In my opinion, China will not be doing anything in near future. Apart from rhetoric from all concerned, not much will be done by the belligerent nations here.
All the navies are undertaking the right to navigate in SCS and China is not doing much about it, militarily. In the meantime, the capacity building of all stake holders will continue.
A very pertinent question has been raised by a member, can China afford to be seen as ignoring a treaty to which it is a party, and afford to not be seen as the pre-eminent power which is able to settle its disputes with its neighbours?
While majority of members here have posted about the relative economic strength of China as also the rapid advances it has made in military technology as also modernisation of its forces, one will still be hard pressed to claim that China is yet in a position wherein it can take on the rest of the world powers.
The major principle here which is being overlooked by members and NOT the Chinese leadership, is the fact that there is a convergence in the 'freedom of navigation' thought process of major powers, be it US, France, UK, Germany or immediate neighbours of China like Japan, Australia, India. Even Russia has a stake in the same, as it too uses these lines to make its presence felt in the Indian Ocean Region.
Taken collectively, the economic and military clout of this 'convergence of interest' derived group exceeds the Chinese economic and military might by many times. These powers will obviously continue to traverse the waters, increasingly in strength and sync with each other and with an increasing intent to enforce it if there is indeed a ratcheting up of the stakes in terms of military enforcement by China, and until and unless China is really willing to go to war over this issue, nothing much will come apart from near run ins, claims and counter claims, and a system of capacity building of neighbours of China with an aim to bridge the military technological gap in order to keep up the pressure on China.
These tactics have been employed earlier too, and quite effectively, and the result was the end of USSR.
"We"? YOU are nothing more or less than a single noob poster on this forum. Who do you think or claim that you are speaking for? For starters, show some history examples from, let's say, the past 500 years, to illustrate your claims.
I will post Indian claims to SCS then (the Cholas controlled it briefly)
And YOU understand war ? Do you even know the recoil of a .22 ?
You think? Out of xBox or PS, I doubt it..
Please read the above post.
Slowly this time.
He won't get it.
I always believe that either Vietnam or india will be the instigators in case of a military conflict in the SCS. The US will provide all the logistics and intelligence. The US is too clever to get into a direct conflict with China at this point.
No.India is not going to get into a confrontation with China nor China with India.
However, we shall continue the capacity building of Vietnam and enhance their ability to respond effectively to any threats. In this regards, you have to take into account a trend - in Myanmar, India lost ground when it decided to agree to US request to not deal with military junta. This allowed Chinese to gain an edge, the policy was immediately reversed, India effectively engaged the junta and diplomatic currency was used to ensure that US changed its policy to what it is today. That there has been progress as a democratic nation was an add on. Add the Indian diplomatic push with US over Iran and now Vietnam, and the change in US policies towards these nations.
There is a trend, where in India has been using its diplomatic currency to encourage US policy modifications ...
