Himalayas. There won’t be much money available to sustain a government in Kashmir and have enough funds for education, infrastructure, healthcare, defense, etc. It would not be able to fund such projects with the limited sources of income without running up monstrous debts which would quickly cripple the economy of the nation, scaring away investors, resulting in perpetual poverty, and finally resulting in a collapse.

At present India sinks into Kashmir almost Rs 50,000 crores a year ($9 billion) on subsidies, aids and grants. How would an independent Kashmir sustain itself without this enormous amount being pumped into Kashmir’s economy every year? Would Pakistan be able to lend this enormous amount annually as aid? Probably China? No way!

I would love to get a counter point to this from the separatists who spare no effort in hankering for an 'independent' Kashmir.

 

[ito]

Actually, thanks to Indian Media propaganda and all, they've made their population and Muslims believe that there is a stong Shia-Sunni divide in Pak, and labelled Shias as the victims ..


and Indian Muslims have fallen for it, so its impact has also reached Kashmiri Shia Muslims .

It is not the Indian media...rarely does Indian media broach on this subject...it is more the Sunnis attitude regarding Shias that has to be blamed.

 

[war&peace]

In India Shia and Sunni are very different in their outlook. They don't mix much.

In Pakistan, the normal people don't even both about sect and there are many mixed marriages. One of my ex was shia and fasted according to her timings.

 

[M.SAAD]

It is not the Indian media...rarely does Indian media broach on this subject...it is more the Sunnis attitude regarding Shias that has to be blamed.

Some incidents are there for sure from hardliners on both sides, but generally masses of the 2 communities mix well in Pakistan, and don't really care if one is Shia or Sunni ..


Things are blown out of proportion in the media .

 

[ito]

In Pakistan, the normal people don't even both about sect and there are many mixed marriages. One of my ex was shia and fasted according to her timings.

In India...a fatwa by sunni cleric will be followed by an opposite fatwa by a shia cleric...In general among muslims...shias gravitate more towards BJP than sunnis.

Some incidents are there for sure from hardliners on both sides, but generally masses of the 2 communities mix well in Pakistan, and don't really care if one is Shia or Sunni ..


Things are blown out of proportion in the media .

There is a Shia..Sunni divide...and it is a reality....at least in India.

 

[third eye]

Plus: Indians & Pakistanis , try not to troll in this thread ..


Lets have a sensible debate.

At the outset Plebiscite is not going to happen.

Assuming it does, Independence was never an option.

None of the 525 Princely states were given this option.

 

[M.SAAD]

At the outset Plebiscite is not going to happen.

Assuming it does, Independence was never an option.

None of the 525 Princely states were given this option.

If Independence will not be an Option then Pak would likely win in the Kashmir Valley, harsh truth .

 

[Whazzup]

@M.SAAD don't take their word for it its easy to talk like that on facebook with someone but ground reality is kashmiris can't run a land lock country for a day on their on and what is the guarantee that 1947 incident won't be repeated again.

Truth is all the practical Kashmiris supports either India or Pakistan .

 

[Uzair Shafiq [Босс]]

If it decides to be an independant state we shall support it
and make our friendship deeper then the one we share with turkey and china.
Higher then the sky's of mars and lower then pit of despair.

 

[M.SAAD]

@M.SAAD don't take their word for it its easy to talk like that on facebook with someone but ground reality is kashmiris can't run a land lock country for a day on their on and what is the guarantee that 1947 incident won't be repeated again.

Truth is all the practical Kashmiris supports either India or Pakistan .

Just discussing Hypothetical situation here, the thread is more about the 'Pak odds in case of Plebiscite' .

If it decides to be an independant state we shall support it
and make our friendship deeper then the one we share with turkey and china.
Higher then the sky's of mars and lower then pit of despair.

lol yeah !